The Next Nomads

[legumes]

Alright so for this topic the basis is that blackpowder is never discovered in 11th century Song China. No one else in China is able to find or properly record it for quite some time, and when they do it just doesn't spread to the west. Now assuming first that the Mongols show up on schedule with or without Ghengis, and conquer their vast empire without spreading gunpowder. Now the Mongols as we all know were the largest and greatest of the nomadic empires. However they weren't the last, the final truely great one was the Timurids, and there were some that stuck around harassing the domestic states like before, albeit on a smaller scale due to gunpowder and organized armies crushing their old tactics.

So that begs the question, if there were no gunpowder who or what would the next nomadic empire be? I understand that unforetuneately a few minor ASBs may be necessary, and iotl we do have some examples like the Crimean Khanate, Manchus, Polish and Russian Cossacks, and others. The other effect would be on the settled peoples, what accomplishments and developements would still happen, and what is unlikely due to the circumstances?

 

[Zincvit]

The Manchus are not nomads:
"The Qing dynasty is mistakenly confused as a nomadic empire by people who wrongly think that the Manchus were a nomadic people,[58] when in fact they were not nomads,[59][60] but instead were a sedentary agricultural people who lived in fixed villages, farmed crops, and practiced hunting and mounted archery."

Nomadic empire - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[alexmilman]

Alright so for this topic the basis is that blackpowder is never discovered in 11th century Song China. No one else in China is able to find or properly record it for quite some time, and when they do it just doesn't spread to the west. Now assuming first that the Mongols show up on schedule with or without Ghengis, and conquer their vast empire without spreading gunpowder. Now the Mongols as we all know were the largest and greatest of the nomadic empires. However they weren't the last, the final truely great one was the Timurids, and there were some that stuck around harassing the domestic states like before, albeit on a smaller scale due to gunpowder and organized armies crushing their old tactics.

So that begs the question, if there were no gunpowder who or what would the next nomadic empire be? I understand that unforetuneately a few minor ASBs may be necessary, and iotl we do have some examples like the Crimean Khanate, Manchus, Polish and Russian Cossacks, and others. The other effect would be on the settled peoples, what accomplishments and developements would still happen, and what is unlikely due to the circumstances?

The Ukrainian and Russian Cossacks were not nomads and neither were in a position to create an “empire” of their own. The closest thing to the statehood was the Hetmanate but even it did not manage to survive as an independent state and within few years had to look for a greater power willing to accept it as a vassal. Actually, both groups had been heavily relying upon the firepower.

Now, if the gunpowder is never invented, the GH may have a better chance for survival because the firepower was a significant factor in the Muscovite OTL operations. The same goes for the Crimean Khanate: it even may avoid being Ottoman vassal. However, the GH was in a big trouble before the firearms became a factor and the Crimean Khanate was lacking the resources needed for making it into a great empire: it could mobilize big numbers of warriors for a short time and, while they were a serious threat to the neighbors, it should not be forgotten that their fighting abilities had been steadily deteriorating: by the early XVI majority of the raiders could not afford the swords and had to avoid a direct confrontation with a better equipped opponents.

But a complete absence of a gunpowder means the huge changes all over the world so it probably makes sense to talk only about its invention being delayed by few decades or a couple centuries.

 

[Byzantion]

Alright so for this topic the basis is that blackpowder is never discovered in 11th century Song China. No one else in China is able to find or properly record it for quite some time, and when they do it just doesn't spread to the west. Now assuming first that the Mongols show up on schedule with or without Ghengis, and conquer their vast empire without spreading gunpowder. Now the Mongols as we all know were the largest and greatest of the nomadic empires. However they weren't the last, the final truely great one was the Timurids, and there were some that stuck around harassing the domestic states like before, albeit on a smaller scale due to gunpowder and organized armies crushing their old tactics.

So that begs the question, if there were no gunpowder who or what would the next nomadic empire be? I understand that unforetuneately a few minor ASBs may be necessary, and iotl we do have some examples like the Crimean Khanate, Manchus, Polish and Russian Cossacks, and others. The other effect would be on the settled peoples, what accomplishments and developements would still happen, and what is unlikely due to the circumstances?

