Disclaimer: This is intended as a mini-TL to follow-up on “The Raid on Scapa Flow…. or something else? AHC” discussion. The topics was a post Munich decision to prepare for a first strike against Britain. Several things have been discussed, some dismissed, and some highlighted as highly uncertain.
One of the main uncertainties relates to home fleet behavior which was rather unpredictable around the opening days of the war and first strike on the bases would be rather inefficient if the fleet was at sea. Thus, for all the preparations written about in this TL there is a 50% chance that at least the anti-shipping strikes would have had no effect. Astrodragon thinks this outcome would make a hilarious TL and maybe he will write it after he completes his sea lion TL (sorry, couldn’t resist. Explanations offered on request).
It is not intended as a long TL or one were a major emphasis is placed on the prose, but simply to put a WI change of expectations into AH context. I do tend to lean towards effective solutions for the Axis, but I highly welcome suggestions of more ineffective outcomes. If you consider this part of a work in progress, you may appreciate that one of the outcomes will be how many twists or lucky decisions is needed to make the desired end result (yes, it is one of those) following the POD itself which is not intended as the major discussion point. The desired end result should be a RN/Britain which is badly battered in the beginning of WW2.
I also concede I should have used this entry on my last TL.
Here it comes:
Munich, 30 September 1938, 8 pm:
Raeder is guided into the Führer’s study room, Hitler is there with Goering.
Raeder: Mein Führer, Commander Goering, I came as soon as I could. How can I be of assistance?
Hitler: Earlier today, Germany signed a letter of intent with Great Brittain and France to obtain the Sudetenland in exchange for no further territorial ambitions in Europe. As we both know, Germany has further territorial ambitions, but this agreement served the purpose of preventing a war we would be ill prepared for.
Raeder: Mein Führer, that was nevertheless a remarkable achievement, and I am very happy that the Marine is not about to go to war as it stands.
Hitler: Yes, I understand this. I have never wanted a war with Britain, but it seems they have betrayed the spirit of our past agreement and are now aligning themselves with the French to prevent our needed expansion. As it is, we are surrounded by enemies to the east and west and the French, Germans and Soviets are rearming at a breathtaking pace. This situation is intolerable and we need to change these pre-conditions or it will be the end of an independent Germany.
Raeder: I fear that our Kriegsmarine is not capable of contributing much as it stands. Please let me know what we should plan for.
Hitler: My intention is to disassemble and/or align with our enemies in the east. The Polish and Hungarians are hungry for Check lands which can be used. If they take the bait in the spring I plan to attack Poland in the fall next year, too late in the year to have the French attack our backs. I now see it as a possibility that such a move will trigger war with Britain and France. The French we must in this case seek to destroy in 1940 and the British will to continue fighting such a war needs to be broken as well.
Raeder: This is a strategic gamble of immense proportion. I understand that our armies have expanded tremendously over the last year, but in the marine, we have not even begun to approach the strengths of our enemies. I fear the task is too tall an order.
Hitler: I was expecting this and I don’t disagree. However, I have been talking to Hermann about this, and he feels the Luftwaffe could be a considerable asset. Particularly if unopposed by a surprised opposition. Herr Reichsadmiral, what Goering suggested is that we might strike first and catch our enemies unaware. Could this help even the odds?
Raeder (pauses, then speaks, balancing the fate of the reich and his ambitions as an admiral in his mind): It might, it might. Such operations require careful coordination with spotting ships and to provide cover for or units. If an organic air wing is placed under Kriegsmarine control?.. It might do a lot of good for us.
Goering: But that is impossible!! The Luftwaffe needs all its aircraft to prepare for the war against Poland and France.
Hitler: Hmm. We do have excess capacity at Focke-Wulff, Arado, Fieseler and Blohm and Voss. If the financing comes of Kriegsmarine budget, there seem to be no stopping this?
Goering: But you cannot just make an air force in 12 months!
Hitler (irritated): Well then, then you will have to make one from the Luftwaffe. I hereby instruct that a special arm of the Luftwaffe is to be created under the auspices of the Luftwaffe, but under Kriegsmarine budget and tactical and strategic control. I expect corporation to be smooth and the Luftwaffe to assist within reasonable limits. Disputes and corporation difficulties can be brought directly to my attention, although such would be a bitter disappointment.
Her Reichadmiral Raeder! Do you understand you task? War is to be expected in 1939. You are to prepare for it. I will attempt to increase our overall preparation for war, but you should do all you can to make ready for 1939 and focus on what can be ready in this timeframe. From a diplomatic point of view, I hope to achieve surprise against our western enemies, it is imperative that you make the best of it, and don’t spoil it.
You are dismissed!
Raeder and Goering: Jawohl mein Führer!