The Milwaukee Road Strikes Back

A long time ago, on a railroad far far away....






Episode 1:

It is a dark time for the Milwaukee road. Although the threat of a "Hill Lines" merger has been shot down twice, the Great Northern lawyers have driven their case once again to the ICC, and have driven the Milwaukee from the negotiating table, and nearly into bankruptcy.

Evading the dreaded Burlington Northern, a group of chairmen headed by Leonard H. Murray are establishing a new secret deal in a remote room in Chicago Union Depot.

The evil lord Louis W. Menk, obsessed with taking down Murray's railroad, has diverted thousands of cars off the Milwaukee...
 
A couple notes before I continue:

1. I'm doing it as part of an english class and will most likely have formatting errors due to copy/pasting from Word. Let me know and I'll fix them
2. Yea, annoying font, etc. I don't plan on keeping it and the writing will probably be much more academic from here out.
3. I doubt I'm smart enough to make the whole thing Star Wars themed. It took me a half hour just to make this work, but I'll try to throw in the occasional reference if people want.
 
What kind of game plan could the Milwaukee Road have up their sleeve? The Pacific Extension was profitable to the end and could be made into a gold mine, but by the time of merger talks among the Hill Lines the company's financial state was bad and getting worse. What do ya have in mind....?
 
What kind of game plan could the Milwaukee Road have up their sleeve? The Pacific Extension was profitable to the end and could be made into a gold mine, but by the time of merger talks among the Hill Lines the company's financial state was bad and getting worse. What do ya have in mind....?
really what screwed them over was electing Quill as president, as he was the mastermind behind the failed CNW merger and was just desperate to dump the company by the end of it, since the previous decade was spent looking good for the ICC. My idea is, with someone like Murray (CEO of the Soo Line from 1961-78), who historically focused more on survival than expansion, the Road will be in a better state later on, so that they can at least ride out the 70's and thrive in the 80's and 90's.
 
really what screwed them over was electing Quill as president, as he was the mastermind behind the failed CNW merger and was just desperate to dump the company by the end of it, since the previous decade was spent looking good for the ICC. My idea is, with someone like Murray (CEO of the Soo Line from 1961-78), who historically focused more on survival than expansion, the Road will be in a better state later on, so that they can at least ride out the 70's and thrive in the 80's and 90's.

A good place to start, but keeping the Milwaukee alive means killing Burlington Northern in the cradle, and that's a really tough ask. It is possible to make the Milwaukee thrive as a long hauler starting in the 1980s, but with BN around, the Milwaukee hasn't got a choice but to align itself with somebody else, and no way will the ICC allow it to be an eastern road, which narrows you to three options, and since Southern Pacific is not in any financial shape for it, you're down to Union Pacific or Santa Fe.
 
I'm doing it as part of an English class and will most likely have formatting errors due to copy/pasting from Word.
The easiest way to strip out any formatting legacy issues is to copy the text into Notepad and then copy it from there into the text box to post. We were just discussing the mess that was/is the US rail system the other day so I'll be interested to see where you take this.


... and no way will the ICC allow it to be an eastern road...
Was there a specific policy of keeping the railroad companies from different coasts separated or did it simply work itself out that way? I ask as I noticed that aside from a few short stretches of line and around Chicago modern companies like the BNSF and the Union Pacific are mostly concentrated west of the Mississippi and the CSX and the Norfolk Southern to the east of it.
 
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A good place to start, but keeping the Milwaukee alive means killing Burlington Northern in the cradle, and that's a really tough ask. It is possible to make the Milwaukee thrive as a long hauler starting in the 1980s, but with BN around, the Milwaukee hasn't got a choice but to align itself with somebody else, and no way will the ICC allow it to be an eastern road, which narrows you to three options, and since Southern Pacific is not in any financial shape for it, you're down to Union Pacific or Santa Fe.
How so? the Road had the most direct line from Chicago to Seattle, so given the right treatment (i.e. combining to some extent with the CNW and RI), it could easily throw it's weight around.
The easiest way to strip out any formatting legacy issues is to copy the text into Notepad and then copy it from there into the text box to post. We were just discussing the mess that was/is the US rail system the other day so I'll be interested to see where you take this.
Thanks for the advice:)


Was there a specific policy of keeping the railroad companies from different coasts separated or did it simply work itself out that way? I ask as I noticed that aside from a few short stretches of line and around Chicago modern companies like the BNSF and the Union Pacific are mostly concentrated west of the Mississippi and the CSX and the Norfolk Southern to the east of it.
It just sort of ended up that way. There's a few exceptions such as KCS, CN's Illinois/ Wisconsin Central/GTW, and CP's lines through NY, Michigan, and the upper midwest, among others, but other than that the dividing line is pretty much a happy coincidence.
 
How so? the Road had the most direct line from Chicago to Seattle, so given the right treatment (i.e. combining to some extent with the CNW and RI), it could easily throw it's weight around.

As good as the Pacific Extension would be if able to run at full capacity (and it wasn't able to from about 1960 onward), the physical plant would require huge work and the 1920s-era electric infrastructure is a big hangup. The latter is fairly easy - GE tried really hard to get the Milwaukee to commit to a rebuild of the Pacific Extension's electrification, to the point of offering to underwrite the job - but its still hugely costly, and the track and roadbed would need huge work as well, AND you run into the issue that the Milwaukee would have to clearance the line for double-stack container operations as they are doing the electric rebuild to maintain the competitive advantage. As good as it would be for them in the longer run, the cost of doing so in the 1960s or 1970s would be ruinous.

