The Lucky Country: Protect and Survive in Australia

[HaroldWinthrop]

I think the problem you have with an Australian story in the Protect and Survive timeline is that the canon is not entirely logical. To be fair, it was written by people who didn't know a lot about Australia, and references to Australia were in passing.

FTG, I agree with you. The target list from previous Australian timelines is problematic and raises more questions than answers.

Agree with Sydney (Garden Island dockyard, citybusting) and Canberra (decapitation of government) as key targets. Melbourne should be a given (citybusting) along with the strategic targets of Pine Gap, Nurrungar and Exmouth from strategic weapons. Perth (Fleet Base West) would also be a likely target, along with Darwin (to deny the port and airfield and catch any USAF B-52s on the ground). If Darwin isn't targeted for a strategic strike then it, along with the then extant 'bare' airbases at Derby and Exmouth would likely be targets of nuclear attack from air-or sea-launched cruise missiles.

I know I've also discussed with you before the Commonwealth War Book and the implication of planning for Transition To War (TTW) footing. I think the Australian Government would have been dusting off the War Book and updating it frantically by the time of the airliners incident and by the end of 1983 there would have been quiet preparations for dispersal of key assets and continuity of government in the event of a nuclear attack.

And also, this document might have had a refresh and a new print run by the New Year of 1984:

 

[HaroldWinthrop]

In any case, and not to diminish losses, but I think Hawke's actions in giving the PM more power aren't really necessary.

The Governor General is head of state (and head of the defence force) and if he dies then the longest-serving of the state governors takes over, so it's not like the country would be left rudderless.

With Canberra nuked (and with it all the bureaucrats), the state governments would arguably have much greater importance, and certainly autonomy.

Also agree with you here. There's a strong constitutional process for ensuring the continuity of the Head of State (the GG and his successors, the various State Governors and by then Territory Administrators) and by inference the legitimacy of Parliamentary Government in Australia.

Putting together a legitimate National, State or Territory Parliament to create a functioning government after a nuclear strike would be an interesting constitutional law challenge and one that would have to be worked out and implemented quickly.

All of this constitutional discussion over the future of government in a post-nuclear exchange world would abe going on against the background of the printing and distribution of this kind of document in late 1983/early 1984 and the effect it would have on the civilian population:

 

[Lord Brisbane]

Interesting start.

I agree with Fred the Great and his comments.

In 1984, I would say that Amberley could be the potential target, and not Brisbane city itself unless its off target. At the time, I don't think Brisbane would really warrant wasting a nuke on, unless of course the Russians got the wrong idea after watching the '82 Commonwealth games.

Also, the Federal government would still have plenty of public servants in the capital cities, as many departments would have had regional offices.

Yeah, I also agree with Pangur about the railways, do you mean federalise, which would be under defacto control of Australian National?

On the above point, I think Joh would have something to say about that, which brings me to a question, but did the '83 Queensland election occur?

In the book Taking Australia Off the Map (1983) it throws out a big list of targets, mostly military, but anything in Brisbane or Amberley isn't listed (though the *secret* NSA electronics post at Cabarlah north of Toowoomba is listed as a potential target of "lesser strategic significance". In the "all out nuclear war" scenario, the author concludes that 2-3 urban centres would be targeted (excluding those not hit because of their military targets), so Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra would be the logical choice IMHO. The book also covers a lot else, and includes a rather graphic description of nuclear attack on Sydney in the early 1980s.

I would personally love to do a P&S Queensland, but I don't ever seem to have the time atm.

Sorry for rambling, but can't wait to see where you take things.

 

[Riain]

I'll add my two bob if I may. If Hawkey has enough time to enact emergency legislation then there is enough time to deploy the RAAF from Amberley, Williamtown, Richmond and Edinburgh to places like Darwin, Cairns, Christmas Island and Butterworth. Similarly the RAN could forward deploy to Darwin, Manus Island etc, especially since in 1984 we had the destroyer tender HMAS Stalwart.

As for nuclear targets the military would have to be hit, so somewhere like Darwin with several RAAF sqns and a strong RAN and Army presence would be obliterated. The joint C3I facilities will also be hit due to their military utility. I'd also think that Melbourne and Sydney would cop it to deny dockyards and aircraft repair facilities to the West.

