The Onward March of Freedom: The Cold War
- Thread starter Nightingale
- Start date
Hey viewers!
I want to say that this TL is not dead; I'm just prioritizing my other TL, "Let's Heal Together, America!", since its story is much shorter than "The Onward March of Freedom" and my other TL, "Yes We Will", and "Let's Heal Together, America!" is also a Future History TL, so I'm under pressure to finish it before the dates stated there come to pass (e.g. if the update showcases an event happening on May 29, 2019, then I have to make an update before that real-life date
!)
Thanks for understanding! Again, the TL is not dead; but I'm focusing first on LHTA before I can continue with "The Onward March of Freedom", and by extension, "Yes We Will". Thank you viewers and God Bless!
P.S. I hope you tune in to "Let's Heal Together, America!" while "The Onward March of Freedom" is not updating yet
I want to say that this TL is not dead; I'm just prioritizing my other TL, "Let's Heal Together, America!", since its story is much shorter than "The Onward March of Freedom" and my other TL, "Yes We Will", and "Let's Heal Together, America!" is also a Future History TL, so I'm under pressure to finish it before the dates stated there come to pass (e.g. if the update showcases an event happening on May 29, 2019, then I have to make an update before that real-life date
!)Thanks for understanding! Again, the TL is not dead; but I'm focusing first on LHTA before I can continue with "The Onward March of Freedom", and by extension, "Yes We Will". Thank you viewers and God Bless!
P.S. I hope you tune in to "Let's Heal Together, America!" while "The Onward March of Freedom" is not updating yet
Just making sure why was the Bell Trade Bill so bad for the Philippines?
It allowed unfettered activities by US companies in the Philippines, whilst not giving us the same right. That's unfair trade. So much for FDR's free trade beliefs.
Also will libertarian socialism and anarchism (not the Rothbardian kind) gain popularity in this TL?
No, they won't gan traction, esp. with the Avelino government providing a social democratic alternative to such beliefs. Abolishing government is not something Filipinos will accept, esp. with the Cold War running and with the people wanting a strong national government for their social programs. And any kind of socialism has been discredited ITTL with the communist insurgencies of the 1950s*.
*Cooperatives though and worker-stakeholder representation in companies are still allowed. These aren't against capitalism, as they aren't forced upon all enterprises.
EDIT: Representation of workers and other stakeholders in companies' board of directors are mandated by law. It's better this way. But the cooperative business model is not required. Sorry for not clarifying that.
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All kinds of socialism? There's lots of libertarian socialist and radical anarchist ideologies that have condemned state socialism. If state socialism is viewed in a worse light than the other two may be more popular. BTW what is your opinion on libertarian socialism and anarchism?
Yes, all kinds of socialism. I mean two factors converge: Filipinos dislike a weak government, which removes support for libertarianism, but they also have a blanket hate of anything related to "socialism", i.e. abolition of private property, that's why other kinds of socialism are disliked as well. They are a double whammy to this movement, all brought about by the communist insurgencies of the 1950s.
Filipinos ITTL support social democracy: strong welfare state, strong, big government, and strong labor rights but private enterprise is protected. This is actually what I like, and the events that have happened ITTL show that is certainly possible.
Yes @RandomWriterGuy, I'm economically very social democratic that does forget to recognize that no-strings attached welfare is a no-go for me (like all able-bodied guys must work, I included it here not because it is relevent to the discussion about socialism, but since you asked for my views, there )
And I made this belief into a scenario in my TL, i.e. Avelino Democrats
)And I made this belief into a scenario in my TL, i.e. Avelino Democrats
To the readers...
To commemorate his OTL contributions, you will see John McCain in important roles ITTL*, showcasimg how we must do those things,with some caveats because he is imperfect, i.e. on what he could have done better, which is essentially a challenge for us to do better in the spirit of respectability and decency he promoted.
*For that matter, Ted Kennedy as well.
To commemorate his OTL contributions, you will see John McCain in important roles ITTL*, showcasimg how we must do those things,with some caveats because he is imperfect, i.e. on what he could have done better, which is essentially a challenge for us to do better in the spirit of respectability and decency he promoted.
*For that matter, Ted Kennedy as well.
PART XXVIII - THE POSTWAR GEOPOLITICAL ALIGNMENTS
CHAPTER IV - THE COLD WAR
PART I - THE POSTWAR GEOPOLITICAL ALIGNMENTS
Excerpt from
World War II was the worst conflict in human history. 25 million people were killed and another 20 million were wounded. Many countries which participated in the war, such as Austria, Belgium, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and Poland, saw a third of their economy get devastated. China, in particular, lost the most civilians, with around half of the war’s casualties coming from it [1].
Thus, the victors of the war quickly worked to ensure a stable post-war future for the entire world, and with that, the United Nations was born in 1945, and would serve as the foremost supranational organization that handles international diplomacy. The UN would become much more successful in promoting world peace than its predecessor, the League of Nations, but within it, factionalism still arose, as the world became divided into two groups: The Capitalist West and the Socialist East.
THE COLD WAR TERRITORIAL CONFLICTS START
The Stockholm Conference among Allied Powers on August 9, 1944
At the Stockholm Conference [2] on August 9, 1944, the Allies, mainly represented by US President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, French Prime Minister Paul Reynauld, Chinese Generalissimo Jiang Jieshi, and Soviet Prime Minister Nikolai Bukharin [3], discussed the status of postwar Europe and Asia. Here, it was all but guaranteed that Europe would be divided into Capitalist and Socialist spheres.
After World War II, the Allies agreed that Soviet-occupied Finland, Poland and Czechoslovakia (after the Czechoslovaks allegedly voted “yes” in a rigged election to form a socialist government) would fall under the Soviet Union’s control. East Germany and East Berlin would go to the Soviet sphere of influence as well. Meanwhile, West Germany and Austria would go to the Western sphere of influence.
Meanwhile, in East Asia, there was not much territory the Soviets could get. While Manchuria did fall under the control of the Soviet Union and was placed under the leadership of the Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping as North China, the rest of China, now called South China, was controlled by Jiang Jieshi, and even Xinjiang and Tibet went to China as well in the late 1940s. Korea was put under the leadership of Syngman Rhee, who was ineffective at solving the numerous Korean social woes. In Japan, the LDP rose to power and, for sometime, ruled as its dominant party in the latter half of the 20th century, overseeing its transformation into one of the world's most developed economies over the period [4].
