The Little Giant: Finland Victorious in the Winter War

Introduction
The Little Giant: Finland Victorious in the Winter War


During-Operation-Barbarossa-Germans-Fought-To-Take-Port-Of-Murmansk-4.jpg


-Finnish Troops and Swedish Volunteers enter the Soviet town of Repola in the 1942 Winter Counter Offensive

"...77 years ago, the Karelian War (also known as the Soviet War of Aggression against Finland) [1] began with the Soviets invading Finland in order to force the upstart Finns to cede the Karelian Isthmus and the Gulf of Finland islands to the USSR. Despite the fact that Stalin gave his generals months [2] to prepare the necessary logistics and supplies to crush the Finnish Armed Forces, the Red Army would face its master in the tiny, sparsely populated nation in the north. Finland, a nation of 3.5 million people at the time, fended off the mighty Russian Bear for a full eight months and ultimately forced the Soviet Union to kneel at the negotiating tables. The world watched in stunned silence as the Soviet Union signed the Peace of Leningrad to cede parts of East Karelia and Kola after the Red Army's failure to break the Mannerheim Line, the freezing winter, and the Finnish counteroffensives in the northern and central fronts. The peace did allow the Soviets to claim Finnish territory up to the Mannerheim Line, but the war resulted in the loss of face of the Soviet Union, the unexpected death of Stalin, and another purge that resulted in the destabilization of the Red Army, which allowed Germany to advance deeply into Russia and even capture Moscow (Finland did contribute to the German offensive by breaking the Siege of Leningrad with troops and supplies, but stayed fairly neutral afterwards [3]).

The Allies weren't too pleased with Finland's actions during the Second World War, but left the Finns to their own accord when the war finally came to an end in 1946. Even though Finland was partially blamed for the quick German successes and the breakdown of the Soviet troops during the Second World War, their unrelenting bravery and successes (in addition to their alignment with the Allies later on in the war were still respected by most countries (except the Russians, who were bitter that Finland managed to keep its occupied territory).

Many people wonder just how different the Second World War would have turned out if the USSR was victorious during the Karelian War, but historians generally agree that Finland was well prepared and motivated to defend. Some historians and professors argue that the Soviet Union might have won if they invaded in the winter of 1940 [4]. However, these arguments are usually refuted and countered by the fact that Finland's plans and preparations, even if it was limited or ineffective, were not the ultimate deciding factor and the Soviets would've been bogged down in the marshes and forests while the Finns would've fought off the Soviet invaders using guerrilla warfare.

Thus it was no surprise that the world gave Finland, possibly one of the most important nations in WW2, a new nickname after the Second World War; "The Little Giant...""

-Introduction of Finland's Second War for Independence.

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[1] - The war doesn't begin in the winter, thus the "Winter War" doesn't really apply to TTL's version of the Winter War.
[2] - The Winter War ITTL begins on June 2nd of 1940, 6 months later than OTL.
[3] - Unlike OTL, the Finns actively participate in the Siege of Leningrad and help the Germans cut off any aid to the besieged city (instead of cutting of parts and allowing small amount of aid to flow into Leningrad). As a result, Leningrad actually falls ITTL as the Finns, seeking full revenge and wanting to fully secure Karelia, offer the Soviets stuck within Leningrad a chance to surrender and fight for Finland. And with the early fall of Leningrad, this frees up nearly 500,000-700,000 men to participate in other offensives.
[4] - Finland begins preparations for war early on in the 30's and have several key changes in their military and equipment/supplies before the war begins, thus enabling Finland to beat back the Red Army.

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This will be a TL that I will be working on with one of my friends from college. This idea mainly popped into my head after reading about the Winter War and researching various PoDs and ideas that could have affected the overall result of the Winter War.

This will not be a "German victorious in WW2," but more of a "Germany does much better than OTL and the Allies barely grind out a victory." This will be a bit of a Finland-wank and a communist screw (due to the war turning out a lot differently).

Hope you do enjoy this TL.

 
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I followed the build up of this on the other thread. This looks promising and I will look forward to the next update.
 
Seems interesting. Continue.

Thank you :)

I followed the build up of this on the other thread. This looks promising and I will look forward to the next update.

