The Ostrogski Tsars

In 1610, Moscow was captured by Polish forces under the command of King Sigismund III. This invasion was prompted by the end of the Rurik dynasty, leaving the throne open to numerous pretenders and beginning what is known in Russia as the "Time of Troubles." In this time of despair, the Polish King sought to take advantage of Russia's weakness and plant his dynasty on the throne. Historically, Sigismund's son Wladyslaw IV was nominated to be Tsar, but before long Sigismund would proclaim himself to be Tsar, something that his Orthodox Russian supporters would not tolerate. This decision would cost Sigismund and Poland the throne of Russia and lead the way to the rise of the Romanovs, not to mention an independent Russia.

After doing some digging, I found that there was a magnate family by the name of Ostrogski, who claimed that they were descended from the Rurik dynasty. While the last male of the dynasty, Janusz Ostrogski, was Catholic, his family had previously been Orthodox. If he were to be chosen by King Sigismund to be the ruler of Russia in 1610, he would have been more likely to stay in power than Wladyslaw or the King himself. This post is just to see if there would be any interest in the idea of Ostrogski Tsars and the butterfly effects that they would spawn. I am in no way an expert on this subject, but I think that this would be a fun alternate history to write. Thanks for any feedback,

Philistor
 
Correct me if I am wrong but it looks like you are conjecturing that by 1610 there were no direct male descendents of Rurik save for possibly Ostrogski family ( and their ancestry as Rurikids was and is still highly debated) which makes them an acceptable candidate for tsardom.

If that is indeed your claim, it is based on a false premise.


In the beginning of XVII century there were plenty of families ( and in fact there still are) that had absolutely guarantied 100% direct male lineage to Rurik ( as far as any medieval noble family possibly could have; since Rurik himself is a legendary figure it is more accuratly to say that they had a guarantied linage to pre-Mongol Rus princes). Virtually everyone who had knyaz ( or prince) title at the time was either direct descendant of Rurik or direct descendant of Gediminas ( there are few exceptions like aforementioned Ostrogski family whose claim is uncertain but it is virtually doubtless that if they are not Rurikids, they are defenitly Gediminids ). While later knyaz title was somewhat debased ( most notably by Romanovs who were not Rurikids but who nevertheless held knyaz/prince title) even as late as XIX century most knyaz/prince families were direct male descendents of Rurik or Gediminas ( and that is why many extremely old influential and wealthy families that however were neither Rurikids, nor Gedimininds, nor particularly close to ruling Romanov family - like Vorontsov or Shermetev for example - were counts and not knyaz/princes). Here is a list of a few most notable during Romanov reign families that were in fact direct Rurikids: Dolgorukov, Vorotynsky, Volkonsky, Obolensky, Repnin, Romodanovsky ( and this list can go on and on and on – if you count all branches there are close to 100 families that are undisputed Rurikids; here is Wikipedia list of them in Russian ).

What caused the dynastic crisis during the Time of Troubles was not that there were no Rurikids left but that there were no Moscow Rurikids – Danilovichy - left ( as in the branch of Rurikids that ruled Moscow). Ironically what made Michael Romanov accession possible was not that there were no Rurikids left but that there were too many of them all having comparable dynastic claims so Michael was somewhat of a compromise figure ( well that and the fact that his father was Patriarch and thus had huge influence).


If you are looking for a plausible alternative tsar a good candidate is Dmitry Pozharsky who was the most notable leader of struggle for independence against Poles and also 100% legitimate Rurikid ( but IOTL he repeatedly claimed that he had no interest of becoming a tsar; since he definitely had a very real possibility to become one, his claim must be true).

Wladislaw of Poland also obviously had a very real possibility of becoming tsar had he decided to convert into orthodoxy. It would certainly cost him a Polish crown but would create a lot of interesting butterflies possibly even leading to a war against his brother John Casimir after their father’s death. While nobility Grand Duchy of Lithuania was rapidly polonizing at the time, a large portion of it was still orthodox and East-Slavic-speaking ( as far as general population of easter part of PLC goes, it never lost a stable orthodox-East-Slavic majority). IOTL representatives of this nobility remained largely loyal to Polish Crown ( after early XVI century) despite their religion and language, but they might be much more willing to side with Wladislaw ( who of course would be closer to them than any other Russian tsar). A Russia that controls large parts of modern Ukraine and Belorussia by XVII century but not because it was able to conquer it, but rather by a combination of dynastic dynamics, local support and conquest( thus creating a much more comfortable atmosphere to local nobles including recognition of a least a part of their “golden rights” and possibly even a separate government of Grand Duchy of Lithuania at the beginning of the union), can be a very interesting place.


