The Making of a President: Jack Kemp

Earlier today, a thought occurred to me as to what circumstances would a Jack Kemp Presidency occur. Without further adoo, here is my timeline.

1988:
Although many conservative activists wanted Vice President George Bush to name Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana as his running mate, Bush decides to heed the advice of his close friend, former Treasury Secretary James Baker.

On the eve of the Republican National Convention in New Orleans, Bush announces that his pick for Vice President is Congressman Jack Kemp of New York. After dropping out of the primaries earlier this year, Kemp decided that he would not run for reelection to his Buffalo suburban district.

Before the GOP convention, Michael Dukakis had an 18 point lead over Bush. After the close of the convention, the Bush-Kemp ticket trails by 5 points in the polls.

In early September, Bush and Kemp meet with campaign manager Lee Atwater to discuss campaign strategy. Atwater tells Bush and Kemp to go after Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis on the issues of crime, welfare, his veto of a bill mandating recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance in Massachusetts public schools, and his veto of a bill banning the burning of the American flag in the State. Bush is reluctant to wage such a negative campaign for the White House.

Kemp tells Atwater he won't do that: "If George and I can't win on the issues that already matter to the American people, then we don't deserve to win." Atwater: "If you don't cut this guy's balls off, you're going to lose!" Kemp: "That's the difference between you people and us, Lee. You want to win in the worst way. We want to win in the best way. There is plenty of success in Ronald Reagan's record we can run on without running a negative campaign." For the rest of the campaign, the name "Willie Horton" will mean little to the American people, unless they remember the Detroit Tigers slugger of that name.

Nevertheless, Dukakis manages to blow his lead during the campaign. The picture of him riding in a tank highlights his liberal views on foreign and defense policy. Also, the Vice Presidential debate between Jack Kemp and Senator Lloyd Bentsen does not produce any memorable lines and is considered a draw.

In November, the voters decide to elect the Bush-Kemp ticket to what is considered Ronald Reagan's third term. Bush manages to win Jack Kemp's home state of New York by about 500 votes.

1989:
One day after the Senate votes against the confirmation of John Tower for Secretary of Defense, President Bush and Vice President Kemp meet for lunch. Kemp suggests that Bush nominate Alabama Congressman William Dickinson, a ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, for Secretary of Defense. Says Kemp, "Bill was elected to Congress in 1964 when Barry Goldwater easily won that state. And he does not have the drinking problems or other baggage that Tower has."

Although Bush wanted House Minority Whip Dick Cheney for the job, Kemp's arguments in favor of Dickinson convinced him to appoint him to the job. The Senate easily confirmed the nomination.

1991:
After coalition forces drive out the Iraqi military from Kuwait, Chief of Staff Donald Rumsfeld wanted to march the troops further into Baghdad and remove Saddam Hussein from power. In response, Vice President Kemp tells Rumsfeld: "General Powell and General Schwarzkopf say it isn't necessary, Don. If we did go in there, we'd be an occupying force. The people would revolt against us. It would be a hell of a mess. I may have had eleven concussions as a professional quarterback, but I'm not so addle-minded as to think going after Saddam would be a good thing." Defense Secretary Dickinson and Minority Whip Cheney take Kemp's side.

1992:
On May 19, Senator Dan Quayle announces that he is running for reelection during a speech in Indianapolis. He cites the fictional title character in the television program Murphy Brown as an example of how popular culture contributes to this "poverty of values", saying: "t doesn't help matters when prime time TV has Murphy Brown—a character who supposedly epitomizes today's intelligent, highly paid, professional woman—mocking the importance of fathers, by bearing a child alone, and calling it just another 'lifestyle choice.'" Feminist and liberal organizations condemn Quayle for the remarks but the speech generates little coverage outside Indiana. Quayle is expected to easily win reelection.

On a June 15 visit to an elementary school spelling bee in Trenton, New Jersey, Vice President Kemp watches as a student spells the word "potato" correctly.

Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas defeats President Bush and independent candidate H. Ross Perot and is elected President of the United States.

Thanks to redistricting, Republicans gain seats in the House. One such recipient is Newt Gingrich. After he was defeated for reelection in 1990, he moves to a Congressional district more favorable to him after the district he represented was redrawn to make it impossible for him to win back.

