WI: No October Coup?
Originally posted by ShrapMetal on Oct 8, 2016
Originally posted by ShrapMetal on Oct 8, 2016
ShrapMetal said:I've been wondering, since this is the 100th anniversary of the October coup, what would have happened if the coup plotters failed to get their plan off the ground, or were caught in the weeks prior to launching operation?
If there wasn't coup would Maximilian had still invaded Hanover? If not would there still be awar?
Columbina789 said:The answer: most likely.
By the time of the coup Maximilian's empire building had reached its climax and it certainly wasn't looking like he was going to back down with Britain over Hanover. If there was no coup there'd be no impetus for an 'early' occupation and war. However, he would still invade in the spring or summer of 1917 and the longer break between the 3rd Confederation War and this alt-4th War would allow for Maximilian to better prepare for the coming onslaught. I can see the Reichsflotte performing a lot better than OTL for one, especially if the SMS Der Prinz August and SMS Der Prinz Johan Galt are actually delivered by Russia in April 1917 rather than being impounded. If so, I can see the war on the high seas being a much closer run thing than the tragicomedy of OTL.
ShrapMetal said:Would Russia be willing to side with Emperor Max if the way is delayed to 1917?
Portuscale explorer said:By 1916, the Tsar's court had swung decidedly against the Confederation. The Hamadan massacres occurred just a month before the October Coup and this growth of anti-German sentiment was not going away. After Haretski stepped down in December, all hopes of stopping the inevitable Russia-Confederation conflict went out the door. It only needed a spark.ShrapMetal said:Would Russia be willing to side with Emperor Max if the way is delayed to 1917?
However, if there is no immediate outbreak of war in 1916 and tensions linger on till Spring 1917, I do see a number of OTL players jumping in the war later on, or staying neutral
- France was leaning more and more pro-Confederation by the year due to their strong commercial and royal ties, and if a civil war like situation breaks out in Hanover which forces Max's hand, I don't see Louis or Rouen jumping to get France involved (especially the king who actually was at one point pro-confederation)
- With just a few more months, I'm willing to be that the Ottoman's Balkan troubles would blow up earlier, perhaps even before a potential ATL spring invasion of Hanover. If so, Russia's interests in the region could prove the impetus for conflict to ignite in southwestern Europe, and perhaps evolve in a larger war if France/Egypt/England gets involved
- With the Confederation being stronger and more stable during winter break of TTL's 1916-17, I doubt Italy would be willing to push the Venetian question. Enrike Cardino's pro-Frankfurt government had just been appointed the year before the October coup, and the July Manifesto was accepted, or at least tolerated, by the majority of Venetia's population, so I don't see them or Italy really pushing Max's buttons on the topic.
In general, if war is delayed to the middle of 1917
- France looks weaker and is closer to Maximilian, and this most likely leads to no Operation Schwarz and no entry of the Netherlands into the war
- War between Russia and Germany is brewing, and the troubles in the Balkans could prove to be a match that lights the fuse. If Bulgaria breaks away from the Turks (which is highly likely given the POD), Russia and Romania would invade to support their Orthodox brothers
- If King Louis is on Maximilian's side, Italy would think twice about entering the war just to grab Venetia. No one in Turin would be willing to commit to a two front war.
ShrapMetal said:Thanks for the intresting info Portuscale. Does any one else have any thing to say?
I wonder if Scandinavia would still eventually fight back for Holstein in this scenario?
Alternate History said:Talks had already broken down in Britain and Hanover by October anyway and there is no way Hanover with its fiercly loyal-to-the-commonwealth population would just roll over in the near future and accept Max's rule. War was a certainty by that point and if there was no coup there would only be an invasion.Portuscale explorer said:- France was leaning more and more pro-Confederation by the year due to their strong commercial and royal ties, and if a civil war like situation breaks out in Hanover which forces Max's hand, I don't see Louis or Rouen jumping to get France involved (especially the king who actually was at one point pro-confederation).
RedBlackBeaver said:If the Fourth War didn't break out when it did, expect Copenhagen to sit on its hands and continue to mope, as given just a few more months, the Confederation would seem far to strong in a world without the coup.ShrapMetal said:I wonder if Scandinavia would still eventually fight back for Holstein in this scenario?
Peter from Hannover said:This is a common misconception.Alternate History said:there is no way Hanover with its fiercly loyal-to-the-commonwealth population would just roll over in the near future and accept Max's rule.
While alot of us today pride ourselves in being the birthplace of the royal dynasty, that's the point; its only today that a majority support our monarchy. Pan-Germanism was quite the catch back in the day, and in the elections to the 1915 Diet, pan-German and pro-Confederation parties won a plurality of the seats. That's partially the reason the conspiracy and coup was able to be so successful in the first place, as the Reichsadler had support from politicians like Blücher and von Gehrden. Their about-face after the war doesn't distract from the fact that many (if not a majority) of citizens and politicians supported some sort of political or economic union with Maximilian's empire prior to the coup.
