The Ottoman empire, but not Japan, joins the global north.

Germaniac

Donor

I was being mysterious...
Some thoughts on this specific question,

I think the major problen with post-Balkan war scenario is the Enver Pasha is in power. Any Empire with Enver at the helm has done some pretty horrendous things and turned to rigid Turkish nationalism. This will doom the Empire over the next decade.

Britain will have its own problems. Ireland, India, war debt, and radicals of all stripes will keep Britain busy with a late victory. But a neutral Ottoman Empire is a natural ally to help contain Russia (much like Japan).

Germany was not as tied at the hip until late in the Great War game. While the Bagdhad Railroad was a German interest, it was privately funded and was a private company. Its not as if the German government will be sending garrisons to Basra.

The Arab revolt was manufactured. Prior to the war even the most radical arab politicians only called for autonomy. When Arab expats in Paris called for independence there was widespread disagreement at home. Most Arab leaders felt that remaining whole was a better alternative to European domination and the loss of Libya only reinforced those feelings.

Most of the Ottomans christians were in Rumelia and were lost. Any OE that commits atrocities against its Christian citizens will be met with world wide condemnation. Germany specifically would not stand back and ignore it.

But on the flip side if Enver is in power he may just become this worlds Hitler.

In terms of Japan, as a country that did industrialize and "westernize" its forces, could simply remain underdeveloped. It could be colonized and suffer the same outcome of any number of post colonial nations.
 
Britain will have its own problems. Ireland, India, war debt, and radicals of all stripes will keep Britain busy with a late victory. But a neutral Ottoman Empire is a natural ally to help contain Russia (much like Japan).
The opposite, Britain was help bend on palestine since late XIXth century...anything conflict is and was inevitable.
 

Germaniac

Donor
The opposite, Britain was help bend on palestine since late XIXth century...anything conflict is and was inevitable.

I firmly believe that a war weary Britain is in absolutely no position to fight the Ottomans alone. The population would NOT be willing to die to expand the empire in a country that wasnt a foe. Hell, even when the continent was under threat twenty years later the population was slow to embrace a war path.

Was India supposed to supply the troops? Im sure their muslim population would be just thrilled to fight the caliph, even if ceremonial, in a war fighting for their colonial oppressors.

Could Britain win a war in the 20's, sure they could... but they wont.

By the end of the Great War the Ottomans would have a core army whose experience in the Balkan Wars had taught them many of the lessons of the First World War without the loss of millions of a generation of soldiers.
 
Was India supposed to supply the troops? Im sure their muslim population would be just thrilled to fight the caliph, even if ceremonial, in a war fighting for their colonial oppressors.
They did OTL, that is why i don't trust the entete at all, capitulation, the battleships were the literal last straw
 

Germaniac

Donor
They did OTL, that is why i don't trust the entete at all, capitulation, the battleships were the literal last straw

They did OTL because the Ottomans declared war on them. The Ottomans would not be the aggressors in any war with the UK. Yes, the battleships being seized was a bad move, but the Ottomans won't go to war over it. Hell, the ministry of finance was probably thrilled.

Capitulations are trickier, but its not like they didnt have the same problem with Germany or Austria. The Ottomans will need to play a tightrope or risk becoming an oil dependent economy on a massive scale (and likely fostering extreme discontent in the oil producing regions).

The CUP was already preparing for the eventuality the the OPDA and the monopolies being taken back and were, somewhat successfully, using concessions as leverage to relieve them of the tariff restrictions. But something that is somewhat overlooked is the vast benefit the OPDA provided to the Empire in modernizing its finance system and bringing in loans and investment to economic development. The OPDA was very much a partner to Ottoman development (especially in Rumelia), as improving the sources of revenue was naturally a goal.
 

Germaniac

Donor
I think its more likely that the Ottomans back the Rashid's over the Sauds and allow them to rule over the peninsula.

Hejaz may stay semi independent

Kuwait is still loosely part of the Ottoman Empire but the British aren't going to part with it peacefully.
 
I think its more likely that the Ottomans back the Rashid's over the Sauds and allow them to rule over the peninsula.

