I mean, they where allies in ww1 and the whole Berlin Baghdad railway thing. You're the one who needs a citationYeah a citation needed please
I mean, they where allies in ww1 and the whole Berlin Baghdad railway thing. You're the one who needs a citationYeah a citation needed please
i was asking @fasquardonI mean, they where allies in ww1 and the whole Berlin Baghdad railway thing. You're the one who needs a citation
I mean, they where allies in ww1 and the whole Berlin Baghdad railway thing.
i was asking @fasquardon
Uploaded it or seems propaganda, the only plan german have was septemeberprogramm and that was not a suggestion, historically germany was to win, no one knew what they wanted at all, so that seems bad propagandaFrom a series of maps showing the evolution of German claims in WW1. Source uncertain. What I have are a series of photocopies. They were from a book owned by an old teacher of mine and unfortunately, that teacher is now dead so I can't ask him now.
The maps are absolutely NUTS by the way. When I asked the teacher what the hell the Germans were thinking he said "well, they went into the war not knowing what they wanted".
Sultan Abdulhamid II remains in power, averting the Young Turk Revolution. The Ottomans agree to a peaceful transfer of Libya to Italian rule, leading to a much stronger performance in the Balkan War. Massacring a few butterflies, WWI happens on schedule. With a stronger Sultanate, the great jihad is much more successful, with colonial revolts across the Muslim world. In the peace deal, the Empire regains Libya, receives several vassals, and has their debts with the Entente forgiven.
With the power of the Sultanate revealed and the growing oil boom, the other great powers are forced to grapple with the rising Ottoman Empire.
Oil boom? In the 1920s?
There's a couple things to keep in mind here:
1) Oil until the 1970s was incredibly cheap stuff and because of the capital-intensive nature of the extraction process, Western firms were in position to capture most of the wealth extracted from the oil deposits. The Ottomans won't be in a position to gain a significant part of their own oil wealth until decades of work building a domestic oil industry, whenever they chose to put such work in.
2) The Ottoman Empire isn't Iraq or Saudi Arabia (dirt poor and underpopulated). It is a large complex economy with a sparse but respectable population. Oil for the Ottomans would be more like North Sea oil was for the UK - a welcome boost to the economy but not THE engine of the economy.
fasquardon
What???? I thought Germany and the Ottomans where good chums
Yeah, even in 1914 the empire was wide and full of contrasting regions. It would be imposible to get an evenly distributed development level from Edirne to Basra. Some areas will be poorer.If they can develop a balanced economy sure under the right circumstances. I think Russia may be a good comparison for potential.
That is true for all countries. But in many countries, even their poorest regions have relatively high living standards. Like Germany or France.Yeah, even in 1914 the empire was wide and full of contrasting regions. It would be imposible to get an evenly distributed development level from Edirne to Basra. Some areas will be poorer.
I'm not sure I totally agree with your premise on the oil economy and development. There would be significant interest and desire by nations OTHER than the UK (who had already secured it's sources of oil in Persia). If you look at say Mexico's oil industry and development, which I'd argue is a pretty solid comparison considering they faced similar obstacles that the Ottomans faced economically (with either country having both positives and negatives the other did not). The Mexican oil industry rapidly expanded over only 10-20 years. If the Ottomans had begun the process earlier than OTL (only really getting the ball rolling just before the first world war) maybe as late as 1906 you could see a sizable oil industry by the mid-20's.
While oil prices are low it is a source of revenue desperately desired by the Porte, and specifically a source of revenue NOT controlled by the Public Debt Administration.
I see two possible paths of expansion, 1) The Porte negotiates independently and secures royalties which cede directly to the Finance Ministry. This will greatly increase the revenues (which were meager compared to the sums the OPDA brought in) and will allow the Ottoman government the ability to slowly ween themselves off of foreign loans. By the 40's depending on the Empires development you will probably see nationalization (possibly even earlier) putting the wealth of oil directly into the Porte's coffers.
2) The Ottomans include the OPDA in the arrangement by ceding the revenues from oil to the administration. The Ottomans and OPDA had already worked out an arrangement where the rate of repayment was fixed and any additional revenues collected would be split 75%/25% between the Finance Ministry and the OPDA. The OPDA used it's additional funds in the development of it's ceded revenues (The OPDA's sole mission was to extract whatever revenues possible, when coercion proved useless, cooperation became the rule). The OPDA would funnel money into the development of the oil industry (as it would reap at least 25% of the reward) and would likely be able to secure better deals, possibly even ownership stakes (allowing for more revenue than a simple royalties scheme). I would expect that the arrangement would see a much quicker development of the industry and the accompanying infrastructure development, but you will need some very savy and forward thinking CUP members (specifically Cavit Bey) to walk that tightrope.
Uploaded it or seems propaganda, the only plan german have was septemeberprogramm and that was not a suggestion, historically germany was to win, no one knew what they wanted at all, so that seems bad propaganda
Goa was a poorly-garrisoned port city belonging to a historically weak and poor colonial power with military centers several thousand miles across the planet from Goa. A more apt comparison would be the attempted annexation of the Falklands by Argentina.That seems kinda interesting. But I think the Ottomans have enough oil in their mesopotamian territory. Maybe they can also annex Kuwait "Goa style" from the UK
I mean, assuming post 1900 borders, wouldn't Arabs be like half the population?Goa was a poorly-garrisoned port city belonging to a historically weak and poor colonial power with military centers several thousand miles across the planet from Goa. A more apt comparison would be the attempted annexation of the Falklands by Argentina.
A timeline post-1900 wherein the Ottoman state manages to survive and outstrip Japan is going to require both deep-seated, fundamental alterations to how the Ottoman government functions (and avoiding any wars with strong powers nearby) and Japan to be utterly hammered. The latter is in truth substantially easier - have ultranational sentiments grow in a similar-to-OTL manner and lead to a war with either Russia or the U.S., leading to a ground invasion of Japan and the subsequent demographic disaster wreaked on the country. Between their ardent Turkification policies and vast rifts between the Turkish elite and their Arab, Armenian, and Greek minorities, getting the state to not rip itself apart (or bring on disastrous partition at the hands of opportunistic foreign powers) is going to require both a political coup at the leadership level and some means of aligning a genuine Ottomanist, modernist mindset among its common populace.
A timeline post-1900 wherein the Ottoman state manages to survive and outstrip Japan is going to require both deep-seated, fundamental alterations to how the Ottoman government functions (and avoiding any wars with strong powers nearby) and Japan to be utterly hammered. The latter is in truth substantially easier - have ultranational sentiments grow in a similar-to-OTL manner and lead to a war with either Russia or the U.S., leading to a ground invasion of Japan and the subsequent demographic disaster wreaked on the country. Between their ardent Turkification policies and vast rifts between the Turkish elite and their Arab, Armenian, and Greek minorities, getting the state to not rip itself apart (or bring on disastrous partition at the hands of opportunistic foreign powers) is going to require both a political coup at the leadership level and some means of aligning a genuine Ottomanist, modernist mindset among its common populace.
Why does the middle east have a lot more illiteracy than Europe? Even Turkey is less literate than the Balkan countries.
I doubt that!
Source, please?
Contrast Japan, which was far away and super isolated but still managed to modernize and then beat a European country in a war. Japan was not part of the European region and did not get news of all the latest shit that was happening, but still did super well.