1994:
Republicans sweep the November elections to win majorities in the House and Senate. Dick Cheney is elected Speaker of the House. In an upset, Newt Gingrich is elected House Majority Leader. Nearly all of the GOP freshmen who signed the Gingrich-authored Contract With America voted to elect Gingrich to the position over Rep. Dick Armey of Texas.

1996:
Jack Kemp announces that he will not be a candidate for President. The Republicans nominate Senator Bob Dole for President and House Majority Whip Rep. Tom DeLay for Vice President.

President Clinton is reelcted in a landslide. He wins 45 states including Texas and over 52% of the popular vote against Dole and Ross Perot. The Democrats win back their majorities in the House and Senate. Tom DeLay is reelected to his seat in Congress.

Dick Cheney announces that he will resign from Congress. Dick Gephardt will be the new Speaker of the House. The Republicans elect Newt Gingrich House Minority Leader and Tom DeLay House Minority Whip.

1998:
In a deposition for his sexual harrassment lawsuit, brought about by Paula Jones, President Clinton testifies under oath that he had a relationship with a White House intern named Monica Lewinsky. Afterward, the Office of the Independent Counsel, headed by federal Judge Kenneth Starr, realizes that bringing charges of perjury and obstruction of justice before a civilian court would, under the circumstances, be laughable; and, if they were to suggest to Congress that the President be impeached on those charges, particularly with the Congress under Democratic control, such charges would almost certainly be rejected.

2000:
Former Vice President Jack Kemp wins the Iowa caucuses. While most of the Republican establishment favored Texas Governor George W. Bush, Kemp proved to be more effective at the candiates debates. Kemp also wins the New Hampshire primary.

After winning the Michigan primary, Senator John McCain makes a speech in South Carolina perceived as critical of the religious right. Governor Bush hoped to ride the resulting backlash against McCain to victory but Kemp squeaks to win by just 2 percentage points.

Although Bush wins his home state in the Super Tuesday primaries, Kemp sweeps the remaining states. Bush drops out of the race.

After winning the New York primary, Jack Kemp clinches the number of delegates needed to win the Republican nomination. John McCain drops out and endorses Kemp.

A week before the Republican National Convention, Jack Kemp announces that he has selected Congressman J.C. Watts of Oklahoma as his running mate. Watts becomes the first African-American to be nominated on a major party ticket. It is also the first time that two former professional football quarterbacks are nominated by a major party for President and Vice President (Watts played for the Canadian Football League).

In November, Jack Kemp is elected President of the United States. He wins Florida by 250,000 votes.

2001:
Jack Kemp is sworn in as President. His inauguaration is witnessed by Chief of Staff Colin Powell, Attorney General William Weld, Secretary of State Richard Lugar, and Secretary of Defense John McCain.

On April 3, President Jack Kemp throws out the first ball to begin the new baseball season at Robert F. Kennedy Stadium. The host Washington Senators defeat the Detroit Tigers, 3-2. After the game, he attends a briefing in the White House Situation Room. "We really need to discuss this airport-security plan," he is told by National Security Adviser Sam Nunn. Kemp agrees. Defense Secretary John McCain: "I know a thing or two about airplanes. This could mean the difference between a terrorist attack of massive proportions, or not."

September 11: Between 6:30 and 8:00 AM, nineteen men, all citizens of Middle Eastern nations, fifteen from Saudi Arabia, are arrested at Newark International Airport in New Jersey and Logan International Airport in Boston. They had been trying to smuggle weapons onto commercial airliners. President Kemp is informed of this while reading to schoolchildren in Florida, and returns to the White House to look over the reports. At around 5:30 PM, a Port Authority Trans-Hudson (PATH) train derails at the terminal underneath the World Trade Center in New York. One passenger, who had a rough day at work, remarks, "Damn! Everything else has gone wrong today, now this! This is the worst day of my life! What else could go wrong?" He doesn't know what really could have gone wrong, because the nineteen arrestees aren't talking, aren't telling them what they meant to do on those planes, and McCain has decided that there's no reason to alarm the American people by telling them about the arrests. They remain the top stories on the New York and Boston local newscasts, but generate little interest elsewhere.

October 7: President Kemp orders a bombing raid on Afghanistan, to attack Al-Qaeda terrorist camps. On television that night, he tells the American people what has happened, and why: The thwarted terrorist plans of September 11. "They tried to strike a terrifying blows against us," he says. "and they have failed. We have done the same, and are continuing to do the same, and we will succeed."

