The more "boring" timeline conceivable

Boring... hmm...

During the early summer of 1910 Earth passes through the tail of Halley's Comet and alien microorganisms enter the upper atmosphere. Over the next few weeks, the rapidly multiplying microbes migrate toward the surface. Terrifyingly similar plagues break out at widely space portions of the globe.

First civilization, and then nearly all of humanity, dies in a paroxysm of fear, fire, and violence. Even the shouting is over by 1912.

On what would have been known as January 1st, 2000, a few small bands of humans live as hunter-gatherers in scattered locations across the globe and the planet has been "boring, not exciting, quiet, sleepy" for 88 years of the last century.


Bill
 
On another note, I'm a little unclear on why there would be no space race; if anything, there would be a space race with half a dozen competitors instead of just two. At the very least, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Austria-Hungary and the US would all be in a good enough position to compete with each other over space development, with Japan and the Ottomans also possibly in position depending on how things go.

Space development might even get pushed ahead of OTL; space as the final frontier would have a lot of appeal to a relatively stagnant world, and stability on Earth would mean space funding would be much less constricted by the need to focus on issues at home.

As others have pointed out, just because there will not be open warfare does not mean there will be no competition between nations.
 
By this application of a more "boring" TL, the following items have to remain constant:

* The Democratic Party would have to still be controlled by Dixiecrat leaders from below the Mason-Dixon line...
Very probable.

* American expatriate immigration into Mexico surpasses Mexican migration (1.67% of the population) into the United States, leading to the annexation of Nicaragua and portions of Mexico...
I think that United States could be very rich prosperous and advanced in this ATL.
More that in OTL.

* The abolition of the letters C, X, and Q in the English alphabet...
Why?

* Japan and China never rise as political powers, as part of the "white man's burden"
Also without an "great war in pacific" i think that Japan have a little Empire in Korea,and maybe in some areas of the China.

* Gold standard remains the primary source of international finance...
Very probable.

* Solid constitutional governments for all of Western and Eastern Europe...
For a "boring" and quiet timeline this is indispensable.

* Abortion was to be considered the normal routine of the midwife...
I think that medicine is advanced like in OTL.

* Women would not desire political power...
This is not sure.
Can be a progressive women empowerment,but i don't see nothing comparable with our 60s-70s counterculture in thid ATL

* 50% of the population of the country would still populate the rural areas of the country rather than the cities...
Possible.
Who knows if in USA the model of "Broadocre city" proposed by Frank Lloyd Wright can have a development in this ATL.

* White Anglo Saxon Protestant (WASP) males make up the majority of the population, especially with child and female mortality rates....
Very probable.
 
the tech level in TTL´s 2010 will definitly not lower than early/mid-nineties at most. Pardon me, but the proposed seventies or sixties level are laughable.
We are talking about a timeline without WW-I,WW-II and Cold War,AND about an Europe with Kings,Emperors,Tzar.
Obviously for have a "boring" quiet ATL we have an evolution in politics and costumes.
We have costitutional parlamientary Monarchies,Commonwealths and Federations instead Empires,but the world is a bit more conservative and less innovator that in OTL.
So add this at the lack of conflits and see that a little more slow technological development is very probable.

On another note, I'm a little unclear on why there would be no space race; if anything, there would be a space race with half a dozen competitors instead of just two. At the very least, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Austria-Hungary and the US would all be in a good enough position to compete with each other over space development, with Japan and the Ottomans also possibly in position depending on how things go.
Well is probable that we have some type of "space races",but in XXI century,not in XX.
Without WW-II and Cold War i don't see a real interest for rockets.
Yes,could be a "Sputnik" in 90s,but nothing more.
(Note that also in OTL ,without Cold War, Space Programs go very slow with few funds and little support from taxpayer).
 
This is a very interesting scenario. I was pondering, perhaps with no Holocaust the European powers (and Japan) are more willing to use forceful means to quash native uprising in colonial areas? If the power blocs are balanced and all equally colonial, there might even be little to no incentive for funding nationalists groups in rival colonies.
 
