The moscow Meteor

[flamelord]

In the OT: on june 30, 1908 a meteor landed in tunguska siberia. But if it had been delayed by 2 hours then it would have landed in moscow.

In this thread the meteor that was supposed to land in tunguska lands in moscow, vaporizing and destroying all of the city. How is history changed?

 

[PMN1]

Ahh Tunguska.....



It was caused by a Go’auld Ha’tak blowing up just above the planet, it had been hit by an Ancient ‘puddle-jumper’ equipped with a time travel device and being flown by General Jack O’Neil, the malfunction of the time travel device then put the puddle-jumper at Roswell.
​

 

[Astronomer]

We must remember that at the time, Saint Petersburg was the capital of Russia, not Moscow, so the symbolisc loss would be nowhere near as severe.

But I think the decimation of 2000 sq. km of Russian homeland would, besides killing millions of people, plunge Russia into a social and economic crisis from which it might never recover. In any event, there would be no Soviet superpower, which would butterfly away the entire latter half of the 20th century.

 

[Astronomer]

But I might also add that, with the Earth orbiting the sun at about 100 000 km/h, 2 hours later would place the Earth 200 000 km from its intersection with the object, thus causing them to miss by a considerable distance.
So really, there is no way that the Tunguska bolide could have impacted at any other location than where it did: eastern Siberia.

 

[flamelord]

This is ALTERNATE HISTORY, dude. So we are assuming that it hits Moscow not tunguska.

I know for a fact that the Romminov family was in Moscow at the time so they would have been wiped out and Stalin may have rose to power quicker.

 

[Susano]

This is ALTERNATE HISTORY, dude. So we are assuming that it hits Moscow not tunguska.

I know for a fact that the Romminov family was in Moscow at the time so they would have been wiped out and Stalin may have rose to power quicker.

That might be, but what about the Romanov family?
And Stalin? Good Lord, hav eyou ever heard about the butterfly effect?

 

[Astronomer]

Physics makes this scenario ASB, but I doubt the communists would come to power in the impact's aftermath. With its heart and vital organs ripped out, the Russian state would likely not survive, and we would see it fragment into breakaway countries, while remaining a general no-go-zone in the center.

 

[Atreus]

This is ALTERNATE HISTORY, dude. So we are assuming that it hits Moscow not tunguska.

His point is that the scientific premise of this is flawed. We can debate this, he is just saying that the OP is a flawed scenario.

I know for a fact that the Romminov family was in Moscow at the time so they would have been wiped out and Stalin may have rose to power quicker.

first, it's spelled Romanov. Second, I am fairly sure they were not i Moscow at the time. Unfortunatly, I cannot find my sources; but I think it is more reasonable to assume that they are in St. Petersburg, or on a yacht, or in a dacha on the Black Sea, or in any number of equally probable places, then it is to assume that they are in Moscow at this given time. Do you have any sources to back up your claim? Third, the entire line of succession is not going to be gone. Not everybody is going to die, even if Nicholas, Alexi, Grand Duke Michael, and others perish. Fourth, why is Stalin relavent? He is, while not a nobody, deffinatly not a major force to be reckoned with in Russia, or even the Communist party. At this point in time, even Lenin is a fairly minor figure in the socialist movement. In 1907, he was robbing banks, and in April 1908 he was arrested by the Okhrana, and thus removed from play. Russia will be devastated by this event, Stalin is almost certainly butterflied out of existence.

 

[Broz]

Staljin is not necesarilly out of the game, in the post apocaliptic times ahead a man like him could become an important head of organised crime, warlord, or local despot, he might, for instance, be an important member of some armed secesion movement, probbably in Gruzia

then again any number of people especially bank robbers could take his place


arguably the cosacs would be an important force, aquering most political power in what remains of russia
the orthodox church would have a field day, probbably becoming even more powerfull and important


another thing that would no doubt develop is a diferent aproach to astronomy, as the treath of meteorite strikes would be ingraved in the minds of entire generations all around the world

 

[Qazaq2007]

His point is that the scientific premise of this is flawed. We can debate this, he is just saying that the OP is a flawed scenario.



first, it's spelled Romanov. Second, I am fairly sure they were not i Moscow at the time. Unfortunatly, I cannot find my sources; but I think it is more reasonable to assume that they are in St. Petersburg, or on a yacht, or in a dacha on the Black Sea, or in any number of equally probable places, then it is to assume that they are in Moscow at this given time. Do you have any sources to back up your claim? Third, the entire line of succession is not going to be gone. Not everybody is going to die, even if Nicholas, Alexi, Grand Duke Michael, and others perish. Fourth, why is Stalin relavent? He is, while not a nobody, deffinatly not a major force to be reckoned with in Russia, or even the Communist party. At this point in time, even Lenin is a fairly minor figure in the socialist movement. In 1907, he was robbing banks, and in April 1908 he was arrested by the Okhrana, and thus removed from play. Russia will be devastated by this event, Stalin is almost certainly butterflied out of existence.

I don't agree w/ the idea that Stalin would be butterflied out of existance, but the idea of him becoming the leader of Russia/Soviet Union could be butterflied away as well as the emergence of a soviet state could be butterflied away. Stalin probably would just lead a totally different life, and possibly remain a nobody.

 

[Qazaq2007]

This is ALTERNATE HISTORY, dude. So we are assuming that it hits Moscow not tunguska.

I know for a fact that the Romminov family was in Moscow at the time so they would have been wiped out and Stalin may have rose to power quicker.

