The Little Engine that Could - a TL about a stronger Netherlands

Anton Mussert, HERO OF THE RESISTANCE?!

Seriously, I think with more determined resistance from the Dutch,
it is, as I mentioned in an ealier post, liklely that France might
not formally surrender and evacuate to Algeria.

More troops tied up in the Low Countries means fewer in France,
and the fact that the Dutch ITTL designed their plans etc around
a defence in depth strategy could mean an earlier adoption of the
"Hedgehog" defences.

Are you planning to make the Free French a more credible military and
political force here? Maybe Mers el Kebir and the attempts to win over France's African holdings might turn out differently here.

Still, with Shcmit, do you mean he was promoted from Captain to Colonel
or from Colonel to a General rank?

Still, good work, the DEI and Malaya ITTL are going to be ... interesting.

P.S. Never knew Mussert had an older brother.
 
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Anton Mussert, HERO OF THE RESISTANCE?!

Seriously, I think with more determined resistance from the Dutch,
it is, as I mentioned in an ealier post, liklely that France might
not formally surrender and evacuate to Algeria.

More troops tied up in the Low Countries means fewer in France,
and the fact that the Dutch ITTL designed their plans etc around
a defence in depth strategy could mean an earlier adoption of the
"Hedgehog" defences.

Are you planning to make the Free French a more credible military and
political force here? Maybe Mers el Kebir and the attempts to win over France's African holdings might turn out differently here.

Still, with Shcmit, do you mean he was promoted from Captain to Colonel
or from Colonel to a General rank?

Still, good work, the DEI and Malaya ITTL are going to be ... interesting.

P.S. Never knew Mussert had an older brother.

I was unsure about whether France would surrender or not, but I'll change it. Anyway, I'll put it in. As for the promotion bit, I was thinking major but accidentally typed captain :eek:

EDIT:

Note to everyone. I edited the last chapter to have France fight on! So no cheese eating surrender monkeys ITTL :p
 
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I was unsure about whether France would surrender or not, but I'll change it. Anyway, I'll put it in. As for the promotion bit, I was thinking major but accidentally typed captain :eek:

EDIT:

Note to everyone. I edited the last chapter to have France fight on! So no cheese eating surrender monkeys ITTL :p

Great, I love France not surrendering. That makes it a lot harder for the Japanese too, as they don't have French Indo China to use as a jumping board.
 
Again not to sure about Schmidt's promotion (sorry about the spelling in previous posts), Colonel outranks Major, which in turn outranks Captain, so is he promoted from Colonel to Major-General (in your face Charlie!:D)?

Still, Anton Mussert, HERO OF THE DUTCH RESISTANCE. maybe ITTL a "Mussert" is the opposite of a "Quisling". Cue cartoon in Punch, Hitler standing over a map of Europe shaking his fist shouting "I want that Mussert's head!" and a General saying "Very good sir, what's this fellow's name?."

Still that one tiny blip aside, this is shaping up to be good timeline, and one with a POD I can't even remember being raised here or anywhere else.

Looking forward to the next chapter.
 
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Again not to sure about Schmidt's promotion (sorry about the spelling in previous posts), Colonel outranks Major, which in turn outranks Captain, so is he promoted from Colonel to Major-General (in your face Charlie!:D)?

-snip-


Gah, still got it wrong. Oh well, I got it right now I think. He's a brigadier-general
 
Excellent!

Still, it would be interesting to see what TTL's readers think of Alex Stewart's writing style as a historian.
 
Well, what an educational site AH can be sometimes. Never heard of this Anton Mussert before, so I looked him up.

Looks like the determined resistance the Netherlands put up to the Germans in the first war ITTL saved the man's soul! Apparently his experiences during the first war caused him to define Dutch patriotism in quite different terms TTL.

Apparently he was quite the inglorious weasel OTL; plotting to kidnap the Queen as part of a scheme to lay low Dutch resistance to a German takeover, and then after the post-war tribunal condemned him to death begging to that same Queen for his life! :rolleyes:

I better understand the astonishment of everyone better informed than me now!
----
Also I'm glad I have a very comprehensive book of fighter aircraft or I'd have had trouble visualizing what a DXXI or G fighter looked like! I've always wondered what the G's would have been like in proper combat.

I'd copy and upload the three-view from that Wikipedia article but I am not sure that would be kosher legally, to just re-post someone else's image like that even though I'd credit it. Guess people can click over and see the article for themselves. But do you have any more exciting images? I've seen several in print.

So, either Anthony Fokker did flee Germany, returned to the Netherlands with his good Dutch name intact at any rate and that name was good enough to get him resources to turn out warplanes for his homeland during the Great War, or his firm survived the disgrace of its founder being seen as a traitor?

I suppose the former is what happened. Which by the way would have a huge effect on Germany's WWI air forces; growing up a "Fokker" was pretty much equivalent in my mind to "German WWI fighter plane!" Presumably either the Germans simply stole whatever designs he had to leave lying around when he fled, or more likely they simply went with more natively German firms all along, and Manfred von Richthofen and that whole lot flew completely different airplanes.

Actually, reading the Wikipedia article on OTL Fokker (the business) I wonder if Anthony Fokker also got a bit of a moral shot in the arm from his nation's noble struggle; OTL he seems to have been a bit shady during the War years and just after, what with "borrowing" someone else's gun-synchronizing mechanism, evading the eventual court-awarded patent royalty payments, and then moving back to the Netherlands owing a lot of unpaid taxes in Germany! Another wayward son redeemed then?;)
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
I'm not sure if the English Wiki is very fair on Mussert. I doubt that Mussert even knew if and when the invasion would take place, let alone that he planned to take the Queen captive. Mussert really wasn't the worst guy in the NSB. He wasn't even a real anti-semite and was forced to exclude the several hunderds of Jews who were members of the party by more extreme Nazis. Mussert was more of a Fascist anyway. If you want to know about real swines have a look at Rost van Tonningen and Feldmeijer.
 