American DC-3 planes airlifting supplies to West Berlin, August 9, 1946
From the territorial divisions would the Cold War would start, with the 1946 Berlin Blockade serving as its spark. At the time, the Soviet Union blocked the Western Allies' railway, road, and canal access to the sectors of Berlin under Western control, and the West responded with a difficult but manageable airlift of supplies to West Berlin, aiming to remove the introduction of the Deutsche mark in the city. However, by the spring of 1947, it was clear that there were more supplies coming from air than there were coming through rail before the blockade, the Soviets ended the standoff. The Berlin Blockade was a defeat for Soviet diplomacy, and it also highlighted the brain drain that was occurring as many Germans fled to West Germany via the city.
The Berlin Wall in 1985, a sign of European Cold War divisions that lasted for more than 40 years
Thus, the Soviets built the most heavily-guarded national border in history, with West Berlin getting hemmed in by East German border walls. The Soviets also built heavily-guarded border walls at the Inner German Border, the Czechoslovak border with Austria, West Germany and Hungary, and the Finnish border with Australia, to send an antagonistic message to the West and to prevent further brain drain to the Western-aligned nations. The efforts were successful, and the Soviets managed to keep many intellectuals in the Socialist sphere and used them for Comintern-related economic and military programs.
The heavily-fortified border between North and South China in 1988
There were also some border skirmishes between Socialist North China and Nationalist South China, but no war resulted. However, in the atmosphere of fear in the aftermath of the Berlin Blockade, both sides responded with walls in each of the sides of their border.
The Berlin Blockade precipitated the Second Red Scare that increased West-East tensions.
The Berlin Blockade precipitated the Second Red Scare in the United States, though the atmosphere of fear was surprisingly less virulent in Western Europe, which was much closer to the Soviets than their transatlantic ally. From 1947, the West became adamantly opposed to the Soviet Union. However, in order to do that, the United States had to bolster its devastated European and Asian allies so that they can also stand on their own and defend themselves against the Soviets.
Europe's Cold War divisions by 1960
East Asia's Cold War divisions by 1960
This geopolitical calculus sorted the West and East into their own alliances. In 1948, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed to counter Soviet military strength in Europe, with the United States, United Kingdom, France, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, the Benelux countries, Italy, Yugoslavia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Portugal [5]. Later on, Greece, West Germany, Cyprus, Turkey, and Spain joined as well. In addition, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) was formed in 1954, with the United States, France, Britain, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, and Pakistan as its founding members [6]. At first, this organization sought to defeat communist insurgencies in their countries, which they did; afterward the organization went on a path similar to NATO’s to ensure that no insurgencies would happen again. China, Korea and Japan then joined treaty by 1961 and eventually turned the organization into the Asia Treaty Organization (ATO) by 1965 [7]. The Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) was also established between the United States, Britain, Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan in 1956, joined by more countries in the future, and the Australia-New Zealand-United Kingdom-United States (ANZUKUS) alliance was also established as well [6]. ATO, CENTO and ANZUKUS then merged with NATO to form the World Defense Treaty Organization (WDTO), and served as the main bulwark against Communism around the world. It combined the buildup of conventional and nuclear weapons to deter any Soviet military action.
As a response to the the formation of NATO, CENTO and SEATO, the Socialist Warsaw Pact was created in 1956. It included the Soviet Union, Finland, Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Mongolia, and North China. While the Warsaw Pact saw a full-fledge alliance among Socialist nations, leaders in the Soviet Union knew that their pact was fully outnumbered by NATO and SEATO (later ATO) forces in the West and East; however, calls for massive military spending were shot down by the moderate Bukharin-Tomsky-Rykov triumvirate, knowing it would drain resources from the Soviet consumer economy. To make sure they can still defend themselves against the West and still have a growing economy, they focused on increasing the stockpile of nuclear weapons while reducing the size of the Soviet conventional military and turning it into a still-sizeable professional armed force, its former soldiers reeducated and rehired in other jobs akin to the GI Bill in the United States. In the process, the Soviets were able to keep their military spending below 6% of their GDP and invest more resources in their non-military economy, all while deterring any Western military action. However, they still largely funded clandestine communist insurgencies across the globe in order to gain more allies for themselves [8].
THE MARSHALL PLAN: A PATH TO ECONOMIC PROSPERITY FOR THE WEST
The Marshall Plan gave much economic and military aid to Western-aligned nations in Europe and Asia.
To counter the Soviets across the world, US President Harry Truman signed the Allied Recovery Program (ARP), now commonly known as the Marshall Plan, into law on June 4, 1945. It gave 70 billion dollars and more of economic and military aid to pro-Western countries which economies were devastated by the Second World War, provided that there be general agreements in diplomacy and national policy in the recipient states. Thus, it gave enough leeway to extend aid to allied states ranging from democratic nations such as the United Kingdom, France, Philippines and Japan to authoritarian ones such as Italy and China [9]. The United States also offered to extend aid to East Germany, Finland, Poland and Czechoslovakia, but the Soviets blocked it, and countered with their Prochnost (Strength) Recovery Plan in order to lift up the Soviet puppet states' economies from the devastation of the Second World War [10].
The aid continued to flow well into the 1960s, and while most economists say that it only accelerated the general recovery of Western-aligned nations devastated by the Second World War, the structural changes it enacted in recipients’ economies had immense importance, as it forced the enactment of progressive social and economic reforms in them; however, each country’s political systems were allowed to be unchanged to prevent schisms in the Western Cold War bloc, hence the giving of economic and military aid to Benito Mussolini’s Italy and to Jiang Jieshi’s South China. The Marshall Plan also allowed recipient nations to end austerity measures and reduce political discontentment in the process, helping stabilize Western-aligned countries in the process. It also gave much funds for national defense for these countries [11].
There were also talks about giving economic aid even to developing countries not affected by the Second World War, and the proposal became law in 1961, to help developing countries, especially in Africa and the Middle East, become developed after their independence [12].
