The Neverending Détente

MrHola

Banned
Détente was a policy between the US and the USSR in the late 1960s and ending in the early '80s. Both nations became less agressive towards each other. The question is, how can we prevent the end of Détente?

Gerald Ford wins the 1976 elections (not that hard, since Carter only narrowly, managed to defeat Ford).

Ford then has to deal with the problems of the late '70s; Iran, economic woes, Afghanistan, the energy crisis, stagflation and so on.

The Republicans are thoroughly discredited, first Watergate and now all this. In 1980, Edward Kennedy wins the elections. I doubt Kennedy would challenge the USSR the way Reagan did in OTL.

Thoughts and possible effects on the world?
 
Even in the late 1970s, Detente was becoming unpopular. Also, the US will have to figure out how it wants to respond to something like a Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Reagan OTL was supported by a number of Democrats who favored his more aggressive policies. However, even then, Reagan was open to "peace" movements, for example his negotiations with Gorbachev nearly resulted in substantial disarmament.

Presumably, however, even if Detente flounders between 1972-1984, by about then Gorbachev is in power in Russia. Let's say Ted Kennedy is elected in 1980, but loses in 1984 to a Republican (GHW Bush, Nelson Rockefeller, Bob Dole -- it's hard to tell). Any of these Republicans are far different from Reagan's coalition and are more diplomacists than fans of lines like "Tear down this war." Absent Star Wars budget wars between the US and the USSR, the Gorbachev may have more of a chance to make glastnost and perestroika work. He may be aided by China under Deng Xiaopeng. {Note: this might have happened under Reagan too, had he realized that Gorbachev was serious about reform and had he really thought the USSR might fall}. With both Communist countries making inroads to change, the US might commit itself toward a policy of engagement (not dissimilar from that with China today). To really make this work, I think you'd need two things: 1) relaxation of the Warsaw Pact to allow those countries genuine self-determination, and 2) some kind of isolated episode to demonstrate the danager of the dissolution of the USSR. Perhaps Yugoslavia breaks up in a more explosive manner: Gorbachev in the fith year of Perestroika unilaterally offer the nations of the Warsaw Pact (Eastern Europe) a choice: they can become fully voting members of a renegotiated USSR or they can reorganize themselves under. Yugoslavia erupts in violence, prompting many to reconsider full independence. The US supports the reform of the USSR because it sees it as a valued partner in ensuring global peace (and in checking China).
 
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