Hyperion

Banned
Loosing close to 800 aircraft in the Netherlands, and no telling what other higher losses.

Even with the Germans winning in the end and forcing the allies to retreat to Africa or Britain, I think it is not unrealistic for a larger number of forces to be evacuated from Dunkirk, or possibly through ports and airfields in the south of France that aren't in danger yet.

Keep in mind also, for the British a big issue after the fall of France was not so much that they didn't have enough troops for a while, but that a lot of the equipment they sent to France was lost. While a lot of tanks and other large vehicles would probably still be lost, I could see it being possible here for a small amount of equipment being evacuated.

Another thing to consider, those 450 German fighters and bombers the Dutch destroyed, those are 450 aircraft that will not interfere with British ships evacuating at Dunkirk. Saving a number of ships from being sunk, even small craft, could allow for thousands or more men and a lot of equipment to be evacuated to Britain. Not a war winning scenario for the British and other allies, but for the rest of 1940, it makes things a bit easier.

Something else to consider, if the French are willing to fight on from North Africa, this push Italy out of Africa in 1941. Realistically, I don't think the British can go on the offensive from Egypt until around the time they did OTL, but here, I could see the French joining in with an attack from Tunisia or Algeria. I do not believe the French would have the armored forces to do something similar to what the British did with Operation Crusader, but I think it is very possible that the French could tie down a lot of Italian troops along the border, and maybe launch air strikes at targets in western Libya that the British do not have the range or aircraft to attack.

Last final opinion. If the French are willing to fight on from North Africa, this could make things considerably easier for the Royal Navy early on. Might this free up a second British aircraft carrier for the attack on Taranto?
 

Hyperion

Banned
After doing some research, I think you may have underestimated how badly the Dutch have damaged German plans against France.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_France#German_forces_and_dispositions

This give the number of Luftwaffe aircraft assigned to attack the Netherlands as roughly 830.

You have the Dutch shooting down 450 German fightes and bombers, and over 300 transports. Given the setup of this timeline, I don't think that that is impossible, but given that those losses would basically cripple the German air forces attacking the Netherlands, the Germans would either have to pull a great many units away from the French, or ceed control of the air, at least temporarily, to the Dutch. Need I say what that will do for the troops on the ground if the allies have even a day or two of air superiority to attack ground targets, shoot up columns of tanks, etc.
 
Personally i think the whole battleplan is highly unrealistic because in otl the netherlands was just attacked because it was considered such a push over.
I think that with a netherlands this good prepared they either will not attack or in much greater force. The result would be be much less troops available for a broad push.
An all out push into france would only be possible after the netherlands and belgium are finished, giving france more time to prepare. Additional the loss of men and material would be considerable.
The succes from otl might not be repeatable. Apart from all this I think a war taking place on the same schedule as otl is impossible, the netherlands got involved in the great war and with the extra battlefield the future no doubt changes considerably.
And history going roughly as otl is highly unlikely.
 

Hyperion

Banned
Worse.

After doing more searching, I've just figured out how screwed the Germans really would be in this setup.

He has the Dutch destroying around 300 Panzer IIs at a defensive line around a canal during the middle of May. The only Panzer division, the 9th Panzer divison, only had 141 Panzers, though I have no idea if or how many would have been attached to the infantry divisions.

Keep in mind, this does not include Panzers destroyed by air attack, due to the Luftwaffe having been crippled. This does not include others that where destroyed beforehand by Dutch ground troops elsewhere.

Simply put, if the Germans are going in at the beginning with the same forces they had OTL, those forces would be crippled.

I do think the damage inflicted is possible of the Netherlands prepares better, but the Germans would not have as much success period.
 
Part of the success of Blitzkrieg OTL, as I understand it, was that Hitler did reckon carefully--in his own way, which was not the way of the General Staff or conventional military thinking generally--on the forces he would have to defeat, and mustered those forces he deemed necessary to do the job in advance. In general the Reich achieved victory on his timetable in the first few years of the war, for the most part. (It was aggravating that the British didn't call truce on the timetable!)

So--for Onkel Willie to save the timeline, if he doesn't want it to be just "Stupid Hitler had a blind spot for the greater strength of the Netherlands and thus his whole war scheme was blunted and France never fell"--and we've got beyond that already, with the statement that France did fall though they fight on from Algeria--then the only way to square it is to suppose that Hitler did indeed muster more total force for the Dutch wing of the general attack plan on the West.

Where would he have got it and when? The main wiggle room I can see is that with a stronger Netherlands, in the political climate of the 1930s (with France and Britain dreading a second war and so temporizing at nearly all costs) Hitler might have been able to get away with more mobilization of German construction and force-building sooner, since the foreign political actors who gave him latitude for a buildup OTL would also take into account that Hitler after all faced a stronger West than OTL, and would therefore be justified in their view at seeking stronger forces for Germany sooner.

But I don't know to what extent this is constrained by the limits of economic rather than political possibility. If, OTL, Hitler did already drive Germany to the utter limits of productive capability, then no amount of motivation, or latitude granted by the Versailles/League powers, could have given him more troops, tanks, guns, and planes than he had available OTL--if that were the case, he would perforce have had to delay the whole war to allow more time to build up sufficient extra forces to account for stiffer Dutch resistance.

Meanwhile of course the British, French, and ITTL the Dutch were themselves busy upgrading their own forces, so it becomes very chancy--Hitler is trying to hit a moving target--perhaps in this case his pre-war political timetable of diplomatic conquest (at a discount on account of his intimidating manner ;)) would be slowed, to keep from alarming the Entente powers too much and too soon. Meanwhile of course the economic woes of the Reich continue to threaten to destabilize the whole regime, meanwhile the world slowly climbs out of the deepest trough of the Depression, meanwhile Hitler himself ages and he might die at any moment--the moment changes. If Hitler could possibly get the war going on OTL's timetable, he would.