That's why Portscale brought it up; there really were tangible fears floating around that the country would fall into a civil war between unionists and loyalists.
Alternate History said:Even still, remember that the powers-that-be in Hanover would be quite averse to rule from Frankfurt. The landholders were almost overwhelmingly loyalist, and there the ones that controlled the military. So even if the Reichsadler were able to push their faction to rise and attack the loyalists, the rest of the military would easily be able to snuff them out before they became too much of a problem.Peter from Hannover said:SNIP
I think Columbinia is right though in saying that the confederation would roll the dice and invade in mid-1917, even without a domestic disturbance in Hanover. If you read any of Maximilian's memoirs, it seems that the man had a one track mind of unifying the Germans, and he wouldn't let anything stand in the way of that, not in OTL or ATL.
Tumble said:Check out my timeline, the POD is not quite the same, but it still follows a similar timeline to the ones being discussed in this thread!
meizle said:Au contraire, the impounding of the undelivered ships wouldn't drastically effect the war on the seas to any great extent. Remember, the Commonwealth had nearly double the fleet of the Confederation alone, and with Russia perhaps joining them, that's still a rounding kick of a fight for the Reichsflotte. In 1917 alone, the Royal Navy was getting three Hanover-class ships, with more to come the year after, all the while your venerable SMS Der Prinz August and SMS Der Prinz Johan Galt would be busy sitting around in Hamburg after the Confederation runs out of oil come 1918.Columbina789 said:I can see the Reichsflotte performing a lot better than OTL for one, especially if the SMS Der Prinz August and SMS Der Prinz Johan Galt are actually delivered by Russia in April 1917 rather than being impounded.
There's no way the Confederation could win on the sea, and there's only one way they could win on the land - don't invade the Dutch!
meizle said:Interesting story Tumble, although it's definitely too much of a Confederation/Pan-German wank. As I said in the above post, you wouldn't be seeing a victory on the high seas, even with the impounded ships, and the Confederation's victory over Russia probably wouldn't be so complete. Remember, it took ten months to take Poland in OTL, and they held onto the majority of it for even less time, so I don't think they'd be able to dictate much more than an independence for a new 'Duchy of Warsaw'.Tumble said:Check out my timeline, the POD is not quite the same, but it still follows a similar timeline to the ones being discussed in this thread!
Also, don't expect any form of Operation Schwarz to happen ITTL; the only reason Max invaded was to pressure the French who ITTL would be more inclined toward the Confederation.
San Paulo said:I think alot of people in this thread are forgetting Luxembourg. Even if the Confederation doesn't invade Hanover (or their attentions are turned away from it) Maximilian would still want to grab a hold of Luxembourg from the Dutch.
ProfessorE said:Maximilian was certainly no Caesar, but he was still no strategic idiot. He was always more willing to apply backroom pressure on the Dutch rather than just straight out invade as OTL, and I could see in TTL that he would continue his plans to cajole or purchase Luxembourg from Amsterdam. Wether the plans would succeed or not it up for debate, though I feel that it is a possibility if France is more pro-Frankfurt than OTL.San Paulo said:I think alot of people in this thread are forgetting Luxembourg. Even if the Confederation doesn't invade Hanover (or their attentions are turned away from it) Maximilian would still want to grab a hold of Luxembourg from the Dutch.
Peter from Hannover said:Don't be so sure about that. The Reichsadler weren't the only underground unionist group in Hannover, so don't just go about underestimating their power just yet. From the sources I've seen there were about a dozen-or-so secret societies in the Kingdom devoted to union with the Confederation, and about half of those were militias set up to prepare the Kingdom for the 'immediate union between Hanover and Germany'. Depending on whether the KaH continues to be downsized in the months after this failed coup, you would definitely be seeing a more equal fight if the unionists and loyalists started fighting in the streets by mid-1917. If the rest of the Commonwealth decide to reinforce the Kingdom prior to this potential 'civil disturbance', I could see it being either butterflied away, or as fuel being added to the fire. There was no clear solutions for our national question by 1916.Alternate History said:Even still, remember that the powers-that-be in Hanover would be quite averse to rule from Frankfurt. The landholders were almost overwhelmingly loyalist, and there the ones that controlled the military. So even if the Reichsadler were able to push their faction to rise and attack the loyalists, the rest of the military would easily be able to snuff them out before they became too much of a problem.
As others have been saying besides, Maximilian was willing to role the dice when he was far weaker in late-1916; with his position stronger by mid-1917, you would definitely see him invading regardless of if a civil war broke out in Hannover or not. He would probably still lose, especially if the Grand Alliance is formed as IOTL, but I imagine the fight could be drawn out to 1920 or 1921 at the latest.