The Massaliot league. A Hellenistic period Massalia Timeline

[Shevek23]

Trade is irrelevant,the problem is that this is an obvious strategic blunder.Any general who worth their two cents could have pointed out the problems of having another country's borders getting too close to your capital.The fact that they didn't bother to fortify the Alps is stupid.There would have been some input motion by the generals to at least garrison the place.

Well, I think I've given my opinions on these matters sufficiently, and I do agree someone would be arguing for more vigorous preparation. The thing is, it all flies in the face of centuries of established policy.

Even if the Romans don't come in force,they can cause enough trouble if they periodically sent small forces to raid the countryside around Massalia.

Now that would be very strange indeed! Rome is not some unruly coalition of wild tribes after all; it is a highly centralized state run by paranoid strategists. Surely the Romans have spies of some kind in Massalia, and realize that the complacent peace party there is playing into their hands. What possible gain could Rome realize with sporadic forays? They need to lull the fat and lazy League into as much false sense of security as possible the better to catch them by surprise when their trap is ready.

When did Romans ever behave like that? When they send small forces, it is not to raid but to conquer (or intimidate into a client relationship) someone they judge can be beaten easily. Or to punish raids by backward tribes.

Conceivably they are doing just this kind of thing--against the mountaineer tribes, who are not in the League. (But I'd argue, the friends of some inside it). Crossing over the ridge into actual League territory is not something they'd do piecemeal though. When they come, they will come intending to win and win big. I only hope and trust they will come too early--or more fundamentally, with just Italy in hand and most of that quite recently, they don't really have the force it takes to break the League, even with Carthage giving it their all beside them, but they miscalculate they do because they are thinking of mainly just having to conquer the city of Massalia itself, and don't understand that League power has a far broader base due to the unusually consensual nature of its expansion.

Not to exaggerate League innocence too far, they aren't fluffy little lambs. But more raccoon like than wolf like! Half the peoples the League has faced over its history have been enemies and treated severely when beaten. But the other half have been the former enemies of those the League takes down, and have been recruited into League society for a share of spoils. They are the ones whose descendants are still around with their old identity, more or less, and that identity includes membership, hence loyalty. That's my theory anyway! Most of the losers have long been assimilated into the lower levels of winner societies, and by now perhaps some individuals have risen high--only the most recent victims are still hanging around with both desire and possible means of vengeance still hot among them.

If the Romans properly understood the true nature of League society they would recoil, realizing that the task of breaking the League is the task of conquering it in full, and for that they need numbers they just don't have. But they have their own blind spots as the League leadership has theirs, mainly in the matter of assuming other people think basically the same way you without adequately checking that theory.

 

[Shevek23]

As far as I remember they did not exist.

These Goths don't come from Eastern Europe, they come from Scandinavia. Specifically southeast modern Sweden, notably in Östergötland and on the Bothnian island of Gotland. Wikipedia cites Pliny quoting Pytheas of Massalia mentioning the "Gutones." In this period they founded some colonies on the European mainland that drifted south gradually and wound up in Ukraine where Ulfias found them and converted that bunch to Arian Christianity, obviously many centuries hence. Obviously that particular branch of them doesn't exist yet and most likely won't, with the course of history in the Baltic region being heavily butterflied. But their ancestral people are up in OTL Sweden all right. I was suggesting a Baltic overlord of some extraction or other cobbles together a precocious kingdom, accelerated by extra levels of Mediterranean trade, puts a squeeze play on the Yperboria colony to further leverage power, and over the years a working relationship between Massaliotes and this northern empire develops. Perhaps the dynasty is Gothic, or Goths enlist as mercenaries for money and adventure and opportunity.

No particular reason to single them out; Boreal mercenaries can be from any number of peoples. I just thought it would be humorous but while there might be controversies about the details of Gothic history, there is no need to doubt some recognizable ancestral form of them exists already by this date, in the Baltic region though admittedly not elsewhere--yet!

I'm talking about something that might happen centuries hence of course, not tomorrow.

 

[arctic warrior]

The Goths may never have seen or left any part of Sweden or Gotland at least not to modern scholars. To such Jordanes took the land most far away from Constantinoble where he worked and used as a originating mythical homeland of his peoples. Whatever he seems to have known something about the recent political arrangements in southern Scandinavia but stories of old was possibly a tall tale. At least he didn't have them start leaving Troy before entering Scandinavia.

 

[Falecius]

The Goths may never have seen or left any part of Sweden or Gotland at least not to modern scholars. To such Jordanes took the land most far away from Constantinoble where he worked and used as a originating mythical homeland of his peoples. Whatever he seems to have known something about the recent political arrangements in southern Scandinavia but stories of old was possibly a tall tale. At least he didn't have them start leaving Troy before entering Scandinavia.

