The Nicaragua Canals

Not being from the US, what would be the impact and other effects of Polk defeating Taylor in 1848 (aside from butterflying away the Fillmore Presidency)? Is it really the case that both Taylor and Fillmore were forgettable presidents to the point where butterflying them away would cause very little historical impact?

You ask a very important question. Which should have its own forum post but I have given it a little thought. In all honesty, it looks like an awful situation for the US to be in.

These were the events that lead up the Civil war from 1849 - 1854:
  • Mexican–American War
  • Wilmot Proviso
  • Manifest destiny
  • Underground Railroad
  • Nashville Convention
  • Compromise of 1850
  • Fugitive Slave Act of 1850
  • Uncle Tom's Cabin
  • Kansas–Nebraska Act
I do not know how Polk is going to act on these types of issues. It's going to take a lot of research.

These were the events that lead up the Civil war from 1855 - 1860:
  • Bleeding Kansas
  • Caning of Charles Sumner
  • Dred Scott v. Sandford
  • The Impending Crisis of the South
  • Brown's raid on Harpers Ferry
  • 1860 presidential election
  • Crittenden Compromise
  • Secession of Southern States
  • Star of the West
  • Corwin Amendment
  • Morrill Tariff
  • Battle of Fort Sumter
There is not a lot of incidents until the 1860 Presidential election.

My thought is that the American public will probably want to vote in a Whig in 1854 and Democrats will be uneasy with this because of Polk's long list of accomplishments. Annexing Cuba and buying Nicaragua will only add to the divide. Presidential Whig's post-1854 instead of Democrats is only going to escalate the legitimacy for an earlier civil war not just because of Whig Presidents but Cuba made high profits notably in sugar, molasses, rum and tobacco which gives the Confederate states a more backbone economy and offshore military bases.

It's all dependent on Polk's political performance from 1849-54. One would like to believe he sees the consequences of his conquests and somehow makes the US free of slavery. I would have to research each perspective of the Nashville Convention, Compromise of 1850, Fugitive Slave Act of 1850, Kansas–Nebraska Act and Bleeding Kansas from Democratic, whig and public opinion. I only say this because with Polk you can argue for his pro-slavery view and his anti-slavery view. Then you wonder how on earth would he be able to accomplish that without civil war. I really don't know if a US civil war could start in 1854 with Polk still in office. Regardless of this, I think he becomes more of a fundamental reason for causing the civil war, if not the sole reason if there are not any more democratic presidents after 1854.
 
Last edited:
Not sure of the PODs though some rough ideas include:

A screwed Mexico losing territory to both the US and Guatemala or a British (or Anglo-French)-backed Maya state (including Guatemala/Yucatan/Belize) could focus on building the Isthmus of Tehuantepec canal despite the costs/etc involved (perhaps other country backs their canal project), with the Maya state pursuing their own canal project.

A French/Huguenot Central American state (provisionally dubbed New Aquitaine) composed of Honduras and El Salvador opts to build their canal project.

The US focuses on Nicaragua instead of Panama.

While a stable surviving Gran Colombia stretching up to Costa Rica opts to build not one both three canal projects (including ATL version of OTL Panama canal).

This link is invaluable for a 'screwed Mexico' however it will take a darker character than Polk to draw Senator's Houston line in the treaty negotiations. (http://dsl.richmond.edu/historicalatlas/94/a/?legend=hidden&view=plate) Believe it or not, I read that the Mexicans would not sign any treaty agreement because they thought the slavery debate would cause friction in congress and even held out that it would cause a civil war. That is why they held out for so long.

For a French puppet state to occur in Central America, France is going to need to invest heavily in medicine around 1840s. Better medicine prevents deaths, diseases and makes the French population boom. Higher population means higher french people in industrial production and the military service. This increases sovereign power within the French geopolitical reach around the globe. This allows France to size up against the US.
 