The C&NW's financial shape in the early 1970s was rather dire (this is why it was sold to its employees) and the Milwaukee and C&NW ran against each other pretty much everywhere east of the Twin Cities and across Wisconsin, Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska, as well as having competing (and money losing for both) passenger operations. A Milwaukee Road-Rock Island merger would work (in fact it would probably work rather well given a few shifts in operating patterns, but the monumental challenges for both railroads financially would be a huge issue) aside from a lot of line duplication in Iowa and South Dakota, though that being said, you could conceivably use leverage approval for Burlington Northern into support for a Milwaukee Road-Rock Island merger to get two big players in the West, and later change the fates of the Frisco and Katy, with Frisco joining the MILW-RI railroad and the Katy becoming part of the Burlington Northern - the Katy would fill in an awful big hole in BN's network, and the Frisco would be a good addition to the MILW-RI railroad, particularly if you built out an extension on the Frisco main from Tucumcari or Santa Rosa, NM, to the east end of the Frisco main at Floydada, TX, and somehow fill in the gap between St. Louis and Chicago.

The next problem for this scenario (still assuming UP eventually takes over the Missouri Pacific) is what the fate of the Chicago and North Western would be. Burlington Northern and this combined MILW-RI railroad would both surround the C&NW, and while they could so as OTL and sell to Union Pacific, a better idea might be to dodge the IC-GM&O merger and have C&NW merge with the GM&O, giving it access to all the major markets south of Chicago.
 
As good as the Pacific Extension would be if able to run at full capacity (and it wasn't able to from about 1960 onward), the physical plant would require huge work and the 1920s-era electric infrastructure is a big hangup. The latter is fairly easy - GE tried really hard to get the Milwaukee to commit to a rebuild of the Pacific Extension's electrification, to the point of offering to underwrite the job - but its still hugely costly, and the track and roadbed would need huge work as well, AND you run into the issue that the Milwaukee would have to clearance the line for double-stack container operations as they are doing the electric rebuild to maintain the competitive advantage. As good as it would be for them in the longer run, the cost of doing so in the 1960s or 1970s would be ruinous.
Almost no line in the country operates at full capacity at all times, or even close to it. Doing so would be ruinous considering one extra could overfill a division, more or less adding the seasonal grain crop on top of everything. Look at what happened during the Bakken oil boom if you don't believe me. Also, last I checked the estimated cost to get the PE up to class IV standards (40MPH freight) was only about $51M. Granted, it would still be more to rerun catenary to clearance double stacks, but I doubt it would be ruinous. The PE was profitable until the end, the Milwaukee was just so hellbent on a merger that they thought liquidation/ debt reduction was a safer bet to get a merger partner, and they were probably right.

The C&NW's financial shape in the early 1970s was rather dire (this is why it was sold to its employees)
It was offered for less to the Milwaukee before that happened, along with the Northwestern guaranteeing its debt. again, once you get rid of the duplicate routes and keep the best ones, it might be a bit rough at first, but I see no reason as to why it can't work. (I think it's worth noting at this point that things will start around '57, so arguing about the state in the 70's could end up being a moot point).

I mean, I get what you're saying, but does this mean it can't work? after all, Penn Central was in way worse shape and it managed to bounce back (albeit with government help).
and the Milwaukee and C&NW ran against each other pretty much everywhere east of the Twin Cities and across Wisconsin, Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska,
... which would be solved pretty handily come deregulation. Also, it is worth noting that the CNW's shorthaul traffic to UP can now go cross country on home rails. Altogether, the ICC estimated the merger would save the combined company $36M annually.
as well as having competing (and money losing for both) passenger operations.
that was literally the state of the passenger rail industry from ~1960 to around Amtrak's formation.
A Milwaukee Road-Rock Island merger would work (in fact it would probably work rather well given a few shifts in operating patterns, but the monumental challenges for both railroads financially would be a huge issue) aside from a lot of line duplication in Iowa and South Dakota, though that being said, you could conceivably use leverage approval for Burlington Northern into support for a Milwaukee Road-Rock Island merger to get two big players in the West, and later change the fates of the Frisco and Katy, with Frisco joining the MILW-RI railroad and the Katy becoming part of the Burlington Northern - the Katy would fill in an awful big hole in BN's network, and the Frisco would be a good addition to the MILW-RI railroad, particularly if you built out an extension on the Frisco main from Tucumcari or Santa Rosa, NM, to the east end of the Frisco main at Floydada, TX, and somehow fill in the gap between St. Louis and Chicago.
This. I like this. :openedeyewink:

The next problem for this scenario (still assuming UP eventually takes over the Missouri Pacific) is what the fate of the Chicago and North Western would be. Burlington Northern and this combined MILW-RI railroad would both surround the C&NW, and while they could so as OTL and sell to Union Pacific, a better idea might be to dodge the IC-GM&O merger and have C&NW merge with the GM&O, giving it access to all the major markets south of Chicago.
I am still of the opinion that an early merger between the MILW and the CNW, although the GM&O merger option is tempting...

but with the BN/Katy, IC and MILW/RI/Frisco, could that still be profitable?
 
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Episode 1.1: Excerpt from the December 1957 Milwaukee Road Magazine.

