An Italian Affair
Ottoman weakness plagued the government with instability and paralyzed the empire in the face of numerous internal and external enemies. Insurrection in Egypt wracked the province after the Great Turkish War, and by the 1720s the Mamluks were effectively independent in all but name, with Venice gaining commercial rights in the territory. With the rise of Nader Shah in 1736 the Ottomans faced a serious eastern threat, culminating in the loss of Baghdad to the Iranians in 1738. In Syria the capable Zadir al-Umar proclaimed independence, and with Venetian support succeeded in seizing control over much of Palestine and southern Syria. The ancient city of Acre became a Venetian colony in 1740 and the Tripolitanian sultanate comfortably settled into the role of a Venetian protectorate.
The Barbary States, nominal Turkish vassals, had been de facto closer to allies, and a constant thorn in the side of Catholic shipping. Spain had held the Algerian ports of Oran and Mers el Kebir since the beginning of the 16th century; with the outbreak of the succession crisis the Turks captured the cities, but these were taken by Venice during the Second Morean War. Both outposts were annexed along with Tripoli, but holding them proved costly. In the short term the Venetians turned to the Bernabotti, unmarried sons of the aristocracy otherwise denied a chance at gaining power, and began auctioning off state positions to cover the costs. The reforms of ended protectionist policies, and an end to the convoy system spurred shipbuilding. Venice’s newfound confidence led her to take a more assertive attitude on the continent, culminating in a military alliance with Victor Emmanuel of Sardinia aimed squarely at the Hapsburg empire.
The Duke of Savoy had long coveted Milan, but above all else he resented the Austrian claims to Tuscany, which by right of his wife Anna Maria Luisa, willed the duchy by her brother Gian Gastone in 1736[1]; this had been disregarded by Emperor Leopold Johan, who claimed the territory for himself, intending to use it as a bargaining chip in the broader contest with France.
Leopold’s arrogance proved exceedingly costly for the Habsburg dynasty. In 1733 King Augustus of Poland died, sparking a succession crisis. Russia, previously an Austrian ally, instead joined with France, backing the claims of Stanislaus in return for Livonia and Ruthenia. Although the Treaty of the Three Black Eagles saw Russia, Prussia, and Austria agree to oppose both Saxon and French candidate, all three quickly abandoned the terms, as Austria’s main goal had been to forestall a Franco-Saxon-Prussian alliance. Frederick William had already secured a double Hanover marriage over Habsburg objections, pairing his son Frederick with Amelia, threatening a grand northern Protestant bloc against the Emperor.
Victor Emmanuel proved a strikingly militant leader. Without waiting for French support he invaded Milan, rapidly securing control over the lightly defended duchy. In the east the Russians decisively defeated a Saxon army at the Battle of Warsaw, while the French spurred Bavaria and Spain to enter the war as well. In this context Venice received an offer from Savoy to join the alliance and partition the Habsburg territories between them. Venice had good reason to accept- aside from Albania and vestigial claims on Istria and Cremona, the Venetians resented Trieste’s new prominence as an Austrian free port, and hoped to seize the territory and secure control over Adriatic commerce. It was ultimately the Turkish victory over Austria in Macedonia which decided the issue- if Austria could no longer defeat the Turks then there was no benefit in maintaining an alliance with Vienna. Correspondingly Venice formally declared war on Austria in 1436, occupying Mantua, Trieste and the Trentino valley and successfully invading Albania. A Prussian army under Prince Frederick inflicted a shocking defeat over the Austrians in Silesia and overran the province. A Franco-Bavarian army captured Prague and Vienna was besieged in 1739. British mediation staved off total Austrian collapse, but otherwise their defeat was total- Bavaria annexed further Austria, Bohemia, Linz, and Tirol, excluding the territories south of the Brenner Pass. Stanislaus was installed as king of Poland, and Russia gained Kiev, Livonia, Estonia and protectorates over the Danubian principalities. Savoy and Venice partitioned Milan, with Venice gaining Mantua and Cremona as well as Istria and Victor Amadeus annexing the bulk of the territory along with Parma; the Bourbon duke was thereafter installed as King of Naples. Duke Leopold of Lorraine ceded his territory to France and was installed as Grand Duke of Tuscany while Spain regained Sicily.
[1]Victor Amadeus married differently, as noted previously; when the last Medici duke dies his nephew, TTL’s Duke of Savoy, is the heir. As OTL Maria Luisa’s rights are largely discounted by the great powers