The More Things Change: A Late 20th Century Russia Timeline

[Kruglyasheo]

Disgruntled bodyguards drag Gorbachev away from the people.​

With Yeltsin's support, in December 1985, Gorbachev was installed as the first secretary of the Moscow gorkom of the CPSU and in a short time gained immense popularity in various strata of society. His style of work differed sharply from the traditional command-and-control apparatus style that Muscovites were accustomed to during the years of the Kirilenko stagnation.
<…>
The new ruler of Moscow exposed the country's economic problems in a confused but convinced way. Of course, everyone knew about problems, but no one had ever spoken about it so directly, especially not the First Secretary of the Moscow City Committee himself. After ten years of senile weakness of the first persons, a smiling man in his prime spoke cheerfully with them using many hand gestures in the southern way. He did not look at the papers, did not limit himself in topics and expressions. The crowd did not consist of pre-selected people, it was one of the busiest intersections in the city – across the road was the main city station.

"Well, what will the people advise their representative in the end?" Gorbachev asked in parting.

"Oh, just be closer to the people!" exclaimed the granny standing in front.

"How can I be even closer!?"

A general burst of laughter.[3]

– Populism. Yesterday, today and tomorrow, 2016
[3]Compilation of several OTL cases.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Vstryaska was a political movement for reformation within the Communist Party of the Soviet Union during the 1980s widely associated with Soviet leader Boris Yeltsin. The literal meaning of vstryaska is "shake-up", referring to the shake-up of the Soviet political and economic system, in an attempt to end the Kirilenko Stagnation. Vstryaska allowed more independent actions from various ministries and introduced many market-like reforms. It was one of the key directions of Yeltsin’s reform course "Vstryaska – Pluralism – Suverenitet".

Boris Yeltsin’s transformations were not gradual like the reforms in China, but the Chinese had time and Yeltsin did not. China in 1979 was like the USSR in 1929. Before its reforms, China was an agrarian country with enormous cheap labor resources, and its economic transformation was accompanied by urbanization. The Soviet Union was already an urbanized nation: since the late 1950s, the urban population exceeded the rural population. The supply of cheap labor had run out. The Chinese approach was not feasible in the face of a colossal financial crisis and budget deficits with an economy that was completely surviving on its oil dependence and could not withstand the external shock of falling commodity prices.

Pluralism was taken to mean increased openness and transparency in government institutions and activities in the Soviet Union. Pluralism reflected a commitment of the Yeltsin administration to allowing Soviet citizens to discuss publicly the problems of their system and potential solutions. Yeltsin encouraged popular scrutiny and criticism of leaders, as well as a certain level of exposure by the mass media.

"Though he blustered if the press criticized him, he always came down on the democratic side," said Ellen Mickiewicz, the director of the DeWitt Wallace Center for Media and Democracy at Duke.* "If bills came to him from a conservative party members wanting to control speech and its dissemination, he vetoed them. His years were among the best for the development of commercial television stations all over Soviet Union."

Although formally censorship had ceased to exist, there was growing pressure on editors to use a healthy dose of self-restraint. Yeltsin often appealed to Pluralism when promoting policies aimed at reducing corruption at the top of the Communist Party and the Soviet government, and moderating the abuse of administrative power in the Central Committee.

Suverenitet in Russian means simply sovereignty. On 6 January 1987, Boris Yeltsin addressed regional leaders: "Help yourself, grab as much sovereignty as you can swallow.*" However, when the Baltic states took him at his word, it turned out that only Yeltsin determined how much sovereignty was enough.

– Vstryaska – Pluralism – Suverenitet, 1993
**OTL quotes

 

[Tjakari]

I always love a late Soviet Union timeline.

I suppose the time is coming for some political hypocrisy, though. Self-rule, autonomy, open dialogue for all, but if you're talking about leaving and act as if you've already left, that's bound to cause problems.

You're free to stay, but not free to go.

