The Ottoman empire, but not Japan, joins the global north.

These are kind of 2 seprate questions that need not be answered in the same scenerio (but they certainly can be), but l find both interesting.

1. With any pod after 1900, have the Ottoman empire become a fully developed, "1st world" industrialized country. This means a mostly urban population, low birth rates, more than 90% literacy, strong sense of national identity, high standards of medical care, immediate access to new technological advances, destination rather than source of migrant labor, and a strong military that easily matches European ones. Not strictly nessecary, but being a Democracy is preferable as well.

2. Japan ends up a poor, unstable, conflict ridden "third world" country not worthy of any respect from the European powers. These include poorly maintained infrastructure, use of outdated technology, high rates of illiteracy, high birth rates, high levels of emigration, source of migrant labor, despotic government and highly corrupt government and military.

Some things to note here.

- The Ottoman collapse was far from inevitable. Even as late as ww1, in a central powers victory France and Russia would both be beaten up by Germany and hence in no position to take anything from the Ottoman empire. Britain would be harder to deal with, but the Ottomans can certainly improve their military with assistance and training from Germany, especially if stuff like the Berlin Baghdad railway comes to fruition. The Ottomans where not even as unstable as people thought. The majority of Arabs and Turks where loyal til the bitter end. The Arab revolt could easily have been stopped if they did not have extensive British support. Maybe the Arab revolt doesn't even happen. Say the people of Hejaz find out the truth that the British would never keep their promise of a unified Arab kingdom. There might still be some internal unrest among Christians, but should the empire democratize, integration of them will become easier.

- Likewise, Japan's rise to power is also not inevitable. Granted, this I am less educated on, so I'll need you guys to help me here. But what if Japan looses the Russo Japanese war? Or maybe some extremely self destructive Mubutu style regime comes to power.

What do you all think?
 
1. With any pod after 1900, have the Ottoman empire become a fully developed, "1st world" industrialized country. This means a mostly urban population, low birth rates, more than 90% literacy, strong sense of national identity, high standards of medical care, immediate access to new technological advances, destination rather than source of migrant labor, and a strong military that easily matches European ones. Not strictly nessecary, but being a Democracy is preferable as well.
Too late, maybe 1800 with early end capitulazations and taking advantage napoleon chaos, British already were the vulture to carve the ottomans
 
Too late, maybe 1800 with early end capitulazations and taking advantage napoleon chaos, British already were the vulture to carve the ottomans
Here's the thing though. The British can't carve up the Ottomans if they stay united and strong. Or maybe something can really mess up the situation in Britain to render them unable to conduct imperialism at least for the time being, like a British civil war.
 
Here's the thing though. The British can't carve up the Ottomans if they stay united and strong. Or maybe something can really mess up the situation in Britain to render them unable to conduct imperialism at least for the time being, like a British civil war.
I say 1900, as you say a victorius CP destroy any franco-british plan in the middle east and could be the spark to allow ottoman to industrialize first with OIL and later weapons.

high rates of illiteracy, high birth rates
The rest can happen but those two are harder, JAPAN did have a better literacy rate(literacy as read enough kanjis) that most european countries even pre meiji, maybe a little overpopulation but with japan culture of being an island is harder, the rest is very pausable
 

eadmund

Banned
Not a post-1900 PoD, but The Green Archipelago offers some interesting possibilities for Japan. I unfortunately haven't read the book yet, though, so.


"By the late 1600s, Japan was on the brink of ecological collapse. Overpopulation and deforestation had nearly stripped the country of trees, and it was very possible the Japanese islands could have ended up like modern-day Haiti or Madagascar, denuded and impoverished. Yet changes in Edo-period environmental policy and philosophy transformed the archipelago's land management from largely exploitative to regenerative, and consequently today Japan is, in the author's words, "one great forest preserve". This book tells that story."

"Every foreign traveler in Japan is delighted by the verdant forest-shrouded mountains that thrust skyward from one end of the island chain to the other. The Japanese themselves are conscious of the lush green of their homeland, which they sometimes refer to as "the green archipelago." Yet, based on its fragile geography and centuries of extremely dense human occupation, Japan today should be an impoverished, slum-ridden, peasant society subsisting on a barren, eroded moonscape characterized by bald mountains and debris-strewn lowlands.

In fact, as Conrad Totman argues in this pathbreaking work based on prodigious research, this lush verdue is not a monument to nature's benevolence and Japanese aesthetic sensibilities, but the hard-earned result of generations of human toil that have converted the archipelago into one great forest preserve. Indeed, the author shows that until the late 1600s Japan was well on her way to ecological disaster due to exploitative forestry. During the Tokugawa period, however, an extraordinary change took place resulting in a system of "regenerative forestry" that averted the devastation of Japan's forests. The Green Archipelago is the only major Western-language work on this subject and a landmark not only in Japanese history, but in the history of the environment."

"This is a superb book on an important subject: the pulling back of Japan beginning in the late 17th century from the utter destruction of her forests—a course on which the country seemed bent in 1600—and from the ecological, economic, and social catastrophe that would have followed. The immense importance of the subject for Japanese history is obvious."
 
For the first, the minimum requirement is for the Ottomans to not take part in WWI. Then you have to avoid being yet another state where the locals are bought off by dividends from the sale of oil and cushy jobs, whilst using migrant labour for almost everything else. If they play their cards right, then industrialisation, economic diversification and political stability can pave the rest of the way. I wouldn't be surprised to see TTL's Ottoman Empire having a GDP on par with, say, OTL India (about US$2.7tn), if not more.

