The North Star is Red: a Wallace Presidency, KMT Victory, Alternate Cold War TL
- Thread starter TastySpam
- Start date
Churchill ended up PM again OTL too, but yeah, that's overall a really good point. It's more of a gradual denouement than a sharp break in 1945. Ironically, the part of the world to break hardest from WW2 is Asia. Pretty much no national leader in Asia as of 1961 had any major government role in World War II.
And in some cases, having the same political leader in 1961 in Asia as OTL would be viewed as unlikely...
Baldrick
Banned
Sorry to nitpick, but Paulus was commander of the Sixth Army.
The new version of this TL is even better than the first!
Chapter 130 - France Has No Friends, Only Interests
France Has No Friends, Only Interests
French troops in Lebanon expected it to be easy to re-establish peace and stability. France's mission was simple: to preserve the duly elected government of Lebanon from rebels, a motley crew that included Syrian Social Nationalists (who had swallowed up most of the Nasser-aligned nationalists after Nasser's death in Alexandria), Islamists, and Communists. The French under De Gaulle went to great lengths to claim that their mission was neither colonial or neocolonial, but this did not convince angry French leftists. In neighboring social democratic Italy, the La Pira government declined to allow the French to refuel in Sicily. Trying to not become overly dependent on the British (who they saw as rivals for dominance within the EEC, a perception that was largely not requited), the French instead opted to ploy the Greek Royalists with a convenient sale of advanced military weaponry (the Greek Royalists were originally funded by Great Britain in the late 1940's, but Great Britain abandoned them as part of the pivot towards Yugoslavia (Yugoslavia was the primary sponsor of North Greece). In many ways, the Greek Royalists fumed at the British betrayal, adopting France as their savior instead. As a result, the French were allowed to refuel from Crete.
The entire affair gave Royalist Greece one of the strangest arsenals of any nation. The Royal Hellenic Army still had old Italian weapons captured during the end of World War II, supplemented by British weapons from 1945-1947, supplemented by Soviet weapons 1948-onwards, supplemented now by modern French weapons. The Royal Hellenic Navy and Air Force were even more stranger. Royalist Greece was using equipment from probably every major Great Power. Ironically, American arms came to Royalist Greece through Ultranationalist Turkey, which although vitriolically anti-Greek, was still sponsoring Royalist Greece for its own reasons.
The mission was far tougher than expected, with French troops walking into a gauntlet, as Islamists, Communists, and Social Nationalists all united to target the French. In many ways, this was even worse than in Algeria, because at least in Algeria, the French only had to deal with the Communists and Nationalists. In addition, most of the fighting took place in the mountains, not in the heavily crowded cities of Lebanon. De Gaulle inherited the Algerian War, but he had no interested in inheriting another war. Reaching out, he realized that there were other powers that had just as much influence in Lebanon - namely, Syria and North China, whose relationship was rapidly breaking down.
De Gaulle saw a quick way to accomplish two goals at once. The Syrians, reeling from the loss of their North Chinese allies, were probably in a mood to make a deal (they were as unbeknownst to France, they had already made a covert deal with Israel). The French offered a fairly simple deal. The Syrians would be allowed to purchase some French military equipment on the condition that they 1) order the Syrian Social Nationalists to stand down against French troops and the current Lebanese government (in exchange for inclusion of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party in the Lebanese government), 2) withdraw all troops from the Lebanese border, and 3) extradite several individuals known for war crimes in France, chief among them Klaus Barbie, who had joined many other Nazis in Syria. De Gaulle figured that so many Nazis had congregated in Syria...that they weren't only going to miss one? Were they?
The Syrians took the deal. French intelligence "nabbed" Barbie and while Syria condemned "French colonialism", they moved their troops away from Lebanon, purchased several French arms, and instructed the SSNP to cooperate with the incumbent Lebanese government. This further worsened Sino-Syrian relations, as the North Chinese were strong supporters of the Communist Party of Lebanon, which was now violently at odds with the SSNP. The occupation of Lebanon became quick and simple for the French as the Communists, Islamists, and Nationalists turned their guns on each other, allowing the French-backed incumbent government to be a beacon of peace and security in Lebanon. Very soon, the incumbent government of Lebanon was back in control again, its power significantly strengthened with the inclusion of the SSNP. Although French troops remained (primarily to scare off North Chinese troops in Judeopalestine), the streets of Beirut were mostly peaceful again as the Communists fled into the mountains and Lebanese troops took the lead in fighting them. Barbie was immediately tried by a joint panel of West German and French judges, who declared him guilty and sentenced him to be executed by guillotine. The Syrians lied and pleaded ignorance.