That would still leave Australia with a lot of recovery capacity, with many major industrial areas and capital cities, so if there are nukes to spare every city over 500,000 will be levelled.

 

[Mumbles]

As for nuclear targets the military would have to be hit, so somewhere like Darwin with several RAAF sqns and a strong RAN and Army presence would be obliterated. The joint C3I facilities will also be hit due to their military utility. I'd also think that Melbourne and Sydney would cop it to deny dockyards and aircraft repair facilities to the West.

Wondering if Avalon airport and Geelong would be worth hitting for their own industrial sake in your context above. Around Geelong alone there is the oil refineries and Ford plants, and aircraft manufacture and repair with GAF at nearby Avalon.

Also RANAS Nowra and RAAF Edinburgh if the Soviets wanted to go after ASW assets, and RAAF Williamtown and Butterworth (Malaysia) for fighters, and RAAF Richmond (west Sydney) for transport.

Similar applies for NZ, besides the capital there are a few purely military targets that could be eliminated if the warheads were available. RNZAF Ohakea (maritime strike assets), and RNZAF Whenuapai and Devonport Naval base in Auckland for ASW, transport and Navy assets. Hitting Whenuapai would also remove the RNZAF's Helicopter base at nearby Hobsonville.

Depends on what level of attack the Sovs had in mind really.

 

[Fred the Great]

There wasn't much in Darwin in 1984. Army Presence in the North wasn't announced until 1987, and it took a few years to have any effect. The RAN had some patrol boats, of course.

What is interesting is that from late '83 the RAAF started drawing down its establishment at what was then RAAF Butterworth in Malaysia. You had No. 3 and No. 75 squadrons, both with Mirage IIIOs, based there until the latter was relocated to RAAF Darwin in about August '83.

So the author has some latitude here. No. 75 could have been maintained at Butterworth given the escalating tensions, or could have already shipped to Darwin. Then Darwin may or may not go on the Soviet targeting list. Butterworth, I would think, would be on the list, but perhaps only one nuke and perhaps it misses or malfunctions. (The same can happen at any target assigned only one nuke.)

Also, as others have correctly said, the RAAF would almost certainly chose not to leave all its eggs in a few baskets after the balloon goes up. The base support for the combat aircraft could still, however, cop some instant sunshine.

In terms of the Army, 1 Brigade's infantry battalions - 3RAR and 5/7RAR -were at Holsworthy and would be in trouble depending where a warhead hits Sydney (it's a big city), but you still have 1 Armoured (Leopard 1s) and 2 Cavalry (M-113s) regiments at Puckapunyal. 6 Brigade in Brisbane could also be in trouble, but I see no one has mentioned targeting 3 Brigade in Townsville. You also have the SAS regiment in Perth.

I don't expect the army will have deployed anything at this time. I mean, against whom would they be deployed? Perhaps an increase in the rifle company commitment at Butterworth? That'd be it.

The Navy? Well, everything that can sail would be at sea.

Personally, I have the feeling that combat units will be of less importance post-exchange to Australia. It's the RAN's support ships (HMAS Stalwart, Jervis Bay, Tobruk) and RAAF air lift (Hercules, Caribous) that will be of greatest use. And the greatest problem that Australia will face will be oil.

 

[Fred the Great]

I have to say that I do think it's reasonable that the Soviets hit less than 10 targets in Australia. I don't believe they would have seen much to gain by hitting more than that. Take out the key strategic targets (the three US ground stations we discussed), bust up the capital and the largest city and well what else is needed?

That said, we shouldn't underestimate the damage that would be inflicted by even single nuclear hits on Canberra and Sydney or overestimate Australia's ability to respond. This country was not particularly prepared in civil defence. One P&S timeline had Australia sending aid to the UK and a RAN destroyer being impounded, and I think this is all nonsense. It would take time to recover in our own country, let alone help anyone else. The ability to recover and help would really depend on oil. We could refine it back then, but where would we obtain it from? With fuel, we can produce more food than we need. Without it, you can't do much.

 

[Mumbles]

One P&S timeline had Australia sending aid to the UK and a RAN destroyer being impounded, and I think this is all nonsense.

It's the original timeline IIRC, with a combined RAN/RNZN aid convoy. Sounds good, but I agree it seems unlikely.