To be fair, Jordanes is not the only source suggesting a Scandinavian origin for the Goths, although I concur to take him cautiously.

 

[Skallagrim]

As long as the leadership escapes,which I do think there's plenty of time for them to do considering they will have access to the sea not to mention have enough ships to evacuate a lot of people,they should be able to rendezvous to a place like Tolosa and re-establish government.If the entire leadership gets decapitated,which I highly doubt unless people get obstinate and stupid,the league is definitely screwed.

I think people might underestimate how many soldiers a decent offensive in Iberia would demand. Lots of previously Barcid territories might not want to be Massalian at all, and welcome Hannibal as their liberating overlord. This is no march on Rome through hostile territory: this is the return of the king. He can, at least, play it up like that. Then there's the other Iberian peoples, many of whom are actively resisting Massalia. All Hannibal has to do is offer them independence and status as honoured allies (plausible, since the Barcids never subjegated them) and they'll flock to his banners. Then there's Sicily, which also has to be defended.

Just how many soldiers do people think Massalia has to offer? They can call upon their clients to send auxiliaries, but those will be soldiers of "inferior quality", so to speak. So even if Massalia can put up a good fight in Iberia - which I expect they will - that should take just about all their reserves. They'll likely expect that the Romans will either attack their navy, or attempt naval landings if they are going to attack. The defence of Massalia itself will likely be in the form of a fleet guarding the port. And army coming down from the Alps like lightning from heaven is not what they'll expect. Unlike @RogueTraderEnthusiast, I certainly do not think Scipio's attack will fail.

My point is this: it will take a damned long time to turn the armies around to come save the capital. And then there's the fact that not only does that mean abandoning Iberia and Sicily to the enemy... that enemy is probably also going to be in pursuit of the retreating forces! That's a terrible position to be in. And once the Massalian forces get back to the heartland, they have to win. They must take back the city, or they're in an even worse position. If they lose there, they lose not only the capital, but the heartland.

I'm pretty much certain the Massalian leadership will have escaped by sea in that scenario... but there to? If Hannibal starts his campaign bu succesfully taking the Pillars of Herakles, escape to the Atlantic will be extremely difficult. The Balearics, then? A coastal city in eastern Iberia? Those would be the only options, the former being perfectly defensible by the superior navy... but a very measly domain to control while the enemy does his best to conquer all your other lands.

I don't think Rome or Carthage could just gobble up the League, but if the city falls (and is not rapidly saved), the heartland falls. And if the heartland falls, the League is done fore. The furthet-out colonies will stay beyond the enemy's reach, but you can bet they'll all go independent before long. Just like the client peoples. Essentially, I think the League is in grave danger, facing extremely capable enemies, and I do not believe it is unrealistic to consider doom scenarios.

Although I actually expect that if such a scenario plays out, the League forces will succesfully save the heartland - possibly by laying siege to their own occupied capital while also blockading it from the sea. The end result would be that the League has to sacrifice (most of) Iberia and (their portion of) Sicily to the enemy. Time will tell if my estimation of the situation is even slightly correct. It's certainly quite a vexing time for the League, and - judging by the discussion - very exciting for the people following the TL. @Sersor has us on the tips of our seats.

 

[Falecius]

I think people might underestimate how many soldiers a decent offensive in Iberia would demand. Lots of previously Barcid territories might not want to be Massalian at all, and welcome Hannibal as their liberating overlord. This is no march on Rome through hostile territory: this is the return of the king. He can, at least, play it up like that. Then there's the other Iberian peoples, many of whom are actively resisting Massalia. All Hannibal has to do is offer them independence and status as honoured allies (plausible, since the Barcids never subjegated them) and they'll flock to his banners. Then there's Sicily, which also has to be defended.

Just how many soldiers do people think Massalia has to offer? They can call upon their clients to send auxiliaries, but those will be soldiers of "inferior quality", so to speak. So even if Massalia can put up a good fight in Iberia - which I expect they will - that should take just about all their reserves. They'll likely expect that the Romans will either attack their navy, or attempt naval landings if they are going to attack. The defence of Massalia itself will likely be in the form of a fleet guarding the port. And army coming down from the Alps like lightning from heaven is not what they'll expect. Unlike @RogueTraderEnthusiast, I certainly do not think Scipio's attack will fail.

My point is this: it will take a damned long time to turn the armies around to come save the capital. And then there's the fact that not only does that mean abandoning Iberia and Sicily to the enemy... that enemy is probably also going to be in pursuit of the retreating forces! That's a terrible position to be in. And once the Massalian forces get back to the heartland, they have to win. They must take back the city, or they're in an even worse position. If they lose there, they lose not only the capital, but the heartland.