The build up is real. Let the TL begin...


The Winter war began in November of 1939, so it would actually begin almost 18 months later than OTL in this ATL.​

I fixed that. It was a simple typo. TTL's Winter War begins in the summer of 1940.
 
Have you read CanKiwis rather comprehensive tl? About a more successful Finland in the winter war, and imo it is also an excellent reference source.
 
This seems interesting but also very, very unlikely. I am not going to say ASB unlikely as I feel that the abbreviation is often thrown about much too lightly, but still I think that 1940 Finland definitely could not last eight months against the USSR without direct support from one or several major nations. It is simply a matter of resources - the USSR, as is well known, had reserves in spades. Finland didn't.

And then, if you have major changes in the Finnish defence since the early 30s, that will create knock-on effects and butterflies also outside Finland. The Soviet Union will not treat a Finland that seems like a serious opponent like it did in the Winter War IOTL - a virtual pushover. It would prepare for a real war, unlike in late 1939 IOTL when the only side that came prepared for an actual war was the Finnish Army, poorly armed and resource-starved as it was.


Have you read CanKiwis rather comprehensive tl? About a more successful Finland in the winter war, and imo it is also an excellent reference source.

CanKiwi's TL is very comprehensive and he uses massive amounts of relevant literature and sources. His TL is also a massively unlikely Finland-wank, one that basically would require Finland to have thrice the population and resources it had IOTL, at the very least, as well as constant good luck and the foresight to make the right decisions time and time again. While I have nothing against Finland-wanks as such, and I don't want to disparage the huge, huge work CanKiwi has done with the TL, I am afraid his TL would be a better fit in the ASB forum than in Post-1900.
 
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Lets see how it plays out. Quite possible that Stalin Will find it hard to commit too strongly after the Fall of France?
 
A pan-Scandinavian Defense Pact could produce large numbers of Swedish-speaking (Swedish was the second language in Finland) "civilian" volunteers to build concrete bunkers, railroads, etc. to move supplies towards Finnish soldiers defending East Karelia.
Given sufficient warning, Swedish railway construction crews could extand rails closer to the border.
With massive stock-piles, bomb dumps, etc. along the Swedish/Finnish border, re-supply would be comparatively quick.

On a related matter, how good were pre-war rail links across the Norwegian/Finnish border?
 

cgomes

Banned
And I thought that "defeated but counted as a winner by the internet" was the best result finland could ever hope for.

Let's see, watched.
 
Wow. Finland winning the Winter War, without the benefit of winter against the southern troops? That's truly impressive even by my Finland-fanboy standards.

What I'd like to see is Mannerheim letting the Allies quietly know that Finland's only in the war for territorial security (as OTL; OTL many Finns harbored at least a degree of distaste and extreme reservations about the Nazis, and Mannerheim had the balls to start smoking in an enclosed space with Hitler to make sure he could get away with not sending Hitler any help) and either bowing out when the Soviets are too exhausted for Winter War 3.0 and the Nazis are falling to sustained carpet-bombing by 'Murica, or even actively helping the Allies by helping topple Quisling's assholes in Norway. Either way, this is a awesome concept and I await more eagerly!
 
I think we need a Nordic defence pact, of course the creation of such a pact will demand the Soviet pretty much behave as idiotic as possible against all the Nordic countries, threaten all the countries. Of course this will also mean that Denmark and Norway are invaded by Germany, the question are how they western allies will deal with all the Nordic Countries being German co-belligerents against USSR.
 
And I thought that "defeated but counted as a winner by the internet" was the best result finland could ever hope for.

Let's see, watched.

Finland could've done much better actually. Of course, in OTL, Finland did the absolute best it could with the equipment it had in hand and the Soviets were quite terrible. This TL will maximize Finnish strengths while downgrading the Soviet's strength, allowing the upstart Finns to prevail.

Wow. Finland winning the Winter War, without the benefit of winter against the southern troops? That's truly impressive even by my Finland-fanboy standards.

