The Mongols That Never Were

What if no Mongol invasion? Let’s say Temujin dies or isn’t able to unite the factions or the steppe tribes are culled by a plague or pick your POD. Whatever you alter the Mongol hordes either attack piecemeal or not at all or are at the very least delayed and don’t attack during the 13th century.
 
Probably not quite what you're looking for, but if Khwarizm didn't piss off the Mongols, they never really would have gotten anywhere west.
 
Weren't the Mongols important in the rise of Muscovy? Otherwise, Vladimir-Suzdalia or Novgorod might have a better chance to unify Russia.
 
Well, if the Chinese hadn't kicked us out earlier it would have been the Hungarian Empire that opened the Silk Road so wide that Black Plague snuck through and killed a third of the population of Europe, instead of the Mongols.
Imagine a Hungarian Siberia! The largest nation on earth (well, in real estate terms, anyway). Who knows, we might have discovered America before that Italian!
 

Hendryk

Banned
If you butterfly away Temujin, one likely consequence is that by the 13th century the Song dynasty will have become the world's first industrial power, and, by the 15th century, will have satellized most of Asia, as well as possibly America.
In the decades preceding the Mongol invasion of the Southern Song, China's steel production was as high as Britain's circa 1850. Literacy was around 30% and rising, thanks among other things to the generalization of printing; the farming sector was producing a healthy agricultural surplus; and the first attempts with mass production of consumer goods were taking place here and there. I needn't mention such technological breakthroughs as the compass or gunpowder, as everybody knows about them.
 
I dont think that Temujin is as important as many think. The reason for the explosion from the Steppe was the same behind that of Scandivania and its Norse residents. Overpopulation forced people to compete more with each other. This is what is behind the unification of the Mongol tribes and later addition of the Turks.
 
Without Temujin though wouldn’t the migrating Mongols have faced the same fate as say the Celts – without a uniting leader all their strength is just so many waves upon the breakers.

Even without the Mongols would the Song last long enough to “advance”? During the Song Dynasty you have the nobles exerting pressure on the Emperor and power over all of the Empire. This doesn’t sound like a particularly stable setting – the adage “too many cooks” comes to mind. They may have been on the road to industrialization but they were also on the road towards a new set of Dynastic wars. Though I suppose if you wanted to put a positive spin on the situation you could say this would lead to a Magna Carta event.
 
Without the Mongol invasion, how would the Russias develop. Some how I envision an analog of the HRE, with one state or ruler theoretically above the others, but heavily decentralized and with dozens of states.
 
Tynnin said:
This doesn’t sound like a particularly stable setting – the adage “too many cooks” comes to mind. They may have been on the road to industrialization but they were also on the road towards a new set of Dynastic wars. Though I suppose if you wanted to put a positive spin on the situation you could say this would lead to a Magna Carta event.

The dynasty might fall; but the Mongols were catastrophic.

We're talking about a population decline in terms of millions, if the sources are anywhere near accurate.

But the Song, IMO, were stronger than commonly thought. Initial attacks on the Song by the Mongols failed spectacularly, as they got bogged down and died of disease in southern China. Only when Khublai tried to set himself up as more Chinese than the Emperor did they start succeeding.

Mind, I'm not sure if the chinese could hit on the steam engine; that took a lot of tinkering and experimentation with atmospheric pressure in Europe. But even a technological level equivalent to Europe of, say, 1750 would have huge effects.
 
Justin Green said:
Without the Mongol invasion, how would the Russias develop. Some how I envision an analog of the HRE, with one state or ruler theoretically above the others, but heavily decentralized and with dozens of states.

That was pretty much the case with Russia before the invasion... the Grand Prince of Kiev was theoretically "first among equals", but practically exercised little power outside of Kiev itself, and the position was largely honorary among some of the Russian princes at the time. There was somewhat of a drive to create a more centralized state, and I think without the invasion, Russian unification would have still proceeded at pace similar to OTL, but possibly resulting in two or three larger states instead of dominant Muscowy, some of which would have probably been Novgorod, Vladimir-Suzdal, and Halych-Volhyn. Moskva would not have even gained any major significance under these circumstances, and Kiev's time has by then passed. They would probably have gained different social systems too; Novgorod being a mercantile republic with beginnings of democracy, Vladimir-Suzdal being a traditional Russian/Byzantine-style autocracy, and Halych-Volhyn having more in common with Poland and Hungary as far as being more of a central/western European style feudal system. It would be interesting to see a TL based on that...
 
Lemme post something I wrote up for the Prince of Peace, about Russia.

Since it's been brought to my attention that people find the position
of Vladimir as of 1244 a bit… unlikely, I've decided to write a post
detailing a brief overview of the history of Russia between 1197 and
1244.

Russia, by 1200, is divided into several different states:
Vladimir-Suzdal, Kiev, Smolensk, Chernigov, Ryazan, Polotsk, and
Novgorod. To an outside observer, it might very well seem like the
Russians were mired in pointless, endless fratricidal warfare.

