The North Star is Red: a Wallace Presidency, KMT Victory, Alternate Cold War TL

Check out my post on KMT post war economy, politics, society, and foreign relations. It will open a lot of eyes

1. I looked at the post and I largely agree. But large state expenditures on industrialization aren't exactly viable in the immediate post-war years (like 1948/1949). I assume it'd be more of a 1950's thing. China is in rubbles right now, so I think I was describing the KMT immediately stabilizing the country after the war, rebuilding basic infrastructure, establishing basic law and order, etc. etc. This is the 1950 KMT.
2. At the very least, I think the post indicates that the KMT has fairly cordial relations with the UK. Which should be a hint to relations with the US.
3. Yes, though the KMT doesn't have total victory (more like 85% victory), so that complicates things a bit (they're still trying to differentiate themselves, though with less urgency)
4. Maybe it's a little unclear, but the post describes how the KMT has dropped martial law in most of the provinces (besides the Communist Northeast and now Tibet). There has been a return to constitutional government and Chiang Kai-Shek is ruling as an elected President. It just happens that de facto political power is highly concentrated in his office. But he's clearly not a one-man dictator. After all, he just got dragged into a war he didn't want! I'd say Chiang Kai-Shek's ROC is clearly more democratic than Rhee's South Korea, but less democratic than Japan.
 
1. I looked at the post and I largely agree. But large state expenditures on industrialization aren't exactly viable in the immediate post-war years (like 1948/1949). I assume it'd be more of a 1950's thing. China is in rubbles right now, so I think I was describing the KMT immediately stabilizing the country after the war, rebuilding basic infrastructure, establishing basic law and order, etc. etc. This is the 1950 KMT.

2. At the very least, I think the post indicates that the KMT has fairly cordial relations with the UK. Which should be a hint to other foreign relations.

3. Yes, though the KMT doesn't have total victory (more like 85% victory), so that complicates things a bit (they're still trying to differentiate themselves, though with less urgency)

4. Maybe it's a little unclear, but the post describes how the KMT has dropped martial law in most of the provinces (besides the Communist Northeast and now Tibet). There has been a return to constitutional government and Chiang Kai-Shek is ruling as an elected President. It just happens that de facto political power is highly concentrated in his office. But he's clearly not a one-man dictator. After all, he just got dragged into a war he didn't want! I'd say Chiang Kai-Shek's ROC is clearly more democratic than Rhee's South Korea, but less democratic than Japan.

1)The rebuilding won't happen immediately. The KMT will have to spend some time pacifying China and bringing stability and sanity. China may start exporting in the late 60s or sometime in the 70s when trade agreements and container logistics make it more possible. However, I believe China will be much more developed when the time for exportation comes. The coast may be developed to a point where it may not be as realistic to put manufacturing there. KMT China could start exporting by starting factories more in the interior. KMT China will grow better in the 50s 60s and 70s than Mao China. Better growth means earlier urbanization in the 50s, 60s, and 70s.

2) I mean, Britain recognized the PRC in 1950 against the wishes of the US. The UK has a business group called the 48 group club or the Icebreakers. The group was created after the CCP victory in 1949 and were the first to build bridges with a Communist China. https://the48groupclub.com/icebreakers/

3) People can still leave the ROC post war and go to HK, Taiwan, Singapore or the west. That amount could be larger if the KMT really screw up.


4) Chiang will definitely be more democratic than the likes of Rhee and Park Chung Hee but less than Japan. Japan had some degree of democratic tradition before World War 2. Chiang honestly sounds sort of Putin like except without the oligarchs. He will have to really concentrate power in his hands to conduct an initial cleanup of Chinese corruption, banditry, and corruption within his ranks.
 
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This might be a weird question, but my question is if South Korea still exists.

So, does it? Or did the Soviets manage to get down into the Korean Peninsula?
 
