The Massaliot league. A Hellenistic period Massalia Timeline

[darthfanta]

I love how this timeline really leads to such in-depth analysis. Your arguments are very compelling, @Shevek23! I think you are right, although I must caution against a sort of 'determinism'. What Rome was like in OTL is not by definition what it is like in TTL. What really matters is how strong they are at the moment. What will a war with Massalia do to them? At this moment, I don't see them winning. I don't see them going south (to Megale Hellas) first, either. They will want Cisalpine Gaul, because if Massalia grabs it first, that's even more of a threat to Rome than Rome having it would be to Massalia. My initial thinking was that Massalia can fortify the mountain range and thus be pretty safe from overland attack, even if Roman territory is nearby. (But it seems I was wrong to brush off such corncerns so quickly.)

It remains my thinking that a war with Massalia is not really in Rome's interest. Nor in Massalia's! Say... would it be an option for both Rome and Massalia to guarantee the independence of the Cisalpine Gauls? To turn the area into a neutral buffer state they can both trade with, but which both solemnly vow not to occupy? It would be tricky to arrange, but it would avoid a very costly war that neither side can afford. And its exactly what the local Gaulish population want, of course.

In such a case, I still think the rest of my scenario is plausible. We must not underestimate the value of the east. Rome could gain a lot there, and even if they headed west first in OTL, I again urge against determinism. If there's something to gain in the east, they might just take that opportunity. It's a cost-benefit thing. Sure, they'd gain a lot if they could subdue Massalia and capture its riches. If. It's a huge rist, they might not want to take.

Regarding the Ptolemaic Empire being set against the Romans adventuring in the east: initially, they'd be able to gain from allying with Rome and dismantling Epirus, Sparta, Rhodes, Megale Hellas etc. In the long term, they might become a target themselves, but it would hardly be unusual for a ruler to accept such a distant future risk in exchange for vast benefits in the immediate future.

Final note: messing with Megale Hellas might indeed incur the wrath of Massalia. If I were Roman, that would be a prime reason to secure the cooperation of Ptolemaic Egypt (also vaguely allied to Massalia) to make League neutrality more likely. Also... I'd wait until the inevitable moment when massalia gets into a war with the Barcids (because both are making inroads in Iberia, they'll soon come to a clash). They'd be distracted. Perfect moment to scoop up Megale Hellas.

All my thinking here goes towards the idea that a Roman-Massalian war would be extremely costly at best, and devestating at worst. I really think both sides would know that, and try to avoid that war. At least for the moment.

More dialogue would do some good.A detente and an agreement not to station troops or to occupy Cisalpine Gauls is most certainly on the tables.Though to be honest,I don't think the Romans are in the same league as the Massaliots for them to be considered equals.I would imagine the Massaliots right now would have both a massive manpower pool and more than enough money to outfight the Romans.If the Romans get obstinate and still try to occupy Cisalpine Gaul,it will probably be automatically considered an act of aggression.Even if the Alps is fortified,the strategic balance would be threatened.With the Roman border so close to the capital,the Romans might not necessarily attack from just the Alps,but perhaps from the neighboring seas as well.If you lose the Alpine defensive line,the Massaliots are massively screwed.

 

[Sersor]

231 BC

An expedition of two tagmata under strategos Hermolaos, sponsored by palaioi company, went South of Emporion nomes to conquer the lands of the aggressive tribes of Llercavones and Edetani.

By place:

Bosporus kingdom/ Pergamon

• A new trade deal is signed between Pergamon and Bosporus kingdom. From now own Pergamon will take most of its grain from Bosporus kingdom. Bosporus the last years had lost(from Ptolemaic empire*) in the face of Athens, one of the most profitable and reliable buyers of the bulk wheat.This new deal boosted significantly the economy of Bosporus kingdom.