I think you also referring to the hypothesis that the formation and centralisation and consolidation of both Russian and Chinese Empires (alongside the increased use of firearms) in Asia prevented Steppe peoples from making big raids or conquest again. According to the hypothesis without that raids would have continued to Western Europe until 19th Century. Eastern Europe experienced casually Tartar slave raids well into the late 18th Century OTL. Western Europe not experienced that since the death of Ögedai Khan and later Mönke Khan I think had last ambitions to start another invasion of Western Europe. Also ghe war between Halugu and Berke prevented more. The Golden Horde's ambitions had been defeated due to increased armored cavalry and fortifications at the edges of Eastern Central Europe. By Mid 14th Century there hadnt been much room for further big invasions except casual raids.

 

[Silver01]

The Ukrainian and Russian Cossacks were not nomads and neither were in a position to create an “empire” of their own. The closest thing to the statehood was the Hetmanate but even it did not manage to survive as an independent state and within few years had to look for a greater power willing to accept it as a vassal. Actually, both groups had been heavily relying upon the firepower.

Now, if the gunpowder is never invented, the GH may have a better chance for survival because the firepower was a significant factor in the Muscovite OTL operations. The same goes for the Crimean Khanate: it even may avoid being Ottoman vassal. However, the GH was in a big trouble before the firearms became a factor and the Crimean Khanate was lacking the resources needed for making it into a great empire: it could mobilize big numbers of warriors for a short time and, while they were a serious threat to the neighbors, it should not be forgotten that their fighting abilities had been steadily deteriorating: by the early XVI majority of the raiders could not afford the swords and had to avoid a direct confrontation with a better equipped opponents.

But a complete absence of a gunpowder means the huge changes all over the world so it probably makes sense to talk only about its invention being delayed by few decades or a couple centuries.

to be fair before fire arms became huge thing the GH was already in bad times timur laying waste it and the slow disitigration of the horde over the 15th century by other steppe nomads breaking off and lipnic despite the high casualties showed that sendetary people could defeat them but we dont have acount of the battle so maybe stephen used fire arms

what i do say is that the crimean khanate would be better as the russian strategy of forts and guns would be more flawed with out guns , but maybe we see eastern europe evolving more like the polish army of the otl.

 

[legumes]

The Manchus are not nomads:
"The Qing dynasty is mistakenly confused as a nomadic empire by people who wrongly think that the Manchus were a nomadic people,[58] when in fact they were not nomads,[59][60] but instead were a sedentary agricultural people who lived in fixed villages, farmed crops, and practiced hunting and mounted archery."

Nomadic empire - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Ukrainian and Russian Cossacks were not nomads and neither was in a position to create an “empire” of their own. The closest thing to the statehood was the Hetmanate but even it did not manage to survive as an independent state and within few years had to look for a greater power willing to accept it as a vassal. Actually, both groups had been heavily relying upon the firepower.

Thanks for correcting me.

I think you also referring to the hypothesis that the formation and centralization and consolidation of both Russian and Chinese Empires (alongside the increased use of firearms) in Asia prevented Steppe peoples from making big raids or conquest again. According to the hypothesis without that raids would have continued to Western Europe until the 19th Century. Eastern Europe experienced casually Tartar slave raids well into the late 18th Century OTL. Western Europe not experienced that since the death of Ögedai Khan and later Mönke Khan I think had last ambitions to start another invasion of Western Europe. Also, the war between Halugu and Berke prevented more. The Golden Horde's ambitions had been defeated due to increased armored cavalry and fortifications at the edges of Eastern Central Europe. By Mid 14th Century there hadn't been much room for further big invasions except casual raids.

More or less yes, it is a hypothesis I personally put stock into, although I should certainly do some more research. I do agree that western Europe is ultimately safe from about the 13th century onwards, so besides perhaps a heavier reliance on older styled fortifications, and heavy cavalry lasting a while longer, this part may not be entirely different. However, as stated Eastern Europe will still be wide open for raids, and a Russian organized army may not have much effect, but as someone else pointed out a Polish or Hungarian style of army may replace that. In fact who really knows, perhaps this world never gets a Russian Tsar or Ottoman Sultan? Speaking of which, China, India, and the Near East are also still vulnerable. China under either Qing or Ming will still have to play off the Mongol remnants, Afghan tribes may still invade India, and Turkic khans may still lord over Persia and Egypt. Just some thoughts.