------------------------------------------
[1]. Far fewer than the 60 million IOTL. This is because there was no Operation Barbarossa/Soviet Front, and fewer European nations went to war ITTL. The title of the country most devastated by WWII goes to China ITTL, as half of WWII deaths come from them; the death toll is far lower than OTL's 20 million because the Communists had been defeated before 1937, that, along with Burma not falling to Japan and greater Chinese preparations, helps them win more victories and evacuate more Chinese citizens from the frontlines.
[2]. Butterflies.
[3]. Sucks Bukharin was IOTL dead long before the Yalta Conference. I couldn't get a better pic for this TL's conference; most had pics of Stalin, who was exiled ITTL because of Lenin's Testament in the mid-1920s.
[4]. Will put more detail about these in a future East Asian update. But as for Japan and Syngman Rhee's rule in Korea, it's development is like IOTL, for now. And yeah, Korea is not divided ITTL. More on that later, as said.
[5]. Since the European Theather did not extend into the Balkans and Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, they are not under Communist rule. The Soviet presence in Poland and Czechoslovakia spooks them, so they join NATO.
[6]. Will put more detail about these in a future Southeast Asian update. The developments here will be far different than IOTL without the fall of China to communism. A factor contributing to SEATO thriving ITTL is because it's structure more like NATO, which is more capable at responding at attacks against a member state ("an attack on one is an attack on all members, a more split-decision and centralized chain of command, etc.)
[7]. In a future East Asian update.
[8]. To be fair, even though ITTL's Warsaw Pact has fewer nations, it does have MUCH more people in it, since there was no Holodomor, no Stalinist military purges in 1937-1938, no Operation Barbarossa, and the fact that Manchuria in 1940 had a higher population than Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary combined. The Soviet economy is also far larger than IOTL because the economic growth ITTL was slower but steadier without Stalinist excesses, and because their economy was not devastated during ITTL's WWII, so again, the Soviets are, by and large, in a stronger position ITTL, even though they control less countries. And as said in the paragraph, the Bukharin-Rykov-Tomsky triumvirate is much more pragmatic and moderate than Stalin, so they can lead the Soviet Union to a better path. Note as well that the Soviet Union's entrepreneurial class has not been decimated like IOTL because Stalin does not rise to power, so they can help with the development of the Soviet Union after WWII.
[9]. IOTL, while aid was given to Allied Asian countries as well, the bulk of the aid went to Europe. ITTL, with Manuel L. Quezon's lobbying and with South (Nationalist) China adamant for aid to counter the Soviets and the North Chinese, the USA also gives much aid to Asian countries, and even larger than what Europe receives because of Eastern Asia's sheer size. Also, the United Kingdom does not get much aid compared to other devastated Allied countries, as its economy does not get gravely affected by WWII; in fact, it grows during the time because the war economy kickstarts them again, and Lend-Lease really helps them as well.
[10]. Like IOTL, only that the hardliner Molotov does not rise to position due to the Bukharin-Rykov-Tomsky triad being in power.
[11]. This is a stark difference from OTL. With Truman's Democrats controlling all levers of government, they are able to push for more socially and economically progressive reforms, which is in line with the Democratic Party's policies, as Hubert Humphrey said in 1948 IOTL,
This is also means that because the Democrats are in power and have done what they could to counteract Communism during the Berlin Blockade, and because the Korean War has been butterflied away, the Republicans can't do much to assail them for being "soft" on Communism, so this also means the US will be much more willing to tolerate Western-aligned left-wing governments rather than forming right-wing dictatorships anywhere across the globe.
Also, the aid continues for much longer because there is no Korean War. IOTL, the advent of the Korean War made Republicans (who controlled Congress IOTL) wary of giving more aid due to cost concerns. I retconned this and it is reflected in the Export-Oriented Reform update here.
[12]. Alternate decolonization development, esp. with Britain and France on much stronger footing, and since they will certainly want to aid the colonies and not create crapshows out of them. Note as well the isolationist leanings of the Republicans IOTL will not be in any position of power ITTL.
PART I - THE POSTWAR GEOPOLITICAL ALIGNMENTS
Excerpt from
Marshalling to Recovery: The World After the Second World War
By Ernest Cambridge
By Ernest Cambridge
World War II was the worst conflict in human history. 25 million people were killed and another 20 million were wounded. Many countries which participated in the war, such as Austria, Belgium, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and Poland, saw a third of their economy get devastated. China, in particular, lost the most civilians, with around half of the war’s casualties coming from it [1].
Thus, the victors of the war quickly worked to ensure a stable post-war future for the entire world, and with that, the United Nations was born in 1945, and would serve as the foremost supranational organization that handles international diplomacy. The UN would become much more successful in promoting world peace than its predecessor, the League of Nations, but within it, factionalism still arose, as the world became divided into two groups: The Capitalist West and the Socialist East.
THE COLD WAR TERRITORIAL CONFLICTS START
The Stockholm Conference among Allied Powers on August 9, 1944
At the Stockholm Conference [2] on August 9, 1944, the Allies, mainly represented by US President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, French Prime Minister Paul Reynauld, Chinese Generalissimo Jiang Jieshi, and Soviet Prime Minister Nikolai Bukharin [3], discussed the status of postwar Europe and Asia. Here, it was all but guaranteed that Europe would be divided into Capitalist and Socialist spheres.
After World War II, the Allies agreed that Soviet-occupied Finland, Poland and Czechoslovakia (after the Czechoslovaks allegedly voted “yes” in a rigged election to form a socialist government) would fall under the Soviet Union’s control. East Germany and East Berlin would go to the Soviet sphere of influence as well. Meanwhile, West Germany and Austria would go to the Western sphere of influence.
Meanwhile, in East Asia, there was not much territory the Soviets could get. While Manchuria did fall under the control of the Soviet Union and was placed under the leadership of the Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping as North China, the rest of China, now called South China, was controlled by Jiang Jieshi, and even Xinjiang and Tibet went to China as well in the late 1940s. Korea was put under the leadership of Syngman Rhee, who was ineffective at solving the numerous Korean social woes. In Japan, the LDP rose to power and, for sometime, ruled as its dominant party in the latter half of the 20th century, overseeing its transformation into one of the world's most developed economies over the period [4].