Leonard H. Murray Elected President Succeeding John P. Kiley

Leonard H. Murray, who has been vice president of the Duluth, South Shore, and Atlantic Railroad for 8 years. He was chosen at the recommendation of Kiley, and after several meetings held by the board of directors in Chicago, it is now official that Murray will be replacing Kiley, who will step down and become temporary vice president effective Dec. 31.
This decision comes as a surprise, as many suspected William J. Quinn, having worked within the much larger Milwaukee system, would be selected as president. However, the board was much more impressed with his and his associate's - Henry S. Mitchell's - performance reviving the ailing D.S.S.A.
The choice of Mr. Murray over Mr. Quinn has commanded quite the attention on the part of the press. Principal among these reasons is the choice of a relatively young and green outsider to command the nation's 4th largest railroad. It is also noteworthy that he reached the presidency mostly through practice of law, rather than through railroad operations, which has constituted the most-often-trod path to railroad presidencies.
In order to quell both the press' and stockholder's worries, Leo T. Crowley, chairman of the board, introduced Mr. Murray to representatives of both parties at a luncheon, held in the Chicago Club immediately following the board's action. Later in the day Mr. Crowley also called together the officers and supervisors in the Chicago and Milwaukee areas for a standing room only meeting in the board room.
Assuring his listeners that he greatly appreciated the cooperation and consideration that he received from them, Mr. Murray said he would be counting on them for many great things in the future.
"I will enjoy working with you" he said,"and you are the people I will rely on. I believe that The Milwaukee Road is in the best position going forward. It is a wonderful place to work, and it is my aim to to work with you to keep it that way. I hope to keep giving the best service to our patrons, and to earn reasonable returns to out stockholders."
Before heading to Seattle for a conference among the Seattle Chamber of Commerce with other western railroads, President Kiley left a brief message. "This is a man who was given next to nothing and made something out of it. Imagine what his talent can do when given something and is pushed to make even more out of it. Despite his age, this man has greatly developed his skills in regards to management. Going forward, I have high hopes as to what he can accomplish"
 
Almost no line in the country operates at full capacity at all times, or even close to it. Doing so would be ruinous considering one extra could overfill a division, more or less adding the seasonal grain crop on top of everything. Look at what happened during the Bakken oil boom if you don't believe me. Also, last I checked the estimated cost to get the PE up to class IV standards (40MPH freight) was only about $51M. Granted, it would still be more to rerun catenary to clearance double stacks, but I doubt it would be ruinous. The PE was profitable until the end, the Milwaukee was just so hellbent on a merger that they thought liquidation/ debt reduction was a safer bet to get a merger partner, and they were probably right.

Forgive me, I may have not been particularly good at explaining what I meant by full capacity. The Pacific Extension was indeed profitable during the 1970s, in large part because of your correct comment about it being the shortest (and lowest graded) of the Chicago-Seattle main lines allowing the Milwaukee to have the ability to shave a full day off of BN transit times. But to truly prosper in the era of bulk trains and piggyback traffic and double-stack container trains, the Pacific Extension would have needed the electrification rebuilt or removed, the roadbed reinforced, bridges improved and tunnels clearanced. All of that would cost quite a lot more than $51 million. Trains have gotten a lot heavier since then and capacity would need to be added to not lose ground to BN, which has two routes across both the Cascades and the Continental Divide AND also has the ability to exchange cars to the south at either Portland or Bieber, CA. The Milwaukee would have their work cut out for them, but to this to completely work you need that route built big and strong, and that's gonna cost real money.

was offered for less to the Milwaukee before that happened, along with the Northwestern guaranteeing its debt. again, once you get rid of the duplicate routes and keep the best ones, it might be a bit rough at first, but I see no reason as to why it can't work. (I think it's worth noting at this point that things will start around '57, so arguing about the state in the 70's could end up being a moot point).

The problem with a MILW-C&NW merger is that you have duplicate lines all over the place, which is much less of a problem with the Rock Island. Still a problem, but far less of one. Ultimately which one you work with depends on what the goal of the management is. If they are solely interested in survival, adding the C&NW market share to your own makes sense. But if the goal is to grow the revenues of the railroad, you'd want to be working with the company who is much less of a competitor and offers far more market opportunities. If you're gonna allow BN to happen, working with the C&NW would be at best Atlanta temporary respite. Working with the Rock Island allows you to take on BN pretty much everywhere they run.

mean, I get what you're saying, but does this mean it can't work? after all, Penn Central was in way worse shape and it managed to bounce back (albeit with government help).

Penn Central should not have happened in the first place, and the only reason Conrail happened was because the only other options were letting rail service east of Ohio completely collapse or (As the AAR and a long list of other railroads demanded) cut the atrociously-managed Penn Central a check for better than a billion dollars. Nationalisation was the best of the bad options.

... which would be solved pretty handily come deregulation. Also, it is worth noting that the CNW's shorthaul traffic to UP can now go cross country on home rails. Altogether, the ICC estimated the merger would save the combined company $36M annually.

At the cost of reducing competition (which the ICC is not gonna like) and that only working if the freight can be sent to Seattle rather than San Francisco, Oakland or Los Angeles. Yes, the C&NW merger would help, but only in the short term. It wouldn't help the company's longer-term prospects at all.

that was literally the state of the passenger rail industry from ~1960 to around Amtrak's formation.

