Imperial Germany + Europe, Russia, USA (+UK maybe)
World War I ends in a German victory, thus leading the Germans to economically cripple a great deal of Europe for their own benefit, but leaving the Soviet Union intact.
The Second World War results in a Soviet-US-UK victory, but without the apocalyptic nature of OTL WWII leaves Germany in a position to be a third power in rivalry with the United States and the Soviet Union.
Can't see the Soviets outright _regaining_ the Ukraine, etc. without an actual war, so presumably at some point the Germans scream and leap at the Soviets, leading to the US and UK piling on: presumeably the UK has some sort of alliance with the Soviets for lack of anything better on the continent.
The USSR, without the resources of the Ukraine, will be resource and food-poorer, and less populous: this can be compensated for with superior military organization and leadership, probably want Someone Else Than Stalin in charge. (A more "moderate", less blood-soaked USSR would also make a more tolerable ally for the UK).
I think I’m going to organize a list of all possible three-way (or more sided) Cold Wars based on a POD in or around WWII. I’d really, really, really appreciate any evaluation of these possibilities, as well as any suggestions for other wars:
1. NATO vs. Warsaw Pact vs. Eastern Pact (China)
This is the one I was discussing in the beginning. Basically U.S. against Russia against a more potent and imperialistic China. However, I don’t know if the Chinese would do much more other than meddle more in Asia, possibly intervening in the Vietnam War, Cambodia, etc.
2. NATO vs. Warsaw Pact vs. Nonaligned Movement
I found this discussion about the Bandung Pact. Here, China fully joins the nonaligned movement, which becomes an actual power bloc rather than a movement. The only problem here is that the non-aligned movement had so many minor powers that were so different from each other- Red China, India, Indonesia, Yugoslavia, Egypt, etc.- that the organization seems to have as likely a chance to fall apart as did the Chinese Eastern Pact.
However, if the NAM does find a way to bridge their differences and form a strong military bond besides political and economic ones, it would be a truly powerful global bloc. I think unlike NATO or the Warsaw Pact, this bloc would have no desires to spread its influence, but to rather stay defensive and vigilant. It would have much of the world (and Third World), and seem awfully imposing to both Moscow and Washington. A war between itself and the USSR would be as crazy and dramatic as the time in For All Time when Yugoslavia and several of the east European satellites tried to secede from the Soviets, combined with the nuclear confrontation near the end.
3. Allies vs. Axis vs. Comintern
I’m going to start another thread for this when I get a chance. I’m writing a TL based on Turtledove’s “Ready for the Fatherland” short story.
4. Allies vs. Comintern vs. Japan
I found this ATL online, and I’m going to start a thread about it. It’s very well-written. Basically, Japan gets nuclear weapons in World War II, survives whilst Germany falls, and gets into a conflict where Mao Zedong is killed and Stalin creates a Russo-Chinese Federation.
Interesting, but I’m kind of leery of Cold Wars with Japan as a side. Sure, in this case they’re very powerful, but unlike OTL Cold War, Japan doesn’t seem to be very interested outside Asia. The Japanese militarists were fanatics, but they didn’t have much of an ideology to export besides pan-Asianism. Though they would have nukes ready, they don’t seem to be as defiant as other Cold War sides- sure the militarists were suicidally ready to fight, but I don’t think they’re willing to fight a nuclear war just for Asia.
I think in any Cold War involving a Greater Japanese Empire or Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere, it’s always more regional and conventional, and more relaxed than if, say, the Allies vs. Comintern vs. Nazis fight.
5. Allies vs. Nazis vs. Japan
I got the idea for this one from an Alternate History Travel Guide entry where the U.S. becomes a technocracy, so I’m not too sure of its plausibility. Basically, the Axis wins the war because the U.S. remains isolationist, divide up Russia between them, and a three-sided Cold War emerges.
Canada was incorporated into the Technate in 1942, following the collapse of the British Empire during the Second World War. Canadian Technocrats convinced parliament that the choice was one of economic symbiosis in the Technate or total domination by a victorious Third Reich. The Combined Forces of the Technate moved into the former colonies of the Caribbean in order to integrate them into the "Total Economic Unit (TEU)," and to prevent Hitler from using them as bases. Later, Mexico and the Central American countries would be included in the "Outer Economic Sphere," but were incorporated in the TEU in 1961.
A three-way Cold War broke out in the 1950s between the Technate, the Third Reich, and the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere. The Technate's invention of the Atomic Bomb in 1955 gave them the edge, an advantage they tried to maintain through technology and innovative military doctrine. The Third Reich attempted to maintain an armed posture capable of rapid, crippling attack, and Japan's GEACPS had sheer manpower with which to dominate. Efforts were made by the three superpowers to win control of Siberia (which ended up under Japanese control), Africa (Dominated by Germany since 1949), and Australia (neutral by the mutual agreement of the Technate and Japan). A Third World War almost broke out in 1966 when Germany and Japan attempted to send forces to Brazil, Argentina, and Chile. Land, Sea, and Air Forces of the Technate managed to thwart this rare show of Axis Cooperation just short of all-out war.
I doubt this one very much. First of all, I don’t think Japan would be able to take over much of Russia, and so would be left with a sphere of influence much smaller than the Nazis’. Second, I highly, highly doubt that Japan could remain in control over the masses of Asia for too long. Third, I doubt that the U.S. would stay isolationist while Europe, Asia, and Africa falls to the Axis.
Does anyone think this TL could work with a regular United States instead of the weird technocratic one?
Note: Allies basically means NATO, and Warsaw Pact means Comintern or USSR.
So… please comment on any of these Cold War scenarios, and include the number. Please give any suggestions on them or any other possible Cold Wars.
This debacle showed the Allies that they had obviously met their
match and a ceasefire was drawn up in the Hawaii Conference of 1946,
the other factors being the developing distrust between the Socialist
nations now led by Stalin alone since Mao Tse Tsung died in the Korean
debacle, leading to the three-sided Cold War that lasted until the 60s.
The Philippines, or rather the current Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao
Protectorates, was probably one of the most influential factors in the
end of the Cold War situation and healing the rift between the Co-
Prosperity Sphere and the Western Democratic nations, but that comes