Dang it Massaliot. Show those Gauls the power of the Greeks!
There now, you see, this is the sort of thing I've been worrying about!
It is plausible enough that the Massaliot League is essentially a Hellenic thing, perceived as such by all, with the Gauls within its sphere an underclass. The TL can go forward on that basis.
BUT if it does, the League is currently facing a serious check. The population figures Sersor gives below emphasize my point in that case; within ML territory, its core rather than its vast trade-based sphere of influence in the north, the Greeks are outnumbered. If expansion of ML is equated to Greek superiority, increasing levels of resistance of further Gauls to conquest can be expected, reinforced by the danger of rebellion of the Gaulish majority within the ML core. All Massaliot assets might suddenly turn to liabilities--a rebellion might seize Tolosia and its wealth, cut off the League core from the Atlantic, destabilize their recent seizure of salients in Iberia, etc. Bear in mind that every Massliote campaign we've heard of so far involves large contingents of Gaulish troops! What if these are suddenly on the wrong side?
Then they are exposed to vengeful attacks from Rome and the Carthaginians--even with the latter in two hostile camps, they might pull together if they can see opportunities to savage the League while it is on the ropes.
If this were the case, I'd have expected serious checks much earlier in fact. It would be likely for instance that disgruntled Gaulish soldiers from the League, with experience in Massaliot operations, would flee piecemeal northward and spread knowledge of Massaliot technique to Gauls in the north; then the alliance of Diviciacix would be expected to be more effective, following up on their initial victory to more devastating effect, avoiding being lured to their destruction on Hermolaos's terms. This war might be won by ML in the long run, maybe, but it would be a much later and more costly victory that leaves them vulnerable to their Punic, Latin, and Hellenistic rivals in the south.
The mere fact of trade with the north is helping to spread the most advanced Hellenic technique among the Gauls and other northern European peoples. This is part of what happened to Rome OTL after all.
But--suppose instead the League is not all Greek, that it is instead a hybridization of Greek and Gaulish cultures--as the large numbers of Gauls within it (unless we suppose these are mostly slaves or serfs) suggests. Then the situation is very different. If the Gauls of the League are socially and politically on a rough par with the Greeks, then what the Gauls to the north face is not conquest as a people, but the question of whether their particular tribe is in or out. The patchwork nature of divided Gaulish (and Celtic, and northern tribal generally) society is what gives the League its opportunity to expand. As their influence moves north, there are losers among the natives--but also winners, peoples in effect inducted into League society who develop a stake in it.
This vision of mine of what the League might be is founded in part on romanticism, I admit. It is also less sweet than I might be implying or wishing--huge numbers of people are after all losers, and so even if the society is a hybridized fusion, centers of Gaulish resentment must surely still exist. But if these are offset by a majority of other Gauls who do think of the League as theirs and being for their benefit, they can be held more in check. And the opportunities of expansion by cooptation remain open in the north. Perhaps even among people who aren't Gaulish, or even Celtic, such as the Germanics of the Baltic (or other Baltic peoples); if the society has the generalized idea that ethnicity is not of the essence, mutual alliance for mutual benefit is, there is little reason it can't jump the ethnic "barriers" that otherwise might check it.
As I've gone on about at greater length before and see little reason to repeat except in essence here, it has been ambiguous to me which choice Sersor has made on this crucial point, mainly because of lack of clear evidence that people other than Greeks are involved at the highest levels. There have been a few tokens since, but it remains ambiguous.
But I have been interpreting the very vastness of Massaliote accomplishment, the large swathes of territory being incorporated without apparent fear they have bitten off more than they can chew in terms of governing underclasses, as evidence that League society is a League not only of Greek city-states, but also Gaulish territories that do participate. I choose to believe that some of the unique developments of military technique that help strengthen League armies are in fact Gaulish ideas, that officers and even commanding generals are often of primarily Gaulish identity, that Gauls participate in the Museaon and that such centers of learning exist in Gaulish towns and rising centers that are mixed places where both major ethnicities exist, that intermarriages are taking place at high and low levels of society and a deeply fused streak is developing that is somewhat at home in both worlds (and probably, somewhat uncomfortable in both too).
But if this were all true, I would expect more visible trouble that has not been shown to arise between immigrant "pure" Hellenes and the mixed-up lot who are the heart and genius of the League.
Still it is easier for me to believe these troubles arose but were resolved or anyway papered over in an expanding League, and therefore have not been mentioned, and that we are reading a history that tends to understate the Gaulish contributions, than I can believe that a league that is chauvinistically Hellenic has gotten this far without some nasty reverses.
236 BC Vol II
Extra infos and maps.
The population of Massaliot League have now more than one million population.
The Greeks are close to four hundred thousands , the Gauls more than seven hundred thousands and another one hundred thousands (maybe more) various smaller tribes.