Astronomer is correct in what he says. I study astronomy myself, so I do know he is right about that. BTW, Stalin was a member of the Russian Social Democratic Worker's Party as a revolutionary, living in Tiflis (T'bilisi), in what is now Georgia, in 1908, holding down a job as a weatherman in the Tiflis Meterological Institute. While Stalin was a member of the RSDWP, he went by the name of Koba.

 

[fhaessig]

Physics makes this scenario ASB, .

Not at all. This just requires a PoD during the early years of the solar system formation. A quantum jump in matter/energy distribution at that time and the meteor ( or whatever ) which intersected earth orbit at tunguska can be on a slightly different trajectory, which will intersect earth orbit at another point in space/time.


If you want a slightly later PoD ( but still WAY earlier than 1900 ) you could have either a collision with some extremely small other meteor, a pass near a bigger one or even some more or less solar activity. Either of these can change the orbit of the tunguska meteor.

Solar system orbital mecaniscs are not deterministic on a very large time scale. Or if they are, we still don't know all about it. For that matter, we still don't understand all about the fine scale mecanics on a shorter timeframe. Neither Newton nor Einsten can explain everything which is observed, neither, as far as I know, does hyperstrings ( sp? ) theory, and we certainly don't understand all the implications of that one.

 

[Astronomer]

This just requires a PoD during the early years of the solar system formation.

With such a POD, just about any desired outcome could be attained. Especially when one considers quantum theory, which more or less allows anything imaginable to occur.

I suppose, if we searched the multiverse long enough, we would eventually find a universe in which a comet struck Moscow on June 30, 1908.

 

[Bavarian Raven]

um, looking a little further ahead, how do u guys think the 1st and 2nd world wars will play out?

 

[fhaessig]

With such a POD, just about any desired outcome could be attained.

As long as it still follows the laws of physics ( if you want others, you have to go way earlier in time ) as well as some others ( e.g. causality ), yes.

It's not the earlier way to deviate the tunguska event object ( along with quite a few others ) but it's the easiest, and, IMO, all the others require a very long timeframe ( as in, measured in tens of thousands of years, if not more ).

It still isn't ASB - quite - ( or at least not as ASB as translating a country in time ).

However, I certainly do not see any non-ASB post-1900 way to deviate the object so as to cause the event in any other time and place than the one in which it occured OTL. Butterfly effects can cover a lot, but not this, IMO.

 

[Zyzzyva]

As long as it still follows the laws of physics ( if you want others, you have to go way earlier in time ) as well as some others ( e.g. causality ), yes.

It's not the earlier way to deviate the tunguska event object ( along with quite a few others ) but it's the easiest, and, IMO, all the others require a very long timeframe ( as in, measured in tens of thousands of years, if not more ).

It still isn't ASB - quite - ( or at least not as ASB as translating a country in time ).

However, I certainly do not see any non-ASB post-1900 way to deviate the object so as to cause the event in any other time and place than the one in which it occured OTL. Butterfly effects can cover a lot, but not this, IMO.

Why not? Planetary mechanics is a chaotic affair, in the mathematical sense of the word. I see nothing particularely unlikely about making the Tunguska comet hit Moscow. And it does go in post-1900, because "history" per se doesn't diverge before 1908.

 

[fhaessig]

Why not? Planetary mechanics is a chaotic affair, in the mathematical sense of the word.

Not in a short timeframe, it isn't. As a first approximation, Newton still holds; As a second, Einstein does. It's only when you go beyond that you have some strange ( as of now ) effects. These effects do not affect massive objects in a significant way in the frame of a few years ( or even millenia ).

If that was not the case, we couldn't send planetary probes on missions lasting tens of years.

ObWi : what if planetary movement in the solar system were really chaotic. ( except for Earth, because we still want life to evolve ). I can see quite some interesting effects on astrology and on the development of science and religions. ( and yes, this is pure ASB )

 

[fhaessig]

um, looking a little further ahead, how do u guys think the 1st and 2nd world wars will play out?

Unrecognisable.

First effect, as a minimum, is to delay russian industrialisation by a huge time. Then the German general staff won't feel that 1914 is the last window of opportunity to take dosn the Bear and the blank check to Austria won't be issued. SImilarly, the Russians will know they're not ready, as they are still concentrating in healing the wounds and not back Serbia. For that matter, the Balkan wars won't play as OTL, so Serbia may not even exist.

 

[Jomazi]

Perhaps it would be more effectfull to wipe out st. petersburg. Russia would be in deep s-t with hundreds of thousands dead in the blast, millions in the ensuing famine, probably leading to a civil war.

If WW1 starts as in OTL, I can't imagine Russia being involved.

 

[Zyzzyva]

Not in a short timeframe, it isn't. As a first approximation, Newton still holds; As a second, Einstein does. It's only when you go beyond that you have some strange ( as of now ) effects. These effects do not affect massive objects in a significant way in the frame of a few years ( or even millenia ).

If that was not the case, we couldn't send planetary probes on missions lasting tens of years.

ObWi : what if planetary movement in the solar system were really chaotic. ( except for Earth, because we still want life to evolve ). I can see quite some interesting effects on astrology and on the development of science and religions. ( and yes, this is pure ASB )

NO! I'm not talking about the weird Voyager acceleration thingy or the little extra precession of Mercury. I'm talking about how multi-body Newtonian dynamics is chaotic: if you model the solar system mathematically, as an entirely Newtonian system, it's still chaotic, in the mathematical sense. Admittedly, over the period of a few hundreds of millennia, but it's chaotic nonetheless.

So it's entirely possible that we could have a history like ours except with a Moscow Tunguska. And, again, it would rightfully go in post-1900, despite its 4.3bya POD.