Chapter 7 - The 1948 US Presidential Primaries
The 1948 Presidential Primaries
Everyone saw it coming. President Henry Wallace had been prepping for it for a while - a ferocious intra-party challenge. Although there was no actual primary, the 1948 Democratic National Convention promised to be a complete mess. Party bosses loathed Wallace ever since he was made Vice President again in 1944, and many of them believed that he was leading their party into catastrophe. The 1946 elections were disastrous and even some labor unions distrusted Wallace, especially the American Federation of Labor. Moreover, another group of Southern Democrats, outraged by Wallace's support of civil rights, sought to deny him the nomination. Ultimately, both of these groups decided to rally behind the same man - James F. Byrnes of South Carolina, who had earlier challenged Wallace at the 1944 Convention. Byrnes, although a segregationist from South Carolina, was generally viewed as a moderate in the context of Southern politics. Favored by FDR at one point to be Wallace's replacement, he was the perfect candidate to challenge Wallace. However, it was no easy task to primary a sitting President, especially one that was trained in all of the convention tricks that were unsuccessfully used against him at the 1944 Democratic National Convention. At the end of the day, incumbency won the day, and Wallace supporters were able to set enough rules at the campaign in order to ensure that their candidate would win - Wallace was eventually nominated, albeit with only 53% of the delegates supporting him. Most dangerously to the Democratic ticket, Byrnes himself stormed out of the party convention, taking many of his delegates with him.

In desperation to prevent a total party split, Henry Wallace was berated by party leaders to pick a vice presidential nominee from the South. In the end, he settled on the highest profile Southern Democrat to not storm out of the convention, a man who he had gotten used to dealing with, Senator Richard Russell of Georgia. Russell had supported Byrnes, but was willing to be Wallace's VP on the condition that the remaining condition not so forcibly promote civil rights. At the end of the day, a compromise was struck where the platform would endorse all of President Wallace's executive actions on civil rights, but did not promise additional federal legislative action on civil rights. Both sides knew Wallace would push for such action upon re-election, but agreed tacitly to at least not publicly acknowledge this. This however, did not mollify all the Southern Democrats. Byrnes threw his support to his fellow South Carolinian, Strom Thurmond, who was nominated by the bolting delegates as the candidate of the State's Rights Democratic Party, alongside his Vice President, Benjamin Travis Laney.

In contrast, the Republican Party held primaries. The GOP heavily courted the support of General Dwight Eisenhower, whose political views were unknown, but he would ultimately not enter the race. However, he did hint that he was a Republican who would support the Republican ticket. The most forceful opponent of President Wallace was the conservative Robert Taft, who castigated "creeping socialism", causing him to gain momentum against Eastern establishment leader Thomas Dewey, who preferred to criticize President Wallace on his foreign policy. However, Dewey himself lost a great deal of momentum after Wallace's about-face with the Soviet Union in 1948, giving more momentum to Taft. A third candidate, Harold Stassen, caught some momentum with his youthful liberalism, but remained a distance third. Going into the Republican National Convention of 1948, the convention deadlocked repeatedly on candidates. Going into the 13th ballot, the convention finally settled on a compromise candidate between the three, the popular Governor of California, Earl Warren. Generally aware of his somewhat liberal reputation, Warren was able to plead and beg Eisenhower into accepting the Vice Presidential nomination. Eisenhower, a moderate Republican, generally lost faith in President Wallace's ability to handle foreign policy and was willing to resign to run against him. The popularity of the Warren-Eisenhower ticket seemed overwhelming - in the first Gallup poll after the party conventions, Warren was crushing Wallace, 54-33, a 21-point margin more lopsided than Roosevelt's landslide wins against Alf Landon and Herbert Hoover. Democrats had begun to think they had made a terrible mistake in renominating Wallace.
 
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Just to ask Barkley is de jure President or he is acting President?

Just reading up now on how this works. It appears that if no President is elected by the House of Representatives, the Vice President becomes de jure President on inauguration day. The office of Vice President thus becomes vacant. With Senate confirmation, the President can nominate someone to fill that role (as Richard Nixon did in 1973). Alternatively, he can leave it vacant (Harry S. Truman did not have a Vice President until 1949 and Andrew Johnson never had one).
 
Probably. Cambodia could still turn (as they're landlocked from China), but if the Khmer Rouge come to power, then I wouldn't expect them to stay 'communist' for very long.
 
Probably. Cambodia could still turn (as they're landlocked from China), but if the Khmer Rouge come to power, then I wouldn't expect them to stay 'communist' for very long.

Well, the Khmer Rouge didn't last very long IRL either, as it very quickly became a proxy war in the Sino-Soviet split. Anyways, I might go a SE Asia update next (deciding between that and Korea).
 
Probably. Cambodia could still turn (as they're landlocked from China), but if the Khmer Rouge come to power, then I wouldn't expect them to stay 'communist' for very long.
No way in hell is the Khmer Rouge coming to power as there without Arms and Bases with a Non-communist Vietnam and Laos.
 
