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If, say, the Union won a massive victory at Bull Run, capturing Richmond soon afterwards and causing the Confederacy to collapse in short order, the long-term state of race relations/ civil rights could be very different, both positively and negatively. A very short (and for the South, unpleasant but not physically disastrous) war might mitigate much of the bitterness that rendered the OTL South so intractable to change. On the other hand, a settlement so early in the war would necessarily leave slavery still a living institution, at least in the short term. Would a potential lack of southern postwar fanaticism make reconciliation, and, eventually, racial equality, easier to achieve, or would a slower death of slavery simply delay all progress with no compensating benefits? I know that this would generate massive butterflies, but what would the long-term trends be?
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