This is only true, however, in Southern Russia, where the princes of
Smolensk, Chernigov, and Volynia were fighting one another for
supremacy in southern Russia and for control over "the mother of
Russian cities", Kiev.

Northern Russia presents a very different picture. The lands of
Vladimir Suzdal (which we will henceforth refer to as Suzdalia)
prosper. Most of its cities are situated along the Volga or the
Klyaz'ma, giving the city access to the markets of the east.

The city of Vladimir was founded in 1108 by Vladimir Monomakh, one of
the many descendents of Vladimir. This small state, however, rapidly
expanded; and under the reign of his son Andrei, Vladimir truly
emerged as one of the great powers in Russia. Andrei drove out his
brothers and the senior boyars of his father, in his desire to be a
strong monarch, and pursued a ruthless policy of expansion. While he
failed to set up an independent metropolitanate, it was one of his
sons who sacked Kiev in 1169 and placed a brother of Andrei on the
throne there.

Andrei was murdered in 1174, but his brother, Vsevolod, succeeded in
reestablishing control over Suzdalia in 1176. Vsevolod continued his
predecessors' policy of expansion across Russia, and he was the first
prince to be known as "the grand prince". The Grand Prince would
negotiate an agreement with Novgorod, in which the disputed
territories in the northwest were administered jointly, and he founded
towns to act as a bulwark against the Bulgars.

By 1200 AD, Vsevolod's power was so great that he was considered to be
"senior amongst the cousins in the tribe of Vladimir", and poets would
urge him to "fly to Vladimir, to watch over [his] father's golden
throne".

Ryazan, by this point, was essentially a vassal of Suzdalia, for
Vsevolod forced Ryazan's army to fight with him against Chernigov and
the Polovtsians, and he meddled in the city's internal affairs
repeatedly. Even in Pereyaslavl, far to the southeast, Suzdalia
dominated, to the point where Vsevolod felt secure placing his ten
year old son, Yaroslav, on the throne of the city in 1200.

Then, of course, there is Novgorod, the free and independent city to
the north. It could appoint its own mayor, who was known as a
posadnik, it could choose its own archbishop, and, most importantly,
after 1136, it could choose its prince from any dynasty it pleased.

But the freedom of Novgorod did not, and could not last. While it is
true that the boyars could choose their own prince, the boyars divided
themselves into different groupings. There was the faction which
supported the princes of Chernigov, there was a faction that supported
the princes of Suzdalia, and there were those that supported the
princes of Smolensk. This meant that the boyars could not rule without
the backing of whoever was prince at the time, and the prince at the
time depended on his home city for support.

By the end of the 12th century, this had led to the domination of one
family: the princes of Suzdalia. Vsevolod had curbed even Novgorod's
right to choose its own prince. In the 1180's and 1190's, the prince
of Novgorod was a puppet of Vsevolod, and in 1199 Vsevolod appointed
his three year old son to the throne of Novgorod.

So powerful was Vsevolod that a Kievan chronicler in 1195 would write
that "the Rus cannot exist without Vsevolod, for we have placed in him
seniority amongst all our cousins in the tribe of Vladimir." Even in
the south he was feared, and he forced the prince of Smolensk, in
1195, to hand over to him five towns near Kiev which the prince of
Smolensk had previously given to the prince of Volynia.

In the south, the endemic warfare continued between the princes of
Chernigov (the Ol'govichi) and the other princes of southwestern
Russia, notably the Rostislavichi, under the leader of their prince
Ryurik, who ruled Smolensk. The death of the Ol'govichi prince of Kiev
in 1194 caused the beginning of a war that would last for decades, and
it was a war that would devastate all of southern Russia.

There was a truce in 1196, but war resumed in 1200, due to largely
personal reasons. Roman, prince of Volynia, divorced his wife in 1196,
who unfortunately happened to be the daughter of the prince of
Smolensk, so that he could remarry a daughter of Emperor Isaac II of
Byzantium, and a relative of the Hungarian King, who is known to us as
Anna [177]. Thanks to his dynastic ties with Hungary, allowed the
prince of Volynia to grab the rich principality of Galicia, uniting
two of the most fertile provinces in southern Russia.

The union of the two provinces scared the other princes of the south,
and it fell upon Vsevolod III to build up resistance to Roman. He
persuaded the prince of Chernigov to break off relations with Roman,
and persuaded Ryurik (who was already angry at the treatment his
daughter had received) to go to war with Roman.

Initially, the war in the south favored Roman, who took Kiev from
Ryurik in 1200. Roman placed his cousin Ingvar on the throne of Kiev,
and for two years all was quiet. But Ryurik attacked Kiev with
Vsevolod in 1203, and together with the Polovtsian nomads and the
princes of Chernigov captured the city.

The sack was devastating; entire districts were burned, the cathedral
of St. Sofia, and all monasteries, were sacked, and the Polovtsians
led their captives off into the steppes, never to see their homes in
Kiev again.

Ryurik, however, could not hold Kiev without support from Vsevolod,
and Ryurik was obliged to do him homage and promise not to ally with
the princes of Chernigov.