However if you are looking for exactly what the thread title says - the Ostrogski Tsars - you may need a lot of early butterflies since IOTL while they were a very wealthy and influential family in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth ( and in early XVII century first generation converts from Orthodoxy and either East-Slavic – Polish bilinguals or with East-Slavic as a sole mother tongue) there are literally dozens of families that had a better claim to the Moscow throne than Ostrogski and were much closer tied to a least one party that could possibly support their claim.
 
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Three problems come up with this idea:

  1. The Ostrogski, or Ostrogiškiai, or whatever language you use, were loyalists of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and supported the Union of Brest, so even though they were Orthodox, they would likely not be accepted by the Russians.
  2. Both Janusz and his father Konstanty opposed the intervention in the Time of Troubles and meddling with False Dmitry, so they have OTL basis for not wishing to accept the crown of the Russian tsardom.
  3. The Ostrogski died out with Janusz, so his dynasty would be short-lived anyway.
 
If he were to be chosen by King Sigismund to be the ruler of Russia in 1610, he would have been more likely to stay in power than Wladyslaw or the King himself.
Ok, Ostrogski gets the tsardom (presuming him returning to 'true' Orthodoxy); the Russians get a tsar.
- What does King Sigismund get?
- Are you sure Sigismund will be able to control Ostrogski?
 
Thank you all for the information! As stated above I am in no way an expert on the time period. I will definitly have to think more carefully on the scenario and do more research before I begin writing. If I am unable to find historically plausible reasons for the Ostrogski to be tsars, I will scrap the concept and go back to the drawing board. Thank you for the feedback,

Philistor
 
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Did more digging in books around the house and online:

Sigismund III was, for a brief period between 1592 and 1599, the King of Sweden. While he was in favor of supporting the two false Dimitriis, it was the brief Russian alliance with Sweden that convinced the King to officially invade. In 1610, when the Polish invaded, the Boyars who had been longing for a return to power supported the King's son, Wladyslaw IV. Not only did the prince promise the restoration of Boyar rights, but he also intended to give the nobility of Russia an institution similar to the Sejm in Poland, something that any noble would be a fan of. They had one stipulation however, he must be Orthodox, not Catholic. Naturally Sigismund III is not on board about this stipulation, and peace talks between the two powers broke down later that year.

This is where Janusz Ostrogski comes in. Already a powerful magnate, and a Ruthenian one as well, he would be well equipped to deal with the Russians. While he had converted to Catholicism in 1579, for a position like Tsar of Russia he could easily convert back to his native faith. While IOTL he had been against the Polish intervention in Russia, becoming the center of such a movement could change his mind. While yes there were many other families in Russia related to the Rurik line, none of them would be supported by the Polish, who in 1610 at least had the upper hand in the war. If Janusz was to extend the same offer of the Sejm, he would likely be accepted by the Boyars. Not only that, but he was the richest magnate with supposed ties to the Rurikids(in the Commonwealth).

Obviously a flaw in this plan is the fact that Janusz is the last Ostrogski, since his only son died as an infant. However, his sister had married into a family known as the Zaslawski, who also had ties to the Rurikids(they were even referred to as Knyaz). Discovering this information, this thread might be in need of a new name.

Ultimately, Janusz could be chosen because he is much like Michael Romanov as mentioned above, a compromise. He would be liked by Sigismund III because even if he converted, he would still have Catholic sympathies. Not only that, but Janusz would be loyal to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth(due to his extensive holdings within the nation), giving Sigismund an ally against his rivals(The Ottoman Empire and Sweden). Janusz would be liked by the Russians because of his Orthodox Ruthenian upbringing. Not only that, but he would have the claim to the old Rurikid dynasty. However most importantly he would be loved by the Boyars if he were to institute a Sejm style government. With Janusz as Tsar, he could then be succeeded by Aleksander Zaslawski, his brother-in-law and also distant relative of the old ruling family of Russia.

I really appreciate the responses that this thread has been getting, and I hope to get this scenario cemented so that I can start writing about it. Again, no expert in Russian or Polish history, so any further issues that you find with the scenario would be good to hear. Thanks,

Philistor
 
OK, it looks like I have indeed misinterpreted the OP’s idea.


It seems that the idea is as follows: The Seven Boyars send Sigismund an offer to invite his son Wladislaw as tsar. Sigismund answers that he is flattered but Wladislaw is unavailable. Would Seven Boyars be willing to take Sigismund’s good guy Ostrogski instead, who is extremely wealthy, noble ( whether he is Rurikid or Gedeminid ), Russian-speaking and Orthodox ( the last one is a necessary requirement; so you have to either butterfly away Janusz’s conversion to Catholicism – converting back would probably enrage both Orthodox and Catholics - or butterfly away the death of his Orthodox brother Alexander, who IOTL was probably poisoned in 1603 when he was in his early thirties)?