What I'd like to see is Mannerheim letting the Allies quietly know that Finland's only in the war for territorial security (as OTL; OTL many Finns harbored at least a degree of distaste and extreme reservations about the Nazis, and Mannerheim had the balls to start smoking in an enclosed space with Hitler to make sure he could get away with not sending Hitler any help) and either bowing out when the Soviets are too exhausted for Winter War 3.0 and the Nazis are falling to sustained carpet-bombing by 'Murica, or even actively helping the Allies by helping topple Quisling's assholes in Norway. Either way, this is a awesome concept and I await more eagerly!

Oh don't worry, Finland won't be completely Axis for the war. It'll join the Allies much later on when it's clear that Finland is secured from any further external threats.

Finland isn't stupid and will play the ball game smartly. That's how they survived in OTL after all.

If Finland "wins" the Winter War, Finland will not fear Soviet attack so much, and will stay out of the Continuation War.

Actually, I believe Finland will be even more motivated to join in order to fully secure its borders (occupy Murmansk and East Karelia provinces fully) while the Soviet Union is down and cut off Leningrad, a crucial port city that is a dagger directly to Finland's throat.

That way, Russia can't challenge Finland up in the north and Finland will only need to face the Soviets in two narrow fronts instead of 3 wide fronts.

I think we need a Nordic defence pact, of course the creation of such a pact will demand the Soviet pretty much behave as idiotic as possible against all the Nordic countries, threaten all the countries. Of course this will also mean that Denmark and Norway are invaded by Germany, the question are how they western allies will deal with all the Nordic Countries being German co-belligerents against USSR.

I doubt a Nordic defense pact can be established even with friendlier governments in Sweden and Norway. The thing is, most of the Nordic countries during this time are strictly neutral and for them to break neutrality and go their own way is quite dangerous for them. Most likely, Finland will have much closer ties with the Norwegians and Swedish ITTL in terms of trade and military cooperation.
 
Part 1
The Political Revolution: Finland's Political Arena during the early 30's

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-Vaino Tanner, the third president of the Republic of Finland, as he demands the rebels to lay down their arms over the radio.

When the New York Stock Exchange crashed in 1929, Finland was one of many nations that was hit hard by the sudden world wide depression. In fact, Finland was one of the biggest losers during the early days of the Depression due to its agrarian economy that depended heavily on its domestic lumber industry. Finland experienced rapid growth throughout the 20's due to its large and extensive lumber trade and the growth of industry within its borders. However, two important events changed the Finnish economy. The first event was the already mentioned Great Depression. With the declining need for wood during the Depression, Finland's economy began to stagnate and exports shrunk rapidly. The second event was the entrance of the Soviet Union into the lumber industry just before the Depression, which allowed the Soviets to have an effective monopoly on the price of timber. The USSR dropped the price of timber like a rock and Finland, whose output was only a fraction of the Soviet Union's output, was unable to compete in the new playing field. The two events made the Finnish economy enter a recession and saw the output of industry and trade drop sharply, a staggering 10% industrial output decrease and 20% foreign trade decrease between 1930 and 1931. As a result, the need for reform grew more than ever in order to cushion the Depression and transform Finland's economy into a more developed one.

Unfortunately for Finland, the Finnish Parliament, controlled by the centrist Agrarian League, and the Finnish President Lauri Kristian Relander were rather unresponsive to the situation. President Relander was an inexperienced politician who had no particular goals or agenda. According to legends, the second president of Finland responded to the news of the economic meltdown across the world by saying, "So what?" Both the parliament and the president expected that the Depression would not last long in Finland and that Finland's economy would bounce back immediately. In a way, they were correct, but most historians agree that the inaction of the Agrarian League prolonged the economic difficulties of the early 30's and the recovery only truly began after the 1930 Parliamentary and 1931 Presidential elections.

