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I've been musing for some time on the somehow unlikely chain of events that resulted in an unbroken (or almost unbroken) chain of popes for almost 2000 years (it should be obvious from the beginning that I am not postulating any kind of divine intervention). There have been at least a dozen of crisis any one of which might have resulted into an effective end to the papacy, at least in terms of a papacy with a claim of dominance over the catholic church of the western world. I'm willing to accept a weak papacy too, reduced to a limited number of faithfuls and without a real universal claim

I'm listing hereinafter the most obvious ones, at least from my POV:

  1. 6th century: Belisarius is unsuccessful, and the Gothic kingdom survives and prospers. It is quite likely that the Gothic kings would keep the future popes under their thumb, and lack interest in any kind of moral primacy in the western world. The national churches wouldmore or less slowly loosen their ties with Rome, with the bishop of Rome being perceived as just one patriarch, without any particular claim to primacy.
  2. 6th century: the ERE wins the Gothic wars as per OTL, but for one reason or another Byzantine Italy can successfully withstand the Langobard invasion. The bishop of Rome is fully under the imperial thumb, and in Constantinople is regarded as no more than one of the patriarchs. In western Europe he's seen as a Byzantine puppet, so once again the ties with Rome are loosened.
  3. 8th century: Zacharias II does not manage to open communications with Peipin the Short; or for any reason whatsoever his successor Stephen III is unsuccessful in his appeal to Pepin (maybe he dies on the way, or the Langobards prevent his voyage to Paris or whatever). The outcome is that the Franks will not intervene in Italy, Aistulf is successful in expelling the Byzantines from Ravenna and Rome. Once again the pope is cut off the rest of western Europe
  4. 8th century: either there is no Charlemagne (or equivalent), or the same Charles looks at north and east rather than to the south. Theinvasion of Italy does not happen, and once again the papacy withers away under the Langobard kings
  5. 9th century: another take is that we have a Charlemagne and everything goes as per OTL. However for his own reasons Charlemagne relocates the pope to Aachen. Loosing the connection with Rome, once again the papacy withers.
  6. 10th century: the papacy is at its lowest ebb, wracked by scandals. The popes are mostly puppets of the duke of Spoleto, who is the effective ruler of Rome. One after the other the European national churches come into being.
  7. 11th-12th centuries: somewhen during the fight for investitures an emperor decides that he's had enough of the trouble-making pope: at the death of a troublesome pope he convenes a council of the church and the papacy is abolished. From now on the church will be governed by council of bishops, appointed by the emperor
  8. 14th century: a few possibilities here, with the Babylonian Captivity at Avignon, the Great Western Schism and - my favourite - Gian Galeazzo Visconti surviving and taking Rome ultimately
  9. 17th century: the religion wars go against the catholicism, which is abolished (or at least greatly diminished). No catholicism= no pope
  10. 18th century: the French revolutionaries abolish the papacy, and this time stays abolished.
  11. 19th century: either during the revolution of 1848 or after Italian unification Pius IX proves even more intractable than OTL. There is a great schism, and the papacy withers.

Mind, this is not a poll: I am looking for reasons rather than votes :D
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