American DC-3 planes airlifting supplies to West Berlin, August 9, 1946
From the territorial divisions would the Cold War would start, with the 1946 Berlin Blockade serving as its spark. At the time, the Soviet Union blocked the Western Allies' railway, road, and canal access to the sectors of Berlin under Western control, and the West responded with a difficult but manageable airlift of supplies to West Berlin, aiming to remove the introduction of the Deutsche mark in the city. However, by the spring of 1947, it was clear that there were more supplies coming from air than there were coming through rail before the blockade, the Soviets ended the standoff. The Berlin Blockade was a defeat for Soviet diplomacy, and it also highlighted the brain drain that was occurring as many Germans fled to West Germany via the city.
The Berlin Wall in 1985, a sign of European Cold War divisions that lasted for more than 40 years
Thus, the Soviets built the most heavily-guarded national border in history, with West Berlin getting hemmed in by East German border walls. The Soviets also built heavily-guarded border walls at the Inner German Border, the Czechoslovak border with Austria, West Germany and Hungary, and the Finnish border with Australia, to send an antagonistic message to the West and to prevent further brain drain to the Western-aligned nations. The efforts were successful, and the Soviets managed to keep many intellectuals in the Socialist sphere and used them for Comintern-related economic and military programs.
The heavily-fortified border between North and South China in 1988
There were also some border skirmishes between Socialist North China and Nationalist South China, but no war resulted. However, in the atmosphere of fear in the aftermath of the Berlin Blockade, both sides responded with walls in each of the sides of their border.
The Berlin Blockade precipitated the Second Red Scare that increased West-East tensions.
The Berlin Blockade precipitated the Second Red Scare in the United States, though the atmosphere of fear was surprisingly less virulent in Western Europe, which was much closer to the Soviets than their transatlantic ally. From 1947, the West became adamantly opposed to the Soviet Union. However, in order to do that, the United States had to bolster its devastated European and Asian allies so that they can also stand on their own and defend themselves against the Soviets.
Europe's Cold War divisions by 1960
East Asia's Cold War divisions by 1960
This geopolitical calculus sorted the West and East into their own alliances. In 1948, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed to counter Soviet military strength in Europe, with the United States, United Kingdom, France, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, the Benelux countries, Italy, Yugoslavia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Portugal [5]. Later on, Greece, West Germany, Cyprus, Turkey, and Spain joined as well. In addition, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) was formed in 1954, with the United States, France, Britain, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, and Pakistan as its founding members [6]. At first, this organization sought to defeat communist insurgencies in their countries, which they did; afterward the organization went on a path similar to NATO’s to ensure that no insurgencies would happen again. China, Korea and Japan then joined treaty by 1961 and eventually turned the organization into the Asia Treaty Organization (ATO) by 1965 [7]. The Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) was also established between the United States, Britain, Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan in 1956, joined by more countries in the future, and the Australia-New Zealand-United Kingdom-United States (ANZUKUS) alliance was also established as well [6]. ATO, CENTO and ANZUKUS then merged with NATO to form the World Defense Treaty Organization (WDTO), and served as the main bulwark against Communism around the world. It combined the buildup of conventional and nuclear weapons to deter any Soviet military action.
As a response to the the formation of NATO, CENTO and SEATO, the Socialist Warsaw Pact was created in 1956. It included the Soviet Union, Finland, Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Mongolia, and North China. While the Warsaw Pact saw a full-fledge alliance among Socialist nations, leaders in the Soviet Union knew that their pact was fully outnumbered by NATO and SEATO (later ATO) forces in the West and East; however, calls for massive military spending were shot down by the moderate Bukharin-Tomsky-Rykov triumvirate, knowing it would drain resources from the Soviet consumer economy. To make sure they can still defend themselves against the West and still have a growing economy, they focused on increasing the stockpile of nuclear weapons while reducing the size of the Soviet conventional military and turning it into a still-sizeable professional armed force, its former soldiers reeducated and rehired in other jobs akin to the GI Bill in the United States. In the process, the Soviets were able to keep their military spending below 6% of their GDP and invest more resources in their non-military economy, all while deterring any Western military action. However, they still largely funded clandestine communist insurgencies across the globe in order to gain more allies for themselves [8].
THE MARSHALL PLAN: A PATH TO ECONOMIC PROSPERITY FOR THE WEST
The Marshall Plan gave much economic and military aid to Western-aligned nations in Europe and Asia.
To counter the Soviets across the world, US President Harry Truman signed the Allied Recovery Program (ARP), now commonly known as the Marshall Plan, into law on June 4, 1945. It gave 70 billion dollars and more of economic and military aid to pro-Western countries which economies were devastated by the Second World War, provided that there be general agreements in diplomacy and national policy in the recipient states. Thus, it gave enough leeway to extend aid to allied states ranging from democratic nations such as the United Kingdom, France, Philippines and Japan to authoritarian ones such as Italy and China [9]. The United States also offered to extend aid to East Germany, Finland, Poland and Czechoslovakia, but the Soviets blocked it, and countered with their Prochnost (Strength) Recovery Plan in order to lift up the Soviet puppet states' economies from the devastation of the Second World War [10].
The aid continued to flow well into the 1960s, and while most economists say that it only accelerated the general recovery of Western-aligned nations devastated by the Second World War, the structural changes it enacted in recipients’ economies had immense importance, as it forced the enactment of progressive social and economic reforms in them; however, each country’s political systems were allowed to be unchanged to prevent schisms in the Western Cold War bloc, hence the giving of economic and military aid to Benito Mussolini’s Italy and to Jiang Jieshi’s South China. The Marshall Plan also allowed recipient nations to end austerity measures and reduce political discontentment in the process, helping stabilize Western-aligned countries in the process. It also gave much funds for national defense for these countries [11].
There were also talks about giving economic aid even to developing countries not affected by the Second World War, and the proposal became law in 1961, to help developing countries, especially in Africa and the Middle East, become developed after their independence [12].
------------------------------------------
[1]. Far fewer than the 60 million IOTL. This is because there was no Operation Barbarossa/Soviet Front, and fewer European nations went to war ITTL. The title of the country most devastated by WWII goes to China ITTL, as half of WWII deaths come from them; the death toll is far lower than OTL's 20 million because the Communists had been defeated before 1937, that, along with Burma not falling to Japan and greater Chinese preparations, helps them win more victories and evacuate more Chinese citizens from the frontlines.