Unlike @Augenis I actually think that Alexander Ostorgski ( or Ivan – an Orthodox version of OTL-Janusz) would jump to such an opportunity and it that can be made acceptable to at least a substantial part of Russian nobles and people but as already argued by @Russian I think it would be an extremely foolish proposition to be made by Sigismund.

First let me deal with issues put forward by @Augenis:

  1. The Ostrogski, or Ostrogiškiai, or whatever language you use, were loyalists of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and supported the Union of Brest, so even though they were Orthodox, they would likely not be accepted by the Russians.


Both Konstantin and his Orthodox son Alexander were opponents to the union of Brest ( in fact Konstantin was the leader of opposition to it going as far as demanding Sigismund to revoke the Uniate bishops chairs and give it back to “true Orthodox” bishops). So I don’t think Russians would have any issues with that.

As far as loyalism goes IOTL they were indeed staunch loyalists of Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth as they had a very solid reason to remain loyal. IOTL they were extremely wealthy magnates who had an extensive domain centered in Volhynia and directly or indirectly controlled most of Volhynian voivodship and large parts of Kiev voivodship as well as had lands and a very serious influence in other neighboring Podole, Braclaw and Ruthenian voivodships ( say Konstantin Ostrogski himself was marshal of Volhynia and voivode of Kiev for most of his life; both his sons Janosz and Alexander were voivodes of Volhynia as well as starostas of various powiats in Kiev voivodship).
In uncentralized PLC they were practically unopposed leaders of Southern Ruthenian nobility and if not ruled directly had a primary influence in today’s Ukraine west of Dniepr. Of course they were not the hugest fans of becoming subjects of much more centralized Russia that held its nobles in iron fist ( at least if you compare it with PLC “golden liberties”). But becoming a ruler of such a country is a whole other matter – suddenly you begin to really like Muscovite laws that give a Tsar so much power over his nobles ( as it is you who hold the others in iron fist, not the other way around).
So I highly doubt that if Ostrogski have a real possibility to become Russian Tsars that their OTL loyalism would stop them. I also don’t think that would be a large issue for Russians since loyalty to your current ruler is hardly a very objectionable trait (and switching sides in Russian-Lithuanian conflicts is somewhat of a common practice that was never really frowned upon).

2. Both Janusz and his father Konstanty opposed the intervention in the Time of Troubles and meddling with False Dmitry, so they have OTL basis for not wishing to accept the crown of the Russian tsardom.

As far as I know Konstantin at least was hosting False Dmitry I for some time in 1602 which doesn’t look an action of his active opponent.
But even if he indeed was opposed to the PLC intervention I hardly think that means he(or more accurately one of his sons) would have refused the throne if offered. Even if you genuinely think that an Intervention would not bring PLC much good it doesn’t mean that it can’t bring any good to you personally if an intervention is to support your own claim to the throne.
3. The Ostrogski died out with Janusz, so his dynasty would be short-lived anyway.
In order to be an acceptable candidate for Russians Ostrogski has to be Orthodox. Thus either we have a surviving Alexander or Orthodox Janusz.
IOTL Alexander had 5 sons at least one of whom can live if their father survives and thus their circumstances change. Even if they all die like they did IOTL, Alexander died before he was 35 and he probably would have had several more children had he survived.
With Janusz preventing his conversion to Catholicism means dramatically changing his fate. Even if do not wish to consider possible butterflies, IOTL Janusz married his third wife in 1612 with whom he had a son who died in infancy. If he becomes a primary candidate for Russian throne he probably would have to pick a wife from Russian nobility who may well give him a surviving son (or several).


However like @Russian I really don’t see any arguments for Sigismund to propose such a scheme. It creates a very uncomfortable situation for him or his descendents – a situation in which a ruler of Russia is a major landowner in largely Orthodox an East-Slavic-speaking part of the country as well as a scion of a clan, traditionally managing a large portion of it (and thus having inherited a web of vassals, connections and traditional alliances there).
Even if one of conditions of Sigismund’s support is cession of all lands in PLC to a relative – say if Alexander Ostrogski is Polish candidate for tsardom, he has to cede everything to Janusz (though forcing such a cession would be very tricky to implement without angering other magnates with violation of noble rights) – the situation doesn’t become much better ( a close relative of Russian Tsar virtually ruling over a large portion of country is almost every bit as scary if it was a Tsar himself).
Even if Sigismund has some sort of ironclad guaranties of personal loyalty of Ostrogski candidate (though such guarantees are pretty hard to imagine) situation is bound to explode in the next generation leading to very real possibility of losing an entire eastern part of PLC.