True, but Canadian National and to a lesser extent Southern and Santa Fe showed that it was possible to make profits on passengers give sufficient amenities and a certain reputation. CN managed to do a lot of that using equipment that they bought from other railroads that were bailing out of passenger services. I don't know if you'd go that route or not, but it's worth thinking about. :)

This. I like this. :openedeyewink:

My rule of thumb is that you look in rail mergers for companies which complement one another, because end to end mergers tend to end alright whereas parallel routes are hit and miss - BN and Chessie System worked out, Seaboard was hit and miss, Penn Central was a disaster. Try for the easy stuff first if you ask me. :)
 
Forgive me, I may have not been particularly good at explaining what I meant by full capacity. The Pacific Extension was indeed profitable during the 1970s, in large part because of your correct comment about it being the shortest (and lowest graded) of the Chicago-Seattle main lines allowing the Milwaukee to have the ability to shave a full day off of BN transit times. But to truly prosper in the era of bulk trains and piggyback traffic and double-stack container trains, the Pacific Extension would have needed the electrification rebuilt or removed, the roadbed reinforced, bridges improved and tunnels clearanced. All of that would cost quite a lot more than $51 million. Trains have gotten a lot heavier since then and capacity would need to be added to not lose ground to BN, which has two routes across both the Cascades and the Continental Divide AND also has the ability to exchange cars to the south at either Portland or Bieber, CA. The Milwaukee would have their work cut out for them, but to this to completely work you need that route built big and strong, and that's gonna cost real money.
I just did some research (yea, it probably should've be done by the time I start this. sue me :p) and the standard height for the catenary was 24ft. 2 in., 4 feet above the AAR maximum loading gauge of 20 ft. 2 in, so I'd actually be fine. As far as the rest of the track goes, I'm first going to point out that I made a typo. class 3 is 40 MPH freight, 60 passenger, whereas the current state of the BN route is mostly class 4/5 (60/80 Freight, 80/90 passenger) However, having driven along that route, I don't think I've seen any train go close to that.
So let's say they want to upgrade to class 4. According to a BNSF study for their Black Mesa project done in '08, it takes about $264,000 per mile to upgrade a mile of track to class 4, or about $47,575/mi in 1970. For easier math, we'll round that up to $50,000 per mile. The length of the transcon from MSTP to Seattle is about 1800 miles, for a total of $90 mil, and a grand total of $141 mil to get to class 4.

However, I would argue that class 4 is sort of a long term goal, as at the same time MILW was abandoning their transcon, BN was ripping up double track and selling/ leasing their former NP and GN routes, so with the Milwaukee still kicking, they could sufficiently drag traffic away from BN where the maintenance emergency has a lot more time to be resolved.

The issue with exchanging at Portland was solved in the OTL merger, and I have plans to deal with that which I'll withhold for now. :biggrin:
The problem with a MILW-C&NW merger is that you have duplicate lines all over the place, which is much less of a problem with the Rock Island. Still a problem, but far less of one. Ultimately which one you work with depends on what the goal of the management is. If they are solely interested in survival, adding the C&NW market share to your own makes sense. But if the goal is to grow the revenues of the railroad, you'd want to be working with the company who is much less of a competitor and offers far more market opportunities. If you're gonna allow BN to happen, working with the C&NW would be at best Atlanta temporary respite. Working with the Rock Island allows you to take on BN pretty much everywhere they run.
Short-term (first ~15 years) is survival, long term is to become competition. Also, I'm afraid I'm not familiar with the bolded phrase.
Penn Central should not have happened in the first place, and the only reason Conrail happened was because the only other options were letting rail service east of Ohio completely collapse or (As the AAR and a long list of other railroads demanded) cut the atrociously-managed Penn Central a check for better than a billion dollars. Nationalisation was the best of the bad options.
fair enough
At the cost of reducing competition (which the ICC is not gonna like) and that only working if the freight can be sent to Seattle rather than San Francisco, Oakland or Los Angeles. Yes, the C&NW merger would help, but only in the short term. It wouldn't help the company's longer-term prospects at all.
The ICC was perfectly okay with the merger, they just wanted to adjust the stake in the new company to better reflect the stock prices of both companies, which meant that the CNW had to trade a lot more due to its decreased stock price.
Really the only market that would be effected would be San Fran/ Oakland, as that's really the only one with a significant decrease in available routes to Chicago at Omaha, whereas you still have the GN/NP or BN and the CP in the northwest and the SP/SSW/RI or ATSF in the southwest. Whereas after going WP/DRGW/MP or SP/UP in the center, you're now down an option once you get to Omaha, unless you want to route things down to KC.

(sidenote, is my constant use of abbreviations annoying?)
True, but Canadian National and to a lesser extent Southern and Santa Fe showed that it was possible to make profits on passengers give sufficient amenities and a certain reputation. CN managed to do a lot of that using equipment that they bought from other railroads that were bailing out of passenger services. I don't know if you'd go that route or not, but it's worth thinking about. :)
I mean, I'll write about passenger operations until *Amtrak takes over, but that was all solved when the MILW/CNW drafted their combined timetable during merger proceedings.