[2]. Butterflies.
[3]. Sucks Bukharin was IOTL dead long before the Yalta Conference. I couldn't get a better pic for this TL's conference; most had pics of Stalin, who was exiled ITTL because of Lenin's Testament in the mid-1920s.
[4]. Will put more detail about these in a future East Asian update. But as for Japan and Syngman Rhee's rule in Korea, it's development is like IOTL, for now. And yeah, Korea is not divided ITTL. More on that later, as said.
[5]. Since the European Theather did not extend into the Balkans and Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, they are not under Communist rule. The Soviet presence in Poland and Czechoslovakia spooks them, so they join NATO.
[6]. Will put more detail about these in a future Southeast Asian update. The developments here will be far different than IOTL without the fall of China to communism. A factor contributing to SEATO thriving ITTL is because it's structure more like NATO, which is more capable at responding at attacks against a member state ("an attack on one is an attack on all members, a more split-decision and centralized chain of command, etc.)
[7]. In a future East Asian update.
[8]. To be fair, even though ITTL's Warsaw Pact has fewer nations, it does have MUCH more people in it, since there was no Holodomor, no Stalinist military purges in 1937-1938, no Operation Barbarossa, and the fact that Manchuria in 1940 had a higher population than Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary combined. The Soviet economy is also far larger than IOTL because the economic growth ITTL was slower but steadier without Stalinist excesses, and because their economy was not devastated during ITTL's WWII, so again, the Soviets are, by and large, in a stronger position ITTL, even though they control less countries. And as said in the paragraph, the Bukharin-Rykov-Tomsky triumvirate is much more pragmatic and moderate than Stalin, so they can lead the Soviet Union to a better path. Note as well that the Soviet Union's entrepreneurial class has not been decimated like IOTL because Stalin does not rise to power, so they can help with the development of the Soviet Union after WWII.
[9]. IOTL, while aid was given to Allied Asian countries as well, the bulk of the aid went to Europe. ITTL, with Manuel L. Quezon's lobbying and with South (Nationalist) China adamant for aid to counter the Soviets and the North Chinese, the USA also gives much aid to Asian countries, and even larger than what Europe receives because of Eastern Asia's sheer size. Also, the United Kingdom does not get much aid compared to other devastated Allied countries, as its economy does not get gravely affected by WWII; in fact, it grows during the time because the war economy kickstarts them again, and Lend-Lease really helps them as well.
[10]. Like IOTL, only that the hardliner Molotov does not rise to position due to the Bukharin-Rykov-Tomsky triad being in power.
[11]. This is a stark difference from OTL. With Truman's Democrats controlling all levers of government, they are able to push for more socially and economically progressive reforms, which is in line with the Democratic Party's policies, as Hubert Humphrey said in 1948 IOTL,
This is also means that because the Democrats are in power and have done what they could to counteract Communism during the Berlin Blockade, and because the Korean War has been butterflied away, the Republicans can't do much to assail them for being "soft" on Communism, so this also means the US will be much more willing to tolerate Western-aligned left-wing governments rather than forming right-wing dictatorships anywhere across the globe.
Also, the aid continues for much longer because there is no Korean War. IOTL, the advent of the Korean War made Republicans (who controlled Congress IOTL) wary of giving more aid due to cost concerns. I retconned this and it is reflected in the Export-Oriented Reform update here.
[12]. Alternate decolonization development, esp. with Britain and France on much stronger footing, and since they will certainly want to aid the colonies and not create crapshows out of them. Note as well the isolationist leanings of the Republicans IOTL will not be in any position of power ITTL.
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PART XXIX - THE EAST ASIANS’ ROAD TO PROSPEROUS INDEPENDENCE
CHAPTER IV - THE COLD WAR
PART II - THE EAST ASIANS’ ROAD TO PROSPEROUS INDEPENDENCE
Excerpt from
The Oriental Miracle: East Asia After the Second World War
By Heather Long
After the Second World War, East and Southeast Asia was immensely devastated by the Second World War. Millions had been killed and much of their cities laid in ruins, and the future seemed bleak on many. However, in the years after, East and Southeast Asia rapidly recovered and became one of the wealthiest regions on Earth and became reliable economic and ATO/WDTO military allies of the West.
Syngman Rhee's tenure, while seeing some gradual recovery from the Second World War,
saw instability and rampant corruption took hold in Korea.
In Korea, the Americans put Syngman Rhee in power from the beginning of the country’s independence in 1948. While the general economy of Korea grew during the 1950s and it joined ATO in 1961, rampant corruption and the resultant economic inefficiencies slowed down growth and increased discontentment against the government; thus, by 1960, amid student protests and demonstrations, President Rhee resigned and an interim government took power. However, another period of instability ensued, and Army General Park Chung-Hee overthrew it with a coup on May 16, 1961. Park implemented robust economic growth policies that were popular with the populace, but calls for democracy and massive protests from mid-1962 to 1963 forced Park to conduct elections by November 3, 1964, especially for the reason to give legitimacy to the Park government. Democratic Party National Assembly Senator Yun Bo-seon, a noted pro-democracy and progressive fighter, ran against him for that election. Park Chung-hee and his allies were not worried about the elections and expected to win. However, Election Day would dispel all those assumptions.
The Korean political world and most especially Yun himself were shocked by the results and three further recounts that he had won the Presidential election, Korea choosing to reject strongman politics and accept a pro-democracy figure as their leader by just 216,150 votes [1]; the mainly urban and more liberal Seoul-Incheon and Pyongyang areas, along with other central Korean provinces, turned out for Yun, while the more rural southern and northern tips (due to anticommunist conservative rhetoric in North China-USSR border provinces) of the country voted for Park. Many expected Park to the reject the results, but the American government vowed to retract aid if such power grab occurred. Thus, Park subsequently conceded accepted the results. Yun’s Democratic Party also won the majority of downballot elections and controlled the National Assembly, achieving full control of local and national politics in the near future. To defuse tensions with the military, he appointed Park to the Ministry of Defense and other pro-Park figures in some government positions but ensuring that progressives controlled the majority of cabinet positions.
