The Military, Economy, and Politics of a Surviving Austria-Hungary?

Delta Force

Banned
Austria-Hungary had a strong armament, automobile, and aviation industry centered around Czechoslovakia. Firms such as Skoda (artillery, automobiles, and steel), Steyr Mannlicher (firearms), Lohner-Werke, and Tatra were very influential in the 1910s and went on to become even more influential in independent Czechoslovakia.

Many leading scientists and inventors were associated with Austria-Hungary as well, including Ferdinand Porsche, Hermann Oberth, and Erwin Schrödinger.

The economy of Austria-Hungary was surging before World War I too, although that was mainly because it lagged behind the other great powers in industrialization.

Politically, there were proposals to transform the Dual Monarchy into a Triple Monarchy (Poland and Croatia being commonly proposed as the third member). Franz Ferdinand even had plans for a United States of Greater Austria drawn up.
 

Deleted member 1487

Franz Ferdinand flirted with the triple monarchy idea, but dropped it in 1907 as unworkable, while the United States idea was proposed to him, but he did not buy into it. For more on his personal thoughts:
http://www.amazon.com/Archduke-Sarajevo-Romance-Tragedy-Ferdinand/dp/0316109517

The Habsburg economy was seriously constrained in the long term by a very economically conservative orthodoxy running the various ministries that saw them sabotage attempts early in the 20th century to spend on critical infrastructure projects:
http://press.princeton.edu/titles/1013.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_von_Koerber

There was also the Hungarian sabotage of the political workings of the empire and their efforts to effectively kill it from the inside no later than the 1917 Ausgleich renegotiations, while FF planned on basically couping the Hungarian Parliament when he rose to the throne to force changes to the constitution to break the lock the Magyar nobility had on that body. Likely A-H faces a civil war when FF rises to the throne or during the 1917 renegotiations. Then there is the potential issue of Russia completing its military expansion in 1917 and looking to make moves in the Balkans to break up the Habsburg empire, with 1917 being a bad year for the Habsburgs to face that, and get at their ultimate goal: Istanbul and the Straights.

The future didn't look bright for the Habsburgs, but potentially FF could avoid assassination and break the Magyars politically and actually revitalize the empire even as he aims for increased autocratic control. In the end Russia, Serbia, and internal ethnic issues conspired to nearly guarantee it falling parts due to internal or external factors at some point in the 20th century, probably within a few decades of 1914.
 
Likely A-H faces a civil war when FF rises to the throne or during the 1917 renegotiations. Then there is the potential issue of Russia completing its military expansion in 1917 and looking to make moves in the Balkans to break up the Habsburg empire, with 1917 being a bad year for the Habsburgs to face that, and get at their ultimate goal: Istanbul and the Straights.
I've toyed before with something similar: an Austro-Hungarian civil war, a third Balkan War over territorial claims, and a twelfth Russo-Turkish war all following in rapid succession as the Balkan house of cards collapses. Conceivably, if Austria collapses badly enough Italy may see an opportunity to seize the eastern shore of the Adriatic.

The Russo-Turkish war has the potential to trigger a reprise of the Crimean War. Equally, though, by 1915 the British were willing to consider letting the Russians have the Straits and Armenia. Greco-Russian relations may also see the Greeks getting a decent chunk of Thrace, Smyrna and the Dodecanese if they join in. The German and British reactions would be important.

If the Austro-Hungarian collapse is bad enough, could an Anschluss of the Habsburg Austrian possessions be on the cards - possibly with a suitable marriage to soothe dynastic concerns?
 
I've toyed before with something similar: an Austro-Hungarian civil war, a third Balkan War over territorial claims, and a twelfth Russo-Turkish war all following in rapid succession as the Balkan house of cards collapses. Conceivably, if Austria collapses badly enough Italy may see an opportunity to seize the eastern shore of the Adriatic.

The Russo-Turkish war has the potential to trigger a reprise of the Crimean War. Equally, though, by 1915 the British were willing to consider letting the Russians have the Straits and Armenia. Greco-Russian relations may also see the Greeks getting a decent chunk of Thrace, Smyrna and the Dodecanese if they join in. The German and British reactions would be important.

If the Austro-Hungarian collapse is bad enough, could an Anschluss of the Habsburg Austrian possessions be on the cards - possibly with a suitable marriage to soothe dynastic concerns?

The A-H "civil war" would be against the Magyar aristocracy, they have no friends anywhere, not even in Hungary itself. It would be pretty short and at the end you get the double monarchy abolished and universal male suffrage in Hungary breaking their power completely.