Okay, not ALL of it, because it still would've lost a fuckton of money, but you know what I mean :p
My rule of thumb is that you look in rail mergers for companies which complement one another, because end to end mergers tend to end alright whereas parallel routes are hit and miss - BN and Chessie System worked out, Seaboard was hit and miss, Penn Central was a disaster. Try for the easy stuff first if you ask me. :)
But things don't always go smooth during system expansions either. the UP/CNW and, to a greater extent, UP/SP mergers had some definite growing pains, as did CP when it bought the Dakota, Minnesota, and Eastern and the ICE - class 2 railroads. Railroads are finicky. I read a Trains article from 3 or 4 years ago making 4 predictions; two of them were that coal would remain king, and that Joe Boardman would be remembered as a good Amtrak president. :closedtongue:
 
The Pacific Extension wasn't as great as was touted

And while I'm a major electrification fan, let's keep in mind that the 3kV electrification was really the wrong standard and, in any event, needed to be completely replaced as it could not keep up with the existing power demands (often resulting in diesel helpers in electric territory).

That assessment of the Pacific Extension is quite harsh and effectively makes the case that it has no reason for existence....but somehow, despite antiquated electrical systems, dilapidated track, antique control systems and all of the problems that report mentioned, the Pacific Extension made a profit right up until it was abandoned in March 1980. Beyond that, given enough money available, it would be possible to fix many of the flaws that report mentions. The lack of longer sidings, centralized traffic control and additional curves is a problem if one doesn't seek to fix those issues.

BN's route across Stevens Pass - and having worked for BN in the early to mid 1990s and ridden on freight trains over that route many times - is hardly straight or easy to run loads over, the ruling speed limit for most of that route is 35 mph, and there are sections where the limit is as low as 15 mph, even on very well maintained track (as most BN main lines were and are today). That article effectively takes a dump all over the Pacific Extension without acknowledging that the BN merger requirements gave the Milwaukee that traffic improvement and that BN's problems with congestion were real right from the start. From the mid-1970s until the late 1990s, BN traffic out of Puget Sound either went north over Stevens Pass (a single track line with an eight-mile tunnel and was twisty as hell on the western approach) or south to Portland and then east on the former SP&S to Spokane before going east. The Pacific Extension was indeed a viable enterprise had it gotten sufficient improvements to allow it to be competitive with BN, but it never got those. Here, clearly, the poster intends to give it those improvements.

Priority one is what you mentioned - rebuild the electrification. This is a must if the company is gonna make the business case work. The gap between Avery and Othello needed to be closed, and the system needed to be rebuilt, preferably with 25 kV / 60 Hz power (though the use of 50 kV power would be possible with the hydroelectric dams of the region) and the electrification extended as far west as possible, at least into South Dakota. The capital cost of doing this is huge (both because of the cost of electrification building itself and that it would require all of the electric locomotives to be replaced) but if it could be done would provide the company with a significant economic advantage, particularly if they can swap out diesel power for electric. If the TL is going to do so in the late 1960s, you have the advantage of having both EMD and GE able and interested in providing motive power, and with the Milwaukee's standing offer from GE it would make sense to have the electrification rebuilt and have a fleet of E44A and E60 electrics built to retire the Boxcabs and the Little Joes.
 
I just did some research (yea, it probably should've be done by the time I start this. sue me :p) and the standard height for the catenary was 24ft. 2 in., 4 feet above the AAR maximum loading gauge of 20 ft. 2 in, so I'd actually be fine.

Having four feet of overhead clearance for these cars is fine for 3000V DC, but for 25kV electrification, you're running a real risk of arcing with four feet of clearance. The AAR's minimum clearance for 20'2" freight cars and electrification is 24'3", and IMO with high-current electrification that's pushing it. You'd probably want at least 26' to avoid any real risk of arcing. Beyond that, you'd need to make sure all of the tunnels on this route would be able to handle the double stacks you'll need to run, and make sure they can handle the size (and weight) of heavy loads. In the hydropower-rich Northwest, you may also consider running greater clearance to allow the use of 50kV electrification, which would give additional full-throttle power to the electrics so long as their traction motors and circuits can handle the voltage and the locomotives can make use of said power. From 1984 until 2000, British Columbia Railway's Tumbler Ridge subdivision was worked by EMD GM6C electrics operating on 50 kV, and that's line's demands were not that far off what the Milwaukee would need to make Pacific Extension electrification work.

As far as the rest of the track goes, I'm first going to point out that I made a typo. class 3 is 40 MPH freight, 60 passenger, whereas the current state of the BN route is mostly class 4/5 (60/80 Freight, 80/90 passenger) However, having driven along that route, I don't think I've seen any train go close to that.

Maybe they could get 60 mph on flat lands like the shores of Puget Sound or parts of the route from Portland to Tacoma, but there is no way in hell anybody's freight train is gonna go 60 mph in the Cascades, the route is too twisty. That said, you want the roadbed to be as tough as possible as this is a way of reducing maintenance requirements and thus the cost of maintaining the route. It's a classic case of spend a little more now to spend less later.

So let's say they want to upgrade to class 4. According to a BNSF study for their Black Mesa project done in '08, it takes about $264,000 per mile to upgrade a mile of track to class 4, or about $47,575/mi in 1970. For easier math, we'll round that up to $50,000 per mile. The length of the transcon from MSTP to Seattle is about 1800 miles, for a total of $90 mil, and a grand total of $141 mil to get to class 4.