Well is probable that we have some type of "space races",but in XXI century,not in XX.
Without WW-II and Cold War i don't see a real interest for rockets.
Yes,could be a "Sputnik" in 90s,but nothing more.
(Note that also in OTL ,without Cold War, Space Programs go very slow with few funds and little support from taxpayer).
There was research into rocketry before WWII, as other posters have stated, and competition between the Great Powers will easily replicate the boost that the Cold War provided to space development in OTL, and probably exceed it because there will be a lot more players on the field. The Cold War was just a balance of power game with only two players, and a whole lot more small and medium powers caught in the middle.

IMO, a continuation of the 19th century balance of power is an almost ideal situation for continuing rapid development; competition in science, industry, and economics will replace military conflict. The World Wars also arguably hurt research as much as they helped; lots of potential inventors were killed, and wartime often forces nations to give up on new research in favor of mass production of existing technology.
 

Beer

Banned
We are talking about a timeline without WW-I,WW-II and Cold War,AND about an Europe with Kings,Emperors,Tzar.
Obviously for have a "boring" quiet ATL we have an evolution in politics and costumes.
We have costitutional parlamientary Monarchies,Commonwealths and Federations instead Empires,but the world is a bit more conservative and less innovator that in OTL.
So add this at the lack of conflits and see that a little more slow technological development is very probable.
You seem to equate "no wars + conservative political landscape = stunted" which is wrong. An example: The German Empire and France in OTL were rather conservative politically, did not fight major wars between 1871 and 1914, but were still at the absolute forefront of inovation. Many breakthroughs were made in that time by both nations. No external pressure, peace and conservative, but still a full drive for new ideas. One, maybe one and half decades behind OTL is possible, but three or more as some proposed is willful ignorance of comparable facts.


Well is probable that we have some type of "space races",but in XXI century,not in XX.
Without WW-II and Cold War i don't see a real interest for rockets.
Yes,could be a "Sputnik" in 90s,but nothing more.
(Note that also in OTL ,without Cold War, Space Programs go very slow with few funds and little support from taxpayer).
Read my former post, why rockets won´t be more than a handful of years later. About the funds: A world at peace so long has much more money reserves and prestige can be won through technical prowess. In OTL the funds are few since the tax money is needed in areas this TTL "peace world" does not need to allocate large sums to, freeing money for space exploration.
 
As others have suggested an Extinction Level Event, such as a comet/meteor strike followed by a combination of, plague, starvation and war amongst the survivors. By 2001 there is no human race, which would make for a pretty quiet timeline.
 
There was research into rocketry before WWII, as other posters have stated, and competition between the Great Powers will easily replicate the boost that the Cold War provided to space development in OTL, and probably exceed it because there will be a lot more players on the field. The Cold War was just a balance of power game with only two players, and a whole lot more small and medium powers caught in the middle.

IMO, a continuation of the 19th century balance of power is an almost ideal situation for continuing rapid development; competition in science, industry, and economics will replace military conflict. The World Wars also arguably hurt research as much as they helped; lots of potential inventors were killed, and wartime often forces nations to give up on new research in favor of mass production of existing technology.
Possible,
but in OTL without Sputnik and Gagarin i think that The space programs would be more slow.
And have been possibles satellites and capsules without ICBM?
Sure,but in how much decades?
I have fear that Robert Goddard not was much funded by State and privates for his rockets.
And Hermann Oberth Wernher Von Braun without Hitler and V2?
The Kaiser can funded V2 program without wars or tensions when Hitler barely funded the program?
Competition between nations in second half of XX century in this ATL could focus on deep oceans (the sixth continent).
I think that without the wars (hots and cold) we have much changes.
Some thinks are advanced like OTL,but some are more slow.
I think that the Space is between those.
 
I think that United States could be very rich prosperous and advanced in this ATL.
More that in OTL
Actually, the whole entire premise of the American century, was based on the economic and political growth that took place after the Spanish-American War. The problem is that prior to c.1917, the United States was considered a regional power, not a "Great Power"....