For a while it seemed as if there would be peace, and Roman and Ryurik
went on a campaign in 1204 against the Polovtsians together. But Roman
betrayed Ryurik, who was arrested and forcibly tonsured. Ryurik's
sons, Rostislav and Vladimir, were taken to Galicia as prisoners of
Roman.

Vsevolod III, of course, did not stand for this, and forced Roman to
release Ryurik's sons, and Rostislav became the new prince of Kiev. In
despair of ever taking Kiev, Roman turned west, and launched a massive
campaign against Leszek of Krakow. He was defeated in 1205, however,
and slain in battle.

The death of Roman marked the end of an era. Galicia was now wide open
to invasion, and in 1205 Ryurik (who quickly abandoned the life of
monks) joined with the prince of Chernigov, Vladimir, to invade
Galicia. Their campaign in 1205 was a failure, but the two prepared a
massive invasion force for 1206, in which all the available forces of
the two princes took part. The invasion escalated into a massive
international conflict, with Poles, Hungarians, and even Vsevolod
taking part, by sending forces from his son's principality of
Pereyaslavl'. The end result is that the prince of Chernigov,
Vladimir, was installed in the city of Galich, dominating the two
principalities.

By this point, the princes of Chernigov felt that he was the ruler of
southern Russia, and threw Vsevolod's son Yaroslav out of the
principality of Pereyaslavl, and for a short time Chernigov held sway
over all of southern Russia. The Princes of Chernigov also took Kiev
and installed one of their own, Vsevolod Chermnyy in place of Ryurik.

But the Princes of Chernigov had not counted on two things: the
resilience of the princes of Smolensk and the fury of Vsevolod III.
Ryurik and his family occupied the towns surrounding Kiev, and soon
pushed Vsevolod Chermnyy out of Kiev. The Princes of Chernigov pushed
Ryurik out of Kiev early in 1207, but just as it seemed as if they
would be able to hold Kiev, Vsevolod III, prince of Suzdalia, struck.
He set off in August of 1207 with a large army, when he received word
that Ryazan was planning to revolt, he occupied the major cities of
Ryazan. Although he was not the one who caused Vsevolod Chermnyy to be
ejected from Novgorod, that prince was forced out by Ryurik, who
became (again) the prince of Kiev.

This continues for several more years, with Ryurik's nephew Mstislav
taking Novgorod from Vsevolod's son in 1208. This causes Vsevolod to
ally with the princes of Chernigov against the princes of Smolensk,
and the princes of Chernigov "asked for peace and submitted to him in
all things". Vsevolod Chermny's daughter Agafia was married to Yury,
son of Vsevolod of Suzdalia, on April 11 1210, and the two forces then
united against the princes of Smolensk. Ryurik was removed from Kiev,
and when he died, none mourned him, for "he had no peace from any
direction, and was much addicted to drink and was manipulated by
women".

By 1211, one would hope that Vsevolod would be able to relax. Alas,
such was not to be, for his sons were already quarreling over what
would happen to his principality after his death. Vsevolod had several
sons, who, in order of their birth, were Konstantin, Yuri, Yaroslav,
Vladimir, Svyatoslav, and Ivan. As of 1211, Konstantin was the only
one who was specifically allocated titles, and had been granted the
city of Rostov. Vsevolod decided that Konstantin was to be given
Vladimir, and Yuri was to take over Rostov. Konstantin, however,
wanted both [178]. When Vsevolod summoned him to Vladimir, Konstantin
refused to go, and Vladimir decided that the issue must be dealt with.
Vsevolod summoned a great zemskie zobory, a national council,
embracing "all his boyars from the towns, Bishop Ioann, the abbots,
the priests, merchants, servicemen and all the people".

At the session, with nearly unanimous approval, he bestowed Vladimir
on his second oldest son, Yuri, and granted him seniority within the
family. Konstantin was furious at the news and refused to acknowledge,
but Vsevolod fell ill in April of 1212 and was prevented from moving
against his son until July [179]. In OTL Konstantin succeeded in forcing his father to recognize him as the senior member of the family, but in an ATL it's easy to imagine it going the other way.

And in any case, the fact that Vladimir-Suzdal was capable of all that shows that it was already the preeminent power in Russia. In a world without Mongols, I would envisage it to unify the Rus by the end of the 13th century.

This Russia, based on the support of "the priests, merchants, servicemen, and all the people", would be more of an absolutist state akin to Denmark or Sweden instead of Russia, and considerably more open to Western influences.

Thoughts?

In
 

Diamond

Banned
midgardmetal said:
They would probably have gained different social systems too; Novgorod being a mercantile republic with beginnings of democracy, Vladimir-Suzdal being a traditional Russian/Byzantine-style autocracy, and Halych-Volhyn having more in common with Poland and Hungary as far as being more of a central/western European style feudal system. It would be interesting to see a TL based on that...
I started a TL, 'Crossroads of the World' which is tangentially related to this idea, but is sparked by reforms in Kiev which allow it to retain status and influence. I need to do much more reading on the period before I can continue it, though.
 
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