The Lion of Judah Roars Again: An early Ethiopian Civil War

Preface
Preface
In the century after the year 1930 massive changes were in store for the ancient nation of Ethiopia. In this year the man who would come to be known as Haile Selassie assumed his imperial title, and inherited one of the longest lasting and proudest nations in Africa. Despite this prestige however the empire was considered by many in the international community to be something of a backwater, with ridiculously low literacy, a backwards feudal economy, and a severe lack of infrastructure.


But Selassie was determined to reform Ethiopia to the standards of the rest of the world, to truly bring Ethiopia the glory it once possessed. He started several ambitious programs of modernization. This began with the proclamation of constitution in 1931 that created a European style two chamber parliament, as well as weakening the feudal aristocracy. He also in a revolutionary move abolished slavery, leading to Ethiopia finally being accepted into the League of Nations, and hopefully the wider international community. He also initiated numerous public works projects and encouraged education and infrastructure development.


These hopes would be temporarily dashed however, when the Italian's under command of the fascist Benito Mussolini began to set their sites on Ethiopia. Angered at the dent in prestige their defeat at the battle of Adowa had caused, and hungry to create a vast African empire, Mussolini ordered an invasion in 1935. Selassie hoped to use his new League allies to end the invasion through diplomacy, but it was for naught as the league abandoned Selassie in his time of need. After 7 months of brutal fighting the Italians captured the city of Addis Ababa and began 5 years of occupation. The exiled emperor began petitioning various nations to help him free his beloved country, this would eventually bear fruit as in 1940 allied forces from British Sudan with the help of the remnants of the Ethiopian Army liberated Ethiopia from Italian rule and restored the Emperor to his rightful throne.


Despite the havoc caused by the Italians, the world war did yield some benefits to the Ethiopians. Notably in that it allowed the conquest of the former Italian colony of Eritrea. However in many ways this gift would become a curse as the years passed on with many Eritreans resenting the Ethiopian rule especially considering the religious divide between Ethiopian Christians, and Eritrean Muslims. In an attempt to end stop future violence from occurring in 1952 the United Nations proposed a federation between Ethiopia and Eritrea, a compromise which was accepted if temporarily.


In the 50s the reforms continued especially as Ethiopia after millenia of isolation was finally opening itself up to the world. Ethiopia began to move closer to the West especially America, who in 1953 signed a mutual defense pact with Ethiopia. Selassie also on the advice of the West created a new constitution in 1955 with western advisors specifically advising certain components of it. This new constitution expanded the rights of individual Ethiopians, and added many elements of modern western governments, with the notable exception of not limiting the Emperor's powers in any meaningful way. This modernization led to increase investment from the west and the economy began to prosper to a degree. But it was not to last as with the coming of the 60s a dark cloud would come over the empire.


This darkness would initially take the form of an attempted military coup by a disgruntled military officer in 1960, who wished to deal with deep rooted social and economic issues in Ethiopia. The coup failed, but would serve as a harbinger for events to come.


In the 1960s resentment against the imperial government began to grow among the middle and intellectual classes who noted the lack of economic and educational reform leading to Ethiopia being one the most illiterate and least developed nations in the world. Many also found the concept of the monarchy to be antiquated and clashed with their conceptions of modern government. Student specifically began to speak out the government leading to mass riots in 1969, an event which greatly saddened the aging Emperor, who viewed himself as a paternal figure to his people. A troubling instance of soviet agents spreading communist propaganda through several universities in Ethiopia also led many in the government to fear that their people were becoming increasingly influenced by socialist thought.


Tensions in Ethiopia intensified, as well in the 60s especially after government dissolved the ten year old federation in 1962 and formally annexed Eritrea into the empire sparking mass armed conflict especially from the newly formed Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF). Nearly half of the Ethiopian armed forces were redirected to the Eritrean territory to put down the rebellion, but sporadic fighting would continue for years.


