What would be a possible course of events when the Netherlands were involved in the Great War?
The following scenario's are more related on the time when the Dutch are actively involved in the conflict rather than on which side.
In all scenario's it will be on the side of the Entente and not the Centrals.
This is based on the following.
Before the out break of WW1 there was a considerable anti British sentiment, which was a culmination of Nationalism, romantisising of the 17th century "Golden Age" and the assumed loss of this by the English. The Boer wars, where the Dutch re-discovered the Dutch speaking cousins in South Africa who challenged the mighty British Empire. Among militarist there was an admiration of the German/Prussian army and an admiration of the German economic power after the French German war of 1870.
Although this pro- German or anti British sentiments were considerable, throughout society it was not enough to join the side of the Central powers.
If chosen or forced to chose this German side it would give the Dutch no benefits and certainly complete loss of her colonial empire. Dutch east Indie would be immediately attacked and occupied by the British, or even worse by the Japanese. There West Indian possessions would be immediately sized by the British and French. The colonial forces and Navy units ( the colonies was the main reason of existence of the navy) would be no match for the 2nd and 3rd rate battle ships of the British.
The out come of a war was too uncertain and even with Central victory there would be no guaranty that the colonial possessions would be returned. The Netherlands saw no benefits in new colonies and annexing Belgium or parts of Belgium ( Flemish part) would only increase domestic problems ( Catholic vs Protestant).
Neutrality would be preferred above all, since war would only bring destruction and loss of lives, so it would be never a voluntary decision made by opportunity calculations as by example the Italians did.
The Dutch army was a conscript army and divided in two parts; the filed army, the young echelons and the fortification army the older echelons.
The army was up to date to 1914 standards, in the two decades before the war considerable budgets were made available for modernisation, but with an acknowledged short coming in modern heavy artillery. Equipment and armament of the soldiers was modern, with relative modern rifles, relative modern filed artillery and the filed army was dressed in a field grey uniform. As per contrast the French wore red trousers and blue coats. The training was comparable with German Ersatz units (reserve), and a number of officers had field experience from the Athjee war ending in 1902.
Strategy of the Dutch was; the field army had to delay the invading forces in a mobile war in order to gain time for the fortification army who prepared the inundations of the Waterline. When inundations are completed the field army would retreat behind the Waterline and wait until the conflict is ended. The battle had to be fought some were else.
During the build up of international tensions between June and August 1914 the Dutch government acted swift and determined, to safe guard neutrality. As a result the army was fully mobilised and the units at their designated location when hostilities broke out at the 4th of August.
The military intelligence was very rudimentary, but never the less surprising effective. Military intelligence prior to the outbreak of war was gathered by Dutch officers who went on holiday in Germany and simply observed the location, estimated amount of soldiers and army units. With this information the Dutch General staff had a fairly correct picture whether or not Germany was intend to invade the Netherlands.
Scenario A:
The Schlieffen plan is not changed and the South of the Netherlands is still the road of advance for German troops to Belgium and France.
Dutch asked for Belgian cooperation in 1912 but this was never replied. In the wake of invasion the Belgian asked for cooperation. The Dutch, due to their information gathering, understanding that violation of Dutch neutrality is evident agree.
Despite this cooperation between Dutch and Belgians is very difficult, if not counterproductive. This is mainly caused by the conflicts in the Belgian high command. It will improve considerable when King Albert take personnel command.
Dutch troops, 3rd and 4th division of the field army, are confronted by the German 1st Army advancing through the provinces of Limburg and Brabant.
the German 1st Army consist of first class trained soldiers and Dutch troops are pushed back. Heavy fighting and large casualties are suffered by the crossing of the river Meuse and the South Willems-vaart, a canal through Brabant. All or nearly all bridges were destroyed by the Dutch but this would not stop the German troops, it would only hamper their supply lines later.
German second rate troops would frontal attack at the river Ijssel, advancing to the Hollandse waterline.
German first rate troops will attack south of the river Meuse direct to the Moerdijk bridge and after that the port of Rotterdam in an attempt to circumnavigate the Dutch waterline.
Dutch troops of the 3rd and 4th division will retreat to the "South water line", a waterline South of the river Meuse, or at least try to hold a part of it. Most likely the area around the Moerdijk bridge, the only part of this waterline with reasonable up to date fortifications. The East part of this line would be given up or over run by the German troops who are advancing to Moerdijk.
Other units of the 3rd and 4th division are pushed back, the the West and North West. Again to the area around the Moerdijk bridge and around Bergen op Zoom keeping a line of communication with he Belgians and their Antwerp fortifications.
The summer of 1914 was a nice sunny one with not much rain. Consequence of this wheater is that ther will be not much water in the rivers. Especially not in the rivers Meuse and Ijssel what makes them a relative easy crossing. The low water level of all the rivers means that the inundation of the Hollandse water line will be more problematic and will take more time. The inundation is base on the controlled flooding of designated areas by means of sluices, no pumps are involved, except the stop of the draining pumps.