Since ITTL the delay does not happen, OW's timeline depends on whether there actually was margin for a harder push for more men under more arms before the war in the Reich. If there was, it is still an open question whether that extra drive might have tipped the balance of political opinion in the West toward the conviction that war was inevitable and it was better to stop Hitler sooner than later.

FWIW my guess is, yes Hitler could have pushed even harder and got more material and men for his plans by September 1939, and yes, the main Versailles powers would have refrained from doing more than they did to stop him, so I guess it is possible.

As to just what forces the Germans had better have sent in to win eventually, on the timetable given already, I have to leave that to those who understand the mechanics of combat a lot better than I do!

My impression is, first of all the Germans did attack with more force than OTL, and second that they were indeed delayed and somewhat more decimated than they reckoned they would be--add to that that it is harder to clamp down on the Netherlands ITTL than OTL, what with all the resistance that perseveres. So while France is occupied, it does take longer and the surviving French forces withdraw rather than surrender en masse.

Presumably there are dire consequences for both Dutch and French civilians caught under the nervous thumb of more insecure Nazis than OTL. There is no Vichy for instance to interpose; all of France is a direct Reich-occupation zone.

Aside from the starker fate of these hostages to fortune, the Allies are indeed considerably better off at this point.

So--whether it is possible or not, depends on whether Germany could have been squeezed harder to produce the necessary forces in time. Given that the timeline can go forward!
 
the so-called “war to end all wars” – had finally ended and peace reigned over the battlefields of a devastated Old World. The geopolitical landscape had fundamentally been changed by this catastrophe: the Russian and German empires had ceased to exist and their successor states were shadows of their predecessors; Austria-Hungary was on the verge of collapse with the recent Czechoslovakian declaration of independence in February encouraged by President Wilson’s “Fourteen Points”; and the old venerable Ottoman Empire was also headed to a fall. Now a peace deal had to be handed to the defeated Central Powers.
My problem is you ignore all the Butterflies coming from a 1 year earlier end to the war.
German Kaiser remains in Germany, Austria-Hungary survives, Ottomans still Hold Syria/Palestine. US doesn't request Japan send troops to Siberia, etc.
 
Update time :D. I apologize for the long wait between updates, but this one is of significant length since it covers the rest of TTL's World War II.


Chapter 4: Expansion to World War, 1940-1945.


Part 1.

The Dutch royal family, cabinet and most of the armed forces’ leadership had succeeded in reaching British soil and there they formed a government-in-exile under the name “government of national unity”. The Dutch government continued military operations to resist Nazi Germany from there, contributing pilots to the Battle of Britain with Queen Wilhelmina’s blessing to begin with, something which earned the Dutch and their queen the amity of the British people and King George VI. The 110.000 strong Dutch force on British soil was reorganized into the Dutch Expeditionary Force though most of its stockpiles of ammunition and equipment had been depleted or had been left behind in the Netherlands. The DEF was re-equipped with Lee-Enfield Mk. IIIs to which the Dutch were already used to since they had been using it as their standard weapon since the mid 1920s. They were also equipped with Vickers 6-ton tanks, Cruiser Mk. II tanks, a handful of Matilda “infantry tanks”, new artillery, and some fighter planes to form the “Dutch Squadron” with.

Dutch Queen Wilhelmina was permitted to stay at Balmoral Castle in northern Scotland while the rest of the royal family went on to Canada. Her cabinet resided nearby as did her military commanders and it was here that in June 1941 that her government, which the Allies recognised as the only legitimate Dutch government, recognised the Soviet Union over the protests of the government-in-exile of now Tsar Alexei II who had succeeded his father as head of the House of Romanov in 1936. This led to a falling out and no real contact between the two royal houses would exist until princess Juliana ascended the throne in 1955 upon her mother’s abdication.

Some 12.000 re-equipped Dutch troops were dispatched to Sudan in September 1940 to help fight in the East African campaign and during this stage they were assigned to protect Port Sudan together with the 9th and 10th Indian infantry brigades. Some of these forces later partook in the surprise attack on Gallabat in November and also fought in the successful follow-up offensive toward the town of Metemma where they filled in partially for the British who had lost nine tanks, and the addition of Dutch forces allowed for the 9th and 10th Indian infantry brigades to simulate the activity of an entire corps with heavy communications, dummy airfields and dummy store depots, scaring the Italians who subsequently chose to maintain a defensive position. The Allied forces in Sudan gained the upper hand, also thanks to new equipment like the Hawker Hurricane which was superior to the Fiat CR.42 fighter that the Italians had and wreaked havoc among Italian bombers. Planning commenced on a large scale counteroffensive, which would have a northern and a southern front, to commence in January 1941. British troops, Dutch troops and some Belgian reinforcements from the Congo would attack from Sudan into Eritrea and then into Ethiopia proper. Southern forces would attack into Ethiopia directly from Kenya. A third force was an amphibious force that would retake British Somaliland. In 1941 the offensive commenced and that same month Emperor Haile Selassie returned and saw how the standard of Judah was raised once again. The first victory came at Bure and from there it went downhill for the Italian defenders who surrendered in October 1941. the Dutch navy notably participated in the invasion of British Somaliland by sending German-built battlecruiser Prins Maurits (part of the East Indies fleet) who used her 380 mm guns to shell the coastline. By then, however, a new threat was looming for the Dutch.

