The North Star is Red: a Wallace Presidency, KMT Victory, Alternate Cold War TL

If there's any country Cyprus wants to be annexed to, it's either Greece for the Greeks or Turkey for the Turks.
^ This actually, as far as the people on the ground is concerned.

But, I guess the British is looking to go from quagmire to quagmire so...unless they can show why British rule is better (which is unlikely). We're going to see hell in the Eastern Med.
 
Chapter 91 - Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition
Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition
The opposition parties exploded in chaos. Labour had been chastened by one of their worst performances in decades. A motion of no confidence in the party was immediately tabled against Hugh Gaitskell for the disastrous performance. However, against all odds, he managed to triumph against his internal competitor, George Brown, for many reasons.

First, Gaitskell was still beloved by the Labour rank and file for leading the nation during the Three Year's War. Although his approval ratings were low, Labour partisans generally strongly approved of the National Government, especially because even though they were at war, Gaitskell rammed through all kinds of Labour reforms that were broadly popular, such as expanding the NHS, public housing, childcare, state pensions, and a myriad of other welfare programs. In many cases, these were programs that Labour couldn't normally get the Conservatives to pass, but Gaitskell cleverly used the war to deflect against critiques of "crypto-Communism." In fact, Gaitskell openly used the Swedish war effort to consciously imitate many aspects of the Swedish welfare state as a socialist alternative to Soviet Communism. State spending and tax rates in the United Kingdom swelled to the second highest in Europe and after the annihilation of Stockholm, became the highest in Europe. The Swedish model may not have survived in Sweden, but it left behind a massive child in Britain. Gaitskell still disappointed the far-left of the party that wanted mass nationalizations of industry under Article IV, which the Gaitskell ministry did not implement. However, most of them had bolted to Independent Labour, so they were unable to vote against Gaitskell. Independent Labour would eventually fade away after the 1960 death of Aneurin Bevan, with their supporters scattering to the Liberals, Labour, and even more irrelevant third parties.

Second, Gaitskell was on the right side of the EEC issue. One of the biggest political issues after the 1957 war was the quickly negotiated Treaty of Brussels, establishing the European Economic Community (EEC). Gaitskell was a ferocious opponent of entering the EEC, while Brown was an advocate of entering it. Unfortunately for Brown, Prime Minister Fyfe and the Tories were also avid supporters of entering the EEC. The Labour base was already poorly disposed to the EEC, and the fact that Brown sided with Fyfe on this critical issue angered the base. Originally, it was unexpected that the UK would enter the EEC. However, due to British cooperation with the French in many of their colonial wars as well as the Three Years War, Prime Minister Charles de Gaulle personally invited Prime Minister Fyfe to the treaty negotiations. In late 1957, the Treaty of Brussels was signed between France, Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands, West Germany, Luxembourg, Sweden, Denmark, and Norway.

Third, Gaitskell was openly favored by the United States. President Kennedy distrusted the EEC, seeing it as a way for "Fortress Europe" to try to preserve their colonial empires. Kennedy thought the Liberals were just crypto-Communists and he was outraged by the Conservatives. Their suppression of Cypriot independence was wildly unpopular in Cyprus, Greece, and Turkey, while the escalation of the Egyptian conflict came at a great cost. As such, Gaitskell's anti-Communist, anti-colonial democratic socialism was seen as the ideal partner of JFK's progressive United States. Anti-Gaitskell Labour activists on both the far-left and far-right quickly found themselves on the wrong side of CIA operations. CIA operations obviously could not swing entire elections, but they could influence small internal party elections, where the electorates were very small.

In contrast, despite the Liberals having their best performance in decades, Megan Lloyd George's caucus became significantly more radical, with most of the right-liberals leaving and being replaced with former Labour radicals. Suddenly, she had gone from being on the left-end of the Liberal spectrum to on the right-end. Rather irrationally, Liberal voters thought they were going to win the 1957 elections and having not done so and only taken 41 seats, a vote of no confidence was taken in Megan Lloyd George. It narrowly passed. The leadership elections were then immediately won by Sir Richard Acland, a former Liberal MP who founded his own "Common Wealth Party", joined Labour in 1947, and then rejoined the Liberals in 1955. The Liberals really found their political footing in castigating the new British nuclear program, which tested its first thermonuclear bomb just months after the thermonuclear attack on Stockholm, a fact that played very poorly with left-of-center British.
 
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I don't think Cyprus particularly wants to be annexed.