Hejaz may stay semi independent

Kuwait is still loosely part of the Ottoman Empire but the British aren't going to part with it peacefully.
Hejaz will definitely be integrated into the Ottoman empire, the prestige that comes with owning Mecca and Medina is too much to let go.

As for Kuwait, depending on what condition the Ottomans are in and when it happens, they can just tell the British to go suck it. They could annex Kuwait "Goa style". If they have recovered from ww1 (if they joined it), they could very well kick the British out of the Persian gulf if they roll all sixes.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Hejaz will definitely be integrated into the Ottoman empire, the prestige that comes with owning Mecca and Medina is too much to let go.

As for Kuwait, depending on what condition the Ottomans are in and when it happens, they can just tell the British to go suck it. They could annex Kuwait "Goa style". If they have recovered from ww1 (if they joined it), they could very well kick the British out of the Persian gulf if they roll all sixes.

It really depends on the government of OE. If its Unionist (either Enverist Military dictatorship or parliamentary unionist gov) then they will definitely move to integrate Hejaz, but if it's a liberal government they pushed for decentralization and I doubt they would pressure out the Hashemites.
 
It really depends on the government of OE. If its Unionist (either Enverist Military dictatorship or parliamentary unionist gov) then they will definitely move to integrate Hejaz, but if it's a liberal government they pushed for decentralization and I doubt they would pressure out the Hashemites.
They could annex Hejaz but help the Hashemites beat the Sauds and take over the rest of Arabia as compensation.
 
Nobbling Japan is pretty easy if you go for a PoD slightly before the turn of the Century. Just have Japan lose the Sino-Japanese war. The indemnity from China after 1895 was a key element of Japan's rise over the following century. Without it, Britain remains allied to China, Japan doesn't build up the strength to challenge Russia. It's a much more minor player.

Of course, the other result of this is a much stronger China.

For the Ottomans, no Balkan Wars would be my PoD of choice. No getting involved in WW1 is a good second best. CP victory wouldn't really work for saving the Ottomans unless things are very quick and the Germans get lucky enough that France is defeated by the end of 1914 and the whole CP alliance can focus their land-bound efforts on a Russia which sues for peace soon after (if Russia is stubborn, they could still loose, but with British support also fight hard enough to ensure that the Ottomans are smashed anyway). In a longer war, the harder the fight, the more the Germans are looking for ways to make all the costs of the war worth it and the more the Ottomans are exhausted, sapping their ability to resist German actions against them after the war. The Germans were planning on partitioning the Ottomans anyway, or at the very least turning them into a satellite "ally".

fasquardon
 
Sultan Abdulhamid II remains in power, averting the Young Turk Revolution. The Ottomans agree to a peaceful transfer of Libya to Italian rule, leading to a much stronger performance in the Balkan War. Massacring a few butterflies, WWI happens on schedule. With a stronger Sultanate, the great jihad is much more successful, with colonial revolts across the Muslim world. In the peace deal, the Empire regains Libya, receives several vassals, and has their debts with the Entente forgiven.

With the power of the Sultanate revealed and the growing oil boom, the other great powers are forced to grapple with the rising Ottoman Empire.
 
With the power of the Sultanate revealed and the growing oil boom, the other great powers are forced to grapple with the rising Ottoman Empire.

Oil boom? In the 1920s?

There's a couple things to keep in mind here:

1) Oil until the 1970s was incredibly cheap stuff and because of the capital-intensive nature of the extraction process, Western firms were in position to capture most of the wealth extracted from the oil deposits. The Ottomans won't be in a position to gain a significant part of their own oil wealth until decades of work building a domestic oil industry, whenever they chose to put such work in.

2) The Ottoman Empire isn't Iraq or Saudi Arabia (dirt poor and underpopulated). It is a large complex economy with a sparse but respectable population. Oil for the Ottomans would be more like North Sea oil was for the UK - a welcome boost to the economy but not THE engine of the economy.

fasquardon
 
the more the Ottomans are exhausted, sapping their ability to resist German actions against them after the war. The Germans were planning on partitioning the Ottomans anyway, or at the very least turning them into a satellite "ally".
What???? I thought Germany and the Ottomans where good chums
 
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