This was one of the many proposals by scholars c. 1900. The idea was that the English language was supposedly becoming more simplified.


Also without an "great war in pacific" i think that Japan have a little Empire in Korea,and maybe in some areas of the China.
Actually, Japan only was considered a major power in the region after the successes of the Russo-Japanese War, and its role in the Boxer Rebellion. Before the Russo-Japanese War, it was believed that no Asian nation could threaten a European nation, hence the "white man's burden"....


I think that medicine is advanced like in OTL.

Just remember that medical treatments that allowed women to survive childbirth, birth control, and to compete athletically with men, allowed women to be considered as "equals". It was hard to be considered an equal, if a female was likely to suffer "fainting spells" due to restrictive clothing, and was considered mentally and physically inferior to males....


This is not sure.
Can be a progressive women empowerment,but i don't see nothing comparable with our 60s-70s counterculture in thid ATL

Actually, women were considered legally unfit to hold public office, to vote, and to hold a job. Just remember that women, were considered to be the legal wards of their husbands, fathers, or the closest male relative. Those who advocated the right to vote were considered "extreme feminists"...


Possible.
Who knows if in USA the model of "Broadocre city" proposed by Frank Lloyd Wright can have a development in this ATL.
Not really. The idea of the interstate highway came out of the public works projects of the 1930s. Up until that point roads were the jurisdiction of the states and local municipalities....
 
By this application of a more "boring" TL, the following items have to remain constant:

* The Democratic Party would have to still be controlled by Dixiecrat leaders from below the Mason-Dixon line...

* American expatriate immigration into Mexico surpasses Mexican migration (1.67% of the population) into the United States, leading to the annexation of Nicaragua and portions of Mexico...

* The abolition of the letters C, X, and Q in the English alphabet...

* Japan and China never rise as political powers, as part of the "white man's burden"

* Gold standard remains the primary source of international finance...

* Solid constitutional governments for all of Western and Eastern Europe...

* Abortion was to be considered the normal routine of the midwife...

* Women would not desire political power...

* 50% of the population of the country would still populate the rural areas of the country rather than the cities...

* White Anglo Saxon Protestant (WASP) males make up the majority of the population, especially with child and female mortality rates....

A number of these seem to require ASB...

Bruce
 
Possible,
but in OTL without Sputnik and Gagarin i think that The space programs would be more slow.
No reason there can't be a TTL equivalent to Sputnik; somebody will get to space first, and then the other Great Powers will want to catch up.

And have been possibles satellites and capsules without ICBM?
Sure,but in how much decades?
I have fear that Robert Goddard not was much funded by State and privates for his rockets.
And Hermann Oberth Wernher Von Braun without Hitler and V2?
The Kaiser can funded V2 program without wars or tensions when Hitler barely funded the program?
Like I pointed out earlier, new military research in some areas might get more funding without a major war going on; wars tend to create a lot of pressure to focus on mass producing what already works instead of spending resources on research that has no guaranteed divedends. Certainly one of the main reasons Hitler had trouble funding the V2 program was the need to produce tanks, planes, guns, and bullets to keep his armies supplied.

Competition between nations in second half of XX century in this ATL could focus on deep oceans (the sixth continent).
Deep oceans would only really appeal to major naval powers; so long as Britannia rules the waves everyone else is going to be hesitant about investing a lot of resources into anything on the seas. Space, on the other hand, has the benefit of being wide open to everyone.
 

Lux

Banned
Well, I suspect life will be exciting (and short) for a lot of people in the Third World. Are we assuming the British go all Draka? For that's the only way they're going to be still running India in 2000.

Bruce


No, as long as they maintain enough bullets and money, India and other people with the capability of tanning are doomed.

Remember, 90% of the reason that the age of empires ended was because said empires decided to destroy each other.

Honestly, after a while the Indians will just accept it and eventually just be like British Africans.
 
Actually, the whole entire premise of the American century, was based on the economic and political growth that took place after the Spanish-American War. The problem is that prior to c.1917, the United States was considered a regional power, not a "Great Power"....
I don't speak of great power or global power,but of a very rich and prosperous country.