I'm pretty much certain the Massalian leadership will have escaped by sea in that scenario... but there to? If Hannibal starts his campaign bu succesfully taking the Pillars of Herakles, escape to the Atlantic will be extremely difficult. The Balearics, then? A coastal city in eastern Iberia? Those would be the only options, the former being perfectly defensible by the superior navy... but a very measly domain to control while the enemy does his best to conquer all your other lands.

I don't think Rome or Carthage could just gobble up the League, but if the city falls (and is not rapidly saved), the heartland falls. And if the heartland falls, the League is done fore. The furthet-out colonies will stay beyond the enemy's reach, but you can bet they'll all go independent before long. Just like the client peoples. Essentially, I think the League is in grave danger, facing extremely capable enemies, and I do not believe it is unrealistic to consider doom scenarios.

Although I actually expect that if such a scenario plays out, the League forces will succesfully save the heartland - possibly by laying siege to their own occupied capital while also blockading it from the sea. The end result would be that the League has to sacrifice (most of) Iberia and (their portion of) Sicily to the enemy. Time will tell if my estimation of the situation is even slightly correct. It's certainly quite a vexing time for the League, and - judging by the discussion - very exciting for the people following the TL. @Sersor has us on the tips of our seats.

According to the data @Sersor gave, Massaliote manpower is slightly more than what Rome had at the outset of the Second Punic War, just counting Southern Gaul and immediate whereabouts, and the troops are probably somewhat more reliable (at first) since Massalia seems better than Rome at this integration thing. In the Second Punic War, Rome had a serious issues of Italian cities defecting to Hannibal that impacted their available recruiting pool significantly.
Massalia will have comparable problems in Iberia, but the area is much more recently integrating and I'd suppose they are not counting much on forces from there anyway.
If Rome IOTL could consistently field forces in Italy, Spain, and, at times, Gaul, Sicily, the Balkans and Africa as well, I suppose that Massalia may be able to gather forces to fight on multiple theatres as well (at the very least to the same degree its enemies can, perhaps more). Now, using those forces effectively is another matter, and the opposing alliance is graced with two exceptionally gifted commanders... Numbers and logistics are very important, but bad generalship, bad diplomacy, bad strategic thinking can nullify both (and Massalia already displayed some of the latter two - let's see if they have good commanders and can find better better diplomats).

 

[Falecius]

snip

Of course, I agree that the League is facing a dangerous crisis. Both Carthage and Rome are weaker than what they were IOTL at the time of their own mutual epic clash, and Massalia seems to me slightly stronger overall than Rome was when facing Hannibal - but they are indeed, as you say, facing strong, capable and very dangerous enemies. Rome and Carthage are probably better led, which may offset their numerical inferiority. Also, the ability of Megale Hellas to engage the Romans on its own is probably gone (if they are ever restored, that probably would be as Massaliote vassals or League members), and this damages the Massaliote position considerably.

 

[Sersor]

Thank you all for your participation/comments. I really enjoy all the analysis. It really helps making this ATL to be more alive.

According to the maps seen until now, the League does not control the Alpine passes on either end, leaving the entire Western Alps massif to Celto-Ligurian tribes they do not appear to have ever bothered with (though I'd bet they've been trading with Massalia quite a lot).

true.

Historically, these people were fiercely independent and it took the Romans until Augustus (while controlling both ends of the passes) to subdue them. Who these people regard as the bigger threat or the easier plundering ground would determine if they oppose Scipio, leave him alone, or flock under his banners (if they bear some grudge with the League or feel menaced by it).
If they enter some in deal with the League, they might make Scipio's life very unpleasant.

Valid points. it is not granted that these tribes will help Rome.

Too be fair, IOTL before Hannibal the Western Alps were generally considered impassable to a major army - that's part of why Hannibal's endeavour generated such a clamor.

This.

Massilia has had somewhat less troublesome relations with their immediate allies, so that might not be the same aim.

Exactly. Massalia territories besides ofc some large parts of Iberia are quite stable.

At this point in time, Massalia has clear naval supremacy.

True. At the moment the League has more than 200 warships in the Med and more than 80 in the Atlantic and Rome and Carthage have less than 80 combined.

one will have to go overland. And an unprecedented attack through the Alps is of course not something the Massalian League would expect. No-one expected that in OTL before it happened.

This.

But I get the impression that Massalia figured there would be more time. They were caught up in Iberia, and their line of thought appears to have been: let's wrap this up, remove the barcid threat, and then we can focus on Rome etc.

More or less.

So no, I don't think Massalia has been beyond stupid. Rather: realistically blinded by preconceived notions, as all powers have been at some point in history. I like the realism of that.

I believe the same.

