The miracle of House Arpad

krieger

Banned
As far as I know, Andrew III the last Arpad king of Hungary had a daughter, Elizabeth born in 1292. Said daughter was regarded as saint after her death. Say that this daughter is born in ATL as a male (probably called Andrew) and is married to daughter of Wenceslas of Bohemia named Elizabeth (OTL wife of John of Luxembourg). The Premyslid marriage will still happen, because Andrew needs allies against Angevins and Wenceslas needs to secure his crown in Poland. After assasination of Wenceslas III, Andrew IV and his wife are obvious and strongest candidates to succeed Wenceslas against unpopular Henry of Carinthia. So Andrew takes thrones of Poland and Bohemia. What would happen next? Gaining Galicia would be beneficial for both Poles and Hungarians, so I think that Andrew IV would like to take part in this war. Also his piety would certainly urge him to become a crusader and baptize pagan Lithuanians. So we could see alliance between this union and TO against Lithuania. Not a good news for Lithuanians.
 
Surviving House of Arpad means, that Czechs do not open next front trying to secure throne in Buda, that means they make less enemies. Death of Wenceslaus III would be propably butterflied away-he was murdered during preparations to his Polish campaign, he planned to restore Premyslid control in Poland, which ITTL would likely never be lost.
 

krieger

Banned
Surviving House of Arpad means, that Czechs do not open next front trying to secure throne in Buda, that means they make less enemies. Death of Wenceslaus III would be propably butterflied away-he was murdered during preparations to his Polish campaign, he planned to restore Premyslid control in Poland, which ITTL would likely never be lost.
We don't exactly know who murdered Wenceslaus. Konrad von Botenstein is a suspect, but his fault was never proven. Out of security I decided not to butterfly Wenceslas death.
 
Also his piety would certainly urge him to become a crusader and baptize pagan Lithuanians

Would Andrew IV really be as pious as his female counterpart though? Elizabeth was forced to take the vows, not a chance that Andrew would have been forced to take the same path.
 
Without having Hungarian front open, Premyslid rule would be more stable and they would have less external and also less internal enemies, so chances, that Wenceslaus III is murdered are lower than IOTL. But assuming, that he still dies like IOTL (but his father, without Premyslid attention being distracted by Hingarian affairs, managed to crush Łokietek, killing him or forcing to flee the country again) there is still someone else, who would claim Polish throne: Henry of Głogów.
 

krieger

Banned
Would Andrew IV really be as pious as his female counterpart though? Elizabeth was forced to take the vows, not a chance that Andrew would have been forced to take the same path.
Louis IX managed to be a Catholic zealot without taking any vows. So I think that that path is also possible for Andrew IV, who could take Louis IX (or his own ancestor, Ladislaus I of Hungary) as a ideal model of king.
 

krieger

Banned
Without having Hungarian front open, Premyslid rule would be more stable and they would have less external and also less internal enemies, so chances, that Wenceslaus III is murdered are lower than IOTL. But assuming, that he still dies like IOTL (but his father, without Premyslid attention being distracted by Hingarian affairs, managed to crush Łokietek, killing him or forcing to flee the country again) there is still someone else, who would claim Polish throne: Henry of Głogów.
Yes, but Wenceslaus III seemed (from descriptions of his personality in chronicles) like an airhead, so we don't know if his death was really connected with politics or he just did something stupid (like bed someone's wife or grant someone's piece of land to one of his friends) and got murdered in revenge. But what Henry of Głogów could do against the forces of Bohemia and Hungary combined? He wouldn't stand a chance and he died in 1309 leaving only underaged sons.
 
End of Premyslid Dynasty would create power vacuum, like IOTL. Andrew IV would need to secure two new thrones, and like with Wenceslaus II and III, no one but Andrew IV would be happy with Arpad moloch appearing in Central Europe. Bohemia is part of HRE and and German monarchs have a word to say about Czech succession. Andrew would be busy in Bohemia, giving Henry of Głogów time. Łokietek also was mr. Nobody, but thanks to chain of lucky events managed to get Royal Crown.
 