With avid American support, he was able to implement democratic and progressive civil rights and economic reforms in legislation and passed constitutional amendments enshrining such protections. He also accepted the good segments of the military government’s economic and social policy. Yun implemented the first Five Year Plan, ushering in the transformation of South Korea to a Philippine-like export economy and utilizing the trade revenue modernizing the impoverished nation. He also enacted massive military spending to placate the military and counter the North Chinese and the Soviets, whom they have borders with. Thus, the Korean economy entered what is now called “The Miracle on the Han River”, with Yun’s robust economic initiatives would turn Korea’s into a social democratic powerhouse of East Asia [2].
The Liberal Democratic Party dominated Japanese politics for the entire Cold War era.
Meanwhile, matters were quieter in Japan, where the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) became the dominant party for much of the duration of the Cold War. The LDP, under American demands, enacted progressive socioeconomic reforms and rejected a pacifist proposal to the Japanese constitution banning non-defensive warfare, and Japan also joined the Asian Treaty Organization (ATO) soon afterward to counteract the Soviets to the north. Afterward, the Japanese economic miracle occurred, turning the devastated former Axis country into one of Asia’s economic powerhouses, pumping out high-quality exports year after year [3].
Khorloogiin Choibalsan followed the moderate socialist policies enacted in the Soviet Union.
Meanwhile, in Mongolia which did not see any combat in the Second World War, Khorloogiin Choibalsan mainly followed the Soviet Bukharin-Rykov-Tomsky triumvirate in implemented moderate socialist reforms in the country, deemphasizing a large conventional military and focusing on a relatively small but professional conventional military and the placement of Soviet nuclear missiles in the country to invest more resources into science and technology and the consumer economy. It also made freedom of religion commonplace in the country to prevent any religious uprisings in the country, as had been implemented in the Soviet Union [4]. The country then joined the Warsaw Pact in 1956.
Generalissimo Jiang Jieshi led the South China's post-WWII economic boom.
South China, out of all East Asian countries, was the most devastated and initially struggled to grow in the late 1940s because of rampant corruption and the existence of many warlords in the country. Its most industrialized lands in Manchuria all went to China due to the 1947 Beijing Agreement, which divided North and South China along the border at Hebei [5] Province and cutting through a small part of Inner Mongolia, leaving the more impoverished areas of China to the South. Thus, in 1949, Jiang Jieshi held bogus elections aimed at entrenching his power and overthrowing all warlords in the country, which succeeded; he consolidated his power over the entire political apparatus of the country to implement more reforms aimed at raising the country’s economy, and, in the process, raising his popularity [6].
Helping matters was the Marshall Plan. The Plan gave South China 30 billion of US dollars in aid and low-interest loans and more from 1949. They also received 15 billion US dollars of military equipment and thousands of military advisors to train the country’s armed forces, and China also joined ATO in 1961. About four million volunteer soldiers were also inducted into the all-professional Chinese Armed Forces, much of them deployed to South China’s border with North China, Mongolia, and their direct border with the Soviet Union [7].
To put the aid to good use, Jiang Jieshi created the Ministry of Economic Planning and the Bureau of Strategic Industries that resorted under it, which used the majority of the funds for economic development. This economic planning body focused on a domestic-oriented economic growth model aimed at attracting foreign investments and improving the country’s businesses. The mining, steel, electricity, oil, and arms industries were largely nationalized and received heavy investments, and the agricultural sector saw a major land reform giving land to many peasants and which gave them ample agricultural equipment and education, thus creating a new middle class that would then invest their money into other industries. Mining deposits were fully exploited as long as environmental regulations are followed. South China’s Two Five-Year Plans for the 1950s saw massive growth in the country’s heavy industry and resulted in growth rates of up to 15% during this time. Infrastructure was also given much priority, and the country implemented high-speed rail by 1960. Afterward, the Five-Year Plans of the 1960s focused on implementing reforms aimed at rapidly expanding the country’s light/consumer industry and services, and implementing business policies that heavily attracted foreign investment by that time, resulting to another batch of high growth rates of up to 15% during this era.
Nanjing Road in Shanghai, China in 1970, where many booming businesses located along it as China's economy boomed.
Of much importance was the progressive socioeconomic reforms Jiang Jieshi enacted as a requirement to receive Marshall Plan aid. A progressive tax rate was introduced, environmental regulations, strong labor protections and living wages for all workers. Universal kinder-to-college education, housing, a jobs guarantee and health care were also enacted, and massive infrastructure spending were enacted, which enabled South China’s economic gains to extend even to low-income people. Nuclear and hydroelectric power became dominant in the country, slowing the rise in greenhouse gas emissions in the country and which gave the country long-lasting energy security. Public transport was given higher priority over cars, with all cities in the country having subways and bus rapid transit (BRT) systems by the end of the 1960s. Starting as a backwater economy in the 1940s, China was now one of the world’s most promising emerging economies, and there was no way to go but up in terms of economic growth and social mobility in the country [8].
Hong Kong (left) and Macau (right) grew into Asian Tigers as well, although wealth inequality was rampant.
Hong Kong and Macau, on the other hand, pursued more laissez-faire export-oriented economic policies, which, while ensuring rapid growth and development for the port cities into Asian tigers, induced high economic inequality and an underground crime scene. All these regressive economic policies were rectified after they joined China by the 1990s after the British and Portuguese chose to hand over the two cities to China in 1997 and 1999, respectively [9].
Deng Xiaoping, Liu Shaoqi, and Zhou Enlai also enacted moderate socialist reforms in North China.
Meanwhile, in North China, the Chinese Communist Party under General Secretary Liu Shaoqi, Prime Minister Deng Xiaoping, and President Zhou Enlai implemented moderate socialist reforms modeled under the Soviet Union’s tutelage. Most of the economy was largely nationalized but farmers were largely allowed to sell grain at their own prices. Services were put under government control and the country received aid from the Soviet Union to rebuild the nation after the Second World War. While growth was not as large as South China’s, the economy of North China still grew by around seven to eight percent from 1949, and like the rest of the Warsaw Pact, which it joined in 1956, it deemphasized a large conventional army and favored the placement of nuclear missiles and the creation of a relatively small but professional armed forces to invest more resources into the consumer economy [10].
