The Munich Blow-up

A looney diguise himself as a waiter and manage to blow up a bomb duting Munich conference, 1938.
I'm not interested what his reasons are: maybe the fairies told him to do so.
The point is that Daladier, Chamberlain , Hitler and Mussolini are dead.
How would it evolve?
 
Pure fucking chaos! :eek:

All the big four are dead and the witch hunts to find those "responsible" begin. I guess Attlee becomes PM for the UK, not sure in France, but Italy and Germany are in total chaos as there's no clear succession for either and a lot of power-hungry players.

Maybe Goering in Germany if the army backs him. The SS isn't powerful enough yet.

Italy...Ciano probably, but he'd better get the king and army to openly support him before someone like Farinacci or the MVSN makes a play for power.

By the time the dust settles you're looking at a completely different European situation that's hard to predict.
 
Petain could be Dalaier successon in such a circumstance.

Stalin is suspect #1 (even if he is innocent, actually), and as a gesture of goodwill drop any aid to republican spain
on the other hand Franco has no appeciable support from the axis powers (chaos rages) and the spain civil war grinds to a bloody stalemate.

Czecho-slovakia is suspect #2 (even it is innocent), so pherhaps germany gets the sudetenland anyway
 
The vice president of the council in France was Camille Chautemps, OTL a bit of a collaborationist. But also not much chance for the premiership. He would have assumed control until the chamber elected a new President

Possibly Blum returns, or Reynaud gets in early. There are lots of possible candidates from the crazy mix that was French politics in the 30's.

Probably depends somewhat on who did it or who gets blamed.

France itself will be pretty stable.
 

King Thomas

Banned
The Russian army in 1938 was too weak because of Stalin's purges to march west. even with the German army disorganized in the short term. Russia had lost the number of army, navy and air force officers to the bullets of the NKVD or the GULAG that countries normally lose only in battle in a major war.
 
No, because Attlee was leader of the Labour Party, and Chamberlain was a Tory. Would it therefore be Halifax?

Perhaps. Eden probably just ruled himself out by resigning from his office earlier that year. John Simon or Samuel Hoare were pretty prominent in the Chamberlain's cabinet, so perhaps they are options.
 

Cook

Banned
Perhaps. Eden probably just ruled himself out by resigning from his office earlier that year. John Simon or Samuel Hoare were pretty prominent in the Chamberlain's cabinet, so perhaps they are options.

Samuel Hoare, the Home secretary looks most likely to take over to me.
Simon was Chamberlain’s Poodle even if he was Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Halifax is out because he’s in the House of Lords.
A best case would be Duff Cooper, First Lord of the Admiralty and most vocal critic of Appeasement inside the Cabinet at the time to take over but doubtful he’d have the numbers to do it and would have been taking policy in a very different direction.
Going outside cabinet opens it up to Churchill and Eden.

With Hitler dead Herman Goering would be next in line. He wasn’t keen on a war and was inclined to peaceful resolution of the crisis, however such a terrorist attack would be seen as an act by the Czech state, so he may have given the go ahead to the full invasion on the 1st of October as planned, believing that Britain and France would not stand with the perpetrators of such an outrageous crime.
He’d have taken the opportunity presented by the terrorist attack to eliminate every opponent to the regime and any opponents to himself within it.

Count Ciano was at Mussolini’s side throughout the conference so would have been killed with him.


 

Eurofed

Banned
As others have stated, Goring (or an army junta) would be the obvious successors to Hitler. It is worthy to note that at this time, the anti-Nazi generals had a rather well geared coup plot ready to spring up if Hitler had given order to invade Czechoslovakia, so they could easily seize power if Germany looks like any slipping into chaos. OTOH, Goring was the by far most influential Nazi bigwig after Hitler, a foreign policy moderate as Nazis went, and somewhat popular with the army, so in the wake of a terrorist attack on the Fatherland, the generals may back up Goring instead, esp. if he gives timely guarantees of a moderate foreign policy (so no order for invasion, the generals would not back it up without guarantees that UK and France approve it). So in my reasoned opinion it is a coin toss between Hermann and an Heer junta.

Now, as far as the new foreign policy of Germany goes, there are not going to be substantial differences either way: Goring was a neo-Wilhelmine moderate that supported retaking the Sudetenland and the territories lost to Poland in 1919 but had no interest in Lebensraum and was strongly adverse to war with the Western powers. As for the generals, they strongly support retaking Sudetenland and as closer to the 1914 border as possible, but they don't want any war with the West and would deem Germany a satisfied power after all the irredentist claims are satisfied.