Dutch troops also fought alongside French and British forces in Egypt and Tunisia against Mussolini who attempted to take both colonies and utterly failed in doing so. Mussolini invaded both Tunisia and Egypt in September 1940 despite pleas from his generals not to do so since Italian logistics couldn’t handle it. Moreover, they advised a fully defensive strategy considering the two-front war they were waging, but Mussolini ridiculed and dismissed their concerns, convinced of Italian strength. Italian troops first advanced into Tunisia and initially all seemed well until these forces reached the Mareth Line between Medenine and Gabès. These powerful fortifications on a narrow front repelled Italian troops with ease, inflicting enormous casualties on the human waves with machine gun fire and artillery barrages. The French counterattacked with support from Dutch infantry and this smaller force succeeded in annihilating the Italian Fifth Army. Upon the surprise attack, many Italians surrendered in droves and soon hundreds of thousands were taken prisoner. The Battle of Sidi Barrani in Egypt followed a similar pattern. Franco-Dutch and British troops advanced into Libya from west and east and by October Tripoli and Benghazi were in their hands. Two months later the two fighting forces converged near Sirte and accepted the surrender of Italian forces in Libya. Hitler responded by sending over 280.000 men, or nearly 15 divisions, to defend Sicily from possible invasion (an invasion that was therefore postponed until enough men and materiel had been gathered which was November 1942).

In Asia, tensions with the Japanese were steadily rising as their goals of conquest in Southeast Asia became clearer as time passed, especially when Dutch forces joined in the oil embargo imposed by the United States. The 12.000 soldiers fighting in North Africa would remain as they were, but a great majority of the Dutch Royal Army saw redeployment to the Dutch East Indies. 80.000 soldiers were sent to the East Indies and they complemented the KNIL troops already there, forming a force with a troop strength of some 147.000 men. Dutch commander-in-chief general Izaak Reijnders designated general Henri Winkelman as the commander of Dutch troops in the East Indies, tasking him with the burden of holding the prestigious colony with limited means. Winkelman made a study and concluded that Dutch forces would be unable to hold the colony by themselves against Imperial Japanese forces. His defence plan was based on conducting a fighting retreat to the core regions of the colony, namely Java and Sumatra and hold out there for British reinforcements. While his superior Reijnders wasn’t particularly pleased with the plan, he agreed to it since he too understood the reality of Dutch inferiority in military might when compared to Japan. Three quarters of Dutch troops in the East Indies were withdrawn to Java and Sumatra with 60.000 men on the former and over 40.000 men on the latter and construction commenced on powerful defences. Both islands were economically important for Sumatra produced rubber and oil while Java was a major food producer, producing rice, maize and cassava which could feed Japan’s population. Dutch general Henri Winkelman began construction of inward defences (coastal defences were vulnerable to bombardment from enemy ships) on Java and Sumatra, building bunkers, casemates with artillery, camouflaged pillboxes with overlapping fields of fire, barbed wire and anti-tank obstacles while across the entire East Indies weapon caches were hidden to wage guerrilla warfare in the enormous jungles. Behind them a number of armoured assets were to be placed as a response force against any possible Japanese breakthroughs of Dutch lines.

The majority of the Dutch navy, which had seen significant expansion even during the Depression, was also redeployed to Batavia in the Indies for a force totalling one battlecruiser, one heavy cruiser, six light cruisers, 15 destroyers, 19 frigates, 26 submarines and assorted auxiliary craft for a force of more than sixty warships (including the submarines). Especially Dutch light cruisers were a powerful foe when compared to other ships their size with most of them being armed with nine 150 mm guns in triple turrets, thereby outclassing most ships of their weight category and age (some of the newer ones even had twelve guns in four triple turrets). The single Dutch heavy cruiser (Dutch designed, British built) in the Dutch navy commissioned in 1939 was also quite powerful, being modelled on German pocket battleships though somewhat smaller in size and firepower. The Zeven Provinciën as she was called weighed 14.000 tonnes fully loaded and had a main armament of six 254 mm (ten inch) guns in two triple turrets. All in all, the Dutch armed forces were as prepared as they could be.


Part 2.


The Japanese attack indeed took place as predicted on December 17th 1941, ten days after the attacks on Pearl Harbor which had brought the United States into the war on the Allied side. Japanese soldiers landed successfully near Miri, an oil production centre in northern Sarawak (on Borneo), with support from one battleship, one aircraft carrier, three cruisers and four destroyers. Air strikes took place across the whole of Borneo and several more amphibious landings took place near Seria, Kuching, Jesselton, and Sandakan between December 17th 1941 and January 19th 1942 and by then Japanese objectives on Borneo had been achieved. KNIL forces withdrew into the centre of the island and staged guerrilla raids from there, leading to harsh Japanese reprisals against civilians (regardless of ethnicity, thus driving many to join Dutch and colonial troops in the jungle). Australian-British-French-Dutch-American Command or ABFDACOM was formed under the overall leadership of general sir Archibald Wavell with Henri Winkelman in charge of all ground forces in the Dutch East Indies. Landings on the other archipelagos met with little resistance just like in Borneo and ended in Japanese success in mid and late January, but then the landings on Java and Sumatra commenced, thus starting the “Java and Sumatra Campaign” which is seen as separate from the other battles in the Dutch East Indies. In the meantime, small French forces in Indochina inflicted heavy losses on the Japanese, but were too small to prevent the fall of the colony and were compelled to surrender when Thailand joined the war on the Japanese side.

The British, Australians and Americans sent additional support shape of two seaplane tenders (USS Langley and Childs), two heavy cruisers (USS Houston and HMS Exeter), four light cruisers (USS Marblehead and Boise, HMAS Hobart and Perth), 22 destroyers and 25 American submarines as well as 8.000 Anglo-American ground troops to support the efforts of the KNIL. France event sent battleship Richelieu. Allied land forces totalled on Sumatra and Java 155.000 men by early February and naval forces amounted to one battleship, one battlecruiser, three heavy cruisers, 10 light cruisers, 37 destroyers, 19 frigates and 51 submarines, giving the Allies a superiority in light units but an inferiority in heavy units. Japan had four fleet carriers, one light aircraft carrier, four battlecruisers (upgraded to light battleships), five heavy cruisers, three light cruisers, seven destroyers and assorted auxiliary vessels at their disposal in this theatre.

