What would happen to the Ottoman Empire if the Central Powers win? Would it collapse or survive? How would it survive if it is meant to? Or how does it collaspse? And would Germany intervene somehow? Where do Atatruk and the Arab Revolts come in?
The Ottoman Empire in a Central Powers victorious world
- Thread starter The Federalist
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Anaxagoras
Banned
Ataturk's rise to power was only made possible by the conditions that existed in the Ottoman Empire after the peace. Had the Central Powers emerged victorious, my guess is that he would be hailed as one of Turkey's best generals, with Enver Pasha setting our to discredit him so as to eliminate a potential political rival.
Neroon
Banned
Which could of course go either way. We'd really need to write 2 seperate timelines for the Ottomans. One with Ataturk seizing power anyway. One with Pasha staying in charge and Ataturk being retired.
Either way with any luck an Ottoman Empire victorious in WW1 will mean, that the Wahabists will not gain control of Mecca or the OTL Saudi oil fields.
Keenir
Banned
I'm not sure I understand...what do you mean "if it is meant to"? *curious*
Ataturk would likely be coopted.
the revolting Arabs would likely either be coopted, quashed, or made into a quasi-independent client state. (can't let go of the Holy Cities, not and stay Caliph)
Keenir
Banned
I have a feeling the Emperor might let his daughter marry Mustafa Kemal.
(at least in OTL, she said he was a rather dashing fellow)
and in OTL, and possibly this ATL too, Mustafa Kemal was the only Turkish officer never defeated in battle. there's political advantage to be found there.
It means if it can survive and/or if it can play any role in this ATL's future as as a single undivided Ottoman Empire.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
I think it the CP won, Mustafa Kemal would be just another general. He was one of the better ones, but by no means the only one - there were several just as talented as he.
Once the war is over, it will be impossible to maintain the CUP dictatorship and the government will have to return to its liberal-democratic path. Kemal's dictatorship and personality cult were only possible due to the extreme circumstances and his equally extreme success.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
The Ottomans were leary of letting people marry their daughters - Enver got a princess because he forced it. Kemal was refused a similar request, which some people think is a source of his hostility towards the dynasty.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
If the CP win, the basis for a peace will be a return to the territorial status quo ante. I don't see any other option. Ottoman territorial losses were actually pretty slight before the very end of the war, mostly due to Allenby's campaign, which entailed too man troops to be spared for a secondary front if the war was going really poorly.
If the war ends before a Russian collapse, the Ottomans will probably not end up with any additional territory - possibly they will get the Dodecanese back, maybe Lemnos and/or a couple of other strategic islands, and maybe Kars and Ardahan from the Russians - maybe at the extreme even Cyprus.
The status of Egypt would be interesting and could go any number of ways. Maybe a return to the pre-War situation but with German paramountcy instead of British under Ottoman sovereignty.
If the war ends AFTER a Russian collapse, the Ottomans are going to go for a large portion of the Caucasus and Iranian Azerbaijan. In OTL they took Baku, so in a victory situation I don't think they would get any less.
The big losers would be the Hashemites, the Saudis, and the Kuwaitis. Success is a big boost to prestige, and I don't see many problems facing Ottoman restoration. They maintained control of Medina and Yemen, so little pockets in Arabia won't pose many problems to the battle-hardened army.
The CUP triumvirate won't be able to maintain its dictatorship as the stress of war ends and the economy begins resuming normal activity. In OTL Turkey was totally devastated and spent decades rebuilding - in this situation you'll have a much more dyanamic economy - the Capitulations having been abolished, and a real chance at become at least a regional power. Maybe in the future a pretty serious one.
If the war ends before a Russian collapse, the Ottomans will probably not end up with any additional territory - possibly they will get the Dodecanese back, maybe Lemnos and/or a couple of other strategic islands, and maybe Kars and Ardahan from the Russians - maybe at the extreme even Cyprus.
The status of Egypt would be interesting and could go any number of ways. Maybe a return to the pre-War situation but with German paramountcy instead of British under Ottoman sovereignty.
If the war ends AFTER a Russian collapse, the Ottomans are going to go for a large portion of the Caucasus and Iranian Azerbaijan. In OTL they took Baku, so in a victory situation I don't think they would get any less.