De Gaulle took a victory lap around Europe, in his belief that he had flexed French muscle intelligently to accomplish all of her goals without firing many shots at all. The capture and execution of Barbie was also a personal victory for the former leader of the Free French. There was some discontent among other Western allies that he had likely collaborated with a very unsavory regime, one that engaged in mass ethnic cleansing and staffed itself with open, unrepetent Nazis. However, De Gaulle justified himself to other world leaders by pointing out that he was effectively dividing the "Communist powers" - namely by furthering the Sino-Syrian split. After all, in his words, "nations have no friends, only interests." As a result, De Gaulle was quick to dismiss reports of suspicious movements by the Syrian People's Army as merely a part of their retreat from the Lebanese border.
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Chapter 141 - The Christmas War
The Christmas War
Britain was not to be caught unprepared. Many British regularly painted President Mustafa Tlass as the "Arab Hitler", including Labour Party leader Hugh Gaitskell, lamenting that their French allies had clearly taken the path of appeasement.[1] If even Labour was calling him Hitler 2.0, the Conservative government of David Fyfe was even more uncompromising, quickly deploying its troops to the Syrian border. With an election year rapidly approaching (the last British elections were in 1957), the Fyfe Administration was already unpopular due to the cost and expense of several colonial campaigns. The polls predicted a hung parliament even though the British economy, increasingly integrated with the rest of Europe, was booming. The British military presence in Jordan was rather large due to Britain being the primary supporter of the Iraqi Royalists (as part of the Arab Federation of Iraq and Jordan, or AFIJ) in the Iraqi Civil War. In contrast, the Syrians were the primary supporters of the Iraqi Nationalists, especially after a suspicious assassination attempt on Nationalist leader Abd al-Wahab al-Shawaf killed the Nationalist leader.
The planners of the assassination was one of the most closely guarded Arab mysteries. Popular opinion generally blamed the MI6 of Great Britain since one could intuitively conclude that killing the relatively moderate al-Shawaf would eventually chase more moderates into the Royalist camp. In reality, the operation was undertaken by the United States Central Intelligence Agency, personally greenlit by President Kennedy, who judged that killing the moderate al-Shawaf would allow the Syrians to take control of the Nationalists, putting them on a collision course with North China. Indeed, this succeeded wildly, as the Syrians placed their own man in Iraq, Fuad al-Rikabi, in charge of the Syrian-supported Nationalists, as well as a local Iraqi millitant who worked with the CIA to enact the assassination, the 25-year old Saddam Hussein. The Nationalists and Communists immediately went to war in Iraq, further straining relations between Syria and North China. The radicalism of the Nationalists also chased away the Iranians, who had previously supported the Nationalists, but now simultaneously supported both the North Chinese-backed Communists and the American-backed Islamists. Indeed, this caused all three factions to unite against the Syrian-backed Nationalists.
In addition, Kennedy's ploy put the Soviets in an increasingly awkward position. The Soviet Union had received a naval base in the coastal Syrian city of Tartus to match the Soviet naval base in Port Arthur. As a result, it was forced to juggle its two ostensible allies, who loathed each other. Interestingly, Beria's lesson from the Three Years War was that the massive Soviet army was not as useful as the Soviets originally believed. However, he was consistently angry at the weak state of the Soviet Navy, which generally was unable to stand up to the Western powers in the Three Years War. Although able to prevent any NATO navies from entering the Black Sea or too far into the Baltics, the USA quickly established total naval superiority in the Pacific theater and the Anglo-French similar superiority in the Mediterranean theater, with the unlucky Soviet submarine that poked into the Black Sea quickly tracked down and sunk. With much better information than most other politicians, Beria had judged that the Soviet economy was actually crumbling under Western blockade by 1957. The Soviet Union engaged in a massive naval buildup immediately after the end of the war, which took more urgency after the Soviets were defeated by both the Americans and the French in reaching space. Both naval bases were essentially strategically invaluable to the Soviets - and nothing pained Beria more than the possibility he might have to pick one of those bases.