 

[Kruglyasheo]

Telman Gdlyan, left, and Nikolai Ivanov​

Boris Yeltsin's anti-corruption policies have always been somewhat inconsistent. Having come to power, Yeltsin began to denounce the excessive greed of the Party and Soviet leaders, using it against his opponents. In April 1987, speaking to the miners in Novokuznetsk, Yeltsin said that the fight against bribes was intensifying and that three deputy ministers had already been arrested red-handed on this occasion. However, these arrests actually never happened.[4]

Another example was the “Cotton Mafia” case. Even by the standards of the era, the web of illegal activity that developed in the Uzbek SSR was astonishing. Sharaf Rashidov was the man largely held as responsible for bringing about the massive amount of corrupt activity in Uzbekistan by utilizing cotton, Uzbekistan’s most important export, to build his network. The investigation conducted by Telman Gdlyan and Nikolai Ivanov led to the mass arrest of the top of the Uzbek party elite. In May of 1989, Gdlyan and Ivanov made several accusations against prominent Moscow politicians following an outlining of the cases and convictions, beginning the process of “overstepping their reach.” The inability of the prosecution to investigate Moscow shows a definitive disparity in how republics in the Soviet Union were treated. After their trial on ethnical missteps ended with the charges being dropped, Gdlyan and Ivanov proclaimed that the guilty Uzbeks should be set free, as the investigation would not punish all of those responsible.*

– Corruption and institutions in the Soviet Union, 1991
[4] From OTL 1993.
*OTL
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Many economists proposed reducing ministerial controls on the economy but Ryzhkov and other government figures were skeptical. However, in May Yeltsin finished his report on economic reform. That month, a plenum accepted his recommendations and in June the Supreme Soviet of the USSR approved the State Privatization Program for 1987, which determined the possible methods of privatization for enterprises depending on their size.

According to the program, small enterprises were to be sold at auctions or could be directly sold to individuals working at these enterprises (“small” privatization). Large enterprises and part of medium-sized ones had to be transformed into open joint stock companies, and then go through the sale of shares. At the same time, at least 29% of the authorized capital had to be sold through public auctions for privatization checks, commonly called vouchers. Enterprises of wholesale and retail trade, public catering, construction, production and processing of agricultural products, food and light industries were subject to mandatory privatization. However, in a number of particularly important industries (subsurface resources, forest fund, shelf, pipelines, public roads, television stations, etc.), privatization was prohibited. By November 1, 1989, 60-70% of trade, public catering and consumer services enterprises were privatized.

The concept of free voucher privatization was proposed by Vitaly Naishul in 1987.[5] From October 1, 1987, privatization checks (vouchers) began to be issued to the population. Checks were distributed through branches of the State Labor Savings Bank; upon receipt, it was necessary to pay 25 rubles; the nominal value of the voucher was five hundred times higher and corresponded to the value of fixed assets of enterprises per capita in January 1987 prices. Vouchers were anonymized and could be freely sold and bought, both directly between citizens and through specially created voucher investment funds. The first 18 auctions were held in December 1987.

Critics of voucher privatization considered it dishonest and unfair since in their opinion it led to an undeservedly quick enrichment of a narrow group of people. For example, the adopted procedure for privatization gave serious advantages to the heads of enterprises. Using administrative pressure, nomenclature directors were able to achieve the desired voting results at shareholder meetings, as well as buy back shares from enterprise employees at reduced prices.

– Kremlin Capitalism: Privatizing the Soviet Economy, 1997
[5] OTL, although then this proposal was rejected.​

 

[Tjakari]

Well that's just gross.

 

[Kruglyasheo]

Boris Yeltsin played by Stellan Skarsgård in the Sky/HBO miniseries Desnogorsk​

…Despite the changes brought about by Vstryaska and Pluralism, the catastrophe at Desnogorsk remained a classic Soviet cover-up. The number of people radically affected by the explosion was kept secret and the result was far greater mortality and suffering. Could the Soviet government immediately reveal the truth and admit its mistakes in order to save more lives? Perhaps if someone else ruled the Soviet Union, we would not have to ask ourselves today what is the cost of lies? However, the country was run by Boris Yeltsin, the man who helped cover up the 1979 Sverdlovsk anthrax leak, also known as "biological Desnogorsk.”*

It is noteworthy that the design flaws of the RBMK reactor plant were known even before the accident at the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant (Desnogorsk, Smolensk region). They were found during incidents at the Leningrad NPP in 1975 and then again at the Ignalina NPP in 1983. However, these stations were under the supervision of the Ministry of Medium Machine Building, while similar in design NPPs of Smolensk, Kursk and Chernobyl were in the area of responsibility of the Ministry of Energy and Electrification.

