What if there had been a successful counterattack at Maichew in 1936?
Let's say this happens:
Emperor Haile Selassie arrived at Quorom where preparations were underway for an Ethiopian confrontation and counteroffensive against Italian troops rapidly advancing as the elite Imperial Guard arrived with him. The Emperor had informed Empress Menen of his plans of attacking prior to leaving and took the advice of his foreign advisors that the Italians were intercepting radio messages, taking advantage of this to send a message to Menen that gave the pretense of attacking on St. George’s Day. Badoglio received this news, preparing to defend as Haile Selassie gained allies such as the local Azebu Galla who agreed to attack Italian flanks and engage the Italians as shifta. The Galla were sent earlier to disrupt the Italians from the construction of defenses and bringing in reserves which hampered Italian forces as their supply lines were harassed. This gave Ethiopian forces a chance to prepare themselves and launch the offensive on March 14 in an attempt to surprise the Italians.
The Maichew Offensive resulted in Ethiopian victory as Italian troops stationed at Maichew were caught off-guard, many of them still constructing defenses after the Galla had launched attacks on the local Italian forces. Due to Galla attacks, Badoglio depleted the main force for forces that could protect other soldiers and engineers from the Galla as well as for the guerrilla bands that had risen in the Italian-held regions of Tigray. The Italians had expected the Maichew Offensive to come on St. George’s Day and the Italians were unable to fight off the Ethiopian frontal assault on the lines of the uncompleted defensive positions. The Imperial Guard’s discipline and training separated them from the northern armies as they fought with the 2nd Eritrean Division, destroying it as the commander of the unit was about to call in concentrated artillery strikes on his position before dying from an errant shot of an irregular Galla soldier. Despite mounting casualties, Ras Kassa’s army captured Meken Pass as the Eritreans were pushed off and forced to retreat as Badoglio ordered a withdrawal of Italian forces who sustained heavy casualties as they retreated. An Ethiopian victory was secured by Haile Selassie for one of the first times of the war, boosting the morale of the northern troops who enjoyed spoils from the Italians’ camps that included food and good weapons. Meanwhile, Mussolini continued to pressure Badoglio and Graziani to finish the war but now that the Ethiopians had secured a decisive victory on the northern front and thus those on the southern front were determined to prevent any penetration by the Italians into the southeastern Somali provinces.
Weather was forcing the Italians to stop relying on vehicles to prosecute of the war including armoured cars and tanks which were unable to drive in the terrible terrain and muddy roads as Ethiopia lacked roads. Badoglio was preparing an offensive of his own to retake Maichew before the bad weather could fully set in and prevent any Italian force from advancing further into Ethiopia. Haile Selassie was making his own preparations for a move of the seat of the government to western Ethiopia as defenses were erected by the Ethiopians for the Italian onslaught that was sure to come.
What happens now?
Let's say this happens:
Emperor Haile Selassie arrived at Quorom where preparations were underway for an Ethiopian confrontation and counteroffensive against Italian troops rapidly advancing as the elite Imperial Guard arrived with him. The Emperor had informed Empress Menen of his plans of attacking prior to leaving and took the advice of his foreign advisors that the Italians were intercepting radio messages, taking advantage of this to send a message to Menen that gave the pretense of attacking on St. George’s Day. Badoglio received this news, preparing to defend as Haile Selassie gained allies such as the local Azebu Galla who agreed to attack Italian flanks and engage the Italians as shifta. The Galla were sent earlier to disrupt the Italians from the construction of defenses and bringing in reserves which hampered Italian forces as their supply lines were harassed. This gave Ethiopian forces a chance to prepare themselves and launch the offensive on March 14 in an attempt to surprise the Italians.
The Maichew Offensive resulted in Ethiopian victory as Italian troops stationed at Maichew were caught off-guard, many of them still constructing defenses after the Galla had launched attacks on the local Italian forces. Due to Galla attacks, Badoglio depleted the main force for forces that could protect other soldiers and engineers from the Galla as well as for the guerrilla bands that had risen in the Italian-held regions of Tigray. The Italians had expected the Maichew Offensive to come on St. George’s Day and the Italians were unable to fight off the Ethiopian frontal assault on the lines of the uncompleted defensive positions. The Imperial Guard’s discipline and training separated them from the northern armies as they fought with the 2nd Eritrean Division, destroying it as the commander of the unit was about to call in concentrated artillery strikes on his position before dying from an errant shot of an irregular Galla soldier. Despite mounting casualties, Ras Kassa’s army captured Meken Pass as the Eritreans were pushed off and forced to retreat as Badoglio ordered a withdrawal of Italian forces who sustained heavy casualties as they retreated. An Ethiopian victory was secured by Haile Selassie for one of the first times of the war, boosting the morale of the northern troops who enjoyed spoils from the Italians’ camps that included food and good weapons. Meanwhile, Mussolini continued to pressure Badoglio and Graziani to finish the war but now that the Ethiopians had secured a decisive victory on the northern front and thus those on the southern front were determined to prevent any penetration by the Italians into the southeastern Somali provinces.
Weather was forcing the Italians to stop relying on vehicles to prosecute of the war including armoured cars and tanks which were unable to drive in the terrible terrain and muddy roads as Ethiopia lacked roads. Badoglio was preparing an offensive of his own to retake Maichew before the bad weather could fully set in and prevent any Italian force from advancing further into Ethiopia. Haile Selassie was making his own preparations for a move of the seat of the government to western Ethiopia as defenses were erected by the Ethiopians for the Italian onslaught that was sure to come.
What happens now?