In Damascus, the Syrian detente with their former colonial ruler, France, cynically took advantage of De Gaulle's natural fondness for former French colonies so that Syria could turn their attention towards the struggle in Iraq. In particular, the Syrians saw Britain as the main enemy. If Britain were to collapse, that would open not only Iraq, but also Jordan and possibly even Egypt (though even Tlass's second-in-command, Hafez al-Assad had to admit this was a pipe-dream). Moreover, it was hard to find a power more unpopular than Great Britain in the Mediterranean. Royalist Greece and Turkey both loathed the UK for its planned annexation of Cyprus. Italy was mildly annoyed by the annexation of Malta. The Kingdom of Yemen had its eyes on British-controlled South Yemen. An increasing crisis was brewing in Asia over Singapore. The Argentines still hadn't given up on their claims on the Falkland Islands. Ironically, Tlass was not interested in destroying Israel. In many ways, he used rampant antisemitism and hatred of Israel, including his history of war crimes against Israeli citizens to legitimate his rule. If he were to actually destroy Israel, this would actually be far less effective.
On the morning of Christmas, when many British troops and officers were attending Christmas services, almost the entirety of the Syrian People's Army bulldozed across the Syrian-Jordanian border. The Palestinian fedayeen rose up in Jordan against Anglo-Jordanian forces and the Gaza Strip (against Anglo-Egyptian forces). They were so numerous, that Jordanian and Egyptian forces were taken by total surprise, especially because many of those fedayeen fighters had fought with Egypt and Jordan in the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. Interesting, because the West Bank was so open in terms of terrain, most of the Palestinian fedayeen from the West Bank were operating in Jordan itself, not the West Bank. The Jordanians had expected an attack on the West Bank as a plot to "flank" Israel, but not an attack on Jordan itself. Crossing near Nasib, Syria, the Syrian People's Army quickly bulldozed the Jordanians, who had many troops uselessly stationed in the West Bank. The Jordanian supply system collapsed as the fedayeen, active throughout almost all of Jordan (half of Jordanians were Palestinians, who almost entirely sided with Syria) made it very difficult to supply Jordanian troops by land, forcing the British to airlift supplies.
The British had strong contingency plans and immediately moved British troops to fortify Zarqa, north of Amman on the Damascus-Amman road and home to the largest Jordanian army and air base in the country (making it simple to supply from the air). The British understanding was that Anglo-Jordanian forces could easily blunt the Syrian advance at Zarqa, at which point the Mediterranean Fleet and the Asian Fleet would bring reinforcements directly into the Red Sea to push the Syrians completely out of Jordan and possibly even to Damascus. However, the Syrians had another trick to play. A day after the Syrian invasion, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Mutawakkilite Kingdom of Yemen, announced solidarity with Syria. Unbeknownst to the British, the three powers had signed a pact to partition conquered territories. Syria would get almost all of Jordan, Saudi Arabia would get the coastal regions of South Jordan that used to be part of the Hedjaz Kingdom (which Saudi Arabia used to claim), and North Yemen would obviously get South Yemen. Saudi participation shocked the British since none of Britain's Saudi contacts was told of this - largely because the Saudi Royal Family was largely opposed, with only the relatively left-wing, nationalistic King Saud himself being a supporter. In contrast, the British had expected North Yemen to attack if Syria attacked, so their troops fared far better.