The “Java and Sumatra Campaign” commenced in February 1942 with landings near Semarang on the north coast of Java where the terrain was relatively flat. Dutch and American submarines attempted to interdict the landing with some measure of success, sinking one light cruiser and heavily damaging a heavy cruiser, putting it out of commission before they were compelled to leave by Japanese destroyer action, only to return in the company of the rest of the fleet and with air support, leading to a heavy battle known as the First Battle of the Java Sea in late February. The combined ABFDA fleets led by Dutch admiral Karel Doorman onboard flagship Prins Maurits engaged the Imperial Japanese flotilla that escorted the landing vessels which consisted of one light aircraft carrier, one Kongo-class battlecruiser, one heavy cruiser, one light cruiser and 10 destroyers. The engaging Allied force fought a seriously overstretched enemy with invasions across Southeast Asia and was larger, fielding one battlecruiser, one battleship, one heavy cruiser, six light cruisers, 19 destroyers, nine frigates and several submarines though no aircraft carriers while the rest of the fleet was further north near Sumatra. The fleet had air support from Fokker D.XXI fighter planes as well as a number of Fokker G.Is which had been converted for use as torpedo bombers, both stationed on Java. HNMLS Prins Maurits and battleship Richelieu engaged Japanese battlecruiser Kirishima, landing the first punch with two full broadsides of 380 mm shells which had serious effects. The German built World War I era warship had superior armour and firepower when compared to her adversary of similar vintage and had since been upgraded with additional deck armour (especially above the ammunition storage) and 12.7 mm, 20 mm and 37 mm rapid-fire anti-aircraft guns. Compared to Richelieu, Kirishima was seriously disadvantaged. Japan’s aircraft carrier suffered damage to her flight deck and lost a number of aircraft to enemy fire and fighter planes. In the meantime, battlecruiser Kirishima was heavily damaged by these shells and also torpedoes from enemy submarines. She sank after repeated bomb, shell and torpedo hits while Japan’s heavy cruiser, their light cruiser and several destroyers were sent to the bottom of the ocean. The commanding Japanese naval officer withdrew, leaving the initial invasion force stuck on the Javanese coast without fire support. Allied losses were also quite serious with Prins Maurits’ rear turret out of commission, the heavy cruiser having suffered serious bomb damage to her super structure, and the sinking of two destroyers and four frigates.

To the north, a battle was fought off the island of Lingga with more Japanese success. The Allies were compelled to withdraw and Japan’s troops took the island that lay off the coast of Sumatra. They started bombing Sumatra from there and landed troops successfully near Mandah right after the fall of Singapore which boosted Japanese morale. There some 40.000 Dutch and 2.000 Allied forces faced a Japanese invasion force of some 22.000 men who succeeded in establishing a beachhead because of regional air superiority. Though Dutch pilots fought bravely and downed over 300 Japanese aircraft over a period of five weeks, they were outnumbered and eventually had to concede air superiority to Japan. Before this, Allied forces had put up a decent defence, holding back the Japanese for ten days at Kumpeh and setting the oil facilities near Palembang on fire. While the naval battle was won by Japan, Allied ships and aircraft did manage to sink a significant number of troop transports headed for Singapore; this subsequently drew the battle out into a siege and screwed with Japan’s timetable, not to mention the fact that they had to transfer manpower from other fronts here to break Singapore’s powerful defences. Singapore was reinforced with the transfer of the Eighth Army and from here, the RAF would bomb Japanese positions in Malaya and Sumatra until Japan broke the siege at heavy costs in June 1942. Allied troops retreated into the mountain ranges on the east coast of the island where they would mount a successful defence in powerful defensive lines until their surrender in mid April and after that some units would continue with resistance in the shape of guerrilla war.

The initial invasion of Java had failed which led Britain, the US, Australia and New Zealand to send more reinforcements. In the meantime propaganda again exalted the David vs. Goliath motif, leading to sympathy for the defiant Dutch stance against Japanese aggression. There were some 60.000 Dutch soldiers on Java as well as 6.000 Allied forces. This force quickly increased – with the arrival of the 11th and 12th Indian infantry divisions, the British 17th cavalry brigade, the British 8th armoured brigade and Australian, American and New Zealand reinforcements – from 66.000 to around 130.000 men which meant that Japan needed to commit much more serious means which they did in late March/early April with the Second Battle of the Java Sea taking place on March 25th.

The Japanese deployed four battleships to the Java Sea, the repaired light aircraft carrier Ryujo, fleet carriers Akagi and Soryu, three heavy cruisers, two light cruisers, and 22 destroyers against the combined Allied fleet in the theatre made up of a single battleship, one battlecruiser, one heavy cruiser, seven light cruisers, thirty destroyers, twelve frigates and 49 submarines. A heavy naval battle erupted in which the Japanese forces clearly held the advantage in terms of firepower and airpower with much more heavy units at their disposal. The battle went disastrously for the Allies though it would prove to be something of a Pyrrhic victory for Japan. The Allied navy lost four light cruisers, one heavy cruiser, 13 destroyers and seven frigates with battleship Richelieu heavily damaged by aerial bombs while the Japanese lost two heavy cruisers, two light cruisers and five destroyers.

At the end of the battle commanding officer rear-admiral Karel Doorman ordered his heavily damaged flagship battlecruiser Prins Maurits to beach herself on the Javanese coast so her 380 mm batteries could be used as coastal artillery. Doorman would continue the war from elsewhere and be promoted to admiral and commander-in-chief of the Dutch navy until his retirement in 1949. He would then lead an inconspicuous life in retirement until his death in 1966 by which time he had a heroic reputation (even if he himself dismissed it). Two Dutch aircraft carriers bought from Britain post-war would be named in his honour. His crippled flagship would rest on the Javanese coast until the end of the war and would then be salvaged to continue use in the Dutch navy with sufficient upgrades such as additional armour, radar systems, improved targeting systems, anti-aircraft missiles and modern missile systems until her retirement in 1968 because of her age and the costs of operating her; she was then held in reserve as a training vessel until she was officially scrapped from the navy register in 1975 and was made a museum ship after around 45 years of active service.