If there's any country Cyprus wants to be annexed to, it's either Greece for the Greeks or Turkey for the Turks.

What's pretty galling is that the Gaitskell Ministry, knowing Cyprus was unholdable in the long-term, alienated Turkey by promising it to the Greeks for joining in the Three Years War, which they did.

Then the Fyfe Ministry goes "lol naw."
 
Chapter 92 - The Fallout: India and Pakistan (Part 5)
I'm probably going to do a Latin American roundup, a Western Europe roundup, and then probably a Greek/Turkey roundup. Then we're doing a chaotic as hell pileup war. Cookies to whoever guesses where it is.

The Fallout: India and Pakistan (Part 5)

Nowhere epitomized the Cold War stronger than the struggle between India and Pakistan. Although neither were truly that well-orientated towards their respective bloc (India was a self-described secular socialist democracy aligned with the West and Pakistan a self-described Islamic socialist democracy aligned with the USSR, at least starting in 1952), the antagonism between the two was strong and deep. Many Pakistanis military officers bought into racist tropes of West Pakistanis as being a "martial race" and Hindus (as well as Bengalis) being a "subject race", arguing that the Indians had only won the Kashmir War due to overwhelming numerical superiority and mass human wave attacks. The point about overwhelming numerical superiority was true, but India could only successfully utilize their superior numbers because of excellent Indian morale. There were no shortage of courageous Indian soldiers. President Akbar Khan proclaimed a model of socialism whereupon the "racial superiority" of Pakistanis was only held back by a "backwards, feudal society", and thus a hard dose of socialism was deemed necessary to modernize Pakistan.

Ironically, despite Islam being very much interwoven into the national identity of Pakistan, the Pakistani government was incredibly hostile to actual Pakistani Muslim clerics. In many ways, this paradox mirrored the example of Turkey. In Turkey, Ataturk and his supporters often defined Turkishness by Islam (for example, in the 1920's, Turkish-speaking Christians were deported to Greece, and Greek-speaking Muslims were deported to Turkey). However, both groups strictly championed their states as entirely secular, often denigrating their own national traditions. One of the most unusual outcomes of the South Asian Cold War was the PRP abolishing the Urdu script, adopting Latin scripted Hindustani (Roman Urdu) as their national script. Ironically in response, the Government of India immediately enacted a law declaring Traditional Urdu one of the two official languages of Kashmir (the other being Kashmiri). Ironically, the Urdu script would survive only in India.

In addition, Bengali was romanized, angering most non-Communist Bengalis, largely because Romanized Bengali didn't work very well at all. Similiarly, the PRP standardized a register of Bengali very different from "Standard Bengali." Standard Bengali was based on the Rarhi dialect in West Bengal. Instead, Pakistani Bengal was based on the Bangali dialect in East Bengal. Bengalis had long protested for Bengali to become an official language of Pakistan. They got their wish, albeit not in the way most of them wanted. Ironically, traditional literary Bengali would also only survive in India. However, the heavy Bengali representation in the Communist Party of Pakistan kept a lid on their home turf. One group was even madder: the Baluchis, long angered by the Pakistani state's refusal for autonomy, began a revolt. In particular, Akbar Khan was hated by the Baluchis for his brutal suppression of their first insurgency. The fact that "Proletarian" Urdu and Bengali were co-national languages of Pakistan, with all state documents in both, outraged Baluchis, who did not see similar representation.

Another group was also not a fan at all of Islamic Socialism. The PRP insisted that their modernizing reforms would shine a light on South Asia, sparking a revolution in Kashmir that would sweep out the Indian feudalists. The result was the opposite. Islamists were outraged at the Pakistani government, with the government justifying a tighter and tighter police state in opposition to Islamist terrorism. Kashmiris generally were horrified at Pakistan. They didn't like the Indian "colonialists", but Pakistani progressivism terrified the common Kashmiri Muslim. The once popular Kashmiri socialist, Sheikh Abdullah, ironically found himself under attack from Islamic clerics, ironically ralied behind the Hindu Maharaja, Hari Singh (very ironically) because of their deep fear of Pakistani socialism. Abdullah turned against ascension to India in light of Pakistani progressivism, which in turned Kashmiri's Islamic clerics towards either union with India or independence.