October 26: President Jack Kemp speaks before a joint session of Congress. He tells the American people what they want to hear: Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is in American custody, and the Taliban government of Afghanistan has fallen. "Let the dictators and demagogues of the world know," he says, "Americans are not scared. We are ever vigilant. Whether communist, fascist, or theocratic, whether you claim Christianity, Islam, or any other religion in the name of repression, your days are numbered." Kemp does not name any other such country or dicator. He also asks Congress to create a new cabinet position: Secretary of Homeland Security. Congress does, and Kemp names Sam Nunn to the job. Condoleeza Rice succeeds Nunn as National Security Advisor.

November 6: Despite the best efforts of outgoing Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, New York City Public Advocate Mark Green is elected Mayor, defeating the Republican nominee, billionaire media mogul Michael Bloomberg. "The big Green has defeated the lean green," Pete Hamill writes in the New York Daily News. "Well," remarks Bloomberg, "I guess my campaign has gone up in smoke." Giuliani will leave office with a mixed record, having greatly reduced crime and cleaned up the city's streets in a literal sense as well, but also having a record of corruption and police brutality. "Maybe they really would've hated me had those terrorist attacks gone through in September," he wonders. "Can you imagine New York City putting up with me after I let that happen?"

2002:
The Republicans gain seats in Congressional races but the Democrats remain in control. In Wyoming, former Speaker of the House Dick Cheney is elected Governor of that state.

Having failed to win back the House, Newt Gingrich resigns as House Minority Leader and from Congress at the end of the year.

2003:
President Kemp decides not to invade Iraq based on the report by UN inspectors that there are no weapons of mass destruction in that country. A few Republicans in Congress led by Tom DeLay wanted Kemp to invade Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein. House Minority Leader John Boehner sides with the President.

2004:
President Kemp is reelected in a landslide over Howard Dean. Kemp wins every state except Hawaii and Vermont. Republicans win back the House and Senate. In Illinois, Barack Obama is elected to the Senate although Kemp won 65% of the vote in that state.

John Boehner becomes the new Speaker of the House and Bill Frist becomes the new Senate Majority Leader.

John McCain retires as Secretary of Defense. President Kemp names UN Ambassador Colin Powell to succeed McCain. Powell will serve until his resignation in 2007 when he is replaced by Sam Nunn.

2005:
Kurdish rebels in the north and Shiite rebels in the south revolt and march triumphantly into Baghdad (thanks to secret gun running operations coordinated by the CIA and Mossad). The rebels name Ahmad Chalabi Prime Minister and Jalal Talabani President of Iraq. President Kemp recognizes the new government. A month later, Iraqi troops (mostly from the rebel army) find Saddam's hiding place and take him into custody. After a trial, Saddam will be hung in 2006.

2006:
William Weld resigns as Attorney General to run for Governor of New York. Kemp names former Senator Fred Thompson to succeed Weld.

Weld wins the GOP primary but loses in a close race to Elliot Spitzer.

The Republicans hold on to their majorities in Congress. Democrats in the House elect Nancy Pelosi to succeed Dick Gephardt as Minority Leader. Gephardt announced his retirement earlier this year.

2007:
Iraq establishes diplomatic relations with Israel and signs a peace treaty. After 59 years, the state of war between the two countries is over.

After Senator Craig Thomas of Wyoming dies of leukemia in June, Governor Dick Cheney appoints former Governor Jim Geringer to the US Senate.

Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts decides not to run for President. He endorses Vice President J.C. Watts.

2008:
The Republicans nominate J.C. Watts for President. He selects Senator Katherine Harris of Florida as his running mate.

The Democrats nominate Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York for President. She selects Senator John Edwards of North Carolina as her running mate.

Watts is heavily favored to become the first black President of the United States. A recent Gallup poll gives him a 20 point lead over Clinton.
 
Before I start tearing little pieces off, overall I'm behind you. I like the timeline, find much of it realistic in the broad sense, and generally my concerns are with minor to medium things.

In November, the voters decide to elect the Bush-Kemp ticket to what is considered Ronald Reagan's third term. Bush manages to win Jack Kemp's home state of New York by about 500 votes.

Up to this, no particular problem (and if I don't mention something, it means I'm generally ok with it). But no way does Kemp, of all people, mean the Republicans carry New York—not least because in the ATL without the negative campaign the Democrats probably do better overall. The margin was like 5%/400,000—Kemp might close it, but minus the Atwater preferred campaign it probably widens back out a little.