The big losers would be the Hashemites, the Saudis, and the Kuwaitis. Success is a big boost to prestige, and I don't see many problems facing Ottoman restoration. They maintained control of Medina and Yemen, so little pockets in Arabia won't pose many problems to the battle-hardened army.
The CUP triumvirate won't be able to maintain its dictatorship as the stress of war ends and the economy begins resuming normal activity. In OTL Turkey was totally devastated and spent decades rebuilding - in this situation you'll have a much more dyanamic economy - the Capitulations having been abolished, and a real chance at become at least a regional power. Maybe in the future a pretty serious one.
Hapsburg
Banned
On one TL here, I forget whose, I came across an interesting idea:
The Arab revolt is cut short when the Ottoman Sultan makes a deal with the Arab leaders, semi-federalizes the Empire, and transforms it into an Turk-Arab dual monarchy, like Austria-Hungary; at the same time, A-H progresses to a fully federal system. IIRC, the guy had the Hashemites, Kuwaitis, and Saudis take "areas of influence" in the Arab half of the Empire, like China's warlords.
Keenir
Banned
ah. I guess I was extrapolating from teh fact that a Princess can only inherit a sanjak, never the entire empire.
That would have to be pretty extreme. Cyprus was British
Theoretically, it was still part of the Ottoman Empire and given victory for the Central Powers they would probably demand it back. Whether they did, or as as suggested above, the Germans take over, will depend on how badly the British have done. At very least Berlin would get the French shares in the Suez Canal with Constantinople getting the power to appoint the ruler of Egypt.
There is also the issue of Sudan which in theory Anglo-Egyptian although in practice British. If the Ottomans wish they could try and cut themselves a slice of that country although I have the feeling that they would be told to get lost.
Given that the Turks did not do too well in the guerrilla war in WW1, their battle hardened army probably won't do too well in the Turkish-Arab War in the twenties. Then again if the Germans supply them with aircraft the Arabs won't do too well either, especially after the Turks go chemical.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
Both Cyprus and Egypt were under Ottoman sovereignty until the Ottomans entered the war - at that point the British formalized their protectorates.
What guerilla war? The Ottomans devoted nearly zero effort against the "Arab Revolt" yet still hung onto all their strong points. Medina and Yemen weren't evacuated until 1919. Without the millions of British troops backing them up, a few thousand beduins wouldn't cause the slightest problem for the Ottomans - and note that 99% of Arabs remained loyal to the Ottomans to the end of the war - given an Ottoman victory, I don't see why this would change. Why do you assume there would be a Turkish-Arab war in the 20's? I don't see it.
The Sudan is an interesting question and its status would probably be determined by how the war had gone. British interest in the Sudan might be somewhat limited without Egypt. Ottoman interest in it wouldn't be great either, but the Egyptians might push for it given the amount of money they invested there (the British paid Sudan expenses out of the Egyptian treasury).
What guerilla war? The Ottomans devoted nearly zero effort against the "Arab Revolt" yet still hung onto all their strong points. Medina and Yemen weren't evacuated until 1919. Without the millions of British troops backing them up, a few thousand beduins wouldn't cause the slightest problem for the Ottomans - and note that 99% of Arabs remained loyal to the Ottomans to the end of the war - given an Ottoman victory, I don't see why this would change. Why do you assume there would be a Turkish-Arab war in the 20's? I don't see it.
The Sudan is an interesting question and its status would probably be determined by how the war had gone. British interest in the Sudan might be somewhat limited without Egypt. Ottoman interest in it wouldn't be great either, but the Egyptians might push for it given the amount of money they invested there (the British paid Sudan expenses out of the Egyptian treasury).
There would probably be a joint German-Ottoman invasion, then the oil would flow into Berlin.
Keenir
Banned
'obviously'?
in a Central Powers Victory ATL, the Greeks have just seen their political and military backers get their arses kicked. why exactly would the Greeks try to "liberate" anything in spitting distance of Constantinople?
.....wait, was the 'obviously' just a sarcastic jibe at stereotyped ATLs?