Nehru was prepared to violently crush dissidents in India if he thought they were agitating for union with Pakistan. But the concept of an independent Kashmir aligned with India didn't repulse him. In fact, his proposed Article 370 would have turned Kashmir into more or less a totally autonomous region of India. With India condemned by the UN for not holding a referendum in Kashmir on either integration with Pakistan, India, or independence, Nehru prepared to take the issue off the table completely. After "negotiations" with Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad, Nehru announced in early 1954 that India had accepted the upcoming independence of the Kingdom of Kashmir and Jammu, a seemingly "ecumenical Islamic constitutional monarchy". Of course, the Kingdom wasn't to actually be that independent. In fact, a secret agreement signed between the parties in question gave control of all Kashmiri defense and foreign affairs to India. In practice, Kashmiri Pandits dominated the affair of the state, ironically accommodating Islamic clerics who agreed that any implementation of Sharia law would only apply to Muslims.

Pakistan fumed in anger, but Pakistan wasn't the only outraged party. Syama Prasad Mukherjee, a member of Nehru's cabinet, immediately resigned, condemning Nehru for compromising Indian national integrity, working instead with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh to find the Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS). Nehru had actually not expected any such anger, feeling that his own status a Kashmiri Pandit would give his declaration gravitas. On the eve of Kashmiri independence, which took place shortly after the beginning of the Three Years War, Nehru gave a famous speech about Kashmiri independence, at which point a Hindu nationalist activist managed to break through the guards, wielding only a patta, a traditional weapon most famously used by the Maratha Confederacy (Shivaji himself included) against the forces of the Mughal Empire. The activist, despite being shot, managed to charge straight into Nehru, stabbing him in the heart with the sword. A foreign photographer managed to take one of the most iconic pictures in Indian history.

Unfortunately for India, the Indian cabinet was thrown into chaos immediately right when the world went into chaos. Nehru had no deputy Prime Miniser - his Deputy Sardar Patel had died in 1950. In the ensuing power struggle, the Defense Minister V.K. Menon had managed to come out on top. Under his harsh policies, the RSS was blamed for the assassination of Nehru. The assassin in question was an RSS member, but there was no evidence that the RSS or other Hindu nationalist groups had plotted the assassination. The RSS was banned and the famous Hindu nationalist leader, Savarkar, was infamously hung despite the evidence being highly favorable towards his non-involvement. Ironically, Savarkar probably knew about the plot against Gandhi and was released on a technicality. This time, he was innocent, but executed on a technicality. This outraged Hindu nationalists, who vowed revenge against the Congress.

Menon also sought to illegalize both the Communist Party and BJS, but the Supreme Court of India intervened against him. He also sought to circumvent the Supreme Court, but foreign affairs ended the Menon ministry. With the Three Years War raging, Menon planned on an Indian invasion of Goa. He had consulted the Soviet Union, who had promised to stop any Pakistani incursion on Kashmir in exchange. The Pakistanis had actually plotted a large offensive into Kashmir, but their Soviet backers vetoed the move, something the Pakistanis accepted after they saw the catastrophe inflicted on North China. In 1956, Menon was about to greenlight an Indian invasion of Goa, before a joint communique from the United States, UK, France, Spain, and Portugal declared that an attack on Goa would be considered a direct attack on all of them. The Western powers knew something was up when border skirmishes between the Burmese Communists and the Indian Army ceased for several months. With American troops dying in the thousands against North China, most Indians realized that the Western powers were not playing around. Menon aimed to go for it anyways. Although the Indian Army served bravely in the Indo-Pakistani War, the skirmishes against (Pakistani-backed) Burmese Communists generally went fairly poorly for the Indians. They did not feel confident of a war with the West. It was very much considered a quagmire for the Indians and Nehru was trying to broker a peace until his death, at which point Menon brokered the peace, greatly angering the Chiang Kai-shek, which saw those Burmese troops immediately attack the KMT.