*In 235 BC a Bosporus Embassy visited Egypt and led in Alexandria some negotiations with the king Ptolemy III. In these negotiations, it raised the issue of delimitation of spheres of influence in the grain trade between Egypt and the Aegean Sea to the Bosporus markets. The results of this meeting were bad for Bosporus…

Inside infos about Bosporus kingdom:

Spartocids, following the example of the Hellenistic monarchs called themselves kings of the Bosporus state.Class foundation Spartocids were primarily wealthy merchants and landowners and industrialists - the owners of large ergasteria (industrial workshops). In all these groups/class, which consisted primarily of Greeks, poured gradually increasing number of representatives of the upper social strata of the local population from the barbarian tribes that were part of the Bosporus state.

Ps: Many thanks to @WotanArgead for his infos about Bosporus kingdom

India

A major succession war started in India after the death of emperor Ashoka.
The main rivals were Dasharatha(Heir and grandson of Ashoka) and Sampati(grandson and second heir).
Jalauka : Uncle of Dasharatha who declared independence.
Sophagasenus: Ex governor who declared independence
Kalinga : Kingdom that was conquered by Ashoka and now declared independence.
Satavahana: Client state that now declared independence.
Vidarbha: Client state that now declared independence

 

[Sersor]

I would imagine the Massaliots right now would have both a massive manpower pool and more than enough money to outfight the Romans

Yes they have bigger manpower pool and way more money than Rome. Nevertheless Roman manpower pool is still quite big.

 

[darthfanta]

I also have to imagine that the present Roman military system would be quite obsolete.Now that stirrups are here,the legions are obsolete.The side with the bigger cavalry force has a decisive edge over their opponent.Given the amount of battles the Massaliots have been fighting,did they put a greater emphasis on cavalry and develop newer,better cavalry tactics?

 

[Sersor]

I also have to imagine that the present Roman military system would be quite obsolete.Now that stirrups are here,the legions are obsolete.The side with the bigger cavalry force has a decisive edge over their opponent.

True very true. But its a new tech and would take some years to be fully adapt by the League. Nevertheless armies will change dramatically in the close future. Any predictions of the new army composition?

 

[darthfanta]

True very true. But its a new tech and would take some years to be fully adapt by the League. Nevertheless armies will change dramatically in the close future. Any predictions of the new army composition?

1/3 cavalry as a recommended doctrine most likely.I also presume everyone would be bringing the long pikes out of the storage facilities.The current legion like troops will most likely be placed on the flanks,and the will most likely drop the gladius in favor of longer swords with the spear being the main armament.Depending on how effective the crossbows are,there might be 1/3 cavalry,1/3 infantry,1/3 skirmisher armies.

 

[Zireael]

It remains my thinking that a war with Massalia is not really in Rome's interest. Nor in Massalia's! Say... would it be an option for both Rome and Massalia to guarantee the independence of the Cisalpine Gauls? To turn the area into a neutral buffer state they can both trade with, but which both solemnly vow not to occupy? It would be tricky to arrange, but it would avoid a very costly war that neither side can afford. And its exactly what the local Gaulish population want, of course.

Sounds like a neat idea, but how would they do it?

 

[darthfanta]

Sounds like a neat idea, but how would they do it?

I'd presume there will be some rounds of dick-waving and skirmishes before a detente is reached over Cisalpine Gaul with a mutual guarantee of the region to be demilitarized(by the Romans and the Massaliots).If anything,the war with Pyrrhus should have taught the Romans humility and that they are not invincible.The Massaliots may also be distracted elsewhere incidentally during the crisis and don't want a full scale war at the time.

 

[pjmidd]

True very true. But its a new tech and would take some years to be fully adapt by the League. Nevertheless armies will change dramatically in the close future. Any predictions of the new army composition?

With the stirrup ( and proper war saddle as stirrup alone does not let you use couched lance properly) , what you get is a split in armies. Those that fight in open terrain mainly go to about 1/4-1/3 horse with pike/spear ( bills and halberds tend to be developed as well ) and missile troops the main infantry. Those that fight in rough terrain and mountains mainly don't tend to increase the horse. Remember horses are expensive compared to men so only used with a clear advantage. Pure cavalry armies only exist in steepe/semi desert where maneuver is king.