One thing you could note, instead, is that Kemp means a higher number of black voters for the Republicans. Kemp was well known as pretty much the only high profile Republican that cared about blacks and urban issues.

1992:
On May 19, Senator Dan Quayle announces that he is running for reelection during a speech in Indianapolis. He cites the fictional title character in the television program Murphy Brown as an example of how popular culture contributes to this "poverty of values", saying: "t doesn't help matters whe prime timeTV has Murphy Brown—a character who supposedly epitomizes today's intelligent, highly paid, professional woman—mocking the importance of fathers, by bearing a child alone, and calling it just another 'lifestyle choice.'" Feminist and liberal organizations condemn Quayle for the remarks but the speech generates little coverage outside Indiana. Quayle is expected to easily win reelection.


Quayle, I'd argue, was a pretty smart guy. Yes, he was forever defined as the dumb dude but at least part of that was that the campaign team in '88 had no idea he was the VP—they literally had one page of briefing on him, photocopied from a book. So they never pushed back.

Yes, he was prone to silly mistakes—but he was also covered that way because that's how the press thought about him.

I'm not saying he was brilliant, or could have been a great President, or whatever—I'm just saying the historical picture of Quayle probably underrates him dating back to the '88 defining campaign against him by the Democrats.

As for the actual quote: I call butterflies. Also, one could note that Brown keeps the kid… no abortions.

1996:
Jack Kemp announces that he will not be a candidate for President. The Republicans nominate Senator Bob Dole for President and House Majority Whip Rep. Tom DeLay for Vice President.

I'm not sure DeLay would want the VP slot with Dole, but sure I suppose he works. Dole basically needed a supply-side new school conservative (since he was part of the old, dying, "balance the budget" midwest conservative wing). So anyone in that mold—Kemp helped invent the fiction of supply-side economics, which is why he was in, IOTL—works.


The Democrats win back their majorities in the House and Senate. Tom DeLay is reelected to his seat in Congress.

Dick Cheney announces that he will resign from Congress. Dick Gephardt will be the new Speaker of the House. The Republicans elect Newt Gingrich House Minority Leader and Tom DeLay House Minority Whip.

Nah. It was demographics in the South (white southerners finally switching Republican at the House level as old Southern Democrats retired) plus the addition of some reformers in the rest of the country (think Ross Perot voters) that led the Republican takeover of the House.

I'm not sure why Clinton does so much better in the ATL, but as IOTL he has to do it by triangulating against both sides, and that gives him weak coattails.

The Republicans should retain the House, and if Bob Dole steps down from the Senate as he did IOTL (he probably will, in the ATL) Tom DeLay has to quit too. No re-election for him.

If you want Dick Cheney out of the way, perhaps a different cabinet post in the Bush 41 administration.

1998:
In a deposition for his sexual harrassment lawsuit, brought about by Paula Jones, President Clinton testifies under oath that he had a relationship with a White House intern named Monica Lewinsky. Afterward, the Office of the Independent Counsel, headed by federal Judge Kenneth Starr, realizes that bringing charges of perjury and obstruction of justice before a civilian court would, under the circumstances, be laughable; and, if they were to suggest to Congress that the President be impeached on those charges, particularly with the Congress under Democratic control, such charges would almost certainly be rejected.

The easiest change to cover this is to have Clinton give the Shrum written "apology" speech instead of his actual speech.

Again, Congress wouldn't be Democratic but the Senate probably is.

2000:
Former Vice President Jack Kemp wins the Iowa caucuses. While most of the Republican establishment favored Texas Governor George W. Bush, Kemp proved to be more effective at the candiates debates. Kemp also wins the New Hampshire primary.

Butterflies could easily kill George Bush in '94 (give him the Baseball Commissioner job, perhaps), to get him out of the way and Jeb Bush wouldn't have been in office long enough to run in 2000.

After winning the Michigan primary, Senator John McCain makes a speech in South Carolina perceived as critical of the religious right. Governor Bush hoped to ride the resulting backlash against McCain to victory but Kemp squeaks to win by just 2 percentage points.

In South Carolina? Bush still wins, Kemp is an economic conservative not a religious one. He's from New York and is a friend of the black community, after all.

If we get rid of Bush, Kemp can beat out McCain in Iowa and and perhaps win in New Hampshire which leaves McCain as a distinctly second-place candidate, although one who might compete very well on Super Tuesday.