Plus the cost of electrification rebuilding, don't forget. You'll need that to make this work properly. The proposal from GE and the Northwest Rail Improvement Committee said that the cost of rebuilding the electrification and closing the electrification gap would be about $40 million. I'd spend more than that and stretch the electric lines to Terry, MT or McLaughlin, SD, and use the hydropower of the northwest and the power of new electric locomotives (the Little Joes could at best make 5,100 horsepower and 75,700 lbs of tractive effort, the GE E44A could supply 6,000 horsepower and 96,000 lbs of tractive effort on the PRR's 11 kV electrification and GM's GM6C (6,000 hp, 126,000 lbs) and GM10B (10,000 hp, 114,000 lbs) beat that by an order of magnitude. Go with the big-voltage 50 kV / 60 Hz system used by the British Columbia Railway system and (assuming the new locomotives can handle it) will give you that much more power. (For comparison, the EMD SD40-2, which was BN's go-to locomotive from the mid-1970s until well into BNSF years on the Cascade routes, produces 3,000 hp and 83,100 lbs tractive effort.) The cost of the electrification rebuild to those standards and that length would probably run about $60-65 million, but would pay for itself very rapidly as the ability to keep the diesels on Lines East would make for greater motive power and thus the ability to rebuilt or retire older units.

However, I would argue that class 4 is sort of a long term goal, as at the same time MILW was abandoning their transcon, BN was ripping up double track and selling/ leasing their former NP and GN routes, so with the Milwaukee still kicking, they could sufficiently drag traffic away from BN where the maintenance emergency has a lot more time to be resolved.

If BN knows that the Milwaukee is gonna fight for every nickel of revenue from Lines West, you can bet that ripping up of double track is going to stop and quickly. BN's management prided themselves on keeping as high a standard as they could for their lines and I know from personal experience that they meant that. If the electric Milwaukee with its efficient operations are playing tough BN is going to try to fight back as well.

The big curveball that will hit you in the 1970s is if both Burlington Northern and Milwaukee Road are really playing rough. The Port of Portland was short of capacity (and this would be made worse in May 1980 by the eruption of Mount St. Helens, which dumped a pile of sediment into the Columbia River), San Francisco's piers shrunk dramatically in the 1960s, Oakland was a busy port in the 1960s but its shallow depth made for problems after that and until the building of the Alameda Corridor trying to run rail freight out of the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles was a pain in the neck due to the density of South Central Los Angeles - none of these problems apply to Seattle (which has both BN and MILW rail service by the time of this TL's beginning) or Tacoma (ditto). With it being shorter to ship to Seattle, does a 1960s-1970s slugout between BN and MILW result in the Ports of Seattle and Tacoma growing? Seattle today has a massive bulk grain terminal on the waterfront south of Balmer Yard and a sizable port southwest of the downtown core, does a BN-MILW slugout mean more traffic there or to Tidewater Flats in Tacoma? Does BN and MILW re-route traffic bound to north of Seattle around the city and use Balmer as a destination yard, maybe turning Seattle and Tacoma into rivals to Los Angeles and Long Beach? If that ends up being the case and if MILW runs to Portland (where the interchange with SP existed, and SP held a grudge against BN for wanting to exchange cars at Bieber, CA rather than Portland) and Vancouver (specifically the huge port at Roberts Bank) one could easily see MILW having the lion's share of lumber traffic from the northwest headed straight onto the SP at Portland, bound for booming California, and a relationship with the British Columbia Railway to add to the north-south loads. Hell, with better lines and faster transit times, what's stopping the fishing fleets that roamed out of Seattle from dropping off their catches and having one railroad or another make regular unit trains of frozen fish for eastern markets? Or how about the Milwaukee take advantage of their car-offloading facility in Tacoma to unload new cars inbound from Japan starting in the early 1970s directly onto unit trains of new cars? The possibilities are quite wide.... :biggrin:

The issue with exchanging at Portland was solved in the OTL merger, and I have plans to deal with that which I'll withhold for now. :biggrin:
Short-term (first ~15 years) is survival, long term is to become competition. Also, I'm afraid I'm not familiar with the bolded phrase.

The bolded phrase was a typo caused by an overzealous autocorrect. Sorry about that.

If it was me doing this, I'd try for both Portland and Vancouver/Roberts Bank, even if the latter would require new construction. Best bet for this might be a condition of the BN merger being the Northern Pacific line from Seattle to Sumas, WA, being sold to the Milwaukee Road, then new-building to Roberts Bank and the Port of Vancouver, along with using the British Columbia Railway to gather loads in BC that have to go south, picking them up at Vancouver or Roberts Bank and delivering them to the SP at Portland to take them to California. (Or if SP's being a pain in the neck or the WP wants them, to BN to deliver to Bieber for the WP.)

The ICC was perfectly okay with the merger, they just wanted to adjust the stake in the new company to better reflect the stock prices of both companies, which meant that the CNW had to trade a lot more due to its decreased stock price.

That's a big problem, though, as not doing that would either allow CNW stockholders to make out like bandits, cost MILW stock holders a pile or both. Having to work around that is a must.

Really the only market that would be effected would be San Fran/ Oakland, as that's really the only one with a significant decrease in available routes to Chicago at Omaha, whereas you still have the GN/NP or BN and the CP in the northwest and the SP/SSW/RI or ATSF in the southwest. Whereas after going WP/DRGW/MP or SP/UP in the center, you're now down an option once you get to Omaha, unless you want to route things down to KC.