I actually hope that the city of Massalia itself gets caught unprepared and gets captured by the Romans.If the Massaliots make the blunder of leaving the Alpine passes unguarded,they should pay the price for it for realism's sake.Maybe that's where our citadel and twin walls are gonna come from after the war .

Of course,whether losing the city of Massalia means endgame for the Massaliots is a totally different question.

Lets see what happens!

Also note that between Hannibal and Massinissa, on one side, and the Massaliot African holdings, on the other, there were historically the Berber kingdoms of Mauretania and East Numidia (under Massinissa's enemy Syphax IOTL). While the area is certainy changed ITTL, state formation is likely to have taken place here too. Lixus and Tingis are a long and relatively hard way from Carthage or even Cirta (it its likely pre-Barcid westernmost outpost IOTL and would-be Massinissa's capital).

Yes the Berber kingdom are in this ATL also. But i dont think they will play any role in the conflict(maybe some Mercenaries for both sides?)

Maybe that's where our citadel and twin walls are gonna come from after the war .

Yes indeed! If Massalia survives, this is quite possible.

It would be realistic for the city to fall, especially if Hannibal and Scipio are smart about their timing. (And considering who we're talking about, they will be smart about their timing.) Hannibal strikes in Iberia, forcing Massalia to dedicate the vast bulk of its armies there... and then Scipio goes for Massalia itself.

The big advance of Rome and Carthage are this two generals. The League is richer, has better tech and bigger manpool than them. On the other side the League is over extended.

As long as the leadership escapes,which I do think there's plenty of time for them to do considering they will have access to the sea not to mention have enough ships to evacuate a lot of people,they should be able to rendezvous to a place like Tolosa and re-establish government

Plausible scenario.

Massalia isn't unable to call upon its vassals and levy new troops in the case they are attacked, and there won't be any chance in hell that there will be no troops in the heartland

Valid point. The league pool is quite big. Especially in the heart land were all the major polis are(Massalia,Tolosa and Emporion).

 

[Sersor]

Iberia may be under Carthaginian threat, but that is where the best trained Massalian troops are, the most veteran - and they now know the peninsula intimately. Hannibal has some memory, but not the same as those men. Unless Hannibal manages to turn a large number of Celtiberians to his side (and fast), the Massalian fleet is going to leave him isolated in Iberia. Sounds oddly familiar. Sadly this time he has the chance that any political rivals could use his isolation in Iberia to take over.

True.

Another thing is that we have no idea about the league's attitude towards the army.Even the Romans were extremely reluctant to garrison troops within Rome

At the moment there are two tagmata (one in Tolosa and one in Massalia). Up to a point you can say its similar with Rome OTL. This tagmata are mainly made by citizens/ex veterans (and their sons?) that have lands in that areas.

As soon as the mountain streams become unsuitable for further carriage of goods uphill, they have to either give up or switch to donkey pack trains. The profit evaporates fast that way. At some point the economic hegemony of even the queen city of the League gives out, and communication and general knowledge of the highlands is a matter of casual curiosity and possible kinship ties, among the Gauls, maybe. Forget trading over the Alpine ridge line.

True.

Remember that the Romans and Massaliotes have very different mindsets. The League Army is an auxiliary of League policy; advancement in League society is mainly through wealth or scholarship; insofar as they are warlike it is more a matter of derring-do at sea combined with clever schemes to outflank unfriendly peoples on land in a combination of chess moves that might last generations and foxy tactics. The regular armies have indeed evolved a solid professionalism, but the point here is that they are the tail, politically speaking, not the dog.

True to a point about Massalia. The last years and especially after the conquest of Iberia, the Massaliotes are starting to have a more imperialistic approach of things. Both companies/political parties are pushing in this direction.

Observing that there has been no discussion whatsoever of relations with the Alpine dwellers, I'd conclude no news is good news; the mountaineers have no quarrel with Massalia and the League people have no quarrel with them. To Massalia, the Alps might as well be the Himalayas; they form the natural eastern edge of their world on the Continent, and so centuries ago they figured the matter was settled. And it was, as long as in the potentially rich but backward and rustic upper Po valley beyond, archaic Gauls rusticated and quarreled among each other there.

I couldn't say it better.

If the Romans thought like Massaliote League people, the Alps would remain forever their natural dividing line, each secure in the knowledge the other has no profit in changing the status quo. Each could rationally leave the other in peace and concentrate ambitions in other directions, indeed become natural allies.

But when the Romans look at ranges like the Apennines or even the Alps, they don't see natural divisions of the world for all time. They aren't thinking how the economic losses will eat up potential profits. They are looking at paths for legions to march over. To be sure, legions need supply trains; these will be impeded. But a quick march uphill will take them to the passes in the ridge line, and from there their way is clear, the slope giving them the fighting advantage. Men on foot, and horses proceeding carefully, can go where pack trains are quite unprofitable.