 

[Aishio]

Weird I did not receive notifications on the new messages but well glad you did some really awesome updates. Epirus is starting to fade away :-( Some gallic chieftain who grew up in Massalia may rise to be a thorn on their side by cleverly ambushing and destroying/capturing armies (and more importantly, the artillery train that they bring).

 

[Sersor]

With the stirrup ( and proper war saddle as stirrup alone does not let you use couched lance properly)

Yes i already mention that Archimedes made a stirrup-saddle combo. This tech is still rather new for Massaliot League and it will take some time to affect the army composition.

 

[Sersor]

230 BC

The Barcid war

After some small battles the Massaliot League forces manages to conquer the lands of Llercavones and Edetani tribes. Hearing rumours that the league will march against Barcid kingdom( and loose the precious silver mines of Mastia/ Carthago Nova) Hasdrubal the Fair allied himself with Celtiberi and Carpetani tribes and marched against Massaliot league.

By place

Rome

• With Roman merchants being killed by Samnite pirates, envoys are sent by Rome to the Samnites . After the Roman ambassadors lucius Coruncanius and Fabius Rullianus are murdered by Samnite soldiers after causing offence to king Gavius Egnatius, Roman forces mobilised with the aim of humbling Gavius Egnatius.

Illyria

• King Agron of Illyria dies. Pinnes, the son of Agron and Agron's first wife Triteuta, officially succeeds his father as king, but the kingdom is effectively ruled by Agron's second wife, Queen Teuta (Tefta), who expels the Greeks from the Illyrian coast and then launches Illyrian pirate ships into the Ionian Sea, preying on Greek shipping. She continues her husband's policy of attacking cities on the west coast of Greece and practising large-scale piracy in the Adriatic and Ionian Seas.

Egypt

• The Temple of Horus is built by King Ptolemy III.

India

• Jalauka to deal with Sophagasenus asked the help of Diodotus of the Diodotian Kingdom( Greco-Bactrian)

 

[Sersor]

229 BC

Hermolaos forces( roughly twelve thousands ) were caught by surprise when the two armies of Carpetani/Celtiberi( twenty thousands)tribes and Barcid kingdom (thirty five thousands/six thousands cavalry) reach them. Heavily outnumbered the League army suffers a crushing defeat. Seven thousands League soldiers died and another four thousands sold as slaves. Hermolaos was killed during the battle by a young Barcid nobleman(Hasdrubal the Fair,brother-in-law) Hannibal Bacra. Another Barcid mercenary army of five thousands marched from Gadir to conquer Tagus.

By place

Epirus/Illyria

• The First Illyrian War starts when Alexander II of Epirus invades with an army of twenty thousands to Illyria to deal with the piracy. Epirus forces the withdrawal of Illyrian pirate garrisons in the Greek cities of Epidamnus, Apollonia, Corcyra and Pharos and establishes a protectorate over these Greek towns.
• The Illyrian tribe of the Ardiaei is subdued by Alexander II.
• The involvement of Epirus in Illyria leads to strengthen the relations between Epirus and the Aetolian League ( a semi independent vassal of Epirus), which approve the suppression of Illyrian piracy. This was a crucial move that help Alexander II to stabilise his realm.

Rome

• The roman army under consul Centumalus won a major battle against the Samnite army near Asculum. The Samnite king Gavius Egnatius, desperate by this loss asked for help from the Megale Hellas League(an unofficial ally). The Greeks fearing of Roman aggression decide to help Gavius Egnatius.

India

• Jalauka together with Diodotus won a major battle against Sophagasenus(died in the battle).
• In a epic bloodbath, Dasharatha's army is repelled by Samprati's army. More than one hundred thousands soldiers died in that battle.

 

[Aishio]

I can predict Magna Grecia calling Epirus again in the future.... Intelligent tactics of the barcid kingdom (they sound quite familiar to me...) may Hannibal reign over a prosperous Carthago Nova!