One might argue that situation is not unlike allowing Wladislaw to convert into Orthodoxy. While indeed there are risks of Russian Tsar Wladislaw claiming eastern part of PLC, at least from Sigismund’s point of view it can be outweighed by making his dynasty rule in yet another country. Promoting Ostrogski on the other hand does not seem to give Sigismund anything of value.
 
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If OP really wants Ostrogski Tsars I personally see one kind of plausible ( i. e. not very probably but not an ASB either) way of having it without a really early PoD. If Russia somehow manages to get Ruthenia then marrying a Tsar or heir of the throne to a daughter of a most prominent Southern Ruthenian family in order to cement Russian hold over it makes a lot of sense. If after that Tsar's family dies out, relatives of the late tsar’s widow are definitely one of the primary candidates for throne. IOTL in similar circumstances Boris Godunov managed to become a legitimate tsar. One would assume that much wealthier a much much more noble Ostrogski would also be able to do it.

While obviously this way to achieve the goal leads to a lot of other butterflies it seems to do the deal.

Now the question becomes how to make Russia annex a large enough part of Grand Duchy of Lithuania before Ostrogski die out. IOTL in 1574 Ivan IV or Russia (and later his son Ivan) was one of the primary candidates for Polish and thus Lithuanian crown after Henry Valois fled from Poland. Ivan was pretty popular among some parts of Polish and Lithuanian nobility but participating in a war against Grand Duchy of Lithuania didn’t really help him in his election campain. One would assume that had there been no Livonian war ( or at least no war between Russia and Lithuania) his chances of being elected would increase dramatically.


So all we have to do is to butterfly away (or end it before things turn ugly ) Russian-Lithuanian conflict during Livonian war. While butterflying away Russian desire to wage war against Livonian Order can be tricky (since Russia had a lot of reasons of wanting to crush the Order both economical and prestige-based concerning the Yuryev tribute) it is hardly necessary. Russia and Lithuania simply have to partition Livonian Order in a way to satisfy all sides. While that is easier said than done there are at least two possibilities for such an outcome.

First one requires Russia not agreeing to ceasefire in 1559 that IOTL gave Livonian Order time to regroup and wage alliances with Lithuania and Sweden. In such a scenario agreeing to partition Livonia giving Sigismund everything on the right bank of Dvina and Riga to avoid further compliactions hardly looks like an ASB.
The second variant requires Russia accepting Lithuanian peace offer that IOTL was rejected by Zemsky Sobor in 1566. It led to a similar partition of Livonia and IIRC even recognized Russia annexing of Polotsk.

After this a road to Ostrogski Tsars is pretty straightforward. After partitioning Livonian order with Lithuania Russia deals with its problems (Tartars and probably Swedes) until 1574 comes. In 1574 Ivan ( probably Ivan Ivanovich but for us it doesn’t really matter either way) is elected king of Poland and Grand Prince of Lithuania ( BTW, since IOTL union of Lublin was signed because Lithuania desperately needed Polish help in a war against Russia ATL it doesn’t happen so we don’t have PLC and Lithuania doesn’t cede most modern Ukraine as well as some other territories to Poland). In order to ingrain himself into nobility of GDoL Ivan marries Elisabeth Ostrogski - the daughter of Konstantin Ostrogski that IOTL married Jan Kiszka in 1575 and later Krzysztof Mikołaj Radziwiłł in 1593.


Since Ivan Ivanovich probably has to spend a lot of time in GDoL and Poland he can probably outlive his father (whether IOTL he was poisoned, got sick or indeed was killed by Ivan the Terrible, it can all be realistically butterflied away by change circumstances). IOTL Elisabeth had only one daughter in two marriages so it wouldn’t be that large implausibility to assume that she and Ivan Ivanovich (who IOTL was married 3 times but had no surviving children) would not have any sons. All Ivan’s brothers had fragile health and can die as per OTL or in similar time. So having no surviving male Moscow Rurikids by the time of Ivan Ivanovich ATL death should probably not be considered ASB. In such a case a father of late Tsar’s widow ( who also happens to be an extremely wealthy and influential noble) is probably the primary candidate to the throne.

Voila, we have Ostrogki tsars with PoD in the second half of XVI century.

P. S. While I don’t think a union of Russia, Lithuania and Poland can last, with Ostrogski support ( and later Ostrogski leadership) Russia can probably be able to preserve control over Grand Duchy of Lithuania thus altering the Eastern European history drammatically.
 
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