This link is invaluable for a 'screwed Mexico' however it will take a darker character than Polk to draw Senator's Houston line in the treaty negotiations. (http://dsl.richmond.edu/historicalatlas/94/a/?legend=hidden&view=plate) Believe it or not, I read that the Mexicans would not sign any treaty agreement because they thought the slavery debate would cause friction in congress and even held out that it would cause a civil war. That is why they held out for so long.

Do any particular candidates stand out?

For a French puppet state to occur in Central America, France is going to need to invest heavily in medicine around 1840s. Better medicine prevents deaths, diseases and makes the French population boom. Higher population means higher french people in industrial production and the military service. This increases sovereign power within the French geopolitical reach around the globe. This allows France to size up against the US.

It would be fascinating to see how a French Central American state (in OTL Honduras and El Salvador) effects the Second French intervention in Mexico in this scenario.
 

kernals12

Banned
In all seriousness, the construction of the Panama Canal, instead of a Nicaraguan one, was a massive error that has cost us dearly to this day. Imagine how big and efficient ships could be if they didn't need to be designed to squeeze through the Panama Canals' narrow waterways.
 
In all seriousness, the construction of the Panama Canal, instead of a Nicaraguan one, was a massive error that has cost us dearly to this day. Imagine how big and efficient ships could be if they didn't need to be designed to squeeze through the Panama Canals' narrow waterways.

Very good point. Apparently you could fit up to 18,000 teu and even over 25,000 teu through a Nicaraguan canal whereas Panama can now only fit 12,000 and 4,500 teu. However the advantage Panama has which Nicaragua does not have is these chamber locks which they have to pass through to get the cargo ship on the Nicaragua lake. The easiest way around that is to built multiple chambers for multiple cargo ships to pass through at the same time.
 

kernals12

Banned
Very good point. Apparently you could fit up to 18,000 teu and even over 25,000 teu through a Nicaraguan canal whereas Panama can now only fit 12,000 and 4,500 teu. However the advantage Panama has which Nicaragua does not have is these chamber locks which they have to pass through to get the cargo ship on the Nicaragua lake. The easiest way around that is to built multiple chambers for multiple cargo ships to pass through at the same time.
In 1896 and 1898, the commission created by the US congress to determine where the transoceanic canal should be built twice recommended Nicaragua. They were all set to start construction when, in 1902, there was a volcanic eruption on the island of Martinique, killing 28,000 people. The company that owned the land along the Panama route immediately took advantage and fearmongerred about a potential eruption of Momotombo in Nicaragua. It worked.
 
IMO, the most likely for the U.S. is the Mexico canal, because it shaves the most off transit times. (Also, Heinlein proposed it.)

IDK if anybody'd build the rest. In the long run, the U.S. ends up the main beneficiary, by shortening transit time or cost between East & West coasts.

That said, I'd love to see all of them built, too.
 
IMO, the most likely for the U.S. is the Mexico canal, because it shaves the most off transit times. (Also, Heinlein proposed it.)

IDK if anybody'd build the rest. In the long run, the U.S. ends up the main beneficiary, by shortening transit time or cost between East & West coasts.

That said, I'd love to see all of them built, too.

Ok so when people say you would like to see all the canals built, is that good or bad for economic trade and competition. Competition would be extremely high to get any cargo ship through any one of the canals. In the 1850s there was only 7% of world trade, in comparison today it is 30%.

In order to have a reason to build that many canals you need an enormous amount of economic trade pull between Europe and Asia, so they travel through Central America............

Now you have gotten me interested now!! Bloody hell!! I don’t usually let go once I gotten interested.

It’s going to be HUGE and OUTRAGEOUS, so hold to your seats!!!!
 
Ok so when people say you would like to see all the canals built, is that good or bad for economic trade and competition. Competition would be extremely high to get any cargo ship through any one of the canals.
I'd say it leads to lower canal fees for any given project, & likely a net lower income, which likely drives several (if not all) into bankruptcy.