About 61,000 people were evacuated from the exclusion zone, primarily from Roslavl. Some 65% of fallout landed in Belarus. Under the Soviet system, it was quite natural that neither the government of the Soviet Union nor the local authorities were prepared to take legal responsibility for the ecological, social, and other problems caused by Desnogorsk. However, the scale of the accident and the changes that had taken place in the society by that time made it impossible to conceal the fact of the accident altogether; people in the affected territories repeatedly demanded the introduction of legislation to cover their health problems, ecological damage, and compensation for material losses arising from the accident.

– The Legacy of Desnogorsk, 2010
*OTL “biological Chernobyl”
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
“As a matter of fact, we are just beginning a systematic and objective analysis of our history. But it is already clear that it is much more complex and ambiguous than previously thought. How do we see the relationship between the USSR and Poland, Bulgaria or any other country? Our relations can only develop on the basis of equality. I categorically reject accusations that the USSR today claims any special role. The USSR does not seek to become the center of some empire and seeks advantages with other republics. The Soviet Union is well aware of the harmfulness of such a role, we have played this role for too long. And what did it give us? Did we become rich and happy from this? You well know how matters stand. History has taught us that a nation that dominates others cannot be happy” Yeltsin's words were loudly echoed in the Supreme Soviet in 1988. Yeltsin's main idea was that the USSR assumed excessively large imperial obligations and de facto supported the Warsaw Pact countries without receiving anything in return.[6]

In 1989, popular civil and political public discontent toppled the Communist governments of the Warsaw Treaty countries. Though Poland's new Solidarity government initially assured the Soviets that it would remain in the renewed Warsaw Pact Organization – the so-called Collective Security Pact Organization, this broke the brackets of Eastern Europe, which could no longer be held together militarily by the Warsaw Pact.

– What was the Warsaw Pact?, 2006
[6] Based on Yeltsin's arguments about the independence of the RSFSR.​

 

[historybuff]

As an American who loves to studay Soviet and Russian politics, consider me interested. Care for ideas for later Soviet leaders? If so, have some ideas.
Yuri Luzhkov, Georgy Arbatov, Anatoly Sobchak.

 

[Kruglyasheo]

Yeltsin interrupts Mikhail Gorbachev's speech
​

- On Saturday, I talked with fellow countrymen from Stavropol, how are they? I knew that the rains had passed, there was snow, cool May - this is all that is needed for the harvest in Stavropol. But everything can, it turns out, go to waste. The situation is catastrophic! As of January 1, the collective farms and state farms of this region had 20 million in their accounts or even more. Now, with the exception of a few, they can't buy equipment, fertilizers, or anything. Why is this so, can't the village charge any price for food, since people need something to eat? Yes, but the food and processing industry no longer takes milk and meat at the prices that the collective farms request. Why? Because the buyer can no longer withstand these prices. This is what happened as a result of the complete "liberalization" of prices in industry. What should the village do? They can only wind down production, otherwise they will lose money.[1]

In the spring of 1988, Gorbachev spoke rather sharply at the Plenum of the Central Committee of the CPSU, criticizing the influence of vstryaska on the situation in agriculture, and asked to be relieved of his duties as a candidate for membership in the Politburo. After that, he was subjected to counter criticism, including from those who previously supported him. In the end, he was forced to repent and admit his mistakes, but he was still dismissed not only from the post of a candidate for membership in the Politburo, but also from the post of first secretary of the Moscow City Committee. However, Gorbachev was not sent as an ambassador to some distant African country, although there were such proposals.

What exactly Mikhail Gorbachev said remained unknown to the general public. The lack of a transcript only fueled interest in the speech. Samizdat versions of it appeared, in which Gorbachev was credited with much more critical statements than he actually uttered. On leaflets circulated in the country, Gorbachev, for example, advocated the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. He "spoke" about the hard life of the workers: "It is difficult for me to explain to a factory worker why there are caviar and other delicacies on your tables, comrades, for which ordinary citizens have no money." He “gave” a harsh rebuff to Yeltsin, who interrupted him: “No, comrade Yeltsin, stop yelling at me and lecturing me, don't you dare. I'm not a little boy." The speech became folklore: from source to source it was rewritten, edited, lengthened, the agenda, popular among the people at the moment, was added to it.