A fair point, but UP also has the option of using the Rock Island Main Line from Omaha west to Chicago, and until 1968 they also have the option of the Chicago Great Western, which UP could probably also simply buy out. If you're getting this done before the mess that was the UP-RI merger proposal, you could still form the second mega-railroad of the West, as your combined MILW-CNW merging with the Rock Island would still be a mostly end-to-end merger.... :biggrin:

(sidenote, is my constant use of abbreviations annoying?)

Nah, not to me, I know where you're going with this. :)

I mean, I'll write about passenger operations until *Amtrak takes over, but that was all solved when the MILW/CNW drafted their combined timetable during merger proceedings.

Okay, not ALL of it, because it still would've lost a fuckton of money, but you know what I mean :p

I'm not entirely sure of that. Canadian National Railways did a great job of reducing their passenger losses in the 1960s and 1970s by running better systems and thinking of long-distance passenger service as an experience and not just transport from one place to another. The CNW and MILW both had a history of that, and the electrified divisions could, given sufficiently good equipment (buy used and upgrade or buy new Hi-Level style double-deckers, either can work) be a real option even in the Jet Age. There would be little point to coach cars here, you'll want all-sleeper trains for this, with the best of amenities. Even if they lose money, this also has the benefit of showing off to customers and the public, a point that the Rio Grande exploited for over two decades with the Rio Grande Zephyr long after the creation of Amtrak.

It's just an idea, but its one my railroad TLs have used. After all, the Milwaukee's passenger car fleet included a bunch of cars (namely the 'Super Dome' dome cars and 'Skytop' observation cars) that made a big impact and were among those that were loved by passengers. Imagine an Olympian Hiawatha (or if BN's not gonna use it, an Empire Builder :openedeyewink:) made up of a twenty-three-car luxury train with one of SP's three-unit dining cars with a kitchen in the middle, two Super Domes on either end of the restaurant car set, a pair of two-unit dome lounge-bar car sets, a pair of picture window-equipped lounge cars, ten sleepers in the train, a pair of baggage cars at the front and a Skytop at the tail end, all hauled at 85 or 90 mph on the smooth, solid-roadbed Milwaukee main line behind a A-B-B-A set of EMD E9s or Alco PA2s from Chicago through Lines East and then a pair or trio of GE E44As on the Pacific Extension. These trains also have sufficient power that if you wanted to you could haul some additional express cars. I'm having visions of a Milwaukee express crew delivering a handful of specially-designed boxcars (think the NYC's X60W series, eight-door 86' boxcars on express trucks) for the Hiawatha to take to Seattle....
 
I just stumbled onto this thread so pardon if my comments kind of skip around.
Electrification: I have always felt that this could have been a real shot in the arm at just the right time for the MILW. Some butterflies need to come out but it could have been just the thing to wake up senior management that the PCE and the MILW as a whole had potential to stand alone. The timing of proposals to rebuild/extend the electrification coincide with the 1973 oil embargo closely enough to make it a wank. This proposal provides the funding for the electrical system (as has been pointed out, GE proposed a locomotive replacement plan that seems to have been workable). Look at the assumption for diesel fuel cost-nine cents a gallon! Assuming this proposal, dated 1969, were adopted in 1970, with a start date of 1971, and a completion date (as proposed) of two years time...the MILW would have had a new electrification system, closed the Avery-Othello gap, and acquired a stock of brand new motive power, just as prices for fuel jumped by about half, and interest rates (well, the prime rate, anyway) went from 8 to 11 per cent. MILW would have just locked themselves in to long term agreements for cheap power, cheap locomotives, and cheap fixed plant. The inflation of the next decade would have made this an even better deal.
Merger(s): I don't know if MILW-C&NW would have flown. Granted, they called it off over financing but I don't know if the ICC would have allowed as much cost cutting as anticipated. Even after the Penn Central debacle, the ICC still saddled too many other roads with too much unneeded mileage. Amtrak would have relieved the passenger losses. But the UP was going to scream bloody murder about losing a friendly connection at Omaha (CNW) to a competitor (MILW). Maybe, if the UP-RI merger had been allowed to happen before the RI fell to pieces, the C&NW would have been more amenable to terms and the ICC could bless the merger as a defensive reaction to UP+RI.
Double Stacks: I wouldn't worry too much here. The PCE had already been increased to auto rack clearances and the extra for double stack would be minimal. (The electrical proposal above contemplates retaining 3kv DC power.) Double stack clearance didn't happen overnight on any railroad.
 
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The Pacific Extension wasn't as great as was touted

