The Marginal Swing (US Congressional and Presidential Election 2010 + 2012)

starwarsfan

This is my first timeline I have been planning, the premise is that Bin Laden is killed in the beginning of October of 2010 and the economy begins picking up in the the third quarter of 2010 leading to an unemployment of 9.0% instead of 9.8% mainly coming from manufacturing returning to the US. Leading to a different outcome in 2010 and a similar presidential primary going on now but with some twists.

Prologue: The Results of the 2010 Congressional Election

Alabama - Richard Shelby (R-Hold)
Alaska - Joe Miller (R - Hold)
Arizona - John McCain (R - Hold)
Arkansas - Bill Halter (D - Hold)
California - Barbara Boxer (D - Hold)
Colorado - Michael Bennet (D - Hold)
Connecticut - Richard Bluementhal (D - Hold)
Delaware - Chris Coons (D - Hold)
Florida - Charlie Crist (I - Gain)* Caucasus with Democrats Meek endorses Crist in august of 2010
Georgia - Johnny Issakson (R - Hold)
Hawaii - Daniel Inoyue (D - Hold)
Idaho - Mike Crapo (R - Hold)
Illinois - David Hoffman (D-Hold)
Indiana Dan Coats (R-Gain)
Iowa - Chuck Grassley (R-Hold)
Kansas - Sam Brownback (R-Hold)
Kentucky - Daniel Mongiardo (D - Gain)
Louisiana - David Vitter (R - Hold)
Maryland - Barbra Mikulski (D - Hold)
Missouri - Roy Blunt (R - Hold)
Nevada - Harry Reid (D - Hold)
New Hampshire - Kelly Ayotte (R - Hold)
New York - Kirsten Gillibrand (D - Hold)
New York - Chuck Schumer (D - Hold)
North Carolina - Richard Burr (R - Hold)
North Dakota - John Hoeven (R - Gain)
Ohio - Rob Portman (R - Hold)
Oklahoma - Tom Coburn (R - Hold)
Oregon - Ron Wyden (D - Hold)
Pennsylvania - Joe Sestak (D - Hold)
South Carolina - Jim Demint (R - Hold)
South Dakota - John Thune (R - Hold)
Utah - Bob Bennet (R - Hold)
Vermont - Patrick Leahy (D - Hold)
Washington - Patty Murray (D - Hold)
Wisconsin - Russ Feingold (D - Hold)
West Virginia - Joe Manchin (D - Hold)

Democrats Narrowly retain control of the House of Representatives

President Obama Approval 52% RCP Average

Many in the republican establishment try to moderate the party to avoid a tea party candidate winning in the primaries.


Next Update: Prelude to the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primaries
 
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NickCT

even w/ that the Democrats wouldn't make gains and Charlie Crist definitely wouldn't have caucused with the Democrats if he won.

the Tea Party was very strong in 2010 and they electrified the conservative base to get out and vote
 

wargamer6

Bill Halter already lost the Democratic primaries for Arkansas's senate race by Oct 2010. And who is Dave Hoffman? Illinois was Kirk vs Giannoulias..
 

starwarsfan

Hoffman was in the Democratic primary, I had him win, a.s well as Halter. I forgot to mention that, Also looking back I will take back a few of the Democratic gains, but Kentucky and Alaska under could have swung democratic.
Also, Rand losing will have profound effects upon Ron Paul's likelihood of running of third party.

Major differences from the race from OTL is Huntsman has more funding from his father and better fundraising leading to more divided support among moderates.

Iowa Caucas Polling Average
Ron Paul 20.2%
Rick Santorum 19%
Mitt Romney 12.6%
Jon Huntsman 10.2%
Newt Gingrich 10.0%
Rick Perry 5.0%
Michelle Bachmann 4.2%

New Hampshire Primary Polling (Top 4)
Mitt Romney 28.2%
Jon Huntsman 26.4%
Ron Paul 22.3%
Newt Gingrich 11.1%
 
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NickCT

starwarsfan said:
Hoffman was in the Democratic primary, I had him win, a.s well as Halter. I forgot to mention that, Also looking back I will take back a few of the Democratic gains, but Kentucky and Alaska under could have swung democratic.
Also, Rand losing will have profound effects upon Ron Paul's likelihood of running of third party.
Click to expand...

mcadams was in third. 16% behind murkowski. 12% behind miller.
 
Plumber

Plumber

I think the recovery will have to be a bit more substantial. And Crist would caucus with the Dems, but an October POD is too late for him to win. August would be better.
 

starwarsfan

Iowa Caucus

Iowa Caucus


Picture-19.png


8:10 Rachel Maddow- According to NBC News, the Iowa Caucus is too early to call but it seems to be a battle between Ron Paul and Rick Santorum for first place.

8:45 Rachel Maddow Ron Paul has opened up a lead over Rick Santorum and NBC News can now project that Michelle Bachmann has gotten last place, followed by Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich while the battle for third and fourth is being battled out by Huntsman and Romney.

9:05 Rachel Maddow NBC News can now project that Mitt Romney will place a distant fourth at 12.2% and Jon Huntsman will place at 14.5%.

9:15 Rachel Maddow After some more exit polling, we can now project that Ron Paul has won the Iowa Caucus.

1-4-RON-PAUL-IOWA_full_600.jpg
-Ron Paul Victory Party in Iowa

"Tonight's results are a great victory for the cause of liberty"
"It won't be long before there's an election in New Hampshire and believe me this momentum will continue,"
-Excerpts from Ron Paul's victory speech
 
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