IMO, the economics for all being built likely isn't there: it's pure rule of cool.:cool:
 
Do any particular candidates stand out?

It would be fascinating to see how a French Central American state (in OTL Honduras and El Salvador) effects the Second French intervention in Mexico in this scenario.

I’ll have a look in the 1845 US presidential election. Polk was the dark horse candidate in Democratic primary. It was not his victory for the taking so to speak.

I don’t know much about Central American politics. I’ll have a look into it, thanks.
 
Last edited:
When I said 'huge' and 'outrageous' I did not mean ASB.

Perfectly aligned scenarios:


James K. Polk initiation to build a Nicaraguan canal prompts nations around the globe to build themselves one given the economic trade between Asia and Europe.

Prince Felix of Schwarzenberg reforms the Austrian empire in the Revolutions of 1849-51 and expands German Confederation borders to all of Austria gaining the upper hand in being able to create ‘Greater Austria’. A customs union is created between the Austrian Empire and the German Confederation creating the need for massive trade around the globe. The plan is to create a federation of monarchies, by liberating, creating and including the kingdoms of Romania, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia into a federal superstate of Europe whilst his future aims are to include the kingdoms of Poland and Ukraine.

Imperial Qing trade policy was broadly isolationist, with the Qianlong Emperor notably proclaiming that: “Our land is so wealthy and prosperous that we possess all things. Therefore, there is no need to exchange the produce of foreign barbarians for our own.”

Japanese Empire (Meiji restoration)

Drift scenarios of 20-30 years:

Simón Bolívar creates a union of Spanish colonies out of Columbia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru. (1820s – 1830s)

Dom Pedro I takes over Brazil and invades Portugal keeping the Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil and the Algarves United. (1815–1822) Dom Pedro I then marry Isabella II of Spain creating the second Iberian Union and the United Kingdom of Brazil, Portugal, Spain and Algarves.

The United Kingdom of the Netherlands remains intact. No state encroachment on Belgium traditional privileges or enforcement in using of the Dutch language in the south. Belgium Netherlands is given autonomy within the Kingdom and more power through more provinces given they represent 62% of the entire population. (The more populous Southerners felt significantly under-represented because of numerous northern provinces.)

Completely designed scenarios:

Maratha Confederacy - “According to British economist Angus Maddison from 1858 to 1947, India's share of the world economy collapsed from 24.4% to 4.2% between 1700 and 1950. India experienced deindustrialization. Compared to the Mughal Era, India during the British colonial era had a lower per-capita income, a large decline in the secondary sector, and lower levels of urbanisation.”

Étienne Eustache Bruix is picked as the fleet admiral to take Napoleon to Egypt instead of François-Paul Brueys d'Aigalliers. Bruix anchors the French Fleet properly at Aboukir Bay but Nelson attacks. The defensive line repulses the British and the battle rages for days. (maybe longer than over 3 as it did.) The French counter-attack upon the British retreat to penetrate the defensive line and through an exhausted and damaged British fleet, the French encircle the British and pick them off, winning the Battle of the Nile. As a result, Sidney Smith cannot get to Acre and improve the fortification because of French dominance in the eastern Mediterranean. Napoleon besieges Acre and defeats the Ottomans and signs a treaty create French Egypt and Syria.

Via the Red Sea, the French begin sending French troops and supplies to India in aid to battle the British. In the end, the Martha Confederacy land is not conquered but the state begins to modernize under French influence. The British are driven out of India which gave France the perfect opportunity to create French India; Napoleon, however, became too ambitious back home and was defeated by a coalition of nations. Instead, the Martha confederacy came to dominate the Indian sub-continent after the Napoleonic wars and was able to withstand Western influence through French modernization.

In the Frankfurt proposals of 1814 instead of Napoleon being offered France’s ‘Natural borders’ along the Rhine, Metternich offers Napoleon French Egypt and Syria with a Bonaparte on the French throne. Napoleon accepts.
 
Top