And while I'm a major electrification fan, let's keep in mind that the 3kV electrification was really the wrong standard and, in any event, needed to be completely replaced as it could not keep up with the existing power demands (often resulting in diesel helpers in electric territory).
@TheMann pretty much covered all the major faults with this, but it's also worth noting that the MILW saved a not-insiginificant amount of time by bypassing major cities on the route such as Spokane and Billings.
Having four feet of overhead clearance for these cars is fine for 3000V DC, but for 25kV electrification, you're running a real risk of arcing with four feet of clearance. The AAR's minimum clearance for 20'2" freight cars and electrification is 24'3", and IMO with high-current electrification that's pushing it. You'd probably want at least 26' to avoid any real risk of arcing. Beyond that, you'd need to make sure all of the tunnels on this route would be able to handle the double stacks you'll need to run, and make sure they can handle the size (and weight) of heavy loads. In the hydropower-rich Northwest, you may also consider running greater clearance to allow the use of 50kV electrification, which would give additional full-throttle power to the electrics so long as their traction motors and circuits can handle the voltage and the locomotives can make use of said power. From 1984 until 2000, British Columbia Railway's Tumbler Ridge subdivision was worked by EMD GM6C electrics operating on 50 kV, and that's line's demands were not that far off what the Milwaukee would need to make Pacific Extension electrification work.
I've done some calculations, treating the distance as point charges for simplicity's sake, and 25 KV can only jump a matter of 25-30 mm, so 4 ft. should be plenty of space. However, if I can remember how to factor in surface area into the equation (pun intended), I can do a more accurate assessment of the situation later.
Maybe they could get 60 mph on flat lands like the shores of Puget Sound or parts of the route from Portland to Tacoma, but there is no way in hell anybody's freight train is gonna go 60 mph in the Cascades, the route is too twisty. That said, you want the roadbed to be as tough as possible as this is a way of reducing maintenance requirements and thus the cost of maintaining the route. It's a classic case of spend a little more now to spend less later.
Having gown up on the eastern side of the transcon, I tend to forget that 40% of the journey is through mountains.
Plus the cost of electrification rebuilding, don't forget. You'll need that to make this work properly. The proposal from GE and the Northwest Rail Improvement Committee said that the cost of rebuilding the electrification and closing the electrification gap would be about $40 million. I'd spend more than that and stretch the electric lines to Terry, MT or McLaughlin, SD, and use the hydropower of the northwest and the power of new electric locomotives (the Little Joes could at best make 5,100 horsepower and 75,700 lbs of tractive effort, the GE E44A could supply 6,000 horsepower and 96,000 lbs of tractive effort on the PRR's 11 kV electrification and GM's GM6C (6,000 hp, 126,000 lbs) and GM10B (10,000 hp, 114,000 lbs) beat that by an order of magnitude. Go with the big-voltage 50 kV / 60 Hz system used by the British Columbia Railway system and (assuming the new locomotives can handle it) will give you that much more power. (For comparison, the EMD SD40-2, which was BN's go-to locomotive from the mid-1970s until well into BNSF years on the Cascade routes, produces 3,000 hp and 83,100 lbs tractive effort.) The cost of the electrification rebuild to those standards and that length would probably run about $60-65 million, but would pay for itself very rapidly as the ability to keep the diesels on Lines East would make for greater motive power and thus the ability to rebuilt or retire older units.
And I'm not saying that won't happen, what I'm getting at is that this isn't priority #1 when it comes to the PE, or the MILW in general.
If BN knows that the Milwaukee is gonna fight for every nickel of revenue from Lines West, you can bet that ripping up of double track is going to stop and quickly. BN's management prided themselves on keeping as high a standard as they could for their lines and I know from personal experience that they meant that. If the electric Milwaukee with its efficient operations are playing tough BN is going to try to fight back as well.
But assuming the MILW fought and fought hard, could it be that they drive enough traffic off the line where the cost of doing so becomes prohibitive?
The big curveball that will hit you in the 1970s is if both Burlington Northern and Milwaukee Road are really playing rough. The Port of Portland was short of capacity (and this would be made worse in May 1980 by the eruption of Mount St. Helens, which dumped a pile of sediment into the Columbia River), San Francisco's piers shrunk dramatically in the 1960s, Oakland was a busy port in the 1960s but its shallow depth made for problems after that and until the building of the Alameda Corridor trying to run rail freight out of the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles was a pain in the neck due to the density of South Central Los Angeles - none of these problems apply to Seattle (which has both BN and MILW rail service by the time of this TL's beginning) or Tacoma (ditto). With it being shorter to ship to Seattle, does a 1960s-1970s slugout between BN and MILW result in the Ports of Seattle and Tacoma growing? Seattle today has a massive bulk grain terminal on the waterfront south of Balmer Yard and a sizable port southwest of the downtown core, does a BN-MILW slugout mean more traffic there or to Tidewater Flats in Tacoma? Does BN and MILW re-route traffic bound to north of Seattle around the city and use Balmer as a destination yard, maybe turning Seattle and Tacoma into rivals to Los Angeles and Long Beach? If that ends up being the case and if MILW runs to Portland (where the interchange with SP existed, and SP held a grudge against BN for wanting to exchange cars at Bieber, CA rather than Portland) and Vancouver (specifically the huge port at Roberts Bank) one could easily see MILW having the lion's share of lumber traffic from the northwest headed straight onto the SP at Portland, bound for booming California, and a relationship with the British Columbia Railway to add to the north-south loads. Hell, with better lines and faster transit times, what's stopping the fishing fleets that roamed out of Seattle from dropping off their catches and having one railroad or another make regular unit trains of frozen fish for eastern markets? Or how about the Milwaukee take advantage of their car-offloading facility in Tacoma to unload new cars inbound from Japan starting in the early 1970s directly onto unit trains of new cars? The possibilities are quite wide.... :biggrin:
That they are.
I imagine the BN taking the Lion's share of Seattle/Tacoma, just to shave precious minutes/miles off their travel times, while MILW would dominate Portland, and have a significant presence in Vancouver, due to the reasons you stated, however, the Portland bit could still work to the BN's favor, as you'll find out later :openedeyewink:
 
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