The Ottomans win their 1877-1878 war with Russia

CaliGuy

Banned
What if the Ottoman Empire won its 1877-1878 war with Russia?

Would Russia try again to liberate the Balkans from Ottoman rule at some future point in time? Or would Russia have permanently ceded the Balkans to the Ottomans and focused on expansion elsewhere?

Also, without the spread of nationalism in southeastern Europe (Romania and the Balkans), would both the Ottoman Empire and Austria-Hungary have been less vulnerable to break-up than they were in our TL?

Any thoughts on all of this?
 
If the ottomans win, then Russia's rise to the attention of the world stage is butterflied away, and the country remains roughly as desirable for an alliance as OTL Italy (at least for the foreseeable time, as Russia can, after the defeat, either reform or have potential reforms drowned by angered aristocrats).
With the balkans mostly unavailable for squabbling over, the Three Emperors' League has better chances of surviving. If the League survives for long enough, we could see an earlier franco-british alliance. But i'm unsure about which alliance system the ottomans will want to join.
Now, with the ottomans having proven themselves as "not as sick as people expected", we could see some further muscle-flexing on their part. I can imagine an alliance of islamic nations under ottoman suzerainty -- Oman-Muscat and Aceh (the northern tip of Sumatra) are a given to be members of it. The arabian desert could become turkish territory.
A stronger Turkey also means quite a few butterflies in Africa -- Egypt most probably goes back into the ottoman embrace (the country had drowned itself in debt when it tried to modernize quickly) instead of being colonized, which also means that the ottoman position in Lybia is strengthened. I can see the ottomans propping up a few african states face the colonial empires -- most probably Bornu, Ethiopia, dervish Somalia, and Darfur. A state in place of the OTL Central African Republic is also possible. The Sokoto Caliphate and the Zanzibar Sultanate (with its coast in Tanzania) can also be saved, but they cannot count on the ottomans alone to pull it off.
In the balkans, the ottomans preserve their borders. Greece, seeing no opportunities to expand, could become a begrudged ottoman ally. Romania can become a neutral buffer state. But the biggest problem the empire will face is ethnic diversity -- could they become a federated state, in order to preserve their integrity?
 
Last edited:
Ottoman Empire would be much better than OTL, thats certain. IOTL their just war indemnity payments costed %40 of their budget for 30 years. Also ITTL no losing valuable lands like Bulgaria and no nearly 1 million refugee, so without this economic problems, I think Ottomans would have had better infrastracture and more educated people(IOTL Abdulhamit focused education).
Also check this out, there is an extensive discussion about matter.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If the ottomans win, then Russia's rise to the attention of the world stage is butterflied away, and the country remains roughly as desirable for an alliance as OTL Italy (at least for the foreseeable time, as Russia can, after the defeat, either reform or have potential reforms drowned by angered aristocrats).

OK. However, could this ironically result in a better Russian performance in the Russo-Japanese War if this defeat spurs Russia to implement reforms?

With the balkans mostly unavailable for squabbling over, the Three Emperors' League has better chances of surviving. If the League survives for long enough, we could see an earlier franco-british alliance. But i'm unsure about which alliance system the ottomans will want to join.

Wouldn't the Ottomans try joining the Franco-British alliance? After all, they wouldn't want to get dismembered by Russia, now would they?

Now, with the ottomans having proven themselves as "not as sick as people expected", we could see some further muscle-flexing on their part. I can imagine an alliance of islamic nations under ottoman suzerainty -- Oman-Muscat and Aceh (the northern tip of Sumatra) are a given to be members of it. The arabian desert could become turkish territory.

Aceh is very far away, no?

However, the rest of this sounds plausible.

A stronger Turkey also means quite a few butterflies in Africa -- Egypt most probably goes back into the ottoman embrace (the country had drowned itself in debt when it tried to modernize quickly) instead of being colonized, which also means that the ottoman position in Lybia is strengthened.

Couldn't Britain still make a move on Egypt in this TL, though?