Chapter 8 - The Burma War
Alright, next update is Korea, I promise! I just felt like throwing more oil on the fire of feverish Southeast Asia speculation.

The Burma War

Under the Maoist theory of war, revolutionary movements need to capture the periphery rural areas, build them into a revolutionary base area, and then drive into the core center from there. This tactic largely succeeded in Northeast China, and Mao intended to continue his application of this theory. However, the central country (Republican China) had largely not fallen yet. As a result, Maoist theory meant working towards a final confrontation by building more revolutionary base areas around the ROC - surrounding it with other Communist states.

As a result, Mao Zedong assumed control of the Second Field Army of the People’s Liberation Army, and instead of heading north, drove the army south, straight across the Yunnan-Burma border[1], to lend his support to the Communist insurgency against the Burmese military government. The People's Republic of China immediately denied all involvement or knowledge of Mao's plans, but few believed them except the Soviet Union, which had actual knowledge that Mao did not inform them of his plans. Most in the USSR were horrified at this provocation, but Stalin approved of Mao's plan after-the-fact.[2]

Mao had considered plunging into Vietnam, but he considered the internal politics too dicey and the nationalism too threatening, having heard of the various purges and counter-purges between the Vietnamese Communists of Ho Chi Minh and the Vietnamese Nationalists. However, Burma had a remarkably multifaceted rebellion against the government. With the Communist Party of Burma (“Red Flags”) and various ethnic movements in revolt, Mao figured he could build a Revolutionary Base Area in Burma as one of many groups. The Red Flags referred to the members of the Communist Party of Burma under Than Tun who refused to join in a coalition with the ruling Anti-Fascist People's Freedom League of U Nu, something done by the Communist Party of Burma "White Flags." Although the Red Flags started out the smaller dissident group in 1946, by the time Mao arrived in 1948, they had become the overwhelmingly larger group due to the AFPFL's marginalization of the White Flags.

Surprisingly, Mao was most popular not with Burma’s Chinese community, but rather with anti-government groups who viewed Mao’s “Yellow Flag Communists” as more or less a neutral arbiter on most ethnic issues. The quick acceptance of Mao’s aid surprised most international observers, but Burmese Communists believed his insistence that he had no imperial ambitions in Burma (due to his home country being across thousands of miles of his archenemy).[2]

In addition, Mao was one of the most enthusiastically violent proponents of land reform, with his Yellow Flags engaging in mass violence against landlords and suspected “class traitors,” a category of people that ended up significantly far larger than anyone could reasonably believe existed in a agrarian society. Finally, Mao’s army clearly outstripped both their allies and enemies in both military and administrative experience. With these advantages, the three Communist parties quickly coalesced into the “Popular Front for the Liberation of Burma,” with Mao as the theoretical weakest, but de facto strongest leader.

In response to the worrying advance of the Communists in Burma, British foreign affairs encouraged the overthrow of Prime Minister U Nu in a coup, bringing to power the more military-orientated Ne Win who British special forces concluded could defeat Mao. However, Ne Win proved to be a considerably more disastrous leader, unleashing waves of ethnic repression and bizarre economic policies that drove more peasants into the hands of the Communist front.[3] Worst of all, the socialist Ne Win’s vicious persecution of Chinese and Indian Burmese merchants alienated both Chiang and Nehru, who condemned Mao and forged closer ties with the UK, but did nothing to help Ne Win.[4] His troops would also engage in a terror spree in the countryside, hoping to massacre enough villages (especially ethnic minorities) in gruesome spectacles until there would be no more left capable of supplying Communist insurgents. Many members of the White Flag Communists were summarily executed by Ne Win's death squads after it was shown that many of them were supplying intelligence to the Red Flag Communists, causing the survivors to flee into the hands of the Red Flags.

As the situation continued to deteriorate, Prime Minister Churchill declared that Mao’s intervention in Burma constituted an invasion of Burma by Communist China, and in 1950, the first British, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealander forces landed in Burma, only 2 years after Burma’s hard-won independence.[5]
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[1] OTL, after the Civil War, a KMT army crossed that same border and camped out in Burma fighting with the Burmese government, but Mao comes with a LOT more men than the KMT ever did - and he's actively trying to forge a pan-Communist coalition to take down the central government.
[2] Mirrors OTL Stalin sorta-passively green-lighting the North Korea invasion of South Korea.
[3] OTL Ne Win literally declared all cash illegitimate and established a new base-9 currency because an astrologist told him 9 was a lucky number. Needless to say, the OTL Ne Win regime was known for total economic collapse. I'm pretty sure even Maoist China had a better record on economic growth than Ne Win's regime.
[4] Chiang doesn't take Mao seriously, seeing this as a total psycho move that will get Mao kicked in the face by BRitain.
[5] I'll address the UK eventually, but with a former British colony falling to Communism almost immediately after independence, Churchill looks a lot better in the 1950 elections and he narrowly wins (instead of narrowly losing).
 