A week before the Republican National Convention, Jack Kemp announces that he has selected Congressman J.C. Watts of Oklahoma as his running mate. Watts becomes the first African-American to be nominated on a major party ticket. It is also the first time that two former professional football quarterbacks are nominated by a major party for President and Vice President (Watts played for the Canadian Football League).

I like it. (And go Canada!)


In November, Jack Kemp is elected President of the United States. He wins Florida by 250,000 votes.

Probably beats out George Bush's 2000 performance overall, not just Florida.

2001:
Jack Kemp is sworn in as President. His inauguaration is witnessed by Chief of Staff Colin Powell, Attorney General William Weld, Secretary of State Richard Lugar, and Secretary of Defense John McCain.

Colin Powell isn't going to be Chief of Staff. McCain is probably on good relations with Kemp (unlike with Bush, IOTL) but I'm not sure if he agrees to leave the Senate. Same with Lugar.

Realistically the bench is drawn from outside Congress, for the most part, unless someone is considered very important to have and it won't hurt them (i.e. the Governor can appoint a Republican, or there's someone who can run and win the vacant seat).

Clinton grabbed only a couple people from Congress, and same with previous Presidents. Kemp isn't going to take two Senators from a Senate they're already behind in.


After the game, he attends a briefing in the White House Situation Room. "We really need to discuss this airport-security plan," he is told by National Security Adviser Sam Nunn. Kemp agrees. Defense Secretary John McCain: "I know a thing or two about airplanes. This could mean the difference between a terrorist attack of massive proportions, or not."

Eh. There were warning signs about terrorism for both the Clinton and Bush 43 administrations (heck, dating all the way back to Carter) and nobody picked up hard on them.

However, it is reasonable for someone to say "hey! let's have an anti-terrorist strategy and security on sound principles" if you want something decent, instead of the paranoia based Bush 43 approach. (Or, sure, you can have the crazy response of OTL if you want.)

Perhaps Kemp, with butterflies, is near the '93 World Trade Center bombing and so he retains a concern for terrorism.

October 26: He also asks Congress to create a new cabinet position: Secretary of Homeland Security. Congress does, and Kemp names Sam Nunn to the job. Condoleeza Rice succeeds Nunn as National Security Advisor.

Kemp would come up with a less stupid name. Perhaps Secretary of Internal Security or something. Likewise, Homeland Security the department was silly and could be replaced by a "Czar" given real and actual authority over the various intelligence departments.

2002:
The Republicans gain seats in Congressional races but the Democrats remain in control. In Wyoming, former Speaker of the House Dick Cheney is elected Governor of that state.

Having failed to win back the House, Newt Gingrich resigns as House Minority Leader and from Congress at the end of the year.

They should still have Congress, but I like Dick Cheney as Governor of Wyoming :).

2004:
President Kemp is reelected in a landslide over Howard Dean. Kemp wins every state except Hawaii and Vermont. Republicans win back the House and Senate.

Well it wouldn't be Howard Dean, who ran because of the war. Equally we can rule out Kerry and his "national security / electability" and probably Edwards… too unseasoned.

Hmm. I'm not sure who the Democrats run. Might be Edwards, after all, or Gephardt or… really unsure, actually.

Also, Kemp isn't winning a landslide. He should pick up some black support now that, presumably, he's done some pro-black housing project stuff but overall the Republican post-68 majority has been eroding since Clinton, and Kemp simply isn't winning large landslides.

Solid victories—300 or maybe 350 electoral votes—but not '84 landslides.

In Illinois, Barack Obama is elected to the Senate although Kemp won 65% of the vote in that state

Republicans wouldn't carry 65% of Illinois in 2004 if the Democrats ran a monkey. Win it, sure, but not with 65%.

2005:
Kurdish rebels in the north and Shiite rebels in the south revolt and march triumphantly into Baghdad (thanks to secret gun running operations coordinated by the CIA and Mossad). The rebels name Ahmad Chalabi Prime Minister and Jalal Talabani President of Iraq. President Kemp recognizes the new government. A month later, Iraqi troops (mostly from the rebel army) find Saddam's hiding place and take him into custody. After a trial, Saddam will be hung in 2006.

Fantasy land. Saddam is doing just fine putting down rebels. Now maybe if you kill him, and in the resulting chaos Iraq breaks up, but your scenario is a touch unlikely, to say the least.
 
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