Southeast Asia in Turmoil
Dai Viet under the To dynasty was defined by the Red River. Along the coastal lands and lowland river deltas, where farming was easy and merchant contact frequent, a distinct and Sinicized culture developed. Uniquely for their region, they resisted the influence of the Indosphere, an influence which penetrated even the highlands to their north, where Tai tribes aggressively resisted the colonial resettlement and cultural assimilation projects of Chinese ministers, tacitly approved by the Yaol Emperors in the distant north.
The great sprawl of the Khmer Empire to the south did not touch Dai Viet for matters of geography – the independent and relatively lightly-governed highlands that delineated Southeast Asia prevented easy overland contact, and the presence of the behemoth Kitai Empire to the North always played a bigger role than any southern realm. Their traditional deities were not syncretized with Indra and Brahma, and rather than the Hindicized Buddhism of the south, their elites adopted the Taoist-Buddhism of China instead, and the common people maintained devotional folk cults to ancestral cults and various nature gods, a system not so different from the incorporation of Shinto worship into Japanese Buddhism. Their temples were often pagoda tiered and decorated with brightly painted Chinese iconography, deeply distinct from the rock-cut reliefs that ornamented the temples of the Kambuja. Both had a similar
horror vacui, a stylistic choice which in both cases worked to help visualize the divine for their audiences.
Unlike the Khmer Empire, which was corporate and feudal at the best of times – an association of Kambuja cities, guilds and temples bound by treaties and contracts – the Dai Viet were a bureaucratic regime modeled off of the Chinese example, and indeed in many senses followed the old bureacratic model more accurately than the Kitai did. The Kitai had morphed the Chinese bureaucracy to accommodate the exigencies of their steppe empire and their regime of outsiders. Buddhist religious orthodoxy had become a major component in the exam, and certain ethnic quotas had been established to ensure that Kitai sons could always find a place in bureaucracy.
By contrast, Dai Viet was a striking meritocracy, where men of any background could ascend to great heights. The To were descended from a line of ministers and petty government officials, and in their earlier decades (1190-1240) they deeply understood the benefit of finding capable men and rooting out corruption. This alone would have earned them the admiration of the peasantry, but the Exoteric Buddhist philosophies they adhered to focused on the welfare of the farmers above all – they stockpiled grain during famines and kept a well-ordered, well run state with numerous garrisons to defend against highland raiders.
The ascendency of the petty Shan states had thrown the Khmer into relative anarchy, and combined with the degradation of their traditional agricultural system due to a series of unforeseen ecological stresses, the thirteenth century saw the near-total erosion of their empire. The Kambuja city-states began asserting more autonomy, but their constant warring led to population collapse and opportunity for their subject peoples to begin rising up as well.
The Kingdom of Hsriwa, greatest of the Shan states, continued to win their wars after the debacles of 1258. What had begun as mere raids and punitive expeditions conducted back and forth along a gradually shifting border had become outright chaos. The Hsriwa Saopha (King) Hkun Hmom struck a devastating blow against an alliance of Kambujan armies in 1278, leading to the Hsriwa moving into what had once been the northern lands of the Dvaravati Mon, settling there and continuing to pressure the Kambuja cities into tributary status.
Unlike Dai Viet or even the rising power of Majachaiya, Hsriwa operated along the lines of the common model of the indigenous Indosphere empires. They were keen to establish a hegemonic tributary state, but were less eager to actually administer territories themselves. They kept the guilds active in regions they conquered, and rarely sacked cities outright, preferring to ransom and establish their own rule in the place of the Khmer. They were equally quick to begin the process of assimilation and cultural exchange, losing much of what made them distinctive as they became comfortable lords over the ruins of the Khmer Empire.
No power in Southeast Asia was truly capable of changing the rules of statecraft as they were known besides Majachaiya. As the Kingdom of the Radiant Tree continued to expand, their direct rulership and tendency to annihilate native guilds in favor of their own companies became an increasing worry to the remaining Southeast Asian polities, particularly the Champa and Indranokura. But there was little that could be done. The Champa remained divided and the Khmer Empire was a fiction perpetrated by a succession of puppet emperors in Angkor Thom. The Dai Viet might have been such a transformative polity, but they were ringed on most sides by hostile tribal peoples whose lands were marginal at best. The only clear avenue for expansion was towards the Champa, and there they met with little success. Kauthara, the greatest Champa city, would frequently come to the support of Indrapura and her other federate cities when the Dai Viet attempted one of their routine invasions, utilizing their fleet to blockade the Red River ports and deny Vietnamese merchants access to the sea, to say nothing of frequent coastal raids and punitive attacks.