Actually, Japan only was considered a major power in the region after the successes of the Russo-Japanese War, and its role in the Boxer Rebellion. Before the Russo-Japanese War, it was believed that no Asian nation could threaten a European nation, hence the "white man's burden"....
But in XX century Japan can become a little regional power also without a great war with Europeans powers or United States.




Just remember that medical treatments that allowed women to survive childbirth, birth control, and to compete athletically with men, allowed women to be considered as "equals". It was hard to be considered an equal, if a female was likely to suffer "fainting spells" due to restrictive clothing, and was considered mentally and physically inferior to males....
Fashions is the same like in OTL,nothing restrictive clothing after 20s.
maybe not flappers fashions,but nothing of restrictive.



Actually, women were considered legally unfit to hold public office, to vote, and to hold a job. Just remember that women, were considered to be the legal wards of their husbands, fathers, or the closest male relative. Those who advocated the right to vote were considered "extreme feminists"...
An evolution in XX century is reasonable.


Not really. The idea of the interstate highway came out of the public works projects of the 1930s. Up until that point roads were the jurisdiction of the states and local municipalities....
Broadocre project not was anthitetical to interstate highways.
 
I don't speak of great power or global power,but of a very rich and prosperous country.
You have to remember that the "Monroe Doctrine" is going to have to be ignored by all of the other nations. Second, America in hte ATL is constantly trying to imitate European ideas and politics.


But in XX century Japan can become a little regional power also without a great war with Europeans powers or United States.
But it is limited to participation in Korea, and a few ports in China. Participation elsewhere is considered taboo.



Fashions is the same like in OTL,nothing restrictive clothing after 20s.
maybe not flappers fashions,but nothing of restrictive.
Consider that part of the changes in fashion took place because of two things. First, women of the period were celebrating their ability to be more independent because of political gains (e.g. the right to vote). Second, the need for less restrictive clothing came from the need for their participation in the workforce, brought about by the First World War.



An evolution in XX century is reasonable.

Remember that the "evolution" came only because of the massive protests and social changes that took place, along with the demands that society presented. Without the First World War or Second World War presenting employment possibilities, many women won't express either the desire of need for employment. Without the African-American Civil Rights movement of the 1950/1960s, there is no movement to have women outside the role as housekeeper. If you look at the books prior to c.1900, the role of women was solely to find a "good man" to marry (see Little Women, Pride & Prejudice, Emma, Sense & Sensibility, et al.)
 
Remember that the "evolution" came only because of the massive protests and social changes that took place, along with the demands that society presented. Without the First World War or Second World War presenting employment possibilities, many women won't express either the desire of need for employment. Without the African-American Civil Rights movement of the 1950/1960s, there is no movement to have women outside the role as housekeeper. If you look at the books prior to c.1900, the role of women was solely to find a "good man" to marry (see Little Women, Pride & Prejudice, Emma, Sense & Sensibility, et al.)
This timeline might offer a good test of Marxism if only we could observe it. Marx would predict that the society should adapt to maximize companies profits by allowing them to employ women as they can pay them less than men. If we assume that society remains closer than OTL to the society analyzed by Marx, we should expect the widespread employment of women but less pressure for equal pay.
 
Like I pointed out earlier, new military research in some areas might get more funding without a major war going on; wars tend to create a lot of pressure to focus on mass producing what already works instead of spending resources on research that has no guaranteed divedends. Certainly one of the main reasons Hitler had trouble funding the V2 program was the need to produce tanks, planes, guns, and bullets to keep his armies supplied.

Very true - also, one of the reasons the V2 program cost $2 billion was the fact that they built more than 6000 of the things ... in a research program you'll hardly need anywhere near that number of test objects.

Generally, I'd say the following about both jet and rocket propulsion: the necessary theoretical groundwork in thermodynamics was there, the materials that were cutting edge in the 40ies would have been produced for other applications within a few years after their OTL introduction, and once you have those, someone will put them together in the shape of a rocket!
 
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