The Ottoman empire, but not Japan, joins the global north.

I mean, they where allies in ww1 and the whole Berlin Baghdad railway thing.

Why would that make Germany and the Ottomans friends? The Berlin-to-Baghdad railway was built in part to enable German business interests to take more of the Ottoman pie, that has positive aspects for the Ottomans, but it also has positive aspects for Germans who want to turn the Ottomans into a colonial client. In and of itself, building the railroad is neither friendly nor unfriendly. And you remember the story about HOW the Germans got the Ottomans into the war right? They scored political points by transferring some trapped ships and their crews to Ottoman control, then those crews "mutinied" against their claimed legal commander and with the connivance of Enver Pasha committed a series of atrocities along the Russian Black Sea coast. Yeah, that's real friendly.


From a series of maps showing the evolution of German claims in WW1. Source uncertain. What I have are a series of photocopies. They were from a book owned by an old teacher of mine and unfortunately, that teacher is now dead so I can't ask him now.

The maps are absolutely NUTS by the way. When I asked the teacher what the hell the Germans were thinking he said "well, they went into the war not knowing what they wanted".

fasquardon
 
From a series of maps showing the evolution of German claims in WW1. Source uncertain. What I have are a series of photocopies. They were from a book owned by an old teacher of mine and unfortunately, that teacher is now dead so I can't ask him now.

The maps are absolutely NUTS by the way. When I asked the teacher what the hell the Germans were thinking he said "well, they went into the war not knowing what they wanted".
Uploaded it or seems propaganda, the only plan german have was septemeberprogramm and that was not a suggestion, historically germany was to win, no one knew what they wanted at all, so that seems bad propaganda
 

Germaniac

Donor
Sultan Abdulhamid II remains in power, averting the Young Turk Revolution. The Ottomans agree to a peaceful transfer of Libya to Italian rule, leading to a much stronger performance in the Balkan War. Massacring a few butterflies, WWI happens on schedule. With a stronger Sultanate, the great jihad is much more successful, with colonial revolts across the Muslim world. In the peace deal, the Empire regains Libya, receives several vassals, and has their debts with the Entente forgiven.

With the power of the Sultanate revealed and the growing oil boom, the other great powers are forced to grapple with the rising Ottoman Empire.

No Ottoman leader is going to peacefully transfer power to Italy in Libya. Its possible there could be a power sharing agreement or a protectorate like in Egypt or Cyprus, but Italy wanted direct and absolute authority there. Libya was an Arab province, handing it over will cause serious anger among the Arab population and seriously undermine Abdulhamid and i dont see how he would survive it.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Oil boom? In the 1920s?

There's a couple things to keep in mind here:

1) Oil until the 1970s was incredibly cheap stuff and because of the capital-intensive nature of the extraction process, Western firms were in position to capture most of the wealth extracted from the oil deposits. The Ottomans won't be in a position to gain a significant part of their own oil wealth until decades of work building a domestic oil industry, whenever they chose to put such work in.

2) The Ottoman Empire isn't Iraq or Saudi Arabia (dirt poor and underpopulated). It is a large complex economy with a sparse but respectable population. Oil for the Ottomans would be more like North Sea oil was for the UK - a welcome boost to the economy but not THE engine of the economy.

fasquardon

I'm not sure I totally agree with your premise on the oil economy and development. There would be significant interest and desire by nations OTHER than the UK (who had already secured it's sources of oil in Persia). If you look at say Mexico's oil industry and development, which I'd argue is a pretty solid comparison considering they faced similar obstacles that the Ottomans faced economically (with either country having both positives and negatives the other did not). The Mexican oil industry rapidly expanded over only 10-20 years. If the Ottomans had begun the process earlier than OTL (only really getting the ball rolling just before the first world war) maybe as late as 1906 you could see a sizable oil industry by the mid-20's.

While oil prices are low it is a source of revenue desperately desired by the Porte, and specifically a source of revenue NOT controlled by the Public Debt Administration.

I see two possible paths of expansion, 1) The Porte negotiates independently and secures royalties which cede directly to the Finance Ministry. This will greatly increase the revenues (which were meager compared to the sums the OPDA brought in) and will allow the Ottoman government the ability to slowly ween themselves off of foreign loans. By the 40's depending on the Empires development you will probably see nationalization (possibly even earlier) putting the wealth of oil directly into the Porte's coffers.
2) The Ottomans include the OPDA in the arrangement by ceding the revenues from oil to the administration. The Ottomans and OPDA had already worked out an arrangement where the rate of repayment was fixed and any additional revenues collected would be split 75%/25% between the Finance Ministry and the OPDA. The OPDA used it's additional funds in the development of it's ceded revenues (The OPDA's sole mission was to extract whatever revenues possible, when coercion proved useless, cooperation became the rule). The OPDA would funnel money into the development of the oil industry (as it would reap at least 25% of the reward) and would likely be able to secure better deals, possibly even ownership stakes (allowing for more revenue than a simple royalties scheme). I would expect that the arrangement would see a much quicker development of the industry and the accompanying infrastructure development, but you will need some very savy and forward thinking CUP members (specifically Cavit Bey) to walk that tightrope.