krieger

Banned
End of Premyslid Dynasty would create power vacuum, like IOTL. Andrew IV would need to secure two new thrones, and like with Wenceslaus II and III, no one but Andrew IV would be happy with Arpad moloch appearing in Central Europe. Bohemia is part of HRE and and German monarchs have a word to say about Czech succession. Andrew would be busy in Bohemia, giving Henry of Głogów time. Łokietek also was mr. Nobody, but thanks to chain of lucky events managed to get Royal Crown.
But would Albert I be able to stop Andrew? Albert in OTL tried to give Czech throne to his son, Rudolf and it didn't work. Would it work if Andrew and his Hungarians are involved? I don't think so. The best, what Albert could get (and it could be achieved only in alliance with Henry of Carinthia. Additional alliance with Henry of Głogów would be also profitable) is something similar to the situation from Matthias's Corvinus reign with Bohemia proper being under control of non-Hungarian pretendent and Moravia being in control of Hungarian king (Silesia is out of equation, because it would be under Henry of Głogów and his rule). And there is one more problem. Henry of Głogów dies in 1309. How his sons would keep the throne, even assuming that he gets crowned (if he is allied with Albert I against Andrew IV he could get a crown from Emperor) and his eldest son, Henry the Faithful succeeds him?
 
Albert I would create troubles for Andrew, even if eventually his attempts to stop Andrew from taking Czech throne fails, thus giving Henry time to consolidate his power. For Andrew Poland would not be first priority, Kingdom of Bohemia, which is stronger than barely reunitef Poland and Andrew had better claims to its throne, is first priority. That would give Henry a moment to take a breath.
 

krieger

Banned
Albert I would create troubles for Andrew, even if eventually his attempts to stop Andrew from taking Czech throne fails, thus giving Henry time to consolidate his power. For Andrew Poland would not be first priority, Kingdom of Bohemia, which is stronger than barely reunitef Poland and Andrew had better claims to its throne, is first priority. That would give Henry a moment to take a breath.
It's true. But Albert I dies in 1308, and Henry of Głogów dies in 1309. So there would be no Henry of Głogów to consolidate power, but regency. Would Andrew clash with Albert to the time, when Henry IV the Faithful reaches adulthood?
 
So, Prince András (later King András IV) is born in 1292, and if we assume that all things go reasonably close to OTL, that means his dad remarries to Agnes of Habsburg (daughter of the German king/Holy Roman Emperor). It was under Habsburg pressure that Erszebet's betrothal to Vaclav (Wenzel) III was broken off, and Erszebet re-engaged to Heinrich the Friendly of Austria. András III was a supporter of his father-in-law King Albrecht against Adolf of Nassau IIRC, and Agnes is likely to be regent for her stepson (unsure what the age of majority in medieval Hungary was). Which means that Albrecht would do well to keep his step-grandson on side, plus, his only daughter close in age would be the OTL duchess of Calabria (not to mention aunt-nephew marriages were explicitly forbidden by the church and had a whole different set of hoops to jump through than uncle-niece matches AFAIK).

And if András IV is friendly enough to the Habsburg regime, why upset the apple cart and make a play for Bohemia? This is the era before the Golden Bull, so it was hardly as though it was to secure an electoral vote. Although, I still predict Rudolf will try (and probably fail), but if András is married to Anna (instead of Elisabeth) and perhaps has one kid by her already (king of Hungary is a far more important match than a count of Görz, so I could see that happening) when Vaclav III dies, I could see Rudolf's attempt being a non-starter.

If Rudolf doesn't attempt his Bohemian adventure, he might not die of the stomach problems that killed him (although in 1300s and 1310s there were a lot of odd deaths and political murders: the king of Hungary in 1301 (36yo), the king of Bohemia-Poland is murdered in 1306 (17yo), Rudolf of Habsburg in 1307 (25yo), the king of Germany murdered a year later, the king of Castile in 1312 (27yo), Philippe V* in 1314, Louis X in 1316 (27yo))

*The only one who was reasonably old-ish and died a reasonably uncontroversial death
 
I think if Lokietek's earlier sons(Wladyslaw and Stephen) survive, they would marry Clementia of Hungary in this scenario since Charles Robert was allied with him.
 
Łokietek would be nobody ITTL. His wife and kids were hidding disguised as simple townspeople during his exile.
Since the POD included Wenceslaus III still dying is a part of the POD Lokietek would still claim the throne, since both the Anjous and Piasts have a common enemy with the surviving Arpads They might ally.
 
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