The North wins Bull Run?

EMTSATX

Banned
First, I apologize for starting two threads about the war in one day but.

What if McDowell wins a slightly better than otl Confederate victory. Hope far do they get? Effect on test of the war?
 
It would probably have given the north more confidence. Bull Run was a big shock for them. That being said, I don't really know if it would have had any long lasting affects for the war.
 
It could well hurt the South badly although they won't lose their capital that quick. What it might well do is screw with their finances. If they lose an early battle badly it would convince at least some people, if not many, that it is better to invest in other things outside of CSA bonds. It might also reduce some of the fighting spirit of the Southern soldier.
 
The ability of the CSA to do well in the early battles of the war gave them enough "street cred" to persuade the British to tilt their neutrality in ways that assisted the CSA. Had the CSA lost Bull Run, and other early battles I expect the British government, in spite of their other reasons to root for the CSA would have been less generous with financial openness, turning a blind eye to arms sales and so forth including granting the CSA belligerent status. The French will, as OTL, follow the British lead. This makes the CSA less viable, and of course it boosts Union morale while going against the CSA. The butterflies could be huge - if the CSA does not use this, and other early victories, to buy in to the concept that one Confederate soldier is worth five Yankees, they may address a more defensive as opposed to offensive strategy which might work better for them. It could avoid driving Kentucky out of neutrality as well as the offensive spirit that leads to many disasterous campaigns.
 
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