Earlier today, a thought occurred to me as to what circumstances would a Jack Kemp Presidency occur. Without further adoo, here is my timeline.
1988:
Although many conservative activists wanted Vice President George Bush to name Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana as his running mate, Bush decides to heed the advice of his close friend, former Treasury Secretary James Baker.
On the eve of the Republican National Convention in New Orleans, Bush announces that his pick for Vice President is Congressman Jack Kemp of New York. After dropping out of the primaries earlier this year, Kemp decided that he would not run for reelection to his Buffalo suburban district.
Before the GOP convention, Michael Dukakis had an 18 point lead over Bush. After the close of the convention, the Bush-Kemp ticket trails by 5 points in the polls.
In early September, Bush and Kemp meet with campaign manager Lee Atwater to discuss campaign strategy. Atwater tells Bush and Kemp to go after Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis on the issues of crime, welfare, his veto of a bill mandating recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance in Massachusetts public schools, and his veto of a bill banning the burning of the American flag in the State. Bush is reluctant to wage such a negative campaign for the White House.
Kemp tells Atwater he won't do that: "If George and I can't win on the issues that already matter to the American people, then we don't deserve to win." Atwater: "If you don't cut this guy's balls off, you're going to lose!" Kemp: "That's the difference between you people and us, Lee. You want to win in the worst way. We want to win in the best way. There is plenty of success in Ronald Reagan's record we can run on without running a negative campaign." For the rest of the campaign, the name "Willie Horton" will mean little to the American people, unless they remember the Detroit Tigers slugger of that name.
Nevertheless, Dukakis manages to blow his lead during the campaign. The picture of him riding in a tank highlights his liberal views on foreign and defense policy. Also, the Vice Presidential debate between Jack Kemp and Senator Lloyd Bentsen does not produce any memorable lines and is considered a draw.
In November, the voters decide to elect the Bush-Kemp ticket to what is considered Ronald Reagan's third term. Bush manages to win Jack Kemp's home state of New York by about 500 votes.
1989:
One day after the Senate votes against the confirmation of John Tower for Secretary of Defense, President Bush and Vice President Kemp meet for lunch. Kemp suggests that Bush nominate Alabama Congressman William Dickinson, a ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, for Secretary of Defense. Says Kemp, "Bill was elected to Congress in 1964 when Barry Goldwater easily won that state. And he does not have the drinking problems or other baggage that Tower has."
Although Bush wanted House Minority Whip Dick Cheney for the job, Kemp's arguments in favor of Dickinson convinced him to appoint him to the job. The Senate easily confirmed the nomination.
1991:
After coalition forces drive out the Iraqi military from Kuwait, Chief of Staff Donald Rumsfeld wanted to march the troops further into Baghdad and remove Saddam Hussein from power. In response, Vice President Kemp tells Rumsfeld: "General Powell and General Schwarzkopf say it isn't necessary, Don. If we did go in there, we'd be an occupying force. The people would revolt against us. It would be a hell of a mess. I may have had eleven concussions as a professional quarterback, but I'm not so addle-minded as to think going after Saddam would be a good thing." Defense Secretary Dickinson and Minority Whip Cheney take Kemp's side.
1992:
On May 19, Senator Dan Quayle announces that he is running for reelection during a speech in Indianapolis. He cites the fictional title character in the television program Murphy Brown as an example of how popular culture contributes to this "poverty of values", saying: "t doesn't help matters when prime time TV has Murphy Brown—a character who supposedly epitomizes today's intelligent, highly paid, professional woman—mocking the importance of fathers, by bearing a child alone, and calling it just another 'lifestyle choice.'" Feminist and liberal organizations condemn Quayle for the remarks but the speech generates little coverage outside Indiana. Quayle is expected to easily win reelection.
On a June 15 visit to an elementary school spelling bee in Trenton, New Jersey, Vice President Kemp watches as a student spells the word "potato" correctly.
Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas defeats President Bush and independent candidate H. Ross Perot and is elected President of the United States.
Thanks to redistricting, Republicans gain seats in the House. One such recipient is Newt Gingrich. After he was defeated for reelection in 1990, he moves to a Congressional district more favorable to him after the district he represented was redrawn to make it impossible for him to win back.