What???? I thought Germany and the Ottomans where good chums

Even the most Pro-Ottoman's in the German military saw the Ottoman state as crumbling in the aftermath of the Balkan Wars. Following the defeat Germany looked at the Ottoman position and came to the conclusion that it would be either theirs or Britain-France's. While the policy of the government swayed back and forth there was never a friendship between them and actually the Ottomans tended to prefer dealing with the Austrians over their German counterparts. While Germany will not openly move toward dismantling the empire, they certainly would not have stood in the way as long as they were getting a larger helping than their adversaries. When I get home I will followup with some sources.
 
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Germaniac

Donor
If they can develop a balanced economy sure under the right circumstances. I think Russia may be a good comparison for potential.
 
If they can develop a balanced economy sure under the right circumstances. I think Russia may be a good comparison for potential.
Yeah, even in 1914 the empire was wide and full of contrasting regions. It would be imposible to get an evenly distributed development level from Edirne to Basra. Some areas will be poorer.
 
Yeah, even in 1914 the empire was wide and full of contrasting regions. It would be imposible to get an evenly distributed development level from Edirne to Basra. Some areas will be poorer.
That is true for all countries. But in many countries, even their poorest regions have relatively high living standards. Like Germany or France.
 
I'm not sure I totally agree with your premise on the oil economy and development. There would be significant interest and desire by nations OTHER than the UK (who had already secured it's sources of oil in Persia). If you look at say Mexico's oil industry and development, which I'd argue is a pretty solid comparison considering they faced similar obstacles that the Ottomans faced economically (with either country having both positives and negatives the other did not). The Mexican oil industry rapidly expanded over only 10-20 years. If the Ottomans had begun the process earlier than OTL (only really getting the ball rolling just before the first world war) maybe as late as 1906 you could see a sizable oil industry by the mid-20's.

While oil prices are low it is a source of revenue desperately desired by the Porte, and specifically a source of revenue NOT controlled by the Public Debt Administration.

I see two possible paths of expansion, 1) The Porte negotiates independently and secures royalties which cede directly to the Finance Ministry. This will greatly increase the revenues (which were meager compared to the sums the OPDA brought in) and will allow the Ottoman government the ability to slowly ween themselves off of foreign loans. By the 40's depending on the Empires development you will probably see nationalization (possibly even earlier) putting the wealth of oil directly into the Porte's coffers.
2) The Ottomans include the OPDA in the arrangement by ceding the revenues from oil to the administration. The Ottomans and OPDA had already worked out an arrangement where the rate of repayment was fixed and any additional revenues collected would be split 75%/25% between the Finance Ministry and the OPDA. The OPDA used it's additional funds in the development of it's ceded revenues (The OPDA's sole mission was to extract whatever revenues possible, when coercion proved useless, cooperation became the rule). The OPDA would funnel money into the development of the oil industry (as it would reap at least 25% of the reward) and would likely be able to secure better deals, possibly even ownership stakes (allowing for more revenue than a simple royalties scheme). I would expect that the arrangement would see a much quicker development of the industry and the accompanying infrastructure development, but you will need some very savy and forward thinking CUP members (specifically Cavit Bey) to walk that tightrope.

I am largely in agreement with this.

I mean... I do think the North Sea oil in Britain is an apt comparison, and that changed the economic trajectory of the British isles. But development of the Ottoman oil industry doesn't catapult them to great wealth by the 1920s. It would take time and wise policies.

Uploaded it or seems propaganda, the only plan german have was septemeberprogramm and that was not a suggestion, historically germany was to win, no one knew what they wanted at all, so that seems bad propaganda

I don't see how an upload would help if we don't have the sources the map-makers based their work on. Which is especially relevant since as you say, the Germans didn't actually know what they wanted (that was why my old teacher showed me the maps). So to talk about it in detail, we'd need to know which part of the German state wanted what, the relative power of the people who put forward different ideas for claims and suchlike. In Russia, what Germany actually ended up taking depended mostly on what the army wanted, and the army was at some points working directly opposed to the civilians. So if we made a map of German plans for Russia based on civilian sources, and another map based on plans from military sources, we'd have two very different maps.

fasquardon
 
That seems kinda interesting. But I think the Ottomans have enough oil in their mesopotamian territory. Maybe they can also annex Kuwait "Goa style" from the UK
Goa was a poorly-garrisoned port city belonging to a historically weak and poor colonial power with military centers several thousand miles across the planet from Goa. A more apt comparison would be the attempted annexation of the Falklands by Argentina.