A last-minute cabinet coup was launched against Menon, with the Indian cabinet declaring they had no confidence in his cabinet. A last minute vote was taken in the INC, which Menon narrowly lost. It was widely considered an extremely corrupt vote, with several INC members being famously assassinated by shadowy foreign forces (generally thought to be the CIA), with many others famously bribed. Menon fell, but it was too late. Indian troops had already marched into Goa and occupied it entirely. India had engaged in an act of war against much of NATO. Desperate to avoid war with NATO, the remnants of the INC (Menon and his supporters stormed out of the party, founding their own party, which infamously included Nehru's daughter, Indira) elected someone they knew had proven pro-Western credentials. The President-elect of the United States, Joseph McCarthy, had already publicly advocated nuking New Delhi. The new Prime Minister, C. Rajagopalachari, had long preached about the dangers of Communism and was well-beloved by the West. The C.R. Ministry quickly repaired relations with the West. In 24-7 negotiations with the Portuguese government, it was deemed that a compromise had to be found in Goa. The Dominion of Goa was released as an independent state, with the Portuguese appointing a Governor-General and the Indians in control of defense policy. Goa would notably also be a free-trade zone for both Indians and Portuguese, and Indians would have the right to freely live and work in Goa, although not the right to become citizens. The parties also promised to revisit Goan sovereignty in 50 years, or in 2006/2007. The compromise was more or less forced onto both the Indians and Portuguese at gunpoint by the other allies - neither were happy with this.

Unsurprisingly, Indian-Soviet relations soured again, as Pakistani-backed Burmese Communists continued their attacks on Indian forces. Although the Indian population gave C.R. applauds for evading Indian entrance into the horrifically bloody Three Years War, he had angered Hindu nationalists, Communists, and secular nationalists. The 1957 elections would be the greatest ever electoral challenge for the Indian National Congress.
 
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BigBlueBox

Banned
On the eve of Kashmiri independence, which took place shortly after the beginning of the Three Years War, Nehru gave a famous speech about Kashmiri independence, at which point a Hindu nationalist activist managed to break through the guards, wielding only a patta, a traditional weapon most famously used by the Maratha Confederacy (Shivaji himself included) against the forces of the Mughal Empire. The activist, despite being shot, managed to charge straight into Nehru, stabbing him in the heart with the sword. A foreign photographer managed to take one of the most iconic pictures in Indian history.
Something about this sounds familiar.
Capture.PNG
 
What's pretty galling is that the Gaitskell Ministry, knowing Cyprus was unholdable in the long-term, alienated Turkey by promising it to the Greeks for joining in the Three Years War, which they did.

Then the Fyfe Ministry goes "lol naw."
Yeah, they did that to Italy after wwi and that didn't turn out so well.

Looks like Britain is putting its own projects ahead of NATO. That's got to annoy the Americans.
 

AeroTheZealousOne

Monthly Donor
Then we're doing a chaotic as hell pileup war. Cookies to whoever guesses where it is.

I'm terrible at guessing but I'm going to guess it's going to be somewhere in South America. They've gotten off the hook a little too much in this rapidly crumbling world.

The activist, despite being shot, managed to charge straight into Nehru, stabbing him in the heart with the sword. A foreign photographer managed to take one of the most iconic pictures in Indian history.
Something about this sounds familiar.

I was thinking the exact same thing! "Wait, wasn't a Japanese politician assassinated in a similar manner IOTL?"
 
Chapter 93 - The Fallout: South America (Part 6)
I uh, retconed some of Argentina. Peron just won, flat out. Also, the rest of Latin America is next.

The Fallout: South America (Part 6)

Juan Peron was having the time of his life. His enemies in the Navy had been crushed. The opposition had been totally neutered. His laws against both opposition politicians and the free press had been preserved, giving him an unprecedentedly tight control over Argentina. Having just survived an American-backed coup supported by the CIA, Peron found a surprisingly patron: the American CIA. Whereas the Russel Administration plotted against and overthrew leaders for being anti-American or anti-Western, the new Kennedy doctrine was different: supporting anyone who promised to shoot Communists. Peron was many things, but he was not a Communist, even if he tried to co-opt the Communist Party. Whereas previous American administration viewed that as a sign of Communism, the new American administration viewed that as a way to fight Communism. Moreover, those in America most keen on a hard line with Peron were from the farm states, which overwhelmingly voted MacArthur, not McCarthy. The end of the war proved a huge boon for the Argentinian economy, as President Kennedy announced a Second Recovery Plan, based on the Marshall Plan, primarily for the war-devastated nations of Europe and Asia.