Given that the bombing is going foster some solidarity between the four powers, I expect a German-Western detente and confirmation of appeasement to be in the wings after the new leaders are stabilized.

As it concerns Italy, given that Mussolini and Ciano are dead, the most likely successor are either an army junta, if the king and the generals decice that the fascist regime has outlived its usefulness, or alternatively Balbo looks like the most plausible successor, he was charismatic, rspected by the army, and popular. The army would almost surely suppress any attempt by Farinacci and the radicals.

In both cases, the new Italian leadership would have been less enthusiastic to go along with Hitler's adventures, but they are going to find no big problem to align themselves with a moderately irredentist/expansionist German policy that strives to satisfy its objectives without a general war. It's pretty much the same thing they would want to do themselves. So Italy shall maintain the Axis and keep a less bombastic foreign policy while looking for the good opportunity to expand in the Western Balkans, grabbing Albania and destroying Yugoslavia in combination with Hungary and Bulgaria. They are going to leave Greece alone, however, too dear to Britain.

As it concerns Britain and France, I am not so familiar as to name a successor, but I would expect that someone would be named that would continue the appeasement policy. In all likelihood, a different party than Germany or Italy would be blamed (quite proabably Czech nationalists and/or the Communists) so Anglo-French leadership would see this terrorist attack as a confirmation of the munich policy, and the moderate course of the new German & Italian leaderships would confirm this.

As I said, it is most likely that Prague, Moscow, or the Comintern at large get blamed. So after the political chaos gets settled, the Munich conference would reconvene and the cession of the Sudetenland would get reaffirmed even more vigorously.

What happens to Europe essentially depends on what Stalin does, whether he thinks of exploiting the perceived weakness of the capitalist powers (or pre-empting their anti-communist alliance) or gets cowed.

Scenario 1:

If Stalin is cowed by the European united front, Germany gets the Sudetenland and leaves rump Czechia alone. Britain and France are pleased with Germany keeping its word and deem the appeasement strategy and success. So when Germany makes its last claims in Europe about Poland, they make Munich II and back Berlin's claims on the Corridor and Upper Silesia. Poland is alone and it is a coin's toss whether they give in or go into a kamizake lone fight with Germany, but Paris and London shake their head at Pole stubborness and look the other way in the latter case. Germany grabs the 1914 border and sets up Poland as a satellite, which the Western powers find acceptable.

In the meanwhile, Italy exploits the situation to annex Albania and pick a fight with Yugoslavia in combination with Hungary and Bulgaria with Croat nationalist skirmishes as the casus belli. Paris and London shake their heads but they aren't going to spill their blood to save Serbia's little empire, the British could not care less and for France the usefulness of Yugoslavia as a client has expired with appeasement. It takes some time for Italy to win but the rebellion of Slovenia and Croatia seals the doom of Yugoslavia. Italy annexes Dalmatia and Montenegro and sets up Slovenia and Croatia as clients, maybe grabbing a piece of Slovenia. Germany quietly supports and maybe grabs a piece of Slovenia, too. Hungary reannexes Vojvodina and Bulgaria grabs Vardar Macedonia.

Germany and Italy become satisfied powers, and gradually build a strong detente with the Western powers, Stalin does not dare to do anything against a united Europe and WWII in Europe is butterflied away. At some point a war between Hungary and Romania for Transylvania occurs, the outcome is not certain but most likely Hungary recovers northern Transylvania. The Spanish Civil War goes the same way as OTL.

At some point a war between Japan and Russia is possible, which ends up in a stalemate, Russia grabs Manchuria and Japan grabs Sakhalin. Japan is unlikely to do anything in South East Asia but keeps bleeding in China until it realizes it can't win. Unless Russia intevenes to back Chiang and/or Mao, which could bring a detente between Britain, America, and Japan as they join hands to keep Russia out of China. Not a direct intervention, likely, but strong support to whatever local anti-Communist proxy in China they can find. Perhaps trying to steer Chiang back to anti-Communism in exhcangw with Japanese withdrawl. Difficult to foresee China's ultimate fate, but some kind of division between Red and KMT China seems the most likely outcome.