So much easier to believe if the Gauls are mostly not subjects but roughly equal to the Hellenes! Some Gauls clearly are of lower and oppressed orders--all these tens of thousands taken as slaves wind up somewhere, and even if many of them are sold elsewhere in the Mediterranean world (slaves were indeed major exports of non-Mediterranean Europe for over a thousand years past the date we have reached thus far in the ATL, OTL) some of them will be worked right there in the League. But if other Gauls are among the owners, the situation seems much more stable within the League!
Major Polis/cities are:
Massalia, close to three hundred thousands.
Tolosa, around sixty thousands.
Emporium, almost fifty thousands.
Naucratia, around thirty five thousands.
Lillybaeum more than thirty thousands.
I'd be on much more solid ground if this were not a list only of Greek cities, but also included some Gaulish towns as well. One possible bypass is that perhaps Gaulish culture, even adopting many Hellenic elements as these high-class Gauls I believe in surely would, are not as "civic" minded as Romans or Greeks, and tend to spread out more over the land, maintaining smaller towns for a given total population as trade, craft, and political centers.
Even so, some Gaulish towns ought to have grown under Greek influence, or because of circumstantial factors that favor them. And properly speaking, then, a League listing of its great centers would intersperse, or list separately, major allied Gaulish districts. Making them all Greek city-states certainly supports the idea that it is a Hellenistic thing exclusively, and therefore should be running into serious political trouble right about now, if not before.
Naucratia, around thirty five thousands.
Naucratia has always seemed problematic to me. I initially assumed it would in fact be Bordeaux--ancient Burdigala that is--or anyway in the Garrone bay. You've located Naucratia on the bay of Aracachon instead. I've been looking at Google Maps, trying to find the most convenient passage from the Garrone river, which is clearly the pathway most desired from Tolosa to the Atlantic, to that bay, and I conclude that the topography of the region routes all the waters flowing into it, or even to the Adour that reaches the sea to the south at modern Bayonne, run parallel. There is no convenient portage. To reach the bay of Aracachon from Tolosa would involve either building a road and expensively hauling goods overland many kilometers, or even more improbably building a canal (and I think the topography is dead against that) only to put them onto a tiny tributary of L'Eyre river, which is itself just a small stream, and so at last set up a colony on a bay that in OTL has never been a major port. For the obvious reason that Burdigala at the mouth of the Garrone is vastly superior!
At the time way upthread your answer was that the Biturges of Burdigala were allies of the League, and therefore would not welcome being overwhelmed and swamped by thousands of Greek immigrants. But Naucratia on the bay of Aracachon is pretty useless, unless its purpose is to bypass and thus in the long run overwhelm Burdigala. In other words, the plan would be to betray their "ally!"
Whereas it would appear from the latest Gallic War installment that the neighbors of the coastal Biturges were in fact by the time of that war now allied. Burdigala is not mentioned at all.
Meanwhile, when I raised the objection that surely the Carthaginian trade network in the north had the advantage of being long established and would not be easy to sweep aside, I was told "but it has been a long time, by now the Massaliotes have built up their presence and eclipsed the Carthaginians." Well, if it was clear to the latter that the Greeks were horning in, shouldn't there have been a fight before the Greeks could get an upper hand?
If the Burdigalans, whom I gather were not much for seagoing trade on their own behalf, were unfriendly to the Massaliote project because they were happy to trade with Carthaginians or their allies coming to the Garrone estuary from afar, then the plan, I suppose, was to sneak past them, set up a base on the bay of Aracachon, from which to explore and build up a counter-network, and then at some point decisively cut off Carthaginian challenges. The best way to do that would be to descend on hostile Burdigala in force and seize it, and move the Atlantic base from inconvenient Naucratia to the Garrone estuary.
But an even better plan, I'd think, would have been to befriend the Burdigalans, come down the Garrone not with thousands but only hundreds or even just dozens of League traders, set up a small post there as guests of the Celtic town, and gradually expand. The Burdigalans could well welcome the extra trade, and in the context of mutual enrichment waive objections to a new Greek town growing up downstream of them. That town, not one on the backwater bay of Aracachon, would then become Naucratia.
If the Burdigalians were dead against this plan, why regard them as allies? Why not recruit their hostile neighbors as allies instead, invade and seize the city and rebuild it as Naucratia on that basis?
No matter how you approach it, the site you have put Naucratia on is pretty poor, due to poor communications inland.
I can see that the new town means something to you, and you are unwilling to simply move the business to Burdigala one way or another. Which is why I suggest two other paths to found "Naucratia," one peaceful, one aggressive, but either one cutting out a new city on the Garrone mouth where it belongs, bypassing this expensive side trip to the isolated Bay. A third path would be to conquer Burdigala later, and turn it into Naucratia, having named the temporary base on the southern bay something else first.
To simply say, "Naucratia is going great" when it is based on such a dead end body of water just seems crazy. At some point, Burdigala must be dealt with, and then it, not some colony on a bay that is just too cut off from overland contact to be viable.