The Long Peace and the Big Troubles:
Prelude: The Dangerous Years 1914-17
In June 28th 1914 the Austrian heir presumptive Franz Ferdinand survived a clumsy assassination attempt by Serb nationalists in Sarajevo, the capital of the Bosnian province of Austria- Hungary. It was one of many incidents in Europe during the dangerous years 1914-17. The European Powers were divided in two blocks. United Kingdom, France and Russia formed the Triple Entente that which was mainly aimed towards Germany. Russia was worried about Germany's growing influence, and feared German designs on the western provinces of the Russian Empire, France wanted her lost territory of Alsace- Lorraine back, and wanted to once again become the sole dominant power of Continental Western Europe. The United Kingdom saw the emerging German fleet as a threat to their domination of the sea. Germany on the other hand formed a counter alliance called the Central Powers consisting of Germany, Austria- Hungary and Italy. However this alliance was much less stable. While German- Austrian and German- Italian relations were good, Italy and Austria considered each other rivals. Italy wanted Italian speaking territories in Austria- Hungary like Trento and Gorizia to become parts of the Italian nation. Austria on the other hand worried about the Russian supported states on the Balkans, especially Serbia, but also to a degree Romania. Both nations had territorial claims on the Habsburg Dual Monarchy, and Serbia had both Russian and French support. If Archduke Franz Ferdinand had been assassinated that day during the summer of 1914 the very powder keg that was Europe in the mid 1910s could have exploded.
To be honest the nations of Europe really wanted war. The military wanted to test the new advancements in weaponry that had been developed, and all believed they were eons before their neighbors in military technology research. The industrialists were worried about the rising threat of Socialism, and thought the workers needed patriotism and discipline, to remedy the Socialist illness. The old aristocracy wanted glorious battles and sweet victory and thought the world had been in peace far too long. The Germans officers thought they could beat both Russia and France in a couple of months if war broke out, while the French were sure they had learned their lessons from the Franco- Prussian war and could easily beat the Germans if opportunity came. It is actually really surprising the war never came.
Further incidents that nearly started a serious conflict were the Papua incident of March 1915 and the Gorizia incident of September 1915. The Papua incident was the result of dissatisfaction in Australia, esepcially in Queensland that the Australians only controlled the small territory of Papua on the island of New Guinea, and especially the German protectorate of German New Guinea north of the Australian part was disliked. In the minds of many Queenslanders, the German presence on New Guinea was a threat to their economic interests, and the whole eastern part of the island of New Guinea should be Australian. In early March 1915 an armed band of Queenslanders attacked the German wireless station of Bita Paka on the island of New Britain, a station the Queenslanders claimed was used to harass Australian trade. The assault failed of course, but many of the involved fled back to Queensland and Australian authorities declined to hand them over to the Germans. Berlin was furious, London shocked, but in the end none of them decided to take the issue further. Both London and Canberra condemned the attack and arrested the men who had fled back to Australia. Even if they were not handed over to the Germans, Berlin decided to let the issue rest after all of the attackers were behind bars. Of course at the time that happened Berlin had a much larger crisis on hand.
In September 17th 1915 the Italian daredevil and poet Gabriele d'Annuzio had together with a band of irregulars marched into the city of Gorizia on the Austrian side of the border and agitated the local population to rise up in a revolt against the Habsburg monarchy. D'Annuzio hoped he could get support from the Italian government, and when news of his adventure reached Italy many Italians cheered and considered him a hero. After the Austrian army had taken control of Gorizia, which alrady happened in September 22nd, and the city was placed under martial law and d'Annuzio and his followers arrested, the Italian government under the Conservative Prime Minister Antonio Salandra felt compelled by popular outcry to mobilize the Italian military and have it march to the Austrian border. In a note Italy demanded the release of d'Annuzio and his followers, but the Austrians refused even to discuss the matter. The Austrian government realized that this could set a dangerous example in a multi ethnic empire, and that all troublemakers had to be severely punished. Negotiating with Italy would only cause more people to follow d'Annuzio's example. The situation seemed to get out of hand, and Austria issued general mobilization. For Germany this was a disaster. The German alliance system was falling apart in front of them. The German Foreign Minister Gottlieb von Jagow had been sure Austria and Italy would not go to war while both allied to Germany quickly telegraphed Rome and Vienna to try to sort out the crisis. When it became clear in Rome that Germany would throw their support behind Austria if a war broke out, Salandra felt compelled to back down. This also resulted in his government collapsing and a new Giolitti government being formed. Even though war was avoided, the German alliance system was broken. In November 1915 Italy declared that they considered all their alliances with Austria and Germany being null and void and in January 1916 at a ceremony in Paris, Italy signed an agreement to join the Entente. The balance of power was changed, but war was avoided.
In 1917 however most Europeans were tired of the tensions. The demands of the working class in Western Europe as well as the demand for general reforms in Austria, Germany and Russia forced the European Great Powers to focus on internal policies. Meanwhile on the other side of the Atlantic, the 28th president of the United States; Woodrow Wilson sought a legacy. He had barely been able to secure reelection in the 1916 elections, but was mostly known for the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, something he was generally disliked for. The Republicans considered him a weakling for not taking a stronger stance against Mexico after the failed Pershing expedition 1916-17, while the left wing of the Democrats lead by William Jennings Bryan considered him a lackey of the bankers on Wall Street. Wilson was looking for something positive to define his second term, when he got an idea from one of his strongest political opponents. It was former president Theodore Roosevelt that first proposed that the US could play a role in diffusing tensions in Europe. Wilson took the bait and proposed a Conference for Peace and Cooperation to be held in Washington DC with the leaders of the European Great Powers. But the problem Wilson faced was that this could be considered a break of the Monroe doctrine that secured US isolationism, which was considered a Bible for foreign relations. Any signs of changing it would be opposed by both Democrats and Republicans and would be disliked by the public. Wilson was able to twist the question and declared a conference for peace was the only way to save the Monroe doctrine. If war started in Europe the US would be under threat. The Republicans of course didn't buy it, and a group lead by the senator from Ohio Warren G. Harding publicly criticized Wilson for breaking the Monroe Doctrine. But ultimately Wilson's standpoint prevailed. The left wing of the Democrats followed William Jennings Bryan, who endorsed anything that could lead to peaceful relations, even though he also had his doubts. In November 10th-19th 1917 Wilson hosted a Conference for the leaders of Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Austria and Russia, and to probably everyone's amazement all these countries sent high ranking officials, but everyone was also ready to talk. Britain was represented by the Foreign Secretary sir Edward Grey, Germany by Foreign Minister Arthur Zimmermann, France by Prime Minister Aristide Briand, Italy by Prime Minister Giovanni Giolitti, Russia by Foregin Minister Boris Stürmer and Austria by the new emperor Franz Ferdiand I. The document, the so called Document for Peace and Cooperation was hailed as the “achievement of a life time”. The European Great Powers promised to respect each other's borders, decrease mobilization and disarm parts of their military. The famous words “No war in our time” was issued of Wilson when he showed of the signed document to journalists. Wilson had got his great achievement and the European Powers an excuse to shift focus to internal matters. The easement of tensions ended the Dangerous Era, but instead sparked the Era of Reforms 1917-1921.