The second is harder. I'd argue that 1900 is too late to stop the rise of Japan as at least a high second tier economy, if not a major one. To satisfy this, it needs a hard economic collapse - and I mean hard, and it needs to stay there (which is harder). This is difficult, unless you have something like Operation Downfall coupled with an American policy that absolutely requires Japan to never, ever, ever rise to anything even approaching what it was before, by forbidding reindustrialisation. (Maybe a Soviet puppet in northern Japan could approach this, if it goes full bore North Korea for a while, or a nuclear war.) I could see Japan's GDP* being on par with, say, Indonesia or Mexico (about US$1tn**), or even Poland/Taiwan/Sweden/Thailand (about US$500bn to US$600bn***). Possibly as far down Malaysia or Pakistan (about US$300bn****). As for the level of socio-economic deprivation required, yeah, that needs serious levels of badness.




*Which is about US$5tn, BTW.
**about 20% of OTL Japan's GDP.
***about 10% of OTL Japan GDP.
****about 6% of OTL Japan.
 
They were planning pre war. so is up there and very possible, now using greeks and italians as proxy too

It also requires Britain, France (and everyone else) to actually desire it at a later point when they are able to do so.

Just because they had plans pre-WWI, doesn't mean that they will actually go through with them. It's entirely possible that later British and French governments will scrap the plans.

At any rate, a post-1900 POD makes it possible for the Ottoman Empire to not just survive but thrive. Of course, it doesn't mean that it is guaranteed (note I never said that it was, and did predicate them having to play their cards right).
 
For the first, the minimum requirement is for the Ottomans to not take part in WWI. Then you have to avoid being yet another state where the locals are bought off by dividends from the sale of oil and cushy jobs, whilst using migrant labour for almost everything else. If they play their cards right, then industrialisation, economic diversification and political stability can pave the rest of the way. I wouldn't be surprised to see TTL's Ottoman Empire having a GDP on par with, say, OTL India (about US$2.7tn), if not more.
But can we get the Ottomans to fully western/European levels of development, like otl Japan did?
 
Just because they had plans pre-WWI, doesn't mean that they will actually go through with them. It's entirely possible that later British and French governments will scrap the plans.
They were and might wait but dunno if otl depression could delay but is possible, in long term depends a lot of things but i don't trust the entete at all.

Long term the POD is earlier, or a CP victory set back the entete into disorder
 
Ottomans sit out WWI, swifter Allied victory with one less front to worry about. The house of Osman gets a breather and survives. Japan meanwhile ends up with a militaristic government that's ends up picking a fight with the US in the 40s. Europe stays quiet for the most part, the US undergoes a bloody war and invades Japan without nukes, devastating the nation irrecoverably during the invasion.
 
Have the Ottomans stay out of WWI and focus on consolidating instead.

During the war they seize the assets of the CPs in the empire and declared that they no longer recognize any debts they owe to German or Austria-Hungary as it becomes apparent they're going to be defeated.

The Ottomans use the distraction of the Europeans to handle the issue of the Armenian insurgency (ideally in a less-disgusting fashion as OTL...) and consolidate themselves in Arabia (the destruction of the Saudis being a top goal).

The Ottomans also allow for much Jewish immigration (on the basis that more educated/literate immigrants can't be a bad thing) but make sure that they aren't all going to Palestine. The Russian empire also cracks down on much of its Turkic population, prompting much migration to the Ottoman Empire. These Turkic peoples assimilate into Osmani Turkish culture.

The Ottomans support the Sheikh Khazal rebellion. Khuzestan ends up an Ottoman client state/protectorate and the Ottomans benefit from the oil.


Internal stability + oil money invested in education and infrastructure = powerful powerful Ottomans.

As for Japan, perhaps the Americans just wreck them really really hard. Or the Japanese decide to pick a fight with the Soviets/Russians and the Soviets/Russians wreck them really really really really hard.






TBH, I kind of like the idea of an Ottoman-Japanese Alliance. Alignment of the two non-western Great Powers seems pretty cool as a concept. Plus Japan needs oil and the Ottomans have it.
 
There are two scenarios:

Before 1911, which means no war with Italy or the Balkan League... the Empire keeps oil rich regions of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, kuwait, Iraq and Libya. The Empire is militarily stronger as no war happens to break them yet again while European Great Powers bash their heads against each other. They avoid large scale refugees from the Balkan Wars and the casualties. The economic centres in Rumelia and Middle East are saved from destruction. If this stronger Ottoman Empire also secures the Southern Caucasus from a potential Soviet attack then the Ottomans have no Russian threat anymore. With the developed parts of the Balkans and MENA oil it may not necessarily be on par with Japan but it would help the industry to resemble Japan of the Middle East.

After 1913 there are two options:
- no WW1
- Central Powers victory
 
To hurt Japan to such a large degree would need a PoD in the late 16th century. You'd need to somehow butterfly away the centralizing that occurred after the waring states period, and somehow have a less than competent shogunate.

Perhaps Japan becoming Christian in the 17th century?
 
The Ottomans are starting off a little behind Spain. Japan is level with Italy. The CUP leadership saw Japan as the model they wanted to follow. Bringing the Ottomans up requires no WW1 and them not participating as The Ottomans need European markets and loans. In this environment oil will be plentiful and cheap so it won’t deliver the outcome many expect.
Bringing Japan down would require a Kanto quake at an 11 or 12 scale to wreck them economy wise but not their reputation.
 
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