The world remains a multipolar imperialistic place with America, Russia, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan all worthy greeat powers vying for influence as decolonization veerryy slow happens and fascism and communism remain respectable ideologies.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Scenario 2:

Czechia and/or Russia get blamed for the bombing and Stalin gets confident that he can exploit the opportunity. Same as above, except that Czechoslovakia refuses to implement the Munich Agreement, because it has got strong guarantees of military backing from the Soviet Union.

Germany declares war on Czechoslovakia with the approval of France and Britain, soon followed by Hungary. The USSR decides to send troops to Czechoslovakia, asks for right of passage to Poland and Romania, and declares war to Germany & Hungary. Poland, scared at seeing the Red Army crossing its territory and deployed all along along its southern border, and eager to get its share of Czechoslovakia, refuses passage to the Soviets. Stalin orders the Red Army to force Polish borders open, and Poland declares war to Moscow and Prague. Yugoslavia decides to be true to its alliance to Czechoslovakia. Italy, always eager to grab its long-standing claims in Yugoslavia, declares war to Russia and its allies. Romania wavers between conflicting alliance committments to Czechoslovakia and Poland, refuses passage to the Soviets as well, but eventually decides that the USSR is the bigger threat, and joins the anti-Soviet coallition.

Britain and France, true to their word at Munich, and worried at seeing the Red Army rampaging in Eastern Europe, quietly support the actions by Germany and Italy. Soviet actions reinforce the suspicions that the Czechs and the Soviets are to blame for the Munich bombing, which looks more and more like a nasty Bolshevik plot to invade Europe.

They take an hardline anti-Communist stance, depending on political butterflies they may remain officially neutral but pour a lot of financial and equipment support to Germany, Italy, nationalist Spain, and the rest of the anticommunist coalition (republican Spain gets officially relabeled as a Stalinist puppet and no effort is spared to crush it ASAP). Crappy post-Purges Red Army gets bog down in Poland & Romania, which gives Germany and Italy the time to rearm with western support and prepare to roll the Soviets back. Japan is quietely advised by Britain that it may get a lot of support and recognition of Manchukuo if they let China be and join the anti-Communist crusade. They decide to follow the advice.

Alternatively, and even more likely if Russia attacks Finland, too (the Baltic states are overrun anyway as soon as war starts), which it could easily do, given Soviet obsession with making Leningrad safe, Britain and France can directly join the anti-Communist crusade. Anglo-French planes bomb Baku, Russia declares war to Britain and France, and an Anglo-French expeditionary corps joins the fight in Eastern Europe.

A different WWII unfolds, with Stalin in Hitler's shoes, Axis powers playing the OTL role of Soviet Russia, and America remaining neutral.

Scenario 3 instead sees a more gradual and later build-up of tensions between Soviet Russia and the European great powers, as Stalin becomes convinced that they are going to make a united front against him and he needs to make a pre-emptive attack. Increasing Soviet hostility of course get the Euro powers closer and closer, making Stalin's paranoid expectations a self-fulfilling prophecy, until sometime between 1940 and 1943 war breaks out between the URSS and the Euro coalition. In this scenario it is a coin's toss which side opportunistic Japan decides to side on. If they make an unholy alliance with Soviet Russia, this almost surely brings America into the fight.
 
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to summarize

Chautemps or Petain or someone fairly right-winged in france
Hoare or Halifax in the UK
Goering with a military junta in Germany, SS remain with little power and Himmler is considered a "decent chap, honest, reliable guy, with just some funny ideas about racial purity"
Italy could be with balbo and a military junta, or maybe revert to the first Duce: D'annunzio (however, he is politically incompetent, and anyway will die during the same year).
Anyway, less powers to the new Duce and more powers to the King (thus a reappeasment with UK)
Spanish war as OTL
Sudetenland and maybe Danzig to the Reich with the consensus of international community.
I'm not sure Stalin would try to roll dices at war: he was scared shit of being attacked by the west powers and/or being deposed by a military junta (thus the purges in the Red Army), and would accept anything to prove he is innocent
no russo-finnish war, Rumania do not loose bessarabia, baltic states intact
I do not think Italia would involve itself in Albania since the Albania annexion was masterminded by ciano (which is dead), however some frontier correction with yogoslavia will be done.
Nobody will EVER dream of having a conference like Munich, Yalta or Potsdam; foreign minister will be not-a-so-much-aspired position, phone conferences will become more used.
Is skype nearer? :)
 
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