Japanese troops then landed on Java near Batavia this time, in the hopes of quickly capturing the colonial administration and military command of ABFDACOM forces on Java, but they had already withdrawn to Bandung. Japan committed 75.000 men to the invasion of Java which meant that they were numerically inferior to the Allies, but with their aircraft carriers they gained air superiority. Batavia was quickly seized and the Japanese had hoped to use KNIL aviation facilities, but at the moment of the landings general Winkelman had ordered them to all be sabotaged, for fuel depots to be set on fire and for runways to be made unusable. He said he’d rather destroy the airfields himself than let the Japanese capture them intact. Japanese forces rapidly advanced from their supply bases around Batavia to the inland regions once they had restored Dutch airfields for their own use in mid April and had quickly gained aerial supremacy.

Bandung fell and the colonial administration relocated to Sindangbarang on the south coast, a city which was separated from the north of the island through a range of volcanic mountains and dense jungles. The part of the island north of these mountains and the Solo River was captured in two weeks though at heavy casualties against Allied defensive lines and with the loss of two thirds of Japanese armour even though they held air superiority. ABFDA forces conducted a fighting retreat in the mountains and jungles which gained them the admiration of even Japanese commanders for their determination.

In the end, evacuation was inevitable and so the remainder of the KNIL, governor-general Tjarda van Starkenburg Stachouwer and his family, and Allied forces left for New Guinea on May 15th 1942 after what historians and armchair military experts alike consider to be one of the most successful defences in the face of superior forces in modern military history. They also laud the in Anglophone countries often ignored pivotal role of the Dutch during this period.


Part 3.


The Empire of Japan seemed at its peak having defeated the Allies time and time again, but the truth was different. Japanese forces were at the end of very long supply lines across Southeast Asia and the unexpected difficulties in places like Singapore, Sumatra and Java – thanks to the commendable joint effort of the Allies – had thrown a wrench into their timetable and heavy resistance had inflicted losses on them they couldn’t afford. The Imperial Japanese Army had depleted its stockpiles of materiel, specifically armour and artillery, against the Allies who were superior in both categories of weapons. The navy hadn’t lost any significant amount of materiel though the loss of battlecruiser Kirishima at Dutch hands stung and they had fuel shortages; while they had captured oil facilities on Borneo and Sumatra, it would take weeks to get them operational due to sabotage by retreating British and Dutch troops. Also, many pilots and planes had been lost in the invasion and were replaced by inexperienced recently trained recruits which signalled a shortage in pilots that would be chronic by 1944. Moreover, they had already shown their true colours on Borneo when they had harshly retaliated against civilians to end the guerrilla war, driving potential anti-Dutch allies into the arms of the Dutch for lack of better options. Large scale guerrilla campaigns were particularly successful on West Timor and the Moluccas, centres of Dutch loyalists, and on Java where Indonesian nationalists led anti-Japanese efforts. Japan’s problems with overstretch showed based when ABFDACOM forces, mainly Dutch and Australian, successfully defended New Guinea, thus giving Allied forces a base which threatened Japan’s enormous southern flank. Japan’s losses made their success Pyrrhic at best and by now American encoders had succeeded in cracking Japan’s naval codes.

Both the Japanese army command and the admiralty insisted on the capture of New Guinea since they feared Allied attack on their forward bases in the Caroline Islands from there, specifically against Palau, and from there attacks on their main forward base on Saipan in the Mariana Islands. This led the navy to plan an ambush for the Allied fleets in the Bismarck Sea (leading to a decisive victory and peace) and then capture the Bismarck Archipelago as a beachhead and take New Guinea from there somewhere in July when stockpiles of fuel and materiel would have been replenished. Japan sent aircraft carriers Akagi, Kaga, Hiryu and Soryu along with battleships Ise, Hyuga, Mutsu and Nagato, seven heavy cruisers, eight light cruisers and 22 destroyers into this gamble with several more battleships and cruisers in reserve which wouldn’t see action. The United States Navy, having recovered her strength since the Pearl Harbor attacks, deployed aircraft carriers USS Yorktown, Enterprise, Wasp, Hornet, Saratoga and Lexington which hadn’t seen much action in the early stages of the war. In addition they sent the newly built battleships USS South Dakota, Indiana, Massachusetts and the older USS Colorado, twelve heavy cruisers, sixteen light cruisers and 40 destroyers. Besides this impressive force, Dutch and Australian aircraft provided air cover from New Guinea airfields and some of their light cruisers would serve in rearguard actions.

While Japanese admiral Yamamoto knew he was numerically inferior to Allied fleets as a whole, he also believed that the Allied naval leaders would anticipate a direct attack on the north coast of New Guinea and that they would therefore base their fleets there. The Japanese main strike force would pass them by far to the east and steam for the Bismarck Archipelago and then seize control of the island group and its airfields. The Allied fleets steaming southeast to relieve the islands would be attacked by the Japanese fleet and land based aircraft which would give the Japanese air superiority, allowing them to defeat the superior Allied force. Japanese long range bombers staged on the Moluccas would assist with additional air support, mainly against the US Navy’s heavily armoured battleships. The US admiralty could read decrypted Japanese communications and knew of Yamamoto’s plan and so they planned an ambush of their own to destroy the Japanese strike force. Carriers USS Saratoga and Lexington accompanied by battleship USS Colorado, three heavy cruisers, five light cruisers and 13 destroyers would position itself on the anticipated course of the main Japanese force. The Japanese were expected to engage this inferior force, named Force B, which would then retreat southward. The rest of the US fleet, named Force A, would then attack the Japanese in their flank from the east, driving them westward into the hands of land based aircraft and pre-prepared dense minefields into utter annihilation. Japanese and Allied operations commenced in mid July after delays on the Japanese side due to fuel issues.