– Stavropol upstart, 2000
[1] His OTL criticism of Yeltsin.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The first manifestation of ethnic tension during the Vstryaska period was the events in Yakutia. In March-April 1986, clashes took place in Yakutsk between groups of young people of Russian nationality and Yakut students of the Yakutsk State University. In July 1987, demonstrations of the Crimean Tatars took place in Moscow demanding the restoration of Crimea's autonomy. The Karabakh conflict that flared up in 1988 was the most acute. Mutual ethnic cleansing took place, the exodus of Armenians from Azerbaijan and Azerbaijanis with Muslim Kurds from Armenia began. In 1989, the Supreme Soviet of the Armenian SSR announced the annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh. By the end of May 1989, relations between Uzbeks and Meskhetian Turks worsened in the Fergana region of the Uzbek SSR. In June of the same year, pogroms and murders of Meskhetian Turks, known as "Fergana pogroms", were recorded there, which caused the mass evacuation of Meskhetian Turks from the republic. At the same time, interethnic clashes broke out in Novy Uzen between Kazakhs and people from the Caucasus, for the suppression of which armored personnel carriers, tanks, helicopter gunships and other military equipment were involved. In July 1989, clashes between Georgians and Abkhazians took place in Sukhumi.

The consequences of economic liberalization were also twofold. On the one hand, by the end of 1989, the commodity deficit was overcome, market mechanisms were launched in the Soviet economy. On the other hand, liberalization led to an incredibly sharp rise in prices, an increase in non-payments, as well as to the depreciation of income and savings of the population, unemployment, irregular payments, strikes and the closure of uncompetitive industries. The party remained a conservative force, unable to reform itself and participate in reforming the country. In fact, in the conditions of a monopolized economy, price liberalization just led to a change in price-controlling bodies: instead of the state, the heads of monopoly structures themselves began to deal with this. At any moment, Yeltsin could be overthrown just as he overthrew Kirilenko.

Yeltsin's plans were radical, he wanted to get rid of party directors of enterprises by holding loans-for-shares auctions, to deprive the Politburo of the opportunity to remove him from office, to combine the posts of head of state and Supreme Commander-in-Chief. With the creation of the post of directly elected President of the USSR, all this could be done.

– Preconditions for amendments to the USSR Constitution, 2002​

 

[historybuff]

Here's hoping that A: Gorbachev doesn't become a complete Yeltsin expy, and B: Some form of the OTL New Union Treaty can come into use the proper way, if you have such things planned out.

 

[GeorgeUK]

I think Gorbachev post-Yeltsin might do a better job of building bridges with the West.

 

[Kruglyasheo]

Presidential election results map
​

The presidential election in the Soviet Union took place on March 26, 1989, concurrently with the Congress of People's Deputies elections. This was the first presidential election in the country's history.

Yeltsin becomes the first candidate for the post of president of the USSR; he chooses rather liberal Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Kazakh SSR* Nursultan Nazarbayev as his vice presidential running mate.
Yeltsin hoped for "party discipline" and that he would not have competition from the conservative part of the CPSU, but he got it from the very leader of the conservatives Grigory Romanov, who was appointed Secretary of the Defense Industry by Yeltsin himself in 1985.[2] Romanov chose Secretary Gennady Yanayev as his running mate.
Academician Andrei Sakharov became a candidate from the democratic forces that condemned the one-sidedness and authoritarianism of Yeltsin's reforms. Telman Gdlyan became his vice presidential running mate. Gdlyan rose to prominence as an anti-corruption fighter who investigated the “Cotton Mafia” case. In addition, he was an ethnic Armenian born in the Georgian USSR.
Another well-known opponent of Yeltsin, Mikhail Gorbachev, did not participate in these elections. Some believed that Gorbachev did not want to participate in the elections if there was a chance of losing. Others suggested that, being a longtime member of the nomenklatura, he was generally skeptical of direct democracy.[3]

