The Lion's Roar: Kennedy '76

Assume that Chappaquiddick never happened, and that lightning strikes twice for the Kennedy clan, allowing Ted Kennedy to run for President in 1976 (I don't think any Democrat could have beaten Nixon in '72).

Does he stand a chance against Ford-or, if he loses the nomination, have a better chance of beating the unpopular Carter for the nomination in 1980?

Posted in memory of Senator Edward M. Kennedy, RIP at age 77.
 
Here a map for a close Kennedy-victory in 1976.

genusmap.php


I think Kennedys biggest handicap would be, that the south wouldn´t vote for him.
 
During this era there were a LOTof murder attempts on Presidents.

If E M Kennedy had run for the Democrat nomination in 1976 the odds of his being alive by 1980 do not look good, espcially given how attactive he would be to crazies...
 
During this era there were a LOTof murder attempts on Presidents.

If E M Kennedy had run for the Democrat nomination in 1976 the odds of his being alive by 1980 do not look good, espcially given how attactive he would be to crazies...

No kidding...someone would go after him just to say they bagged the third Kennedy. :mad:

Well, seems to me somewhat plausible, and that seems a plausible victory map on the surface. The hard part would be getting the nom when he's got the rep for being an arch-liberal. Still, maybe if Carter does worse and never emerges as the dark horse. Where's oakvale? He's looked quite deeply into this very election for his Pres. Brown TL.

And RIP, Ted. :( Despite my political differences with a lot of his stuff he was a hell of a Senator and American and a fixture of the nation.
 

Bearcat

Banned
No kidding...someone would go after him just to say they bagged the third Kennedy. :mad:

Well, seems to me somewhat plausible, and that seems a plausible victory map on the surface. The hard part would be getting the nom when he's got the rep for being an arch-liberal. Still, maybe if Carter does worse and never emerges as the dark horse. Where's oakvale? He's looked quite deeply into this very election for his Pres. Brown TL.

And RIP, Ted. :( Despite my political differences with a lot of his stuff he was a hell of a Senator and American and a fixture of the nation.

Arch-Liberal didn't really become a dirty word until after the Carter Presidency. Without Chappaquidick, Teddy would have a lot of sympathetic support from folks who remembered Camelot through rose-colored glasses. I think he'd win, and bigger than the map here.

But... even if some crazy doesn't shoot him, his drinking and womanizing in the White House is a problem. This isn't the 60s, pre-Watergate. Reporters won't wink and look the other way.

I see major scandal ahead. Even if he survives, his second term (if there is one) will be ugly and largely thwarted by the rise of the Reaganite republicans.
 
IOTL, in 1968 Mayor Daley thought Hubert was a loser. After RFK's murder, LBJ opened *negotiations* for a renomination. Leaving aside the pure crassness and insensitivity :mad::mad:, polling showed he'd lose the whole South to Nixon and Wallace. Thereupon, Daley asked EMK to run in his brother's place, saying "you can carry Illinois and you can carry the country." Fortunately, Ted turned down the offer, and only then was Humphrey's nomination ratified by King Richard. So what if he said yes in 1968?
 
Your best bet for Teddy is 1980. It was a year of guaranteed party change in the white house. Get rid of Chappaquiddick, re-elect Ford in 76, and you have a very plausible scenario for Kennedy in 80.

But even if Kennedy narrowly loses in 76, and the GOP loses favor over inflation, Iran and Panama, he can emerge the victor in 1980.
 
Arch-Liberal didn't really become a dirty word until after the Carter Presidency.
Though oddly Carter wasn't a Liberal.

But... even if some crazy doesn't shoot him, his drinking and womanizing in the White House is a problem. This isn't the 60s, pre-Watergate. Reporters won't wink and look the other way.
If it gets revealed to the press to be reported. The Kennedy's were good at covering up their indiscretions and its not so hard for a President to avoid having dirty laundry leaked if they keep it out of the press' eye.

I see major scandal ahead. Even if he survives, his second term (if there is one) will be ugly and largely thwarted by the rise of the Reaganite republicans.

The problem for Carter was his lack of "cajones" and effectiveness. Rather than reassuring the public over the hostage crisis with rhetorical strength and zeal, he let the issue become apart of a national melancholy. Instead of putting a Democratic majority to use, he alienated it and squandered it. Etc. None of that would come with Ted Kennedy, at least in my opinion.

And the rise of the Reaganites was never assured. The Conservative shift in politics took a time of massive dissillusion and crisis to rise, offering reasurrance in the blanket of nostalgia and past methods and traditionalism. Ted Kennedy could prove effective enough to reasurre the nation through 1980, recieve an updraft in popularity and the markets recovered in the late 1970's or early 1980's (which seems likely with good leadership and measures, though not definite and you can criticize that), and so forth.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
IOTL, in 1968 Mayor Daley thought Hubert was a loser. After RFK's murder, LBJ opened *negotiations* for a renomination. Leaving aside the pure crassness and insensitivity :mad::mad:, polling showed he'd lose the whole South to Nixon and Wallace. Thereupon, Daley asked EMK to run in his brother's place, saying "you can carry Illinois and you can carry the country." Fortunately, Ted turned down the offer, and only then was Humphrey's nomination ratified by King Richard. So what if he said yes in 1968?

Teddy's response to Daley was actually funny in a dark sort of way. When Teddy turned Daley down, Daley asked why. Teddy's response was, "I don't want to get shot."

Again, very much gallows humor.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Daley is too controversial to be in play Kennedy would pick a democrat to the center to be his running mate to balance the ticket
 
Richard Nixon would win a landslide bigger than Obama's last November, because he could easily play the Southern card, age card, and experience card. The first two he had planned to use against Bobby in the fall. Age could be used to great effect, because he was old enough to be Ted's father.
 
oooo i figured that the standard red= republican blue = dems was in play

That was a 2000 establishment. In 1996 it was leaning red=Republican, in 1992 it was mixed, and before that blue=Republican was the majority opinion.

Of course (IIRC) ABC used yellow for one of the parties at some point, so it's pretty clear that there weren't much in the way of standards.

In general (and I did myself when I was working for Theoryspark/President Forever) Red = Republican from 1992 onwards, and Blue = Republican before 1992 ("a sea of blue", meaning Reagan's landslide victory for instance).


Though oddly Carter wasn't a Liberal.

The Republicans made him into one over foriegn affairs.

Domestically (for those who only know President Carter in his more modern guise and/or his caricature) he was moderate-to-conservative (technically technocratic, but that's a longer discussion) in what he proposed, let alone what he actually passed.


Daley is too controversial to be in play Kennedy would pick a democrat to the center to be his running mate to balance the ticket

Umm, what? No one is suggesting Daley as a running mate. Simply that Daley is perhaps the last super-powerful "boss" figure from the New Deal era and that his powers controlled Illinois and had a major impact on other Democratic thinking.
 
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