 

[PimpLenin]

As far as the targets go, I already have a list drawn up with estimated casualty figures. It may not be 100% canon, but then again in the other timelines the whole Australian situation is kind of fuzzy anyway. As to where and what the targets are; you'll just have to wait and see.

The start of military preparations will be addressed in my next update. A couple of you have hit the nail on the head as far as what I am planning to do. Also, in a later update the preparation of the state/territorial governments will be addressed, too.

I will also be addressing the convoy to the UK as well after the exchange. It will be part of a larger operation.

I hope to have an update tonight; if not tonight tomorrow night.

 

[Unknown]

Waiting for more...

 

[Cockroach]

We could refine it back then, but where would we obtain it from? With fuel, we can produce more food than we need. Without it, you can't do much.

Oil? Probably not as much as a problem as you'd think. Conventional oil production in 2011-12 24,000ML (government statistics); reducing to 21,000ML in 2012-13. Total consumption over the same time period is 54-55,000ML per year. Just on that basis we're about 40-50% self sufficient... not good but with heavy rationing it'd certainly be enough to mean the difference between survival and collapse. Of cause there's complications (e.g. production in NW mainly heads directly overseas; we end up with something like 100% exports and 100% imports)...

Back in the 1980s demand for oil was lower while a number of now non-viable fields on the east coast were still in production... so, assuming the refineries are still running we'd be fairly well off.

It's the original timeline IIRC, with a combined RAN/RNZN aid convoy. Sounds good, but I agree it seems unlikely.

Of cause, we could just write that off as a well intentioned stunt rather than a serious attempt at providing aid...

 

[PimpLenin]

3 February 1984 - 1:00 pm
Prime Minister's Office, Parliament House
Canberra, ACT


Prime Minister Bob Hawke and Governor-General Ninian Stephen both sat stiff and upright in their chairs, giving their full attention to the man speaking, Vice-Admiral David Leach, Chief of the Naval Staff.

"Fortunately for us at the moment, most of our vessels are in port. Those that are still out there have been ordered to return, and are at most two or three days out. Now, once the ships are back, they will be refueled and resupplied. Their crews will be confined to base. All ships will be ready to sail at a moments notice."

Governor-General Stephen nodded at Vice-Admiral Leach. "Thank you, Admiral." As Commander-in-Chief of Australia's armed forces, he was chairing the meeting. He next looked towards Air Marshal David Evans, Chief of the Air Staff. "Air Marshal?"

"Sir, we are currently preparing to relocate our aircraft from our main, larger airbases and air bases in the cities to more remote ones. This way, we will preserve our air strength by moving our planes from likely Soviet target areas. We will also utilise rural airports; at least the ones with runways that can support our aircraft. All necessary support crews and supplies will be moved out as well. If war does break out and there is a nuclear exchange, we can move back to any of the major bases that survive fairly quickly."

Next, the Governor-General looked towards General Peter Gration, Chief of the General Staff. "And the army, General?"

"Sir, the order to call up our active and inactive reserves will be given this afternoon. We will then be evacuating our troops from the major cities to barracks and camps in more rural locations, much for the same reason the Air Force is moving their aircraft. However, we will not be moving too far out. We want our troops in a position to move back into the cities rapidly to maintain order and give any assistance, if necessary. We are treating this as we would treat an overseas deployment, so rest assured our troops will be fully equipped and supplied for a long-term operation."

At the conclusion of their presentations, Prime Minister Hawke thanked and shook the hands of each Chief of Staff.

"Thank you for the good work, gentlemen. I'd like to ask that the Governor-General and Air Chief Marshal McNamara stay behind for a moment, if they don't mind. I just have a couple of questions for them."

After the Chiefs of Staff departed, Prime Minister Hawke, Governor-General Stephen, and Air Chief Marshal Neville McNamara, Chief of the Defence Force Staff, returned to their chairs.

"There are a couple of things I would like to quickly go over. First is the evacuation of the government from Canberra. If we have to leave quickly, I think we need a central location where we can carry on. Someplace accessible, but rural, and someplace the Russians wouldn't hit. Can you think of any place like this, Air Chief Marshal?"

Air Chief Marshal McNamara pursed his lips slightly as he mulled the question over.

"Well, Prime Minister, I would suggest Wagga Wagga. It is accessible by air, rail, and road. There are two military facilities nearby where the government can work securely. Here in Canberra, we can have No. 34 Squadron keep aircraft on standby at Fairbairn to take anyone there."