It was a more resilient construct than people give it credit - it took a 4 front war to fall and even when it fell it did so only after Russia!
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
FF is interesting because he hated Slavs like the plague, and still tried to find some way to increase their influence in order to pacify what he saw as a growing internal threat with outside support (Serbia and Russia).

Austria- Hungary is difficult. The main antagonist is the Hungarian nobility, and while they are by far the largest obstacle to basically anything, they are definitely not the only one. It would be moronic to Think that defeating the Magyar aristocracy would magically nake all other problems go away. on the contrary with one problem solved, the others would rise to the surface.

And one obstacle is actually the Habsburgs themselves. They don't want to become even less relevant in their own empire. They thought 2 Parliaments were 2 too many. Any more power given away, is power they lose and might never get back.
 

Deleted member 1487

FF is interesting because he hated Slavs like the plague, and still tried to find some way to increase their influence in order to pacify what he saw as a growing internal threat with outside support (Serbia and Russia).

Austria- Hungary is difficult. The main antagonist is the Hungarian nobility, and while they are by far the largest obstacle to basically anything, they are definitely not the only one. It would be moronic to Think that defeating the Magyar aristocracy would magically nake all other problems go away. on the contrary with one problem solved, the others would rise to the surface.

And one obstacle is actually the Habsburgs themselves. They don't want to become even less relevant in their own empire. They thought 2 Parliaments were 2 too many. Any more power given away, is power they lose and might never get back.

I don't think he hated all Slavs, but he wasn't super fond of the Czechs. He did hate the Magyar nobility and liberalism, he was enormously conservative, much like Czar Nicholas II.
 
FF is interesting because he hated Slavs like the plague, and still tried to find some way to increase their influence in order to pacify what he saw as a growing internal threat with outside support (Serbia and Russia).

Did he really? I know he hated Hungarians and disliked Jews. And he did consider Slavs a "culturally inferior" group which should be led and controlled by Germans, but I thought he was more along the lines of arrogant paternalism rather than outright hatred.
Austria- Hungary is difficult. The main antagonist is the Hungarian nobility, and while they are by far the largest obstacle to basically anything, they are definitely not the only one. It would be moronic to Think that defeating the Magyar aristocracy would magically nake all other problems go away. on the contrary with one problem solved, the others would rise to the surface.

And one obstacle is actually the Habsburgs themselves. They don't want to become even less relevant in their own empire. They thought 2 Parliaments were 2 too many. Any more power given away, is power they lose and might never get back.

Good point. The Hungarian aristocracy is just one of the Empire's many problems, and the centralized, reactionary system Franz Ferdinand intended to replace them with would be a fountain of new problems all by itself. Not to mention how the Hungarians may not necessarily take it lying down.
 
If Austria could have found a way to split with Hungary while still maintaining the German lands such as Austria itself .As well as the Czechoslovakia region and a coastline on the Adriatic then they would have held the power to oppose Italy and could if Hungary and the regions that left the empire were in small enough chunks eventually regain them into the fold .
By the turn of the millennium the Austrian nation assuming it democratizes and stays stable could be a major player on the continent .Along the lines of Germany or France today only with more land and would be one of the only multi-ethnic states on the continent .
That is assuming the whole empire does not explode during the civil war that it would take to get rid of Hungary .
 

LordKalvert

Banned
The A-H "civil war" would be against the Magyar aristocracy, they have no friends anywhere, not even in Hungary itself. It would be pretty short and at the end you get the double monarchy abolished and universal male suffrage in Hungary breaking their power completely.

It was a more resilient construct than people give it credit - it took a 4 front war to fall and even when it fell it did so only after Russia!

Very true

That the Hapsburg Monarchy was in hopeless disarray is one of the biggest myths of the era and unfortunately continues to this day.

The Magyar Aristocracy had no support within Hungary and the insanely restricted franchise meant that any effort by them would be opposed by the people. In a showdown, just tell them to play ball or universal suffrage

The other nationality disputes are really just middle class arguments over getting civil service jobs- by making Czech the language of a town, the Czechs could get all the jobsince all Czechs spoke Czech and most Germans did not

As the Army showed, it was possible to build up national institutions and the people were generally very loyal to the regime
 

Delta Force

Banned
Czechoslovakia did quite a bit of development of automobiles, aircraft, military equipment, and other technologies. Given how much of that was produced for export, how much of what Czechoslovakia developed can be considered things Austria-Hungary would have done?
 
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