 

[Sersor]

228 BC

Barcid must be destroyed!

Hearing the news about Hermolaos, the federal council of Massaliot League furious declare an all out war against the Barcid kingdom. A massive army of eight tagmata(around fifty thousand man) under strategos Diocletos marched from Tolosa to Iberia. Another army of two tagmata(around fifteen thousand man) under strategos Epiktetos sailed with a fifty venemeres strong fleet to protect the Atlantic ocean colonies and attack Barcid Kingdom from behind. The Mediterranean League fleet went to conquer the balearic islands. Meanwhile Hasdrubal the Fair continued preparations to deal with the League. He managed to recruit another ten thousands Numibians mercenaries and send them to sack Lixus, then cross the sea to Iberia. By skillful diplomacy pursued the Celtici,Lussitani and Vetones tribes to join him. He even send emissaries to Carthage, asking to join forces against the common enemy.

• Tagus is burned to the ground by the Barcid forces.
• Arginio is stormed by Hibernian pirates. Around two hundred survivors manage to flee in Kassitia.

By place

Italy

In a battle near Paestum the Roman army(around thirty thousands) was victorious against the Megale Hellas league forces(around twenty five thousands) but in the near by sea battle the Megale Hellas navy repelled easily the Roman fleet. Emissaries send from Megale Hellas to Sparta and Massalia to ask for help. Not wanting to give a further step to Ptolemaic Empire*, Megale Hellas decided to not ask them for help. Plus five thousand Zama mercenaries paid to come to aid also.

*The base of the Ptolemaic Empire in Sicily was a big problem for the trade routes of Megale Hellas.

Illyria/Epirus

• The Illyrian Queen Teuta's governor, Demetrius of Pharos has little alternative but to surrender to the overwhelming Epirus force. In return, the Epirotes award him a considerable part of Teuta's holdings to counter-balance the power of Teuta. Meanwhile, the Epirotes army lands farther north at Apollonia. The combined Epirotes army and fleet proceed northward together, subduing one town after another and besieging Shkodra, the Illyrian capital.

Asia Minor

• King Attalus I Soter of Pergamum defeats Antiochus Hierax in three battles and thereby gains control over all the Hierax domains in Anatolia. The Hierax kingdom lasted only eight years(235 BC-228 BC)

Seleucid empire

• Antiochus II died mysteriously. His son Seleucus II is now the new king.

Ptolemaic empire

• In an expedition south of Egypt, Ptolemy III conquered the lands of the nomadic Nubian tribal kingdom of Blemmyes.

India/Bactria

• In a celebration over the victory against Sophagasenus, Diodotus assassinates Jalauka and several indian nobles/officers thus gained control of both Jalauaka and Sophagasenus realms. The cynical and charismatic Diodotus was now the ruler of a vast empire.

 

[Aishio]

the recent events are surprising indeed.

 

[darthfanta]

So is Hannibal Barca a king right now while Hasdrubal is the regent?

 

[Sersor]

So is Hannibal Barca a king right now while Hasdrubal is the regent?

Yes.

 

[darthfanta]

Yes.

If the Barcids don't get destroyed,things would be quite interesting.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

Barcid must be destroyed!

Hear hear! Those Punic devils must be ruined!

• Arginio is stormed by Hibernian pirates. Around two hundred survivors manage to flee in Kassitia.

Eeesh Hibernian Pirates! *curses* - I wonder when the League is going to get someone to deal with this. Punitive expedition perhaps?

India/Bactria

• In a celebration over the victory against Sophagasenus, Diodotus assassinates Jalauka and several indian nobles/officers thus gained control of both Jalauaka and Sophagasenus realms. The cynical and charismatic Diodotus was now the ruler of a vast empire.

Yiiiiis! Bactria FTW. Won't lie, Bactria is probably my favorite place in the Hellenic World IOTL. How are they going to maintain such a vast empire? The administration of Central Asia, the Hindu Kush, and India are going to have very different needs.