The official results were as follows:
Boris Yeltsin: 50,2%
Andrei Sakharov: 28,1%
Grigory Romanov: 18,8%
Against all: 1,5%
Invalid/blank votes: 1,4%
Turnout: 76,6%

In the Baltics, almost exclusively Russian-speaking people voted, and the Balts themselves boycotted the elections. In fact, elections did not take place in many areas.
There have been a number of allegations issues claiming that there were great instances of fraud. These include a number of allegations which assert that Yeltsin did not get 50 percent of the vote and that there should have been a second round between him and Sakharov.
Sakharov's imminent death in December of the same year sparked many conspiracy theories that in fact it was a murder with the aim of destroying the unity of the democrats. But regardless of the reasons, in fact, Sakharov's death led to the opposite. After all, the new leader of the opposition was Gorbachev, who sought to unite both camps of Yeltsin’s opponents under the banner of “social democracy”.[4] Gorbachev was elected to the Congress of People's Deputies of Russia representing Stavropol with 74% of the vote. On 29 May 1990, he was elected chairman of the Supreme Soviet of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, defeating Yeltsin's preferred candidate, a Sverdlovsker, who recently became a Yekaterinburger, Nikolai Ryzhkov.

– Yeltsin's Reforms: The Soviet Elections of 1989, 1990, 1991
*Since 1984.
[2] OTL he took up this position in 1983.
[3] These are some of the OTL explanations why Gorbachev did not hold direct elections for the President of the USSR.
[4] Or at least that's what he wanted in the 1996 election.​

 

[NoThymeToulouse]

Very interesting.

 

[historybuff]

Curious if Marshal Sokolov is still Soviet Defense Minister here or not at this point. I know he was fired around 1986.

 

[Kruglyasheo]

Miners on Red Square​

On May 1, 1991, in the mining town of Anzhero-Sudzhensk in Kuzbass, several miners went on a hunger strike demanding the payment of long-term wage arrears. The authorities did not attach any importance to this - such actions were then widespread. A few days later, dozens of miners were already on hunger strike. Since May 10, in many cities of Kuzbass, there were no longer hunger strikes, but miners' rallies. On May 14, Kuzbass miners blocked traffic on the Kuzbass railways.

In the summer of 1991, a wave of an open strike movement of many thousands arose in the USSR. In July 1991, mass strikes began in the mining regions - the Pechora coal basin (Komi ASSR), Kuzbass (RSFSR), Donbass (Ukrainian SSR), Karaganda basin (KazSSR). Having stopped working, leaving the necessary number of workers to preserve the mines, the workers took to the streets and squares of cities. Order was maintained by the forces of the strikers, and strike committees were formed. Thousands of miners' rallies continued for many hours. The miners' picket near the Kremlin in Moscow lasted 116 days. It was remembered for the clatter of helmets and the demand for the resignation of the then President Boris Yeltsin.[5]

– From Solidarność to Rails wars, 2000​

[5] Mix from the 1989 and 1998 miners' strikes. The photo is actually from 98.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Armenian War, also known as the Armenian Campaign, was a rebellion by the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast and Armenian SSR against the Soviet Union, fought from December 1989 to August 1992. The war was preceded by Soviet Intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh, in which the USSR tried to overthrow its government. After the initial campaign of 1989–1990, culminating in the devastating Battle of Yerevan, Soviet forces attempted to seize control of the mountainous area of Armenia but were set back by Armenian guerrilla warfare and raids on the flatlands despite Soviet overwhelming advantages in firepower, manpower, weaponry, artillery, combat vehicles, airstrikes and air support. The resulting widespread demoralization of soviet forces and the almost universal opposition of the public to the conflict led Boris Yeltsin's government to declare a ceasefire with the Armenians and sign a peace treaty of 1992. USSR Defense Minister Sergei Sokolov was dismissed by presidential decree for refusing to reform the army, for failures in restoring order in Armenia and "for a policy pursued in the selfish interests of the highest generals."[6]

– Moscow loses control, 1992
[6] Based on First Chechen War and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, obviously.​

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

In a three-way general election matchup, Ross Perot has moved to a clear lead over both President Bush and Gov. Bill Clinton in the latest Gallup Poll. In the telephone poll of 815 registered voters nationwide, conducted June 4 to 8, Mr. Perot was supported by 39 percent, Mr. Bush by 31 percent, and Mr. Clinton by 25 percent. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

In a previous Gallup matchup in late May, Mr. Bush and Mr. Perot were tied at 35 percent each, while Mr. Clinton was supported by 25 percent. No previous independent or third party candidate has ever placed second, much less first, in nearly six decades of Gallup's nationwide polling for President.