The North China-South China border in Inner Mongolia
Deng, Liu and Zhou also fostered the creation of the North-South Fortified Border Wall and the North China-Korea Border wall from 1950 to 1953. It was the most heavily-guarded border in the world along with the Inner German and Berlin Wall borders in Europe. These stemmed the brain drain that had occurred after the People's Republic of China had been established in Manchuria, and enabled them to use what was left of their intellectual class for their economic policies [11].
By the 1960s, all of East Asia strongly recovered from the Second World War and became economic powerhouses and would play a massive role in the world economy for decades to come.
------------------------------------------
[1]. I flipped the results from OTL South Korea, which saw Park winning and then IOTL South Korean democracy went downhill from there.
[2]. This also dispels the notion that countries can only become developed if there is a strongman in power, esp. in ATL Korea. And most of all, in ATL's Philippines' economic model, which Yun basically copied.
[3]. Japan is mostly like OTL, but without Article 9, the ATL development mentioned in the previous update.
[4]. Since Stalin was not in power ITTL, Choibalsan would not pursue Stalinist policies in Mongolia when he took power.
[5]. At least Beijing's not under communist control ITTL.
[6]. I saw this POD in a Nationalist China thread I searched, so I thought I should put it here.
[7]. Okay, I retconned the amount of the entire Marshall Plan; it's now at 70 billion dollars total, 30 billion going to South China ITTL.
[8]. The implementation of social democratic market-oriented reforms greatly helps China and starts its economic boom +20 years earlier than IOTL
[9]. Largely like OTL.
[10]. As said in this update, much of the Chinese Communist Party leadership died during the Long March. This is the POD that ensures Nationalist control over much of China's territory post-WWII. Only the younger moderates, Deng, Liu and Zhou, remain here, as Mao Zedong dies during the time.
[11]. I've yet to detail into the "moderate socialist" Soviet economic policy here; that's reserved for a future Soviet Union update.
PART II - THE EAST ASIANS’ ROAD TO PROSPEROUS INDEPENDENCE
Excerpt from
The Oriental Miracle: East Asia After the Second World War
By Heather Long
Syngman Rhee's tenure, while seeing some gradual recovery from the Second World War,
saw instability and rampant corruption took hold in Korea.
In Korea, the Americans put Syngman Rhee in power from the beginning of the country’s independence in 1948. While the general economy of Korea grew during the 1950s and it joined ATO in 1961, rampant corruption and the resultant economic inefficiencies slowed down growth and increased discontentment against the government; thus, by 1960, amid student protests and demonstrations, President Rhee resigned and an interim government took power. However, another period of instability ensued, and Army General Park Chung-Hee overthrew it with a coup on May 16, 1961. Park implemented robust economic growth policies that were popular with the populace, but calls for democracy and massive protests from mid-1962 to 1963 forced Park to conduct elections by November 3, 1964, especially for the reason to give legitimacy to the Park government. Democratic Party National Assembly Senator Yun Bo-seon, a noted pro-democracy and progressive fighter, ran against him for that election. Park Chung-hee and his allies were not worried about the elections and expected to win. However, Election Day would dispel all those assumptions.
The Korean political world and most especially Yun himself were shocked by the results and three further recounts that he had won the Presidential election, Korea choosing to reject strongman politics and accept a pro-democracy figure as their leader by just 216,150 votes [1]; the mainly urban and more liberal Seoul-Incheon and Pyongyang areas, along with other central Korean provinces, turned out for Yun, while the more rural southern and northern tips (due to anticommunist conservative rhetoric in North China-USSR border provinces) of the country voted for Park. Many expected Park to the reject the results, but the American government vowed to retract aid if such power grab occurred. Thus, Park subsequently conceded accepted the results. Yun’s Democratic Party also won the majority of downballot elections and controlled the National Assembly, achieving full control of local and national politics in the near future. To defuse tensions with the military, he appointed Park to the Ministry of Defense and other pro-Park figures in some government positions but ensuring that progressives controlled the majority of cabinet positions.
With avid American support, he was able to implement democratic and progressive civil rights and economic reforms in legislation and passed constitutional amendments enshrining such protections. He also accepted the good segments of the military government’s economic and social policy. Yun implemented the first Five Year Plan, ushering in the transformation of South Korea to a Philippine-like export economy and utilizing the trade revenue modernizing the impoverished nation. He also enacted massive military spending to placate the military and counter the North Chinese and the Soviets, whom they have borders with. Thus, the Korean economy entered what is now called “The Miracle on the Han River”, with Yun’s robust economic initiatives would turn Korea’s into a social democratic powerhouse of East Asia [2].
The Liberal Democratic Party dominated Japanese politics for the entire Cold War era.
Meanwhile, matters were quieter in Japan, where the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) became the dominant party for much of the duration of the Cold War. The LDP, under American demands, enacted progressive socioeconomic reforms and rejected a pacifist proposal to the Japanese constitution banning non-defensive warfare, and Japan also joined the Asian Treaty Organization (ATO) soon afterward to counteract the Soviets to the north. Afterward, the Japanese economic miracle occurred, turning the devastated former Axis country into one of Asia’s economic powerhouses, pumping out high-quality exports year after year [3].
Khorloogiin Choibalsan followed the moderate socialist policies enacted in the Soviet Union.
Meanwhile, in Mongolia which did not see any combat in the Second World War, Khorloogiin Choibalsan mainly followed the Soviet Bukharin-Rykov-Tomsky triumvirate in implemented moderate socialist reforms in the country, deemphasizing a large conventional military and focusing on a relatively small but professional conventional military and the placement of Soviet nuclear missiles in the country to invest more resources into science and technology and the consumer economy. It also made freedom of religion commonplace in the country to prevent any religious uprisings in the country, as had been implemented in the Soviet Union [4]. The country then joined the Warsaw Pact in 1956.
Generalissimo Jiang Jieshi led the South China's post-WWII economic boom.
South China, out of all East Asian countries, was the most devastated and initially struggled to grow in the late 1940s because of rampant corruption and the existence of many warlords in the country. Its most industrialized lands in Manchuria all went to China due to the 1947 Beijing Agreement, which divided North and South China along the border at Hebei [5] Province and cutting through a small part of Inner Mongolia, leaving the more impoverished areas of China to the South. Thus, in 1949, Jiang Jieshi held bogus elections aimed at entrenching his power and overthrowing all warlords in the country, which succeeded; he consolidated his power over the entire political apparatus of the country to implement more reforms aimed at raising the country’s economy, and, in the process, raising his popularity [6].