I agree.

Your observation that the League has been stupidly complacent is correct, but you are informed by a mentality that the victorious Romans of OTL have established as conventional.

Well said. This is not OTL.

I'm pretty sure that someone in the League has been watching these developments with some alarm, and the suggestion has been raised to fortify the ridge line. Raised, considered, and on the whole rejected, because underscoring the League's basically profit-oriented mentality is just enough strategic thinking to suggest that is better not to provoke the Romans in their own lairs. But on the other hand, the minority report is not totally neglected either. Without the support of heavy League resources, some forward-thinking leaders must be taking some measures. Remember that the actual Alpine lands are not under League control; they are independent mountain folk, poor and peripheral. But from their point of view Massalia is a good neighbor; trade does go on, in their haphazard hands, serving their rustic needs pretty well. They have the donkeys and mules. And they occupy the highlands. Friends from the League no doubt have arrived to negotiate with them, offering small subsidies to keep a lookout and maintain some force handy. When the Romans occupy the upper Po, the hill folk will still trade with their accustomed partners in the lowlands. They will observe and report Roman activity. When Rome musters the Legions and marches them toward the mountains, someone in the League will get reports. When they march to the passes, it won't be total surprise. It might be effective surprise if the League leadership refuses to take proper alarm and prepare defenses to be sure!

Yeap. The league have rather good relations with the Alpine tribes. As you said: When they march to the passes, it won't be total surprise. Besides it's not like there is not any League fortifications in that area. There is not any solid defence/fortifications but there are few small garrisons in the area(protecting the trade routes etc)

But in their turn, if the Massaliotes have misgauged the Romans, I doubt the Romans have taken the proper measure of the League either

Good point.

After such an epic struggle, the League may indeed be badly beaten back on all fronts; striving to defend the most vital conquests in the north of Iberia while the Carthaginians surge forth to take back most of the peninsula and the North African lands to the south. At sea, perhaps Carthage can muster some fleets that cost the League some islands. In the north free Gaulish tribes long suspicious of League ambitions might join forces with risings of disgruntled subjects of League hegemony and turn on stauncher League allies there, menacing even the southern heartlands and the vital Saone-Rhone river axis. Distant colonies in the far northern seas might suffer twice, from a desperate call for help leaving skeleton garrisons behind (or even total abandonment of some sites) and those few remaining defenders finding themselves encircled by emboldened rivals, or having to cut disadvantageous deals with local warlords for protection.

But step at a time, I think the League bounces back. With Rome penned up in Italy, the League can rebuild and extend its Mediterranean navy and recover lost bases; demographically I think the League would far outnumber Carthage. If the League made enemies in Iberia who are now aligned with Carthage, I bet they also made some friends. Iberia might take a while to take back but with the core regions secured, it is just a matter of time. Revolts against Roman rule in Italy may for the first time find substantial League forces ready to land and assist them. Or they might once again call on Epirus, but this time the League very seriously coordinates so as to put the Romans on the ropes and keep them busy on other fronts. With the League and its Alpine tribal allies (who may or may not be invited into the League as formal members at this point) holding the ridge line, a diversionary League army invading the upper Po and challenging the Romans to either fight them or be swept from the valley could be a severe distraction for Rome. In the north, organized League forces can march forth in modest numbers to reinforce their allies, stabilize the frontier and reassert stronger control over the river route, and possibly make new inroads among the divided Celts there. In the far north--the rise of new warlords taking advantage could turn into new opportunities for League traders as the new kings consolidate larger territories and thus open up wider markets. A southern Brittanic or Baltic king (or queen, in Britain) could actually become a useful ally who might even offer auxiliary mercenary forces for the League to hire for southern operations. It might be very humorous, some decades or generations hence, to have a contingent of Baltic Goths in on the kill when Rome falls to a League expedition.

Nice ideas.

But in so doing the Romans will misunderstand the nature of League power and solidarity and figure that a supreme effort to take Massalia will break it, and in this they are mistaken

Yes well said. I think the same.

As for fear of standing armies--well, again League society is different. The armies are a mix of called-up citizens (of various origins, I assume, with Gaulish units mixed in among Greeks) and mercenaries, heavy on the former. The soldiers probably mostly plan to go home once their service is up. In an emergency I think the Massliote citizens can trust them better than typical Hellenistic era populaces could.

The league have a standing army of two tagmata and couple of thousands mercenaries under companies control. For the rest is more or less like you said. Ofc there is always people that wants to go to an expedition war to gain spoils and citizenship(mostly Gauls). At the moment there is 4 tagmata in Sicily two in Iberia plus two in the heartlands.