By the 70s things had gone from bad to worse for the Ethiopians. A massive drought began to affect the ethiopian highlands and with it widespread famine. At its peak estimates say it was killing as much as 500 people a day. The lack of government response led to even more resentment from the citizens. Economic issues began to rear their heads as well leading to massive strikes in urban areas. The feudal system of landholdings prevented the agricultural sector from developing either, with nobles still owning large pieces of land handed out to them by the government, further worsening the effects of the famine. And with all these issues falling on Ethiopia the aging emperor was becoming less and less equipped to deal with them as old age slowly withered away his mind and body. In 1973 the Emperor’s son and heir to the throne Amha Selassie was confronted with a massive stroke that required him to be shipped to Europe for treatment further degrading the people’s faith in the monarchy. This combined with a massive taxi driver protest over rising gas prices and another student riot made 1973 seem like the peak of instability. It became clear to the government that change was necessary in order to hold the country together.


Despite attempts to reform itself in 1974 the military officials of the nation began to conspire to save the country themselves… through force. In June 24th a number of military officials came together to form an organization called the Derg. They elected Mengistu Haile Mariam as the chairman and Major Atnafu Abate as Vice Chairmen. Both men with rather radical left leaning tendencies. They then began a process of slowly chipping away at the Selassie’s power before they finally deposed him on September 12th, officially ending the Empire in its current state. The Derg now in control of the country appointed Haile Selassie’s son Amha as a constitutional monarch, instead using the title king rather than emperor, in order to preserve legitimacy. The king of course had no real power.

The Derg then appointed the popular General Aman Andom as head of state, though they intended on being the true force behind Ethiopia from now on. Aman was a noted liberal, and was somewhat sympathetic to the monarchy as well as being a native Eritrean. All of these qualities led to constant clashes with the Derg especially over the matters of Eritrea itself and the potential execution of the dozens of former Imperial Government officials who had been arrested in the last year. These conflicts finally culminated in the Derg beginning a purge of units loyal to Amam and conspiring against him. Aman in response began attempting to build a base of support outside the Derg with other military officials and the people. On November 15th an argument with the Derg led to Aman resigning and retiring to his home. He then secretly began to call in his allies outside the Derg to potentially halt their increasing dictatorial nature. Realizing that Aman represented a legitimate threat to the Derg’s power Mariam sent a contingent of troops to arrest him. However they failed in their task and Amam managed to sneak into the countryside of northern Ethiopia, where he began consolidating his forces to overthrow the Derg and restore order to Ethiopia.


So thanks for reading the preface of what is going to become my first official timeline. The POD is that instead of Aman being killed by the Derg he was actually able to raise resistance against the organization creating an early Ethiopian Civil War. Im really excited to finally get into writing the actual alternate history stuff, after that legnthy OTL introduction. Anyways Id love to get some feedback, criticism is always accepted (Especially consdiering that this is my first timeline.
 
Good start! It's nice to see an Ethiopia TL, it surprises me that there aren't that many of them on this website. What kind of resistance movement does Aman found? Is it communist? Is it royalist?
 
Good start! It's nice to see an Ethiopia TL, it surprises me that there aren't that many of them on this website. What kind of resistance movement does Aman found? Is it communist? Is it royalist?

The monarchy hasnt been officially dissolved yet so both sides are techincally still royalist, but Aman definetly leans more towards liberal constitutional monarchism than his opponents in the Derg who are really itching to establish a Socialist state as they did in OTL, but in this timeline the form that this socialist state takes will be slightly different. It also worth noting that Amha Selassie doesnt officially recognize either of these new goverments and is still out of the country...for now.

Also thanks for the response Ill try to get out a new entry asap especially now that I have at least one person on board. I have some really cool plans imo that will take the entire horn of africa in an entirelly new direction. Stay tuned.
 
The monarchy hasnt been officially dissolved yet so both sides are techincally still royalist, but Aman definetly leans more towards liberal constitutional monarchism than his opponents in the Derg who are really itching to establish a Socialist state as they did in OTL, but in this timeline the form that this socialist state takes will be slightly different. It also worth noting that Amha Selassie doesnt officially recognize either of these new goverments and is still out of the country...for now.