1994:
Republicans sweep the November elections to win majorities in the House and Senate. Dick Cheney is elected Speaker of the House. In an upset, Newt Gingrich is elected House Majority Leader. Nearly all of the GOP freshmen who signed the Gingrich-authored Contract With America voted to elect Gingrich to the position over Rep. Dick Armey of Texas.
1996:
Jack Kemp announces that he will not be a candidate for President. The Republicans nominate Senator Bob Dole for President and House Majority Whip Rep. Tom DeLay for Vice President.
President Clinton is reelcted in a landslide. He wins 45 states including Texas and over 52% of the popular vote against Dole and Ross Perot. The Democrats win back their majorities in the House and Senate. Tom DeLay is reelected to his seat in Congress.
Dick Cheney announces that he will resign from Congress. Dick Gephardt will be the new Speaker of the House. The Republicans elect Newt Gingrich House Minority Leader and Tom DeLay House Minority Whip.
1998:
In a deposition for his sexual harrassment lawsuit, brought about by Paula Jones, President Clinton testifies under oath that he had a relationship with a White House intern named Monica Lewinsky. Afterward, the Office of the Independent Counsel, headed by federal Judge Kenneth Starr, realizes that bringing charges of perjury and obstruction of justice before a civilian court would, under the circumstances, be laughable; and, if they were to suggest to Congress that the President be impeached on those charges, particularly with the Congress under Democratic control, such charges would almost certainly be rejected.
2000:
Former Vice President Jack Kemp wins the Iowa caucuses. While most of the Republican establishment favored Texas Governor George W. Bush, Kemp proved to be more effective at the candiates debates. Kemp also wins the New Hampshire primary.
After winning the Michigan primary, Senator John McCain makes a speech in South Carolina perceived as critical of the religious right. Governor Bush hoped to ride the resulting backlash against McCain to victory but Kemp squeaks to win by just 2 percentage points.
Although Bush wins his home state in the Super Tuesday primaries, Kemp sweeps the remaining states. Bush drops out of the race.
After winning the New York primary, Jack Kemp clinches the number of delegates needed to win the Republican nomination. John McCain drops out and endorses Kemp.
A week before the Republican National Convention, Jack Kemp announces that he has selected Congressman J.C. Watts of Oklahoma as his running mate. Watts becomes the first African-American to be nominated on a major party ticket. It is also the first time that two former professional football quarterbacks are nominated by a major party for President and Vice President (Watts played for the Canadian Football League).
In November, Jack Kemp is elected President of the United States. He wins Florida by 250,000 votes.
2001:
Jack Kemp is sworn in as President. His inauguaration is witnessed by Chief of Staff Colin Powell, Attorney General William Weld, Secretary of State Richard Lugar, and Secretary of Defense John McCain.
On April 3, President Jack Kemp throws out the first ball to begin the new baseball season at Robert F. Kennedy Stadium. The host Washington Senators defeat the Detroit Tigers, 3-2. After the game, he attends a briefing in the White House Situation Room. "We really need to discuss this airport-security plan," he is told by National Security Adviser Sam Nunn. Kemp agrees. Defense Secretary John McCain: "I know a thing or two about airplanes. This could mean the difference between a terrorist attack of massive proportions, or not."
September 11: Between 6:30 and 8:00 AM, nineteen men, all citizens of Middle Eastern nations, fifteen from Saudi Arabia, are arrested at Newark International Airport in New Jersey and Logan International Airport in Boston. They had been trying to smuggle weapons onto commercial airliners. President Kemp is informed of this while reading to schoolchildren in Florida, and returns to the White House to look over the reports. At around 5:30 PM, a Port Authority Trans-Hudson (PATH) train derails at the terminal underneath the World Trade Center in New York. One passenger, who had a rough day at work, remarks, "Damn! Everything else has gone wrong today, now this! This is the worst day of my life! What else could go wrong?" He doesn't know what really could have gone wrong, because the nineteen arrestees aren't talking, aren't telling them what they meant to do on those planes, and McCain has decided that there's no reason to alarm the American people by telling them about the arrests. They remain the top stories on the New York and Boston local newscasts, but generate little interest elsewhere.