As US admiral Chester W. Nimitz had correctly predicted, Yamamoto mistakenly believed he had discovered a diversionary force that was supposed to make him think this was the US main force and intimidate him into a withdrawal. He attacked Force B, compelling them to withdraw. So far, in Yamato’s eyes, things were going well, more so when he succeeded in sinking aircraft carrier Saratoga and damaging battleship USS Colorado severely. He was wrong as he soon discovered to his utter horror when the US main strike force under the command of Nimitz attacked him from the east. Very soon he was boxed in on the south and east by the US fleet and in the west by land based airplanes and sea mines. The end result of the extremely fierce and brutal battle for the Imperial Japanese Navy was the loss of all four aircraft carriers, two battleships, five heavy cruisers, six light cruisers and 14 destroyers, a devastating loss which decisively gave the Allies the initiative in the Pacific Ocean. The US Navy lost only one aircraft carrier and a number of smaller units while battleship USS Colorado was in need of repairs to her deck due to bomb damage.

This was the beginning of an island hopping campaign with the first target being Palau and by extension the rest of the Caroline Islands, as the Japanese military leadership had feared. In August 1942 the invasion of Palau commenced with a coastal bombardment by four American battleships who pummelled the island for days with 15 (381 mm) and 16 inch (406 mm) shells while four aircraft carriers established air superiority. The Japanese garrison consisted of the 14th infantry division, roughly 11.000 men, who fought against the 1st marine division and the 81st infantry division, or some 30.000 men in total which was a feat of logistical strength. The Japanese resisted fiercely in pre-constructed defences in a fanatical, sometimes suicidal fashion, resorting to using daggers, knives and samurai swords once they ran out of ammunition. Despite numerical inferiority, Japanese troops under Kunio Nakagawa held out for three months before their defences were overrun and the US declared a victory in mid November. At the same time, the US Navy attacked Truk Lagoon which was a forward naval base in the Caroline Islands, shelling it and bombing it heavily which compelled the Japanese navy to withdraw its heavy units, thus neutralizing this threat. On the insistence of general Douglas Macarthur, the next target were the Philippines even though this was criticized by those who saw no strategic value in taking the island archipelago.

Around this time, a turning point was taking place in Europe as well with British successes landings on Sicily, and the Soviet Union successfully launching a major counteroffensive at Stalingrad in the winter of 1942/’43 which would lead to the annihilation of the Sixth Army. On all fronts, the tide was slowly turning against Axis forces though in the Pacific persistent stormy weather delayed the invasion of the Philippines until February 1943. Landings took place on Luzon, Mindanao and Leyte between February and April 1943 and they encountered fierce resistance from the Japanese again. However, the remnants of the Imperial Japanese Navy were largely destroyed here which meant that Japanese garrisons could hardly be resupplied. The last organized resistance ended in June though small skirmishes would continue for months to come, but the US remained in control. It was around this time that Japan’s ally Nazi Germany was also dealt two heavy blows with the Italian surrender and the cataclysmic defeat in the Battle of Kursk.

With the Japanese decisively on the retreat, the other Allies also started to stage their own efforts against the Japanese independently of the Americans, seeing how Japan might be the first Axis member to be toppled. British forces in summer 1943 attacked into Burma and scored a success, capturing Rangoon by November which was not surprising since the cream of the Japan’s army was being diverted to the Pacific increasingly to stop the advance to the Home Islands which continued with the successful landings on Tinian and Saipan in August 1943 and their fall one month later despite a continued war of attrition against the Allies. The Allies decided to divide their attentions with the US focusing mainly on the Pacific and other Allied forces focusing on Southeast Asia. British forces took Bangkok in January 1944 and Thailand immediately switched sides to the Allies (no one bothered to enforce an unconditional surrender since it wasn’t considered worth the effort). British, French, Dutch and Australian troops landed on Ambon in March, beginning the Battle of the Moluccas which would end in May 1944 with Allied victory which allowed their air forces to bomb oil installations on Borneo and Sumatra while the US Navy already interdicted Japan’s fuel supply at sea. This deprived the Japanese navy of the fuel it needed and so it was mostly unable to interdict the landings on Iwo Jima which began in November 1943 and later on Okinawa. These battles would go down as the fiercest battles in the entire Pacific theatre with even the Japanese civilian population mobilized against enemy forces. Hostilities on Iwo Jima didn’t end until February 1944.

The Home Islands were now under threat and so the Imperial Japanese Army withdrew most of its forces here for a last stand. Malaya, Borneo and Sulawesi were therefore easily liberated in June. Java and Sumatra, however, would remain under Japanese occupation since troop concentrations here were higher than elsewhere in the Dutch East Indies and because Allied strategists deemed it of no strategic value to take them considering that they were no threat and couldn’t supply Japan with oil and food anymore due to Allied naval blockade.