Also thanks for the response Ill try to get out a new entry asap especially now that I have at least one person on board. I have some really cool plans imo that will take the entire horn of africa in an entirelly new direction. Stay tuned.
If it helps, an OTL royalist resistance organization called the Ethiopian Democratic Union was established in western Ethiopia but it was soon driven out by communist opposition groups into Sudan as the Moa Anbessa (Conquering Lion) Party was established in exile under Amha Selassie. If Aman's royalist movement survives, it'll be quite interesting IMO.
 
If it helps, an OTL royalist resistance organization called the Ethiopian Democratic Union was established in western Ethiopia but it was soon driven out by communist opposition groups into Sudan as the Moa Anbessa (Conquering Lion) Party was established in exile under Amha Selassie. If Aman's royalist movement survives, it'll be quite interesting IMO.

Thats actually really helpful, Ive been having trouble finding legitimate monarchist individuals (a ton of them were imprisoned and killed by Mariam) so I will definetly be looking into that. Thank you:)
 
Thats actually really helpful, Ive been having trouble finding legitimate monarchist individuals (a ton of them were imprisoned and killed by Mariam) so I will definetly be looking into that. Thank you:)
The EDU was established under Ras Mangasha Seyoum but it soon found itself being split between Tigrayan nationalists/loyalists and non-Tigrayan elements so perhaps Aman can take control and make sure that it doesn't collapse or isn't forced to flee into exile. A recommendation - the EDU was close to capturing the town of Gondar OTL so if manages to successfully capture it in this ATL, it might be able to rally more support from the more conservative and religious elements of Ethiopia early on.
 
The EDU was established under Ras Mangasha Seyoum but it soon found itself being split between Tigrayan nationalists/loyalists and non-Tigrayan elements so perhaps Aman can take control and make sure that it doesn't collapse or isn't forced to flee into exile. A recommendation - the EDU was close to capturing the town of Gondar OTL so if manages to successfully capture it in this ATL, it might be able to rally more support from the more conservative and religious elements of Ethiopia early on.

This is actually perfect considering I was originally planning on having Aman establish himself in northern Ethiopia and Eritrea, so I will definetly having him utilizing these groups, of course this will add some nice conflict as he was definitely less conservative than a lot of these guys. But this will be super helpful in fleshing out the resistance. I always wanted to have the nobility actually put up some sort of fight but none of my sources so far mentioned the EDU. I also want to incorporate the patriarch and the orthodox church in some way so this all combined is going to make Aman's resistance way more interesting and dynamic.
 
This is actually perfect considering I was originally planning on having Aman establish himself in northern Ethiopia and Eritrea, so I will definetly having him utilizing these groups, of course this will add some nice conflict as he was definitely less conservative than a lot of these guys. But this will be super helpful in fleshing out the resistance. I always wanted to have the nobility actually put up some sort of fight but none of my sources so far mentioned the EDU. I also want to incorporate the patriarch and the orthodox church in some way so this all combined is going to make Aman's resistance way more interesting and dynamic.
Well, there were still significant numbers of conservatives in northern Ethiopia (mainly in Tigray) before the Derg officially became communist so you might be able to do something with that. The EDU did have a sizable number of conservative nobles that were royalist-oriented and often held sizable estates which were later confiscated by the communist government in the 70s and distributed amongst the people. The Ethiopian Orthodox Church was heavily in opposition to the communist Derg and it will most likely be in favor of whatever royalist resistance you have in mind, especially if the Derg opts to purge the more religious Christian elements of Ethiopia.
 
@Jack Yanoshik, if I may recommend something - an Ethiopian government-in-exile could be established if Prime Minister Lij Endalkatchew Makonnen and his Cabinet are evacuated as Amha Selassie is crowned Emperor of Ethiopia in exile, becoming responsible for heading any diplomatic resistance in support of royalist resistance movements. This could mean that the West might be able to provide financial and material support to the royalist resistance movements which may become more powerful and influential amongst the opposition groups as time passes.
 