October 7: President Kemp orders a bombing raid on Afghanistan, to attack Al-Qaeda terrorist camps. On television that night, he tells the American people what has happened, and why: The thwarted terrorist plans of September 11. "They tried to strike a terrifying blows against us," he says. "and they have failed. We have done the same, and are continuing to do the same, and we will succeed."
October 26: President Jack Kemp speaks before a joint session of Congress. He tells the American people what they want to hear: Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is in American custody, and the Taliban government of Afghanistan has fallen. "Let the dictators and demagogues of the world know," he says, "Americans are not scared. We are ever vigilant. Whether communist, fascist, or theocratic, whether you claim Christianity, Islam, or any other religion in the name of repression, your days are numbered." Kemp does not name any other such country or dicator. He also asks Congress to create a new cabinet position: Secretary of Homeland Security. Congress does, and Kemp names Sam Nunn to the job. Condoleeza Rice succeeds Nunn as National Security Advisor.
November 6: Despite the best efforts of outgoing Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, New York City Public Advocate Mark Green is elected Mayor, defeating the Republican nominee, billionaire media mogul Michael Bloomberg. "The big Green has defeated the lean green," Pete Hamill writes in the New York Daily News. "Well," remarks Bloomberg, "I guess my campaign has gone up in smoke." Giuliani will leave office with a mixed record, having greatly reduced crime and cleaned up the city's streets in a literal sense as well, but also having a record of corruption and police brutality. "Maybe they really would've hated me had those terrorist attacks gone through in September," he wonders. "Can you imagine New York City putting up with me after I let that happen?"
2002:
The Republicans gain seats in Congressional races but the Democrats remain in control. In Wyoming, former Speaker of the House Dick Cheney is elected Governor of that state.
Having failed to win back the House, Newt Gingrich resigns as House Minority Leader and from Congress at the end of the year.
2003:
President Kemp decides not to invade Iraq based on the report by UN inspectors that there are no weapons of mass destruction in that country. A few Republicans in Congress led by Tom DeLay wanted Kemp to invade Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein. House Minority Leader John Boehner sides with the President.
2004:
President Kemp is reelected in a landslide over Howard Dean. Kemp wins every state except Hawaii and Vermont. Republicans win back the House and Senate. In Illinois, Barack Obama is elected to the Senate although Kemp won 65% of the vote in that state.
John Boehner becomes the new Speaker of the House and Bill Frist becomes the new Senate Majority Leader.
John McCain retires as Secretary of Defense. President Kemp names UN Ambassador Colin Powell to succeed McCain. Powell will serve until his resignation in 2007 when he is replaced by Sam Nunn.
2005:
Kurdish rebels in the north and Shiite rebels in the south revolt and march triumphantly into Baghdad (thanks to secret gun running operations coordinated by the CIA and Mossad). The rebels name Ahmad Chalabi Prime Minister and Jalal Talabani President of Iraq. President Kemp recognizes the new government. A month later, Iraqi troops (mostly from the rebel army) find Saddam's hiding place and take him into custody. After a trial, Saddam will be hung in 2006.
2006:
William Weld resigns as Attorney General to run for Governor of New York. Kemp names former Senator Fred Thompson to succeed Weld.
Weld wins the GOP primary but loses in a close race to Elliot Spitzer.
The Republicans hold on to their majorities in Congress. Democrats in the House elect Nancy Pelosi to succeed Dick Gephardt as Minority Leader. Gephardt announced his retirement earlier this year.
2007:
Iraq establishes diplomatic relations with Israel and signs a peace treaty. After 59 years, the state of war between the two countries is over.
After Senator Craig Thomas of Wyoming dies of leukemia in June, Governor Dick Cheney appoints former Governor Jim Geringer to the US Senate.
Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts decides not to run for President. He endorses Vice President J.C. Watts.
2008:
The Republicans nominate J.C. Watts for President. He selects Senator Katherine Harris of Florida as his running mate.
The Democrats nominate Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York for President. She selects Senator John Edwards of North Carolina as her running mate.
Watts is heavily favored to become the first black President of the United States. A recent Gallup poll gives him a 20 point lead over Clinton.