The primary recipients of the plan were Turkey, Greece, Sweden, Hungary, Yugoslavia, ROK-Jeju, South Japan, and Republican China. However, with an eye for expanding American influence, India, Argentina, Spain, Colombia, Brazil, and Portugal were also included for being "helpful" in the war. Peron had openly volunteered using Argentina ships to send material foodstuffs to Europe and Asia in support of the Yugoslavs, which endeared him to the Americans. The inclusion of Argentina into what was called the "Second Marshal Plan" was a huge boon for Peron, unlocking capital markets that Argentina had been earlier blocked off from. In addition, much of the American aid program to Europe became essentially purchasing Argentinian agricultural products and shipping them to Europe (American products were mostly shipped to Asia, particularly China). American agricultural aid to Republican China dramatically expanded in response to the Great Chinese Famine, further driving up global food prices and bolstering the Argentinian economy. Peron's Argentina grew increasingly oppressive, with opposition forces brutally hunted down and snuffed out, with the Argentinian Army rapidly transformed into a fundamentally political force, complete with political commissars to ensure compliance. This was justified to the public by Peron arguing it was the only way to prevent future coups.

Despite increasing repression, the country grew increasingly prosperous, reversing the decline of the early 20th century. What is often called "the Argentinian Miracle" by Peron partisans wasn't actually that complicated. Peronist labor regulations and policies were deeply harmful, but not harmful enough to prevent Argentina's agricultural sector from booming in profits, which could then easily be funneled into massive infrastructure projects. In addition, many of those labour regulations were actually loosened once Peronist secret police had established total control of Argentina's labour unions. Once the labour unions were co-opted by the Peronist state, Peron also opened up the nation to immigration, promising Europeans that Argentina would a safe, secure, and prosperous haven for them, far away from the dangers of the Cold War.

In Brazil, the Joao Goulart administration muddled around on a tight-rope. Goulart was fully aware that the Soviet Union and United States were viciously fighting for power and he was on America's ****list. He was probably the most left-wing major figure in Brazil after the Communists eviscerated themselves in their drive to "crush Titoists." As a result, Brazil under his rule intervened in the Three Years War, sending the Brazilian Expeditionary Force to Yugoslavia. Immediately at the end of the war, Goulart painted himself as a "social democrat" comparing himself to Dilas, Nehru, and Chiang. Goulart and Dilas in fact became very close friends as a result. The military, pressured by the Americans to not start a coup quite yet, kept their swords sheathed. However, conservative Brazilians were outraged at the left-wing Goulart, who was still seen as too close to the Soviet Union, viewing the military as feckless and irrelevant. As a result, Congressman Plinio Correa de Oliveira, horrified by what he saw in one country in particular, founded the organization Tradition, Family, and Property (TFP), a hardline traditionalist Catholic organization in opposition to Goulart. TFP gained popularity for not only speaking out against Goulart, but also against Peron, who they viewed as a secularist stalking horse.

Both Brazil and Argentina were included in President Kennedy's "Alliance for Progress." Another nation was Venezuela, under General Marcos Perez Jimenez. Perez Jimenez was loathed as a supposed puppet of the Americans, especially by Venezuelans who saw the Americans intervene in Saudi Arabia in what was seen as a blatant oil grab. When Perez Jimenez was forced to renegotiate his oil-sharing agreement with the United States, his popularity greatly suffered. One of President Kennedy's first moves was to restore the oil-sharing agreement, but P.J. was still unpopular. Under American tutelage, Venezuela grew quickly, but nationalist and leftist rage grew. In 1957, shortly before the end of the Three Years War, the famous American composer Aaron Copland went to Venezuela to perform his Lincoln Portrait. The crowd interpreted the play as an invective against the dictator Perez Jimenez, cheering wildly at Lincoln's statement that "that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth", while jeering at the dictator. The American foreign service was outraged and the McCarthy Administration, upon Copland's arrival in the United States, immediately arrested and tried him for treason. The case was almost certainly prejudiced by the thermonuclear bombing of Stockholm - a frenzied jury found him guilty, ignoring much of the legal evidence, and the prosecutors successfully sought the death penalty. This sparked further rage in Venezuela, with a huge sector of the Armed Forces deserting Perez Jimenez. In addition, almost all of Venezuela's elected parties organized in the Puntofijo Pact, between Accion Democratica (AD, most famous for its association with Romulo Betancourt), COPEI (the Social Christian Party), Union Republica Democratica (URD), and most controversially, the Communist Party of Venezuela, which was too popular to exclude because of their role in speaking out against American "oil imperialism."

President Kennedy more or less inherited this mess right as the Three Years War ended. With the military in open revolt against Perez Jimenez, P.J. would have resigned immediately if not for the inclusion of the Communist Party in the Punto-Fijo Pact - he genuinely believed that his fight would allow Venezuela to become a Communist state. Perez Jimenez loyalists hunkered down in Caracas, refusing to abandon Miraflores Palace. Caracas quickly descended into chaos as Venezuelan loyalists cried out for American intervention. President Kennedy immediately complied. In late 1957, American forces sailed to the shores of Caracas, where the Marines would land immediately in order, link up with regime forces, and crush the "Communist insurrection."