The people of Finland generally favored the Agrarian League after the rocky presidential administration of Finland's first president Kaarlo Juho Stahlberg, who led the left leaning National Progressive Party. Under the government led by the Agrarian League, Finland's economy grew by 5% annually and industrial output began to climb on its own, as the Agrarian League supported decentralization. The economy boomed on its own and the populace was satisfied with the growth and pace of the economy. This bubble was shattered after the Depression began, as the Agrarian League's lax policies proved to be ineffective with dealing the situation. As Finland's economy began to slide due to the collapse of trade and the lumber industry, the farms in the rural areas were also affected heavily by the decline. When it became clear that the Depression wasn't ending any time soon, the rural and urban areas began to turn on the centrist Agrarian Party and began to clamor for economical reforms that would revitalize the ailing economy. In addition to the economy, the Agrarian League also failed to condemn the Lapua Movement, a far right nationalistic movement that terrorized towns by assaulting and kidnapping suspected communists and left wing politicians. Despite the backlash the Lapua Movement received from the public, the Agrarian League was rather silent about the issue due to many moderates within the party support the Movement [1]. This additional factor contributed to the decline of the Agrarian League and the rise of the Social Democratic Party to the national stage.

The Social Democratic Party was a left leaning party that believed that the lax policies of the Agrarian League would prove to be the downfall of Finland and the beginning of slow growth or a recession. The SDP was a party that believed that international trade was vital for Finland and the balance of rapid industrialization and expansion of agriculture must be maintained for Finland's future. With the Agrarian League refusing to compromise with most of the opposition, it was unable to pass reforms in Parliament due to the lack of support and the inaction of the president to intervene. Thus the Social Democratic Party began an active campaign to bring the workers and rural voters on to their side by promising economic reform that would promote local agricultural growth and the increase of industrial development. The SDP also began to bring some of the moderates into their fold by promising to reel in the far left Communists and be more open to compromise and reforms in Parliament. Also, the party heavily appealed to the general populace with its promise of a national healthcare reform and welfare for the struggling citizens of Finland, which was a large percentage of lower and middle class people at the time. Finally, the SDP also appealed to the Swedish minority by promising closer ties with the Nordic countries to improve the economic situation and allow greater cooperation between the countries. Combined with the unpopularity of the Agrarian League, the 1930 Emergency Parliamentary Elections proved to be a gold mine for the Social Democratic Party.

President Relander, bowing under the pressure of the far right nationalists of the Lapua Movement [2], dissolved the Parliament and called for new elections in order to fill the Parliament up with centrist and right winged politicians in order to pass an amendment (which needed 2/3rd of Parliament to agree upon) to suspend the communist party in Finland and begin on a crackdown on communists. Despite the rising popularity of the Social Democratic Party, the president and members of the Agrarian League believed that they would be able to maintain their hold on Parliament and the people would support the crackdown of communists. What they failed to realize was that the people had no interests in the communists at the time. The communists were used as scapegoats in the past, but the people of Finland were angry at the administration for doing nothing in the face of suffering that the Finnish people endured during the economic down years. On October 1st and 2nd, thousands of Finns released their anger of the current government and placed their hope in new reforms by voting for the Social Democratic Party. Due to their appeal to both rural and urban voters, along with the struggles of the Agrarian League, the SDP won a stunning victory over the Agrarian League by winning 81 seats (capturing 427,231 of the votes) [3]. This was a surprising loss, as the Agrarian League lost 8 seats (from 60 to 52) and only won 304,482 of the votes. Most parties also suffered losses, with the Swedish People's Party losing 1 seat, and the National Progressive Party losing 1 seat. The elections infuriated the members of the Lapua Movement, making the Movement quite popular among the more right winged voters and politicians. Within months of the election, the membership of the Lapua Movement would nearly double as more left wing politicians and voters were assaulted, dividing the nation between a fine line.

dyxget.png

-Finland's Parliament after the 1930 Parliamentary Elections.