Only 14% of Americans, according to a June 12-14 Gallup Poll, are satisfied with the way things are going in the country today. Gallup began asking this satisfaction question in February 1979, and by July of that year recorded what still stands as the all-time low on the measure, 12%, in the midst of worries about the economy and skyrocketing gas prices. The second-lowest measure of 14% came in June this year, during another time of perceived economic recession.*​

– THE 1992 CAMPAIGN: On the Trail; POLL GIVES PEROT A CLEAR LEAD, 1992
*OTL

 

[El_Fodedor]

Did Yeltsin just gave away Armenia?

If yes, the union is doomed. Armenians are one of the smaller ethnic groups, if they can get away with independence then everyone can.

 

[historybuff]

So, Sokolov takes the place of Grachev here, as the defense minister who many hold responseble for military blunders.

 

[dsp19]

Watched...My question is if Yeltsin becomes Soviet premier in 1985, wouldn't the USSR collapse more quickly than OTL? IRL Yeltsin was the radical that led the popular discontent against the old system, while Gorbachev wanted the Soviet Union to exist with greater freedom of speech and a limited market economy. My recollection is that Yeltsin wanted to tear the Communist system down completely, replace it with a full market economy and wide open democracy, while Gorbachev intended glasnost and perestroika to be reforms within the Soviet system.

Yeltsin was completely in over his head as Russian president IRL. His presidency had an autocoup that kept him in power in 1993, plus a brutal war in Chechnya, life expectancy collapse due to alcoholism, and oligarchs running the show with the rapid whiplash towards a full free market system with practically no regulation. Also, I think if Nagorno-Karabakh occurs under Yeltsin as a Soviet premier it's far bloodier than IRL. I think Yeltsin as Soviet premier would have horrifying results worse than what happened with Gorbachev IRL as the USSR slowly dissolved. It would be a rapid crash

 

[Leonidas]

I don’t know much about the nuances of late Soviet politics, but this is a very interesting timeline!

 

[Kruglyasheo]

Clockwise from the top:
The bombing of the "Presidential Palace" in Riga - Transnistrian militias - Fighting near Kurgan-Tyube - Anti-Yeltsin protests in Moscow - Ruined Yerevan - Tanks in occupied Tbilisi
​

In 1992, the Soviet Union was in a severe economic and political crisis. After the initial turmoil and euphoria of early marketizations, Soviet economy sank into deep depression due to botched reform efforts and low commodity prices globally. According to Soviet statistics, the economic decline was far more severe than the Great Depression was in the United States in terms of gross domestic product. Estimates by the World Bank based on both macroeconomic data and surveys of household incomes indicate that by mid-1992 between 39% and 49% of the population was living in poverty. The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan did not help to improve the situation because the USSR was quickly submerged in the quagmire of the wars in Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Tajikistan; there were continuing conflicts in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia; the Supreme Soviet of the Russian SFSR adopted laws which contradicted Soviet laws; etc.

Under these conditions, President of the RSFSR Mikhail Gorbachev announced the idea of the New Union Treaty:
Considering my considerations, I took into account both the public reaction inside and outside the country. <...> The New Union treaty should clearly state the understanding of the Commonwealth as a multinational entity with absolute equality not only of the states themselves, but also of the nationalities living in them, of all religions, traditions and customs. Therefore, the most appropriate name for the Commonwealth seems to me: "The Commonwealth of European and Asian States" (CEAS). The creation of a socially oriented market economy, unhindered development and protection of all forms of ownership are of decisive importance for the stability of the Commonwealth.[7]

– Conflicts, cleavages, and changes in Northern Eurasia, 1999
[7] OTL Gorbachev's ideas in December 1991.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
...All day long it seemed to everyone that this speech would simply turn into a small embarrassment and would soon be forgotten. Boris Yeltsin left for Zavidovo, but there the President of the USSR continued to repeat his phrase, said to Nazarbayev after Gorbachev's speech: "This can be seen as an attempt to liquidate our statehood."