According to the data @Sersor gave, Massaliote manpower is slightly more than what Rome had at the outset of the Second Punic War, just counting Southern Gaul and immediate whereabouts, and the troops are probably somewhat more reliable (at first) since Massalia seems better than Rome at this integration thing.

Yes the league has a big manpool.

Massalia will have comparable problems in Iberia, but the area is much more recently integrating and I'd suppose they are not counting much on forces from there anyway.
If Rome IOTL could consistently field forces in Italy, Spain, and, at times, Gaul, Sicily, the Balkans and Africa as well, I suppose that Massalia may be able to gather forces to fight on multiple theatres as well (at the very least to the same degree its enemies can, perhaps more). Now, using those forces effectively is another matter, and the opposing alliance is graced with two exceptionally gifted commanders... Numbers and logistics are very important, but bad generalship, bad diplomacy, bad strategic thinking can nullify both (and Massalia already displayed some of the latter two - let's see if they have good commanders and can find better better diplomats).

Valid points. Massalia is quite strong and a major player of the era. The have the money,the navy and the manpool to support multiple theatrers. So let's see if they have good commanders and strategy.

Half the peoples the League has faced over its history have been enemies and treated severely when beaten. But the other half have been the former enemies of those the League takes down, and have been recruited into League society for a share of spoils. They are the ones whose descendants are still around with their old identity, more or less, and that identity includes membership, hence loyalty. That's my theory anyway! Most of the losers have long been assimilated into the lower levels of winner societies, and by now perhaps some individuals have risen high--only the most recent victims are still hanging around with both desire and possible means of vengeance still hot among them.

Its like that more or less.

These Goths don't come from Eastern Europe, they come from Scandinavia. Specifically southeast modern Sweden, notably in Östergötland and on the Bothnian island of Gotland. Wikipedia cites Pliny quoting Pytheas of Massalia mentioning the "Gutones." In this period they founded some colonies on the European mainland that drifted south gradually and wound up in Ukraine where Ulfias found them and converted that bunch to Arian Christianity, obviously many centuries hence. Obviously that particular branch of them doesn't exist yet and most likely won't, with the course of history in the Baltic region being heavily butterflied. But their ancestral people are up in OTL Sweden all right. I was suggesting a Baltic overlord of some extraction or other cobbles together a precocious kingdom, accelerated by extra levels of Mediterranean trade, puts a squeeze play on the Yperboria colony to further leverage power, and over the years a working relationship between Massaliotes and this northern empire develops. Perhaps the dynasty is Gothic, or Goths enlist as mercenaries for money and adventure and opportunity.

No particular reason to single them out; Boreal mercenaries can be from any number of peoples. I just thought it would be humorous but while there might be controversies about the details of Gothic history, there is no need to doubt some recognizable ancestral form of them exists already by this date, in the Baltic region though admittedly not elsewhere--yet!

I'm talking about something that might happen centuries hence of course, not tomorrow.

Thats something i was thinking some days ago. With heavy Greek presence in England,Baltic etc for more than 60 years now and couple of centuries before the contact with romans(in OTL)i presume that the butterflies will be huge in this areas. Small confederations and kingdoms similar to that of Gauls(before roman conquest in OTL) are quite possible in the future. Not in the next 10-20 years but not in hundreds of years in the future.

I think people might underestimate how many soldiers a decent offensive in Iberia would demand. Lots of previously Barcid territories might not want to be Massalian at all, and welcome Hannibal as their liberating overlord. This is no march on Rome through hostile territory: this is the return of the king. He can, at least, play it up like that. Then there's the other Iberian peoples, many of whom are actively resisting Massalia. All Hannibal has to do is offer them independence and status as honoured allies (plausible, since the Barcids never subjegated them) and they'll flock to his banners. Then there's Sicily, which also has to be defended.

Nice points! Although Hannibal was kind of "Democratic" in OTL and this ATL, the return of the king sounds nice

@Sersor has us on the tips of our seats.

Massalia will have comparable problems in Iberia, but the area is much more recently integrating and I'd suppose they are not counting much on forces from there anyway.

Yeap true.

 

[James XI]

At this point in time, Massalia has clear naval supremacy. If one wants to launch a dramatic attack on the capital, one will have to go overland. And an unprecedented attack through the Alps is of course not something the Massalian League would expect. No-one expected that in OTL before it happened. Of course, as soon as Rome grabbed Cisalpine Gaul, Massalia should have started fortifying all passes. But I get the impression that Massalia figured there would be more time. They were caught up in Iberia, and their line of thought appears to have been: let's wrap this up, remove the barcid threat, and then we can focus on Rome etc.

But then Iberia proved very hard to govern. From the Massalian perspective, this was unexpected. Their regime is integrationist, and that has worked for them repeatedly. This kind of resistance was something they never counted on. (Stupid in hindsight, but understanable from their perspective). They also didn't expect Hannibal to take charge in Carthage, and Carthage to thus replace the Barcid kingdom as a potential rival in the south.