Much like Venezuela, Colombia saw a coup at roughly the same time-frame. General Gustavo Rojas Pinilla, who had earlier overthrown both the Conservatives and Liberals in a bid to end La Violencia and restore peace to Colombia, had been in turn denounced by the established partise. However, Rojas Pinilla was also a loyal ally of Washington D.C., helping lead Colombia into aiding the Western powers in the Three Years War. President Kennedy was skeptical of military coups against elected leaders for some strange reason, but the foreign service informed him that allowing pro-American leaders to fall like that would set a bad precedent in the war against Communism. He agreed. American paratroopers, already in the region, flew over Bogota, dropped in on the Presidential Palace, and ordered the rebelling generals to stand down. After seeing the invasion of Venezuela, they generally believed President Kennedy didn't mess around and did so, after being guaranteed that they and their subordinates would not be harmed. JFK personally approved this and most of them were given visas to live in Miami.

American relations with the rest of the continent were strong. Both the Americans and Peron begged the Peron-inspired Peruvian dictator Manuel A. Odria, who planned on democratizing and resigning, to at least run for office again. He did so, and was re-elected as an ostensibly democratic President, still pro-U.S. In Bolivia, American and Argentinian forces, as well as Spanish and Portuguese, began generously funding Oscar Unzaga's Bolivian Socialist Falange, hoping to remove the left-wing MNR from power. Unbeknownst to either, the prominent politician Juan Lechin Oquendo was frustrating the MNR's attempt to disarm the worker and miner militias that brought them to power in 1952. A confrontation in Bolivia was brewing. Meanwhile, Chile began moving towards the contentious 1958 elections. Ibanez was unsure whether to run again or not.
 
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Third, Gaitskell was openly favored by the United States. President Kennedy distrusted the EEC, seeing it as a way for "Fortress Europe" to try to preserve their colonial empires. Kennedy thought the Liberals were just crypto-Communists and he was outraged by the Conservatives. Their suppression of Cypriot independence was wildly unpopular in Cyprus, Greece, and Turkey, while the escalation of the Egyptian conflict came at a great cost. As such, Gaitskell's anti-Communist, anti-colonial democratic socialism was seen as the ideal partner of JFK's progressive United States. Anti-Gaitskell Labour activists on both the far-left and far-right quickly found themselves on the wrong side of CIA operations. CIA operations obviously could not swing entire elections, but they could influence small internal party elections, where the electorates were very small.

Ooh this is going to be bad when it gets uncovered.
 

Nephi

Banned
If there's any country Cyprus wants to be annexed to, it's either Greece for the Greeks or Turkey for the Turks.

I think it should have been, once there was a clearly established population boundary, Turkey and Greece already share a border, just divide the island.
 
ROK-Jeju isn't viable, and no economic initiatives should be able to keep it up.
Well, they're importing most everything and exporting next to nothing, but American aid should be enough to keep it afloat in terms of food and basic infrastructure. It's not exactly in a position to become an Asian Tiger at the moment either. around twice the size of Singapore or Hong Kong, though it's much more mountainous. It could probably support about a million people and maybe a bit more if the economy were strong enough. I don't know how many people fled there but my guess is that given the rapid end of the war and the distance from the mainland, I doubt it was a lot. Maybe some exiles simply moved to Japan or the United States rather than stay on Jeju. Even here, the island's population is probably no more than a couple hundred thousand and with a local majority. If this is the case, the future of Jeju then could be one in which the people gradually think of itself less as Korea in exile and more as just Jeju. The best chance to form a viable nation would be to turn the island into a sort of Singapore style city state but I just don't see that happening any time soon. The circumstances are just too different.
 
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I think it should have been, once there was a clearly established population boundary, Turkey and Greece already share a border, just divide the island.

There was no 'clearly established population boundary' on Cyprus; this was the ethnographic distribution IOTL in 1960. The Turks were 18% of the population, and pretty much mixed within the Greek majority. As a matter of fact, only after independence in 1960 did the Turks deliberately start moving from more mixed areas to form ethnically homogeneous areas, a process that accelerated after the clashes of 1964.
 
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