Iwo Jima had fallen and so combined Allied forces now decided to commit fully to the invasion of the Home Islands which the Americans had dubbed Operation Downfall. As a prelude to the invasion, a massive bombing campaign started against Japanese cities. One thousand plane raids with incendiary bombs devastated most major Japanese cities and the fuel deprived Japanese air force could offer little opposition. Secondly, an invasion of Okinawa started in March 1944, very shortly after Iwo Jima which was another testimony to US logistical capabilities. In this battle from March to June 1944, the majority of the defending soldiers and civilian militias perished, but did inflict heavy casualties and slowed the Allies for weeks. Preparations for the final chapter of the Pacific War commenced with the gathering of the largest armada ever assembled in modern naval history with over 24 battleships, 48 battleships, 100 heavy and light cruisers, 22 frigates, and 450 destroyers with contributions mainly from the US and Britain, but also from France, the Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand. It superseded the smaller May 7th D-Day landings in Europe with sixteen divisions deployed rather than twelve against 21 Japanese divisions (though these were not adequately supplied with fuel and ammunition). The landings on Kyushu started in October and after three months of struggle against the Japanese army and guerrilla warfare, sabotage and suicide bombings by fanatically hostile civilian militias, the southern half of the island was under control. This was the first phase known as Operation Coronet that gave the Allies bases for medium and short range bombers for low altitude bombing of enemy positions on Honshu, the main target of the operation. Operation Olympic started in February 1945 and ended with the dramatic “Fall of Tokyo” and Japanese unconditional surrender in May 1945.

This occurred two months after the German unconditional surrender in March as well under the leadership of admiral Dönitz’s “Flensburg government”. Dutch troops headed by Queen Wilhelmina, the royal family and commander-in-chief field marshal Izaak Reijnders (after his promotion) triumphantly marched through The Hague, Rotterdam and Amsterdam while in Batavia general Henri Winkelman and colonial-governor Tjarda van Starkenburg Stachouwer returned with the KNIL in a show of force aimed implicitly at intimidating Indonesian nationalists which would lead to the next conflict.
 
Interesting, but I would have liked to see more detail on the European front.

But since I'm Dutch like you, I do like the concept of a Dutchwank, and can't say anything to you but 'keep up the good work'.
 
So what happened to the Manhatten project?

Everyone surrendered earlier, before the two operational bombs were ready. I'd have to research to see if the Trinity test even had time to go forward.

Presumably, having invested so much, at least one test does happen, unless the Japanese surrender is before the Los Alamos team can promise a fully operational bomb. I'm thinking there was, or at any rate will be, at least the one test, and it will impress the heck out of whoever sees it, probably enough so that the project continues and bombs get stockpiled.

Though I suspect the Fat Man And Little Boy movie had this much right--if the war ended without a bomb actually being used on the enemy than Leslie Grove's behind would be in a shredder! He made lots of enemies with his ultrasecret top-priority project and if it proved unnecessary to winning the war, he'd get no forgiveness. Of course if the Project goes on, he probably gets the refuge of continuing to run it, but without the big war on, how can Truman justify the huge budget?

Meanwhile, rumor of the secret weapon will slowly leak out in various distorted forms. For one thing it's a fact there were Soviet agents planted in the Project; they'd be writing actual reports for Moscow. So the one potential enemy the government would be most worried about would have essentially the inside scoop.

Meanwhile other rumors leak out to less connected (and generally, less antagonistic) governments, not to mention the press. Postwar, the Manhattan Project will have a paper trail a mile wide in terms of massive funds expended on classified purposes, stone walls, unexplained disappearance of prominent people, etc. Those big shot scientists can't be kept on ice forever either.

Sooner or later it is going to make sense for the USA to reveal what it's got with a public demonstration of some kind. Hopefully before the Soviets set off their own!
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OK, the Trinity test happened OTL on July 16. I see nothing in this timeline that could accelerate the Project's timetable and not really anything to retard it either. But with Japan throwing in the towel a good two months before the "gadget" was ready for a test, it is going to be awkward to justify keeping the team cooped up in secret hiding or spending the money on an undisclosed project, with the world now at peace.

A possible half-assed solution is for the Los Alamos team to slap together the "Little Boy" uranium design which OTL wasn't even tested in America before being used on Hiroshima, as a very quick way to get a bomb together for a demonstration much earlier than mid-July. Depending on the nature of (immediate) post-war politics, this could either be secret but with major Congressional leaders invited, to secure funding and continued secrecy for finalizing the Fat Man plutonium-implosion design, or semi-public with foreign leaders invited to influence the perception of the position of the USA in the post-war diplomatic environment. (Thus also securing Congressional support).

Of course the fears some Los Alamos scientists had that they might possibly set off a chain reaction in the atmosphere and eliminate all life on Earth were not really reasonable in view of similar concentrations of power being released by meteor impacts and the like (though those aren't nuclear events, so there isn't the neutron flux) and that a natural fission reactor did form in Africa in fairly recent geological times (this is where yellowcake comes from I think)--again this bed of self-enriching uranium ores is not really like an A-bomb going off either. So actually though we know now they shouldn't have worried about that, they were and there really wasn't a way to assure them things were safe--they were willing to risk a test, and deployment of actual weapons, because of the high stakes of the ongoing war on Japan. With that war ended, there would be dissent at Los Alamos about the wisdom of having an actual test, justification of the expense of the project be damned!

Leslie Groves is pretty much up the reeking creek. He'd probably get his "Little Boy" test rammed through perhaps before Japan surrenders, certainly within a week or so of that surrender.
 
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Singapore falls in April 1942?:confused:

With the reinforcements both from all 3 services you have a very strong positions (possibly with upgrades to Hong Kong as a defensive outwork, buying further time for preparation). However, the supply lines for Singapore are indeed tenuous to say the least, and this as much as incompetent leadership led to its OTL fall.

If you add OTL's Force Z to the ABDAFCOM fleet you might scrape together a force large enough to force convoys through a la Malta until a relief force can arrive (although if anything went wrong ...)

The same holds true for Burma, meaning that the Japanese offensive is likely to stall, with greater efforts to keeping the Burma road open (cue interesting times in post war China)

Politics generally is going to be interesting, the US will have a much weaker case for decolonisation (France and the Netherlands were utterly dependent on colonial manpower for their war effort). With France not falling and no huge panic, shipping/yard crisis etc, Britain is going to be much ITTL, and the Dutch seem to be a minor world power in the making.
 
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