So no, I don't think Massalia has been beyond stupid. Rather: realistically blinded by preconceived notions, as all powers have been at some point in history. I like the realism of that.

Yes, Hannibal and the Alps, Lawrence and the Nefud, the Germans and the Ardennes...military history is full of brilliance displayed by taking the 'impassible' path...at which point it is proven passable and hence retroactively seems undefended. Consider the Massilians general who is having to justify the constant expenditure of guarding against a Martian landing (almost) equivalent that could be used elsewhere in actually understood areas of need.

All that said, I do feel it's a (somewhat mitigated) error because of sheer proximity to your capitalmand the fact that the Alpine Gallic tribes were often known to launch minor forays into the lowlands. Additionally there ought to be a significant force to offset the somewhat more navigable coastline approach and/or a relatively short amphibious hop. So, I can generally agree on 'understandable gaffe'...might have even been advisable to have the Massilians of yesteryear be more vigilant that way but gradually relaxing their guard as experience taught them that the Alps/Alpine tribes were a reliable back wall. Maybe have the occasional voice in the wilderness warning about the back door being left open being laughed off or similar.

 

[James XI]

He cannot completely do that unless his army can walk over water. Massalia has ports in Sardinia and Corsica as safe havens for its fleet (and Cornwall too).

True, though the analogy holds...there was a Persian fleet in the eastern Med which did hold and even capture several island harbours...even some along the mainland Ionian coast...but after Memnon's death the campaign still withered on the vine, island ports being somewhat limited in crucial supplies and more prone to weather attrition...particularly around Sardinia/Sicily, for every fleet sunk in battle there seems to have been 3 go down to a sudden storm. But nevertheless I agree it couldn't be entirely completed by land.

 

[James XI]

I have to say, people are probably sounding the "Doom Massalia" card a bit early - remember what happened to Hannibal crossing the Alps? He was basically reduced to a force that didn't really have a chance to take Rome. Massalia isn't unable to call upon its vassals and levy new troops in the case they are attacked, and there won't be any chance in hell that there will be no troops in the heartland, or that the city can be reasonably besieged. Assaulted, perhaps - and that will be incredibly costly for an army that has already crossed the Alps in the first place! At least Rome could be besieged and starved out!

Iberia may be under Carthaginian threat, but that is where the best trained Massalian troops are, the most veteran - and they now know the peninsula intimately. Hannibal has some memory, but not the same as those men. Unless Hannibal manages to turn a large number of Celtiberians to his side (and fast), the Massalian fleet is going to leave him isolated in Iberia. Sounds oddly familiar. Sadly this time he has the chance that any political rivals could use his isolation in Iberia to take over.

Whilst I can't see it going well for Massalia, Scipios attack is doomed to fail, and Hannibal might well be left on his own. I'm predicting a very expensive stalemate, for all sides, with Hannibal losing any authority in Carthage, and his reputation destroyed.

Agreed in part, though there is a crucial difference...Rome's domain at the time was much more integrous than the Massilian sphere, which is sort of spread out and hanging open in many directions. The limitations of the Italian peninsula and Alps meant that Rome could really focus on Hannbal, wherever he was, and only divert forces elsewhere in the event of a specific crisis. This is crucially demonstrated in the Battle of Metaurus, where having Hannibal's threat geographically fixed and additionally having fairly limited approaches Hasdrubal could take allowed the Romans to concentrate at the key moment. If the approaches were as constant and wide open as Massilia faces, there would be much more need to pick your poisonous options...a strategy that probably ought to cost if sustained long enough.

 

[James XI]

About Hannibal in OTL,what stopped him from taking Rome was the amount of Roman soldiers between him and Rome,not to mention even with his army being largely depleted by the march through the Alps,he was able to fight field battles repeatedly against the Romans.If Hannibal makes it across the Straits of Gibraltar in this timeline,he will likely tie up a significant portion of the League's troops.A portion of the league's troops has also been deployed to Sicily.So if the Massaliots never expected the Romans to cross the Alps,things would be very bad for them.The capital would be left utterly defenseless.

Not so much between he and Rome, at least not after Cannae, when the path appears to have been fairly open. The threat was that as long as enough Allies held firm, Rome could essentially conjur up armies from the various reaches of their influence. That presented Hannibal with the danger of one of the cardinal sins of warfare; being caught besieging a fixed position with enemy armies in the field. What he might have possibly done was similar to Napoleon's use of Mantua as bait to force anther decisive engagement or 4, but in his defense Rome itself presented a much greater threat to his rear as he marched out to engage relief forces and armies of his day could not transition from besieging to engaging in the field nearly as quickly. Also it might have been increasingly felt that Rome just didn't respond to decisive engagements as other states do, so unless he could pry away enough allies it might have become a more obviously Pyrrhic campaign.