Saudi Arabian troops immediately assaulted the city of Aqaba on the south coast of Jordan. Although Jordanian troops resisted fiercely, Aqaba was across the desert and more or less impossible to supply from the rest of Jordan because of the Palestinian uprising. Control of the city remained contested, but the Saudi Arabians prioritized completely the ports with artillery fire, effectively rendering Jordan landlocked. The British were forced to aerially resupply Jordanian troops in Aqaba from Egypt, which hurt as the British plan was to aerially resupply North Jordan from Egypt. The Saudi Arabians had purchased several Soviet-made SAMs, such as the S-75 Dvina, that rendered the planned aerial resupply of North Jordan impossible once the Saudi Arabian Army established some sort of position in Aqaba. British troops were far better trained and equipped than the coalition facing them, but the extremely disadvantageous situation of the war meant that something had to change for Great Britain - and change fast.
Several possibilities opened up for Great Britain. First, they could sail the Mediterranean fleet to the coast of Syria itself and launch a diversionary attack. Alternatively, they could reinforce in Kuwait and try to blow their way across Iraq. Third, they could try to launch an amphibious assault across the Red Sea to reinforce Jordanian troops in Aqaba. Their choices narrowed significantly after the Israelis, currently in control of the Suez Canal (or at least one side, enough to deny passage to anyone), declared "armed neutrality" whereupon no navy ships would be allowed to pass through the Suez Canal. This was seen as incredibly suspicious, because of Britain's overwhelming naval superiority, this was seen almost entirely anti-British. And indeed, Israel had also been promised something.
At the United Nations, a condemnation of Syria, Saudi Arabia, and North Yemen failed in both the Security Council and the General Assembly. Not only did the entire Communist bloc vote no, but so did Brazil, Italy, Argentina, Turkey, Malaya, and (North) Greece (their UN seat was occupied by the Royalist government). Most disturbingly, several expected allies voted present, including Canada, Spain, Israel, France (De Gaulle feared an oil embargo), Ethiopia, India, the Philippines (South) China, and most devastatingly of all, the United States, which was a shock present vote. The message was clear: Britain would have to win this by herself.
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[1] OTL Gaitskell compared Nasser to Hitler - and Syria is far more extreme than OTL Syria.
The way things are going in Britain, I wouldn't be surprised if Mountbatten declares an emergency government and sets up martial law around election time.
BigBlueBox
Banned
How vulnerable is the Soviet Union to blockade? It is energy-independent. If Beria's reforms were worth anything, it should either be agriculturally self-sufficient (or even a net exporter) or getting there. It has great mineral reserves. Most of its manufactured products are produced domestically or in its fraternal communist allies. We haven't reached the digital age yet, so I imagine the the only things the Soviets would seek to import are specialized machinery from the West, raw materials from the Third World it doesn't have at home, and luxury products. The first obviously won't be for sale if another war with the West happens anyways. The third is unnecessary. Only the second seems to matter. The cutting off of African and Latin American goods is a reality the Soviets will just have to accept. Quadrupling the size of their navy won't stop that. As for goods from Eurasia, the Soviets might have an interesting solution for that. They could try a Soviet Belt & Road Project connecting Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Eastern Europe, Mongolia, and North China. Maybe even the Indians would get involved. Displacing millions of people to build ambitious projects like a Black Sea-Caspian Canal or a Caspian-Persian Gulf Canal also seems to fit Beria's personality.
Honestly? The URSS realistically will have in a dire economic and social situation, OTL it needed much of the 50's to at least rebuild the destruction of WW2 and rebuild from the population loss...but here? Has been a war after another and has not been cheap in both term of blood and treasure
TBQF, the entire Three Years War cost the USSR as much as basically a week of the Great Patriotic War.
Beria's reforms help the USSR, but economic decentralization doesn't cure everything. OTL Yugoslavia, even at its pre-Oil Crisis heights, was an importer of agricultural products. The central government in the USSR isn't all powerful just because it's a giant creaking machine that moves incredibly slowly - honestly, a "dramatic" boost might be like a 15% increase to naval funding and a 10% boost to economic productivity from reforms. And of course, it was in a tougher spot before Beria - "grain shipments to the Soviets" were a thing OTL.
In a lot of way, Beria's economic strategy plays to the strength of many Communist states, in particular the USSR - the incredibly high level of education, a focus that strengthens after losing the first round of the Space Race. So they're much more focused on naval research than cranking out battleships or anything (I don't see a fundamental change to Soviet naval doctrine).