A timeline post-1900 wherein the Ottoman state manages to survive and outstrip Japan is going to require both deep-seated, fundamental alterations to how the Ottoman government functions (and avoiding any wars with strong powers nearby) and Japan to be utterly hammered. The latter is in truth substantially easier - have ultranational sentiments grow in a similar-to-OTL manner and lead to a war with either Russia or the U.S., leading to a ground invasion of Japan and the subsequent demographic disaster wreaked on the country. Between their ardent Turkification policies and vast rifts between the Turkish elite and their Arab, Armenian, and Greek minorities, getting the state to not rip itself apart (or bring on disastrous partition at the hands of opportunistic foreign powers) is going to require both a political coup at the leadership level and some means of aligning a genuine Ottomanist, modernist mindset among its common populace.
 
Goa was a poorly-garrisoned port city belonging to a historically weak and poor colonial power with military centers several thousand miles across the planet from Goa. A more apt comparison would be the attempted annexation of the Falklands by Argentina.

A timeline post-1900 wherein the Ottoman state manages to survive and outstrip Japan is going to require both deep-seated, fundamental alterations to how the Ottoman government functions (and avoiding any wars with strong powers nearby) and Japan to be utterly hammered. The latter is in truth substantially easier - have ultranational sentiments grow in a similar-to-OTL manner and lead to a war with either Russia or the U.S., leading to a ground invasion of Japan and the subsequent demographic disaster wreaked on the country. Between their ardent Turkification policies and vast rifts between the Turkish elite and their Arab, Armenian, and Greek minorities, getting the state to not rip itself apart (or bring on disastrous partition at the hands of opportunistic foreign powers) is going to require both a political coup at the leadership level and some means of aligning a genuine Ottomanist, modernist mindset among its common populace.
I mean, assuming post 1900 borders, wouldn't Arabs be like half the population?

Anyhow, constructing an Ottomanist mindset among the population is not as difficult as it seems. Even in ww1, most Kurds and Arabs where loyal to the Ottomans until the bitter end. Also, stopping the Turkification should not be difficult. The exact details I'm not sure of though.

You mentioned not getting into a war, which is entirely valid. But winning a war against a European power would do a lot to cement the legitimacy of the Ottoman Empire and the different ethnic groups serving in the military together can create a common identity.

If Britain is distracted elsewhere, like fighting Germany or France, then the Ottomans could very well sneak in and take Kuwait. The Falkands are not a good comparison because they are more easily accessible from the British Isles and inhabited primarily by ethnically British people, neither of which apply to Kuwait. Plus the Ottomans would have an advantage in terms of logistics and supply routes here.
 

Germaniac

Donor
A timeline post-1900 wherein the Ottoman state manages to survive and outstrip Japan is going to require both deep-seated, fundamental alterations to how the Ottoman government functions (and avoiding any wars with strong powers nearby) and Japan to be utterly hammered. The latter is in truth substantially easier - have ultranational sentiments grow in a similar-to-OTL manner and lead to a war with either Russia or the U.S., leading to a ground invasion of Japan and the subsequent demographic disaster wreaked on the country. Between their ardent Turkification policies and vast rifts between the Turkish elite and their Arab, Armenian, and Greek minorities, getting the state to not rip itself apart (or bring on disastrous partition at the hands of opportunistic foreign powers) is going to require both a political coup at the leadership level and some means of aligning a genuine Ottomanist, modernist mindset among its common populace.

The Young Turk revolution in 1908 brought with it MASSIVE changes to the structure of the Ottoman government. The issue is conflating the CUP in 1908 with the CUP in 1914. By 1914, following the defeat in the Balkan war, the CUP was taken over by the far right extremists, people like Enver Pasha. Prior to 1912 the CUP stuck to a multiethnic vision of the Ottoman State (as long as you were willing to learn Ottoman Turkish as well). Though the constitutionalists had faced challenges it wasnt until their defeat at the ballot box in Istanbul in 1911 that set them in the wrong path.

Fearing the rising strength of the Liberal autonomists (which looking back likely would have led to dismemberment anyway) they found a loophole to force an early election and uhh fudged things a bit and establish a near total control over the assembly. Officers of the "Liberals" launched a coup and subsequently mucked up the Balkan war and were overthrown by the extremists in the CUP who decided on a turkification policy as opposed to Ottomanism.
 
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There is something I cannot fathom. Like, I've heard all the reasons the middle east isnt very developed now. But still, the Ottoman empire was literally part of the European socio cultural space where innovations and ideas spread rapidly. Yet they staged behind literally everyone.

Contrast Japan, which was far away and super isolated but still managed to modernize and then beat a European country in a war. Japan was not part of the European region and did not get news of all the latest shit that was happening, but still did super well.

This seems impossible
 
Reality is sometimes stranger than fiction!
But I believe it comes down to cultural specifics: Japanese culture supported and even wanted modernization,while Ottoman did not.
 
Contrast Japan, which was far away and super isolated but still managed to modernize and then beat a European country in a war. Japan was not part of the European region and did not get news of all the latest shit that was happening, but still did super well.

Actually, the Shogun and his government kept up to date with foreign developments. He just didn't want to implement any of them.
 
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