 

[Sersor]

209 BC

The great Punic Latin war

Iberia theatre

Hannibal rushed for the pillars of hercules with the main part of his forces(twenty five thousands). The rest of his army(ten thousands, of which five thousands were new Berber mercenaries) conquered easily the League’s African holdings and the nomes capital Lixus. In a small naval battle in the straits of Hercules, the small fleet of hannibal(20 quinqueremes) caught by surprise the few Leagues warships stationed there. With the straits under his control Hannibal crossed with his army from Africa to Iberia. From there Hannibal rushed to reach Gadir/Barcid kingdom were he was seen as a liberator.
In the meantime in Naucratia a Massaliot League fleet with an expedition force was assembled, under Dynatoi company efforts, to sail in Iberia to protect the Pillars and the League’s holdings there. The fleet was composed by forty venemeres and several transport ships.The army was composed by 3 tagmata and five thousands merceneries* a total of around twenty two thousands. Its commanders, Parmenion and Gobanitix were surprised that Hannibal had crossed the pillars and rushed to sail fast.

*Imanuentius, the young chief/king of the Trinovantes tribe, was heavily influenced by the Greeks and was really curious to see the “mythical”/great city of Massalia. So together with two thousands of his troops, decided to help the League as mercenaries/allies. They marched to Kassiteia and from there with transport ships, provided by Dynatoi company, reached Naucratia. Trinovantes tribe was one of the major tribes in Britain (both in OTL and in this ATL). Their previous king Mandubracius had establish good relations with the League colonies in the area and was their major trade partner for trade in South-East Britain. The influence of the Greeks were tremendous. Infact Mandubracius even had a greek tudor for his children’s.

South Italy theatre

With Sicily and control of the seas secure, Massaliot league and Megale hellas league marched to south Italy to liberate the greek cities. After some small sieges they liberated Regium and Locri. Shortly after the liberation of Locrii an expedition force of ten thousands Spartans under Philopoemen joined them there. Meanwhile the roman army in south Italy under consul Flaccus, marched from Heraclea to meet them.

North Italy theatre

Scipio with an army of forty thousands(mostly sochi legions) marched all the way up to Cremona. From there he crossed the Alps, surmounting the difficulties of climate and terrain,and the guerrilla tactics of the friendly to the League native tribes. Scipio arrived with thirty one thousands infantry, four thousands cavalry in the territory of the ex Allobroges lands near Rhone river. While this crossing was expected by the League,after reports from friendly tribes in the Alps , they had not anticipated such an early arrival and their new tagmata were still in preparation mode. Scipio’s crossing of the alps, was considered one of the greatest achievements in military logistics, as he did so through hostile territory in late autumn with minimal supply lines. His surprise entry into South Gaul led to the termination of Leagues main intended thrust, an invasion of Rome.

• Twenty League’s quinqueremes, based in Aleria in Corsica, loaded with one thousands soldiers, raided constantly the coasts in central /west Italy( from Populonia to Tarquinii.)

By place:

Asia minor

• In exchange for a peace with Pergamon and Rhodes League, Ptolemy was forced to lose his territories on the south coast of modern day Turkey.

Central Asia

• Modun khaan inherits Teoman's Hunnu confederations and founds the Xiongnu Empire. Modu's forces push into Northern China, threatening the Qin Empire and forcing them to further fortify the Great Wall.

 

[WotanArgead]

I that's what I thought - because Rome is actually on all sides surrounded by Hellenes and their allies, there must be a strong anti-Greek sentiment (in OTL in spite of a certain influence on the culture, the Greeks lived not sweet, Hellenism triumphed only under Hadrian)

 

[Aishio]

I except to see the League allying with the Numidians against Carthage. What about Epirus??? Please don't tell me their good times are over!

 

[Sersor]

I except to see the League allying with the Numidians against Carthage. What about Epirus??? Please don't tell me their good times are over!

in 212 BC Epirus lost a war against a coalition of Ptolemaic Empire,Sparta,Athens but its still a decent power. Ill make a map update in the next few years.

 

[Achaemenid Rome]

Good map, but the city of Rome appears to be in the wrong place.

 

[Sersor]

Good map, but the city of Rome appears to be in the wrong place.

Thank you! You are right about Rome, is slightly more south. I usually check where is everything on the map i am making,but i made this map really fast.Never the less its a minor detail.

 

[Skallagrim]

Thank you! You are right about Rome, is slight more south. I usually check where is everything on the map i am making,but i made this map really fast. Never the less its a minor detail.

DON'T LET THE ROMANS HEAR YOU SAY THAT!