I can see the ottomans propping up a few african states face the colonial empires -- most probably Bornu, Ethiopia, dervish Somalia, and Darfur. A state in place of the OTL Central African Republic is also possible. The Sokoto Caliphate and the Zanzibar Sultanate (with its coast in Tanzania) can also be saved, but they cannot count on the ottomans alone to pull it off.

Would Ottoman aid be enough to save any of these states (other than Ethiopia, which survived even without the help of the Ottomans), though?

In the balkans, the ottomans preserve their borders. Greece, seeing no opportunities to expand, could become a begrudged ottoman ally. Romania can become a neutral buffer state.

All of this appears to sound realistic.

But the biggest problem the empire will face is ethnic diversity -- could they become a federated state, in order to preserve their integrity?

What were the views of the Ottoman leadership in regards to federalization during this time?
 
Aceh is very far away, no?

The Ottoman government could send goods and supplies to the Acehnese in their fight against the Dutch, though that would require the aid of local smugglers and blockade runners to pass them on under the colonial forces. It would also make the Ottomans care more for extraterritorial possessions; I can see a Somali port or two gain protectorate status for their ships.
 
OK. However, could this ironically result in a better Russian performance in the Russo-Japanese War if this defeat spurs Russia to implement reforms?
Not immediately.
But, still, if the Balkans are blocked away from Russia's hands, the Tsar may decide to focus on Asia instead.
Wouldn't the Ottomans try joining the Franco-British alliance? After all, they wouldn't want to get dismembered by Russia, now would they?
If the ottomans believe they can hold out on their own, they'll most likely decide for a third-way position. But a british-ottoman "appeasement alliance" is possible if the ottomans decide to move into Egypt.
Aceh is very far away, no?
So was Amsterdam from Jakarta. What i said is that the ottomans would provide the acehnese with moral and political support.
If the Aceh War still happens ITTL, i'd expect the ottomans to covertly ship weapons to the acehnese and condemn the dutch in the diplomatic stage.
Couldn't Britain still make a move on Egypt in this TL, though?
While the Suez Canal was sure vital for communication with India, the british could estabilish sanctions and a blockade on the ottoman economy if Istanbul suddenly decides to nationalize the canal. Plus, re-annexing Egypt would mean taking over its debt responsibility.
Even IOTL, british occupation of Egypt was a hard task.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...french-egypt-plausability-and-effects.315766/
Would Ottoman aid be enough to save any of these states (other than Ethiopia, which survived even without the help of the Ottomans), though?
Probably yes.
There's also the propaganda question -- with "a bunch of backwards mosulems", or the "sick man of Europe", defeating an european force, the ideology of the "white man's burden" would face dificulties in asserting itself.
What were the views of the Ottoman leadership in regards to federalization during this time?
There was the ideology of Ottomanism -- that the citizens of the ottoman empire were "ottomans" first and turks, arabs, bulgarians, greeks, albanians, bosniaks, serbs, kurds, and/or armenians second.
Perhaps it could grow if constitutionalism suffers no major blows. But it could clash with the aforemented "pan-islamic" policy, unless the ottoman government is good in rhethoric. Still, ethnic minorities would most probably decide to cooperate with the Sublime Porte at minimum and engage in peaceful "pride"-type resistance at maximum, as there would be no nearby european powers to liberate them directly.
 
Last edited:
OK. However, could this ironically result in a better Russian performance in the Russo-Japanese War if this defeat spurs Russia to implement reforms?
Even better if butterflies save Alexander II.
Couldn't Britain still make a move on Egypt in this TL, though?

Would Ottoman aid be enough to save any of these states...?
Not sure this is the direction you're looking for, but altered alliances likely means a different Scramble for Africa; if Germany didn't take part of East Arrica, creating a massive contiguous British East Africa, that would give Zanzibar a serious shot of surviving as a client state. Plus if Egypt does still fall to British influence, TTL just might get that Cape-Cairo rail line, which has pretty big implications in itself.
 
Top