Social Democratic Party: 81 seats

Agrarian League: 52 seats

National Coalition Party: 34 seats

National Progressive Party: 13 seats

Swedish People's Party: 19 seats

Small Farmer's Party of Finland: 1 seat



Despite the majority in Parliament, the refusal of President Relander to cooperate forced the SDP and its allies to wait for the 1931 Presidential Elections. During the time between the Parliamentary elections and the Presidential elections, President Relander focused on sabotaging his opponents' campaign when it became clear that he wouldn't be the candidate for the Agrarian League [4]. However, despite his best efforts, the rising violence of the Lapua Movement and the refusal of the Agrarian League and National Coalition Party to compromise led to the widespread support of the SDP's candidate Vaino Tanner, a former prime minister that promised reforms that would make sure to make Finland economically and internationally stronger. His promise of industrialization, development of agriculture, closer ties with neighboring countries, and an anti-Soviet stance. His political views and stance made him quite popular with the moderates, mainly due to his promise of reforms and his hard line stance against the Soviet Union. This allowed Tanner to distance himself from other candidates and take an early and wide lead in the polls. On January 15th and 16th, Vaino Tanner won the elections against the National Coalition Party's nominated candidate Pehr Evind Svinhufvud by grasping 161 electoral votes compared to the 139 electoral votes that Svinhufvud received.

Kotka1928maydayTO.jpg


-Members of the Lapua Movement protesting against the newly elected president.

The Lapua Movement would explode into a riot across the countryside and even attempt a hastily coup d'etat on January 10th of 1930 after it was confirmed that Tanner won (due to their anger of a "left leaning communist lover" being voted into office) [5]. Major General Kurt Wallenius, a secret military leader of the Lapua Movement, led some of the members of the Movement to capture the newly elected president and force the government to accept Svinhufvud as the new president. However, the newly elected President Tanner gave a rousing speech to the Finnish people, condemning the rebels for "rebelling against the spirit of the nation and people in this time of need." The public favor swung in favor of the new administration and the rebels were subsequently captured and imprisoned. President Tanner didn't ban the Lapua Movement, but made sure that the extremist elements were closely watched to prevent any wide scale rebellions [6]. However, President Tanner did not manage to arrest all the radical elements, as many members of the far right Lapua Movement began to organize members of the White Guard and disgruntled right wing members to overthrow the government...

President Tanner, the third president of the Republic of Finland, was faced with a rather divided nation that was struggling economically. Despite the obstacles in front of him, President Tanner's efforts, combined with the Parliament, allowed Finland to escape the dangers of falling deeper into the Depression and led to the beginning of the rapid growth and industrialization of Finland.....

But not without a major escalation between the right and left...

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[1] - There were many moderates within the Lapua Movement, but they left the party after the kidnapping of the first president of Finland that the Movement carried out. However, ITTL, that never happens and the Lapua Movement is never officially condemned by President Relander. The PoD here is that the Lapua Movement never kidnaps the first president, thus never being seen as a fully radical right wing group. As a result, the Agrarian League is still strongly tied with the group and the constant terror the Movement brings to the people slowly angers the populace against the Agrarian League.

[2] - As per OTL.

[3] - In OTL, the SDP does take more seats than anyone, winning 66 seats in the 1930 elections. However, ITTL, the SDP promises better reforms and appealed to the disgruntled workers and farmers, who were deeply affected by the Depression. As a result, ITTL, the SDP reaches out to the poor and middle class while the Agrarian League makes a series of blunders (inaction which actually happened in OTL, not condemning the Lapua Movement, turning a blind eye to the people's needs) that leads to their major loss in the elections.

[4] - Similar to OTL. President Relander sabotaged Kaarlo Juho Stahlberg of the National Progressive Party, which allowed Pehr Evind Svinhufvud of the National Coalition to be elected. ITTL, Tanner is the major candidate and the SDP's popularity has grown significantly (Though things are not nice and happy in Finland. War might come early...).

[5] - This also happened in OTL, though this is two years early. However, it is likely that the Lapua Movement would rebel due to their hatred of communists and their support of Svinhufvud, who loses ITTL. However, the Lapua Movement is nowhere near dead and will rise again in the near future...

[6] - In OTL, the Movement was completely banned under the Protection of the Republic Act.
 
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Thanks for the update. I do know a lot of Finnish history or politics, so this chapter was nice to have and the footnotes add that much more information.

The Lapua is ok for now, but I think they will step out of line and get smacked for their transgression.
 
Thanks for the update. I do know a lot of Finnish history or politics, so this chapter was nice to have and the footnotes add that much more information.

The Lapua is ok for now, but I think they will step out of line and get smacked for their transgression.

It took me a while to research Finnish politics, since the political field is quite diverse and fluid.

Lapua will definitely cause more trouble later on. Stay tuned...
 
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