@Jack Yanoshik, if I may recommend something - an Ethiopian government-in-exile could be established if Prime Minister Lij Endalkatchew Makonnen and his Cabinet are evacuated as Amha Selassie is crowned Emperor of Ethiopia in exile, becoming responsible for heading any diplomatic resistance in support of royalist resistance movements. This could mean that the West might be able to provide financial and material support to the royalist resistance movements which may become more powerful and influential amongst the opposition groups as time passes.

I was thinking the Aman would recieve western assistantce especially considering he controls the port regions in Eritrea. But Im not sure about Endalkatchew taking power again. Ive considered it but the issue is that he and alot of other more right leaning officials were locked up at the time of the divergence and were executed shortly after so it might be a bit problematic to keep him alive.
 
I was thinking the Aman would recieve western assistantce especially considering he controls the port regions in Eritrea. But Im not sure about Endalkatchew taking power again. Ive considered it but the issue is that he and alot of other more right leaning officials were locked up at the time of the divergence and were executed shortly after so it might be a bit problematic to keep him alive.
Aman might not be able to receive Western assistance too quickly, considering the US had just pulled out of Vietnam and Aman's also going to be forced to eventually give ground to either the Derg's forces or the Eritrean resistance movements in favor of withdrawing into the Ethiopian countryside. As for Endalkatchew, you could have loyalist Imperial Guard forces rescue him and his Cabinet along with the Ethiopian Royal Family before fleeing into Sudan or Kenya to establish an Ethiopian government-in-exile. With Amha Selassie as the new Emperor and his new Prime Minister, the exiled Emperor could head diplomatic efforts at attempting to support royalist and anti-communist movements in Ethiopia.
 
Aman might not be able to receive Western assistance too quickly, considering the US had just pulled out of Vietnam and Aman's also going to be forced to eventually give ground to either the Derg's forces or the Eritrean resistance movements in favor of withdrawing into the Ethiopian countryside. As for Endalkatchew, you could have loyalist Imperial Guard forces rescue him and his Cabinet along with the Ethiopian Royal Family before fleeing into Sudan or Kenya to establish an Ethiopian government-in-exile. With Amha Selassie as the new Emperor and his new Prime Minister, the exiled Emperor could head diplomatic efforts at attempting to support royalist and anti-communist movements in Ethiopia.

I fully agree with the lack of American support Carter especially was less interested in getting involved in proxy conflicts like this. I do however have some potential plans for Aman pacifying the Eritreans for now through more peaceful measures.
 
I fully agree with the lack of American support Carter especially was less interested in getting involved in proxy conflicts like this. I do however have some potential plans for Aman pacifying the Eritreans for now through more peaceful measures.
How so? I doubt any Eritreans are going to be in favor for continued union with Ethiopia but you could have something where the Eritrean Civil Wars result in a worse loss for the Eritrean Liberation Front and forces them to seek help from Aman's royalist forces.
 
How so? I doubt any Eritreans are going to be in favor for continued union with Ethiopia but you could have something where the Eritrean Civil Wars result in a worse loss for the Eritrean Liberation Front and forces them to seek help from Aman's royalist forces.

I was going to have Aman attempt to reintroduce the federation, which would be divisive among the Eritreans but SOME would go along with him especially since he is an eritrean himself. Of course more radical elements of the ELF will accept nothing less than total independence and will fight on.
 
I was going to have Aman attempt to reintroduce the federation, which would be divisive among the Eritreans but SOME would go along with him especially since he is an eritrean himself. Of course more radical elements of the ELF will accept nothing less than total independence and will fight on.
I'm not so sure that many Eritreans will side with Aman on the basis of him being Eritrean which could be used to portray Aman as nothing more than a puppet of the Ethiopian nobility and monarchy.
 
Ive been a bit busy lately but I am working on it right now and I hope to get out a new entry by Monday.
Can't wait to see it! By the way, I wanted to know - what is the status of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party and other opposition groups in Ethiopia? Are there any other royalist resistance organizations that exist in the Ethiopian Civil War?
 
Chapter 1 Part 1: The Derg United ?
Chapter 1 A Den Divided


Part 1: The Derg United?