Helping matters was the Marshall Plan. The Plan gave South China 30 billion of US dollars in aid and low-interest loans and more from 1949. They also received 15 billion US dollars of military equipment and thousands of military advisors to train the country’s armed forces, and China also joined ATO in 1961. About four million volunteer soldiers were also inducted into the all-professional Chinese Armed Forces, much of them deployed to South China’s border with North China, Mongolia, and their direct border with the Soviet Union [7].
To put the aid to good use, Jiang Jieshi created the Ministry of Economic Planning and the Bureau of Strategic Industries that resorted under it, which used the majority of the funds for economic development. This economic planning body focused on a domestic-oriented economic growth model aimed at attracting foreign investments and improving the country’s businesses. The mining, steel, electricity, oil, and arms industries were largely nationalized and received heavy investments, and the agricultural sector saw a major land reform giving land to many peasants and which gave them ample agricultural equipment and education, thus creating a new middle class that would then invest their money into other industries. Mining deposits were fully exploited as long as environmental regulations are followed. South China’s Two Five-Year Plans for the 1950s saw massive growth in the country’s heavy industry and resulted in growth rates of up to 15% during this time. Infrastructure was also given much priority, and the country implemented high-speed rail by 1960. Afterward, the Five-Year Plans of the 1960s focused on implementing reforms aimed at rapidly expanding the country’s light/consumer industry and services, and implementing business policies that heavily attracted foreign investment by that time, resulting to another batch of high growth rates of up to 15% during this era.
Nanjing Road in Shanghai, China in 1970, where many booming businesses located along it as China's economy boomed.
Of much importance was the progressive socioeconomic reforms Jiang Jieshi enacted as a requirement to receive Marshall Plan aid. A progressive tax rate was introduced, environmental regulations, strong labor protections and living wages for all workers. Universal kinder-to-college education, housing, a jobs guarantee and health care were also enacted, and massive infrastructure spending were enacted, which enabled South China’s economic gains to extend even to low-income people. Nuclear and hydroelectric power became dominant in the country, slowing the rise in greenhouse gas emissions in the country and which gave the country long-lasting energy security. Public transport was given higher priority over cars, with all cities in the country having subways and bus rapid transit (BRT) systems by the end of the 1960s. Starting as a backwater economy in the 1940s, China was now one of the world’s most promising emerging economies, and there was no way to go but up in terms of economic growth and social mobility in the country [8].
Hong Kong (left) and Macau (right) grew into Asian Tigers as well, although wealth inequality was rampant.
Hong Kong and Macau, on the other hand, pursued more laissez-faire export-oriented economic policies, which, while ensuring rapid growth and development for the port cities into Asian tigers, induced high economic inequality and an underground crime scene. All these regressive economic policies were rectified after they joined China by the 1990s after the British and Portuguese chose to hand over the two cities to China in 1997 and 1999, respectively [9].
Deng Xiaoping, Liu Shaoqi, and Zhou Enlai also enacted moderate socialist reforms in North China.
Meanwhile, in North China, the Chinese Communist Party under General Secretary Liu Shaoqi, Prime Minister Deng Xiaoping, and President Zhou Enlai implemented moderate socialist reforms modeled under the Soviet Union’s tutelage. Most of the economy was largely nationalized but farmers were largely allowed to sell grain at their own prices. Services were put under government control and the country received aid from the Soviet Union to rebuild the nation after the Second World War. While growth was not as large as South China’s, the economy of North China still grew by around seven to eight percent from 1949, and like the rest of the Warsaw Pact, which it joined in 1956, it deemphasized a large conventional army and favored the placement of nuclear missiles and the creation of a relatively small but professional armed forces to invest more resources into the consumer economy [10].
The North China-South China border in Inner Mongolia
Deng, Liu and Zhou also fostered the creation of the North-South Fortified Border Wall and the North China-Korea Border wall from 1950 to 1953. It was the most heavily-guarded border in the world along with the Inner German and Berlin Wall borders in Europe. These stemmed the brain drain that had occurred after the People's Republic of China had been established in Manchuria, and enabled them to use what was left of their intellectual class for their economic policies [11].
By the 1960s, all of East Asia strongly recovered from the Second World War and became economic powerhouses and would play a massive role in the world economy for decades to come.
------------------------------------------
[1]. I flipped the results from OTL South Korea, which saw Park winning and then IOTL South Korean democracy went downhill from there.
[2]. This also dispels the notion that countries can only become developed if there is a strongman in power, esp. in ATL Korea. And most of all, in ATL's Philippines' economic model, which Yun basically copied.
[3]. Japan is mostly like OTL, but without Article 9, the ATL development mentioned in the previous update.
[4]. Since Stalin was not in power ITTL, Choibalsan would not pursue Stalinist policies in Mongolia when he took power.
[5]. At least Beijing's not under communist control ITTL.
[6]. I saw this POD in a Nationalist China thread I searched, so I thought I should put it here.
[7]. Okay, I retconned the amount of the entire Marshall Plan; it's now at 70 billion dollars total, 30 billion going to South China ITTL.
[8]. The implementation of social democratic market-oriented reforms greatly helps China and starts its economic boom +20 years earlier than IOTL
[9]. Largely like OTL.
[10]. As said in this update, much of the Chinese Communist Party leadership died during the Long March. This is the POD that ensures Nationalist control over much of China's territory post-WWII. Only the younger moderates, Deng, Liu and Zhou, remain here, as Mao Zedong dies during the time.
[11]. I've yet to detail into the "moderate socialist" Soviet economic policy here; that's reserved for a future Soviet Union update.
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The perception that there's more civil liberties and economic progress in the Western Bloc. To be fair, it is true, even though the Socialist Bloc is economically growing right now.
Yeah, South China's capital is in Nanjing, as was Nationalist China's capital even before WWII started. North China's is at Harbin.
Will China be more decentralized in this TL? The Tibetans and Uighurs would likely be better off than OTL, but would the nationalist central government still stay to suppress local dialects in favor of Beijing-region mandarin?