Saopha Hkun Hmom was succeeded by his nephew Hseng Kaw in 1289. In a break from the tradition of cultivating alliances among other Shan princelings, Hseng Kaw arranged the marriage of his young daughter to the To monarch at the time, To Doung Hoan, whose own wife had recently died. The two leaders began making plans – Hseng Kaw was an ambitious man, who dreamed of uniting a vast territory from the surviving Kyauske rump state to what remained of Indranokura under his loose authority. More than a Saopha, he dreamed of being a Chakravartin. To this end, he knew that the Dai Viet could be immensely useful – even if they had a poor military track record, he was interested in learning the organizational techniques that they utilized. Hseng Kaw had seen the Dai Viet capital, Thang Kinh, and he had marveled at the wealth and the order of it. By contrast, the Saopha had no capital – rotating between his various forts, moving the court with the changing seasons.
Still, the pact and mutual exchange of knowledge was not to be. To Doung Hoan died fighting Tai hillmen on the border with the Kitai in a blossoming border war which by 1301 would spill over the border and lead to an outright clash between the Kitai, their Tai vassals, and the Southern Kingdom. Ambayhan, a half-Kitai half-Naiman commander, was tasked with leading a forty-thousand man expeditionary army to subdue the To dynasty and bring them to heel or annex them outright, whichever was more practical. His force was like nothing the Dai Viet Emperors had ever faced. The Kitai had a well-ordered and professional army, with ranks of disciplined tufenj-soldiers whose modern weapons, known as Che Dian Chong (literally “lightning quick firearm”) could fire at a rate far superior to the Champa armies. By contrast, Dai Viet had lagged behind in the adoption of tufenj.
If not for the fact that the traditional steppe cavalry arm, ubiquitous among major Yaol dynasty armies, had been utterly useless in the hills and marshlands of Dai Viet, Ambayhan would have won a crushing victory. As it was, he was reduced to a long, bloody campaign. Reinforcements, drawn from the garrisons of the southern provinces, fought and died in futile engagements and the To dynasty stubbornly held on in spite of everything. Finally, after five years of ineffective fighting, the Yaol dynasty withdrew, leaving Dai Viet a devastated ruin that would be ultimately overrun by Tai warlords from the north, fleeing the wave of persecution that the Kitai unleashed following their defeat in Dai Viet. It was easier, ultimately, to blame subversive elements within the state on their failure than admit that their tactics and strategies, adapted for fighting in the comparatively open north, were disastrous in the southern hills and forests.
Five years of devastating war in the south destroyed Dai Viet, but ultimately it be hard on the Yaol Dynasty as well. They had held the whole of China for two centuries, and the north for even longer, but times were changing. If they had brought unprecedented prosperity and opportunity to many, they were still foreigners, and the traditional systems of China were not easily cowed into submission. In the aftermath of the Southern War, the cracks in their armor would begin to become more and more evident.
However, China, for its part, remained prosperous and strong compared to the various polities of Southeast Asia. The relatively peaceful world order which had endured for several centuries under Kambuja hegemony was gone, and it was yet unclear what could replace it. Declining population and wealth led to a dark age of sorts. Warlords and mobs were as likely to destroy monasteries and temples as they were to found new ones, and the Shans' personal and tribal form of politics represented a regression from the complex mandala-systems organized by the Kambuja. As endemic warfare became commonplace, the hydraulic systems that sustained the Kambuja finally failed outright, leading to mass famines and apocalyptic chaos.
[I've attached a map of Southeast Asia circa 1311. Majachaiya is on the rise, but her conquests of Dammacraya and Kataha are not yet complete. Dammacraya for its part is at the peak of its power and prestige, and will eventually be reduced to a federation of highland tribes holding on against the Majachaiya juggernaut. The Isyana rump state will fall at the end of the year. Dai Viet is in ruins but hasn't yet been overrun by the Tai. Daksinakhand (Australia) has not yet received any permanent colonists worth noting on the map. Over the next generation Kyauske will fall more completely and be reduced to coastal cities and nothing more.
The choice to make all the Shan the same color is because their states at this juncture are pretty fluid and amorphous. They all have many vassals who at any point could rise up and take over as a major player in the story.]