In Zavidovo, the head of the KGB discussed with Yeltsin that Gorbachev's decision was an excellent reason to get rid of him. If the government of the RSFSR violates the law, then it must be dispersed. And holding the presidential election scheduled for next year is impossible at all, it should be postponed. Not canceled, but postponed for several years. Two or three years will be enough to bring the reforms to the end and prepare a worthy successor, so that Yeltsin will no longer have to run himself.

The KGB has been repeating for months that the elections should be postponed. And most importantly, never before was Yeltsin so close to agreeing with this idea. Yeltsin liked everything about this decision. He won't have to spend the next year campaigning. He won't have to rely on voters. Finally, Yeltsin always liked to get rid of all old problems at once. “There is no point in hiding it: I had always been inclined toward simple, effective decisions” this is how Yeltsin's thought was expressed in his book 'Midnight Diaries'. “It had always seemed to me that chopping through the Gordian knot was easier than spending years untying it. I came to the conclusion that we couldn't wait for the elections: We had to act now!"[8]​

– 1992 Crisis Day by Day, 2015
[8] Based on Yeltsin's OTL conflict with the Duma before the 1996 elections, but then he was persuaded not to disperse the Duma by force. However, he already did it in 1993.

 

[historybuff]

Oh, boy, Yeltsin considering Kryuchkov's coup attempt.

 

[Kruglyasheo]

Gorbachev using his famous charm on Guards troops​

The KGB immediately issued an arrest list including Russians SFSR President Mikhail Gorbachev, his allies, and the leaders of the umbrella activist group Social Democratic Russia. The Russian SFSR-controlled and independent political radio stations and TV-channels were cut off the air. However, the station later resumed transmitting and became a source of information during the coup, and the BBC World Service and Voice of America were also able to provide continuous coverage.

On August 4, the position of the army was the deciding factor. The military equivocated for several hours about how to respond to Yeltsin's call for action. By noon, the Soviet army encircled the parliament building, and a few hours later army tanks began to shell the White House, punching holes in the front of it. By this time dozens of people had been killed and hundreds had been wounded. The "Black August” saw the deadliest street fighting in Moscow since 1917. The official list of the dead, presented on 1993 by the investigation team of the Prosecutor General's Office includes 77 civilians in the "White House area."

According to Sergey Parkhomenko, a journalist and democracy campaigner who was in the crowd defending the White House, "Those deaths played a crucial role: Both sides were so horrified that it brought a halt to everything." In the union republics, most of the leaders initially took a wait-and-see attitude towards the events in Moscow, but when photographs of the burnt-out facade of the White House were scattered around the world, declared that Yeltsin's actions were unconstitutional. While the events were unfolding in the capital, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania declared the full reinstatement of the independent status of their republics.

– Black August, 2000
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Following the events of August's failed coup, the republics of the USSR had declared their independence. A week after the Ukrainian independence referendum was held, which kept the chances of the Soviet Union staying together low, the Commonwealth of European and Asian States was founded in its place on 2 December 1992, when the leaders of the seven republics (Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan) met and signed the "Agreement Establishing the Commonwealth of European and Asian States", known as the Creation Agreement. Among other things, the Agreement included the creation of a free trade zone. Aggression against one signatory should have been perceived as an aggression against all.

Yeltsin was dismissed as president and later jailed for his crimes against the Soviet state. In 1996, Moscow weekly Novy Vzglyad quoted Yeltsin as admitting that he was drunk when he signed the decree to disperse the Russian government, but saying that inebriation had not affected his judgment. He described the events of 1992 as a burden for the rest of his life.

Yeltsin was released on recognizance not to leave in January 1996. He would eventually become the head of the Department of History and International Relations of the Russian International Academy of Tourism.[1]

– Failed coup, 2005
[1] Mostly based on Yanaev's later life.​