The next nukes

Suppose Japan refuses to surrender after Nagasaki. When and where will the next nukes fall?
 
To see the 3rd nuke coming, you must have Kyujo Incident succeeded, so that Japan decided not to surrender, while the Emperor would be put under house arrest. The third target would obviously not be Tokyo as suggested by the All Evil Wikipedia, after all it would not be wise to nuke the capital of Japan. The United States intended to nuke Kokura instead of Nagasaki on August 9, so it may well be a possibility for the third target. If there are other choices, they would be Sapporo, Hakodate, Kyoto or even Osaka. If Osaka got nuked, then the reconstruction would be far more difficult, and Japan would not possibly recover until the early 1960s; while nuking Kyoto would mean a kind of cultural genocide, which would have extremely negative effects as well. Depends on the Soviet progress or plan to invade Hokkaido, the United States may very well try on Sapporo, Hokkaido.
 
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Nagasaki was not even on the original target plan. In addition to Hiroshima, three other cities were market for possible destruction: Kokura, Niigata, and Kyoto. Nagasaki was to be a secondary target, in case something went wrong.

When the plane carrying Fat Man appeared over Japan, the crew's orders were to nuke Kokura, but since clouds and smoke from the nearby fire-bombed city of Yahata obscured the city, they moved on to their secondary target, Nagasaki.

So Kokura would have likely been the next target, followed by Niigata and Kyoto. After that, they would have been virtually no other targets, given that almost every other major city in Japan had already been firebombed.
 
I thought that Kyoto had been vetoed precisely becuse it was a cultural capital, or at that stage were they just getting tired and thinking 'Sod it, drop the big one' on it anyway?
 
Did we have another nuke yet at the time, or had we shot our wad? If we would have to build the third nuke, how long would it take?
 
Did we have another nuke yet at the time, or had we shot our wad? If we would have to build the third nuke, how long would it take?

I think the scientists were telling the US government that they would be able to churn out 7 nukes in a relatively short time.
 
Did we have another nuke yet at the time, or had we shot our wad? If we would have to build the third nuke, how long would it take?

The next Fat Man-class bomb would be ready by August 20 at the latest. The core was ready in Los Alamos by August 13; allow a week at most for shipment, that makes the 20th. After that bombs would be ready at a rate of 2-3 per month, with production increasing to 7-10 by December as the kinks were worked out of the enrichment plants and Los Alamos finished the levitated composite-core design.
 
I thought that Kyoto had been vetoed precisely becuse it was a cultural capital, or at that stage were they just getting tired and thinking 'Sod it, drop the big one' on it anyway?

Yes, Secretary of War Stimson struck Kyoto off the list of targets because he had visited there during his honeymoon and thought it culturally important to survive.
 
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