December of 1974 was truly a month of great fear for the Ethiopian Nation. A shadow of war shrouded the country, but nobody knew exactly where the storm would strike. The Derg’s reaction in the immediate aftermath of Aman’s escape was remarkably tame. He was of course branded a traitor and an enemy of the state, but the amount of true military preparation to deal with one of the few true threats to their regime was initially limited. Many historians place the blame of this lack of action on the lack of effective cohesion within the Derg itself. The government was still in many ways a disorganized mess of military officials with conflicting ideas of how to run this new state. Despite the chaos on November the 26th the Derg was able to officially elect Mengistu Haile Mariam as the new chairman and official head of state in this new government, after briefly serving as an interim President.




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Mengistu Haile Mariam new Chairman and President of the Derg and Ethiopia


Meriam came to the power on the promise on uniting Ethiopia, and smashing any resistance to their new regime. He specifically called out the lack of decisive action in the last few days since Amans escape. This was a not so subtle reference to much of the Derg’s rejection of Mariam’s plan to brutally execute a number of high level Aman supporters, many of which had since feld Addis Ababa in addition to former imperial officials on the day of Aman’s escape. Many Derg officials did this out of fear that this might spark mass support for Aman. But with the lack of activity from the outlaw General their death may have simply been monetarily delayed. Despite the lack of ideological discussion with Mariam’s official rise to power it was a not so hidden secret that he was a supporter of Marxist Leninist principles, even if these ideas may not have officially reached public policy yet. They were however reflected in his choices for Vice Chairmen one of those being other noted Marxist Leninist Tafari Benti.


Teferi_Benti.jpg


Vice Chairman General Tafari Benti



Tafari’s appointment was seen by many as a sort of appeasement as it was well known the Tafari narrowly lost to Mariam in the elections for Chairman. While Benti and Mariam shared a surface level ideological bond, a layer of resentment existed between the pair. Mariam viewed Benti as somewhat indecisive, and not willing to take necessary action. The two would come to blows many times in the coming weeks.

The same cannot be said for Merriam's appointment for the other seat of Vice Chairman Atnafu Abate



atnafu-abate.jpg


Vice Chairman Atnafu Abate



Abate while maybe not as ideologically aligned with Mariam (he was a bit murky on his actual beliefs) was much closer to Mariam personally. Both men of action Abate was drawn to Mariam’s decisive nature. They were quite close politically with some even referring to him as Mariam’s right hand man.


As the week since Aman’s escape passed the crisis began to intensify. Reports of mutinies in the northern provinces of Ethiopia and Eritrea began to come in. And yet little word was coming from Aman himself. Clearly he was planning something. This put many in the Derg on edge. With a rebellion seeming imminent many of the Derg’s more radical plans for the government were put on hold by more moderate voices who claimed that the need for public support and legitimacy was crucial at this point. Concepts such as the abolishment of the monarchy and the implementation of collectivist principles were put on hold despite many in the Derg seeing them as later goals. While politically the Derg seemed stagnant militarily they had begun to take action. After news came in about the northern mutinees, Mariam ordered an evacuation of any loyal troops from the north to consolidate in south Welo and the regions around Addis Ababa. He also ordered a number of troops on the Somali border and those holding down the Ogaden region to move towards Addis Ababa as well. If Aman isn't going to put up a fight than Mariam sure as hell would.



Hey thanks for reading my first real chapter of this Timeline. It was fun to finally get into the actual alt history stuff rather than just giving (probably too much) backstory. Next time we will be catching up with Aman and what he was doing in the week since his assassination attempt. Once again any comments or criticism are greatly encouraged.
 
Can't wait to see it! By the way, I wanted to know - what is the status of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party and other opposition groups in Ethiopia? Are there any other royalist resistance organizations that exist in the Ethiopian Civil War?

The EPRP will play a major role in the future but for now the Derg isnt officially socialist so there interactions are limited and the ERPR is moreso waiting to see what ideological turn the Derg makes before making a move. And yes some more royalists will exist especially some more right leaning ones, but thats for the future.
 
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