The Prime Minister looked over at the Governor-General and smiled.

"What do you think, Ninian? Care to take a holiday in fabulous Wagga Wagga?"

The Governor-General chucked.

"Oh, I can't wait, Bob. It does sound like it will serve our purpose, though."

Back to a serious tone, the Prime Minister brought up a subject he really would not rather talk about.

"There is something else we will need your help with. The Defence Minister suggested to me that refugee camps and food distribution centres be set up near military facilities. He reckons it would allow our forces to maintain security easier."

The Air Chief Marshal nodded his head as he listened.

"It can be done, I believe. We can begin setting up the camps now and have them ready. I suppose having them near a military facility will make it easier for civilians to find them if needed. It also may provide a psychological effect. They'll feel safe and secure with the military, and less likely to cause trouble."

The Prime Minister relaxed his face and smiled, glad to have a difficult topic out in the open.

"I would like to have the Defence Minister and Chris Hurford, the Minister of Housing and Construction, working with your people on this."

Air Chief Marshal McNamara smiled and thought to himself "Civilians. Politicians. Shit."

"We would be grateful for their assistance, Prime Minister. I will have the Deputy Chiefs meet with them and forward proposals to you and the Governor-General."

=====​

3 February 1984 - 7:30 pm
The Lodge
Canberra, ACT

Robert Neale, the Director-General of the National Archives, smiled as he took a seat in a plush couch in the library in the Lodge.

"Thank you for a nice meal, Prime Minister. Best bit of lamb I've had in awhile."

Prime Minister Hawke laughed.

"You're right. It was bloody good lamb."

A few awkward moments passed before the Prime Minister spoke again, now in a more serious tone.

"Mr. Neale, I brought you here tonight to ask you to head up a special project for me. You know the world is going to shit and that the government is making plans for the worst. I want you to create a team with the directors of the War Memorial, National Gallery, Historical Film Registry, and any other museum you see fit to identify, catalouge, crate, and transport Australia's important documents and artifacts for safe keeping."

Robert Neale was stunned for a moment before he was able to muster out a question.

"Transport...transport them where?"

"The Broken Hill Ore Deposit. It can be moved there by rail You'll have the assistance of the military for loading, unloading, transport, and security."

Robert Neale stammered as a thousand thoughts raced through his head.

"Um...um...a mine. Well...that may not be the ideal place to store these..."

The Prime Minister interrupted.

"But its the best we can do for now. Hopefully, these things won't be down there for long, but it is essential that we preserve Australia's history and heritage."

The Prime Minister could see that Robert Neale was overwhelmed.

"I know its a big job, but I know you can do it. Australia counts on it."

As he left the Lodge, Robert Neale was able to regain his composure. A lot had been accomplished on this day, but there was still a lot more to do. Prime Minister Bob Hawke went to bed, dead tired.

 

[Cockroach]

"Salt mines in Western Australia. You'll have the assistance of the Army and Air Force to get the things loaded, flown out there, and unloaded."

Robert Neale stammered as a thousand thoughts raced through his head.

"Um...um...salt mines. Well...that may not be the ideal place to store these..."

The logistics of shifting things to WA are probably a bit too much bother. There's other mines (mainly coal...) closer to hand... it's probably easier to hoik things on a truck or train and send 'em up to, say, the Hunter Valley than to fly them to WA.

 

[Fred the Great]

Yeah, this is good work, so don't get me wrong, but no way would the federal government evacuate to Katherine. Have a look at a map. They're more likely to go to a regional centre in NSW or Victoria. Maybe Wagga Wagga or Albury. Perhaps Dubbo even.

And I agree that there are plenty of mines more appropriate. But you don't even need mines; just send everything to Tasmania - there's no way it's on the target list.

 

[LacheyS]

Great story! Haven't read the original, but I was aged twelve and living in Australia at this time, and had just begun to understand who the Soviets were, so very interested. Needless to say, enjoying the read so far.

There are apparently a lot of World War II bunkers scattered around the eastern coastline which might provide a controlled climate environment. We have three in my town of residence (two have fallen into disrepair and one wouldn't be fit for reconstruction, but one has been turned into an art gallery).

