The Kokoda Track and the Fall of Port Moresby, 1942

MacCaulay

Banned
The Kokoda Track has (rightly) gone down in history as one of the greatest victories for the Australian army in it's entire history. The Japanese Army was checked on land in a conventional battle, and stopped within 20 miles of it's prize: Port Moresby and it's logistics facilities.

The Australian Army had managed to destroy alot of it's supplies in the initial retreat before pushing the Japanese back, but what if the Imperial army had managed to capture some of the supply dumps intact, enabling them to complete the push on Port Moresby?
 

Hendryk

Banned
There was a chapter about that in Robert Cowley's What If? 2, "The Boys who saved Australia" by James Bradley.
 
The fall of Port Moresby would make the subsequent New Guinea campaign much more difficult, and would arouse much nervousness in Northern Australia. Having said that, once the captured Aussie supplies ran out, where would the Japanese get more? The only way a Japanese garrison in Port Moresby can be supplied is by sea, and land based air in N. Australia will have a field day on convoys with no air cover. Sure, you can ferry some Japanese planes to Port Moresby over the Owen Stanleys, but what about spare parts, fuel, ammo, etc?

Even a Japanese victory as opposed to tie in the battle of the Coral Sea does not deal with the fact that the US can build up air forces in N. Australia that can strike convoys and attack Port Moresby much easier than the IJN can support with carriers (that need to be elsewhere) convoy ops.

US/ANZAC forces retake Port Moresby, and because of the 4-6 month delay in the New Guinea campaign, MacArthur's return to the PI is 3-6 months later than OTL. Also, parts of New Guinea treated like some of the Japanese held islands, bypassed & allowed to wither/starve.
 
If the Japanese get to Moresby, they hold it to the death.

But the problem for Nippon is that that death takes place by the last weeks of December, 1942, at the absolute very latest.

The outcome of the great Pacific naval battles of '42, the ongoing campaign on the Canal, and most importantly for PNG the Australian repulse of the earlier attempted landings at Milne Bay means no Japanese reinforcement from the sea. And Allied air forces based in the Torres Strait and at Milne are going to prevent Japanese reinforcements from the air across the Owen Stanleys.

Hell, Australia and the US might start sending their main forces back over the track while the mopping-up is still going on at Moresby.
 
The Australian Army had managed to destroy alot of it's supplies in the initial retreat before pushing the Japanese back, but what if the Imperial army had managed to capture some of the supply dumps intact, enabling them to complete the push on Port Moresby?
Anyone have any details on the defenses and additional forces in the immediate vercinity of Morseby? I'd say that's the vital question: The Japanese would arrive without any artillary (excluding mortar and a few infantry guns), so they've got too choices: try to take the place by storm (only likely to suceed if the Australians lacked forces at Morseby beyond those deployed on the Kakoda trail) or settle in to attempt a long seige. Due to logistic issues (by sea direct to Moresby vs over a rather difficult track to Moresby) the latter is likely to end with the Japanese either destroyed or withdrawing back over Kakoda.

So, it boils down to: Can the couple of thousand Japs take Moresby by storm or not?
 
Anyone have any details on the defenses and additional forces in the immediate vercinity of Morseby? I'd say that's the vital question: The Japanese would arrive without any artillary (excluding mortar and a few infantry guns), so they've got too choices: try to take the place by storm (only likely to suceed if the Australians lacked forces at Morseby beyond those deployed on the Kakoda trail) or settle in to attempt a long seige. Due to logistic issues (by sea direct to Moresby vs over a rather difficult track to Moresby) the latter is likely to end with the Japanese either destroyed or withdrawing back over Kakoda.

So, it boils down to: Can the couple of thousand Japs take Moresby by storm or not?

check this link out for the Jap ORBAT for the kokoda campaign:
http://en.allexperts.com/e/j/ja/japanese_operations_against_port_moresby_(1942).htm

The Port Moresby garrison to my knowledge comprised the Australian 49th & 2/27th Bns, with NGVR & PIB detachments, No. 75 & 76 Sqns RAAF with their P-40 Kittyhawks, plus a few arty, US engineer & logistical support units (some of whom were black outfits). Then you'd also have stragglers from the 39th & 53rd Bns, plus the seasoned AIF reinforcements from the 7th Div's bdes. I've been attempting to google a full ORBAT of the entire Moresby garrison, but with no joy so far...

Hmmm, as for the AIF & US forces beginning to be sent back over the Track while the main ops at Moresby were still occurring- the allied froces would still face great difficulties with the topography & logistics for the purposes of offensive ops- as per the OTL hell of a time had by the US 32nd RED ARROW Inf Div (Mich & Wis NG) on their overland march on the Kapa Kapa Trail prior to the Buna campaign- the unfit, poorly-equipped National Guardsmen, who had no idea bout the hellish conditions of the mountainous jungle, suffered massively from the tropical conditions & diseases which destroyed their combat effectiveness. There was an anecdote from 1 of these American soldiers- "If I owned hell & New Guinea, I'd lie in hell & rent out New Guinea". Even the veteran AIF soldiers of the 6th & 7th Divs found jungle-fighting very unfamiliar & clautrophobic compared to their experience of open desert warfare in the Middle East.

Another interesting WI re the new Guinea campaign is if the japs had managed somehow to establish a foothold at Milne Bay (I've seen the setups on how the 61st Bn held there at the Darling Downs Military Museum in Toowoomba when I went there last yr)...
 
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