A determined, and planned attack by the Germans in August 1914 could give the Dutch not enough time to successfully inundate their Waterline, after German units are able to penetrate this line.
The forts of the Hollandse Water line are out dated and not capable of with standing the large siege artillery of the Germans, successful inundations will dramatically increase the defense.
Last resort would be "Stelling Amsterdam" also a water line with modern forts, but this would cut of the Dutch troops of any other allied force.
Two options :
1) the Germans are fast and determined enough to penetrate the Hollandse Waterline before inundations are completed. Dutch can capitulate, not likely in this time frame.
2) Fight will be continued in parts of the Province Zeeland. Improved communication and cooperation between the Dutch and the Belgians will increase the defense of Antwerp into Dutch West Brabant. likely a concentration of the Belgian army more to the North West rather than to the South.
Note the Belgians did not receive any significant military support of the British and French. Safe to assume that the Dutch and Belgians are left on their own in the first weeks or month of the conflict.
This could mean the Belgians will retreat North instead of South. Creating a small Northern front comprising a part of North Flanders, Dutch Flanders, part of Zeeland.
Scenario B
The Schlieffen plan is changed the road of advance for German troops to France is only through Belgium.
Dutch asked for Belgian cooperation in 1912 but this was never replied. In the wake of invasion the Belgian asked for cooperation. The Dutch, due to their information gathering, understanding that the Germans troop concentration is not at their border only South of the Province Limburg but no offensive units else were on the border. Dutch neutrality is most likely respected and the Dutch do not have any interest to get involved in the conflict by helping the Belgians.
Due to communication error German units of the German 1st Army crossing the Dutch border in Limburg. Dutch and German units get engaged in fights.
Word get out of this fighting. German diplomats issue an ultimatum, similar as they did to the Belgians. Dutch government rejects the German demands which result in declaration of war between the two nations.
German advance of the 1st Army will be more North, not obstructed by the small corridor between Liege and Maastricht. Never the less it will be confronted by the Dutch 3rd and 4th Division. Since there is no up to date German plan of attack for the Netherlands the German advance is an improvisation with the focus of path of advance of the 1st Army which need to be as fast in France.
Dutch will retreat more intact to Moerdijk, Bergen op Zoom, South waterline, since the bulk of the German force will be advancing through Limburg and South East of Brabant. Other Dutch divisions will be not immediately engaged, and when it will happen it will be with reserve units whihc losses the advance of sup price. The crossing of the Ijssel and the advance through the province of Gelre will be more problematic, most likely all the bridges crossing the rivers are demolished in time, giving the Dutch more time to complete the inundations.
By the time the Germans can move and fire their siege artillery on the Dutch forts of the Hollandse water line, the inundations are complete (despite the low water level of the rivers).
The siege artillery will destroy the forts but due to the inundations and ad-hoc filed work the line will hold. No doubt it will lead to the complete destruction of the city Utrecht and small picturesque towns as Naarden, Muiden, Cullemborg, Willemstad etc.
The same will be for the South, possible, after establishing communications and cooperation with the Belgians a connected front will be formed through the Isles of Holland and Zeeland to Antwerp or the West of Flanders, more or less as in scenario A.
For both scenarios the following can alter the course of war
Assuming the German advance is stopped later in France and the "race to the sea'' evolve as in OTL the West Front will ''freeze'' more to the South entirely on France soil. Maybe even at the river Seine.
Nearly a complete occupied Netherlands will open options for the Entente. Like for Churchill who had plans of invading the Dutch Norther Provinces Friesland, Groningen, German East Frisia, with the aim of occupying the German Naval base at Wilhelms Hafen.
An attack from the Hollandse water line, would be an option, certainly made by Entente Generals, but the water line is not really designed for this and not suited either and rejected by the Dutch generals.
A Dutch front will proved the Royal Navy an excellent base, nearly a the door step, against the German Imperial fleet.
A Dutch front would be a huge logistic challenge. It would need an almost uninterrupted supply of food and energy in order to feed the population of nearly 3 million civilians. This could trigger far more aggressive and frequent navy actions.
Scenario C
Germans execute "Fall K'' in February/March 1917 with the aim of controlling the Wester Scheld in order to give the U boats a better base for their unrestricted U boat war.
This time the German advance will be form the South and not the East, except for the Northern Provinces.
German troops are considerable harder and battle experienced than Dutch troops. Despite increase of MG's at the Dutch side, Germans can succeed. German aim fro the rest of the Netherlands is to drive the Dutch behind their water line, and pin them there, so it will cost as less as possible troops to guard this "Dutch"" front.
Dutch troops can give considerable resistance around Bergen op Zoom, since in this area is considerable reinforced in anticipation of a German attack on the Wester Scheld. Uncertain how entente response will be.