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I hope Mao loses in Burma...but I also hope the Brits kick out Ne Win (despite just installing him).

OTL Ne Win was at the time more friendly to the West than U Nu. OTL, the KMT was US-sponsored, so Burma found it difficult to acquire Western military equipment. U Nu sought equipment from Tito's Yugoslavia, while Ne Win wanted it only from the UK. So that's part of my rationale for the British giving him the Ngo Dinh Diem treatment.

I also could be wrong, but I don't think the British would have any reason to know in 1950 that Ne Win is actually totally bonkers.
 
OTL Ne Win was at the time more friendly to the West than U Nu. OTL, the KMT was US-sponsored, so Burma found it difficult to acquire Western military equipment. U Nu sought equipment from Tito's Yugoslavia, while Ne Win wanted it only from the UK. So that's part of my rationale for the British giving him the Ngo Dinh Diem treatment.

I also could be wrong, but I don't think the British would have any reason to know in 1950 that Ne Win is actually totally bonkers.
Oh okay. By the way who is leading the nationalists in Vietnam? Is it Ngô Đình Diệm, Trình Minh Thế, or somebody else?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trình_Minh_Thế
 
Perhaps a better way to put it is a very different page of goofyville? At the heart of it, Northeastern China and North Korea are fundamentally very different societies and cultures. And that has some impact. For example, East Germany, Romania, and Hungary ended up very different kind of states, albeit with common themes. Course, I'm not exactly sure yet if NK develops OTL.





I had to double-check, but the division in Korea arose because the US/USSR couldn't agree on a unified coalition government in Korea, which is the same thing that happened in China. Except war didn't break out because of relatively smaller armies. That shouldn't be changed, so yeah, Two Chinas, Two Japans, Two Koreas, Two Scoops of Ice Cream.





Yes, though outside of Eastern Europe, that was kind of the norm for even Soviet-aligned Communist states. Think Cuba and Vietnam, both of whom were USSR-aligned but had distinct systems.

Given that this TL is in post 1900, I presume no "Tower" will appear in this TL?
 
Oh okay. By the way who is leading the nationalists in Vietnam? Is it Ngô Đình Diệm, Trình Minh Thế, or somebody else?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trình_Minh_Thế

You know, I don't know, I obviously haven't thought Vietnam through that well. My suspicion is all-of-the-above, because no giant PRC next to Communist Vietnam means that everyone vs. Ho Chi Minh isn't the natural political configuration. Honestly, I have to think this through properly because it might be a total cluster****.

Given that this TL is in post 1900, I presume no "Tower" will appear in this TL?

Well, I'd say the butterflies already present a severe setback for the political career of a certain Republican politician. Namely, it's unlikely that John Kennedy gets assassinated, elevating LBJ to the presidency, and giving John Tower a Senate seat that he wins. :p

In all seriousness, as a general rule, I don't like to plan ahead that much - I'm really doing this one step at a time. Because I don't really like it when TLs end up weirdly accurate parallels of IRL (like a certain series about the Confederacy).

What happened to Zhou Enlai ITTL?

IIRC, Zhou Enlai is Mao's direct second-in-command, so he should also be Mao'ing it up in Burma. Presumably, his diplomatic skills were a major boon in Mao's drive to establish Communist unity. Based on the armies Mao took with him, other people traveling with him should include Deng Xiaoping, Liu Bocheng, Jiang Qing, Yang Yong, and Chen Geng.
 
Probably. Cambodia could still turn (as they're landlocked from China), but if the Khmer Rouge come to power, then I wouldn't expect them to stay 'communist' for very long.

TBF there were other Marxist-Leninist factions besides the Khmer Rouge. If Cambodia does fall into an insurgency conflict, it might turn into a power struggle between the factions real fast.

EDIT: Actually there were other anti-US factions in Cambodia besides the Khmer Rouge, but only one was explicitly Marxist-Leninist. The others were supported by North Vietnam and Mao's China.
 
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