The Kriegsmarine implements a first strike doctrine

[Catsmate]

Unfortunately though, the war will have to continue given that Germany hasn't defeated the other WAllies (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and South Africa) yet.

What ability do those Dominions, even assuming they were interested in continuing the war, have to project force against Germany without the UK?

 

[Catsmate]

Not out of food. Takes longer indeed. Running out. Since the beginning of the was the germans had 30 AMC's, three pocket battleships and the twins on raiding patrols.
You need to realize its no longer Churchill. He got his turn. Its Halifax and Chamberlain. If they were willing to concede territory IOTL, then how about this TL?

It's as much the perception of defeat as the reality. If the populace believe the war is lost then they will be far more resistant than historically to make sacrifices to continue what appears to be a futile and worthless fight. This would be reinforced if the existence of armistice negotiations was made public; no-one wants to be the last to die.

Further the perception of defeat, and hence weakness, makes potential allies (such as the Dominions and the US) reluctant to assist; what is the point in supporting a lost cause? It also emboldens potential enemies; if the UK, and it's Empire, are perceived as weak then everyone with a grievance or territorial dispute (and there are a lot of them) will be eying up the possible gains. Likewise every suppressed nationalist group within the empire will be considering the options.

As the master said:

Uberwald is like this big suet pudding that everyone's suddenly noticed, and now with this coronation as an excuse we've all got to rush there with knife, fork and spoon to shovel as much on our plates as possible​

And the British Empire is looking like the next meal...

 

[Gudestein]

It's as much the perception of defeat as the reality. If the populace believe the war is lost then they will be far more resistant than historically to make sacrifices to continue what appears to be a futile and worthless fight. This would be reinforced if the existence of armistice negotiations was made public; no-one wants to be the last to die.

Further the perception of defeat, and hence weakness, makes potential allies (such as the Dominions and the US) reluctant to assist; what is the point in supporting a lost cause? It also emboldens potential enemies; if the UK, and it's Empire, are perceived as weak then everyone with a grievance or territorial dispute (and there are a lot of them) will be eying up the possible gains. Likewise every suppressed nationalist group within the empire will be considering the options.

As the master said:

Uberwald is like this big suet pudding that everyone's suddenly noticed, and now with this coronation as an excuse we've all got to rush there with knife, fork and spoon to shovel as much on our plates as possible​

And the British Empire is looking like the next meal...

I Think you meant far “less resistant”, but otherwise I could not agree more. ITTL it was peace now or the Empire would be lost irrespectively of Germany.
I Can imagine the Kido Butai beeing already at Sea when the dissapointing news of the peace agreement is announced. This was an exaggeration, but please consider they did go to war IOTL.

 

[Catsmate]

The UK may well have a go at Germany when the Russia campaign starts (And it will, short of Hitler dying) but not France, they're a broken nation. Limited army, and they've lost the Briey-Longweiy industrial area, and they have heavy reparations.

Oh, no doubt Britain will stab Germany in the back as soon as it's practicable.

 

[Catsmate]

For the UK? Stockpiling oil, probably encouraging mechanization of farming, getting the fleet up to snuff, and since Germany just gave them a very sharp lesson on how capable aircraft can be, training their own strike forces. Certainly all of the King Georges, and Illustrious will be finished. Probably either the Lions, or a class of Vanguards get built too, it depends on how fast they want them. Queens or Rs could be decommissioned and their guns shifted once the Vanguard in question is finished, and the spare guns used up. Also, all bases will see a considerable upgrade to the AA infrastructure.

That's a very expensive programme.

 

[weasel_airlift]

That's a very expensive programme.

The KGV and Illustrious class are already paid for. The AA is not an option after what happened. The oil stockpiling is probably already happening to an extent.

So, new ships would need to be paid for, and additional aircraft training, and the AA. Not horribly expensive, and they don't really have an option.

 

[Catsmate]

The KGV and Illustrious class are already paid for. The AA is not an option after what happened. The oil stockpiling is probably already happening to an extent.

So, new ships would need to be paid for, and additional aircraft training, and the AA. Not horribly expensive, and they don't really have an option.

Things like farm mechanisation, which would require new industrial infrastructure given that (I assume) the army would also be looking for new vehicles.
Stockpiling of oil not only requires storage facilities (and their associated defenses otherwise egg/basket) but also more tanker and refinery capacity.
The Lions cost around £8-10M each, a significant chunk of the UK military budget (~£266M in 1939).

 

[takerma]

I think it is very likely that USSR wil launch a spoiling attack. Whole shape of the war in the east will be different, but yes given no support whatsoever from outside and full German concentration on the east I think USSR is done in 1941 perhaps even before fall.

To be honest I think the UK treaty just does not look realistic. Politically UK I think needs more “convincing”, pounding from air, starvation during winter. You got to be convincing if you want them to just give up the whole Empire(which is what Suez control does)

 

[Gudestein]

I think it is very likely that USSR wil launch a spoiling attack. Whole shape of the war in the east will be different, but yes given no support whatsoever from outside and full German concentration on the east I think USSR is done in 1941 perhaps even before fall.

To be honest I think the UK treaty just does not look realistic. Politically UK I think needs more “convincing”, pounding from air, starvation during winter. You got to be convincing if you want them to just give up the whole Empire(which is what Suez control does)

IOTL, Churchill and Halifax both considered the situation desperate, with the threat from the air being the principal source of fear. Churchill considered that the negotiation position would not be worse, Halifax thought it might.
Churchill was off course correct, but he is out. ITTL, people would see the British independence as beeing in grave danger (As many unwisely did IOTL). Halifax saw the terrorbombed city and the Marinefahrpramen on the rhine.
From reading the OTL thinking I really dont Think he would take his chances with German troops on British soil.
Remember, he only knows the Germans have been ahead at every turn. Not that the last bit is a bluff.

PS. About a spoiling attack. Its possible and it fits Soviet doctrine if Stalin Think war is enevitable. However, even obsessed nuker thinks this would doom the SU.