They may not be in any condition to store anything at this point in time, but a local told me they formed part of a network up and down the coast. They might form some use, even if not to store artwork.

Edit: BTW, the government might also evacuate to Jervis Bay if that isn't going to be a target. It remains within the Australian Capital Territory.

 

[Bernard Woolley]

I don't expect the army will have deployed anything at this time. I mean, against whom would they be deployed? Perhaps an increase in the rifle company commitment at Butterworth? That'd be it.

I'd agree with that, Fred. There wouldn't be enough time in the P&Sverse for any major Australian deployment overseas before the missiles start to fly.
What I would expect to see would be the army dispersing regular troops across Australia so that they would be preserved for the post-strike environment. I'd imagine that the Army Reserve would also be called up.

I would think that in P&S the main role for the Australia Army is going to be Defence Assistance to the Civil Community & Defence Force Aid to the Civil Power (linky).

Looking forward to reading more of this story.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Still in Aus in 1984, but decommissioned since 1982, and declared "not to be replaced" by the incoming Hawke government in 1983. Melbourne's final operational cruise was in 1981.

My 0.02 c for what it is worth.

I actually thought about this option and it really depends on the material state of MELBOURNE in TTL.

The benefit that MELBOURNE would provide in this scenario would be similar to SYDNEY during Vietnam, either a troop ferry or alternatively operating as a helicopter carrier. One way to get MELBOURNE back at sea would be when the government stops leave for all fleet units, that the Captain of Fleet Base East looks at as a planning operation what it would take to get MELBOURNE back at sea. Note getting MELBOURNE to sea and not as a worked up warship. That transition from a decomissioned warship to returning to the fleet would be a pretty good substory for P & S Australia IMHO.

On another note my thoughts about DARWIN is that 04 would come under the command of the USN Atlantic Fleet temporarily, which could turn out to be a lot longer than everyone expects. Particularly as I imagine the USN would be screaming for every possible escort to be provided for convoys across the Atlantic.

 

[Mumbles]

My 0.02 c for what it is worth.

I actually thought about this option and it really depends on the material state of MELBOURNE in TTL.

The benefit that MELBOURNE would provide in this scenario would be similar to SYDNEY during Vietnam, either a troop ferry or alternatively operating as a helicopter carrier. One way to get MELBOURNE back at sea would be when the government stops leave for all fleet units, that the Captain of Fleet Base East looks at as a planning operation what it would take to get MELBOURNE back at sea. Note getting MELBOURNE to sea and not as a worked up warship. That transition from a decomissioned warship to returning to the fleet would be a pretty good substory for P & S Australia IMHO.

True, but if the date of 3rd Feb as the date of leave cancellation is a given, that means getting a ship that hasn't been run or maintained or even crewed, for the better part of two years (and de-stored and mothballed in the interim) seaworthy in a matter of days. I'm not a marine engineer, but I'm not sure it's plausible. It's not entirely without precedent though, as the example of HMS Intrepid having the decomissioning process reversed for the Falklands conflict shows.

 

[Bernard Woolley]

On another note my thoughts about DARWIN is that 04 would come under the command of the USN Atlantic Fleet temporarily

More likely she'd some under SACLANT than a US national command, especially if Australia chooses to back NATO.

It's not entirely without precedent though, as the example of HMS Intrepid having the decomissioning process reversed for the Falklands conflict shows.

From a quick bit of reading it would seem that HMS Intrepid had only just started the decom process when the decision was taken to cancel it and recall her crew. OTOH HMAS Melbourne seems to have been in dock since 1981, after a planned refit was cancelled.
To me that suggests that Intrepid was still being maintained, while Melbourne may have sat unmaintained for quite some time. The accidental flooding caused by an officer impatient to get away on leave cannot have helped her material condition.

Melbourne may have been too far gone in 1984 to get back as an operational unit without a major refit (wiki suggests it would take 26 weeks to get her operational), which I doubt the RAN would want to expend resources on. As an accomodation vessel, however, she might have some use if she can be towed to somewhere safe.

 

[Fred the Great]

More likely she'd some under SACLANT than a US national command, especially if Australia chooses to back NATO.

ANZUS would be invoked. RAN ships would serve under USN command or NATO command; just depends what AO they were in at the time. I don't think there'd be a choice; we'd go along for the ride.