The king of Scotland dies in 1589

In November 1589 James VI of Scotland sailed for Norway in order to marry Anne of Denmark. WI he had suffered a shipwreck and died on the sea? Who would be the new king? And who Elisabeth would have chosen as her heir?
 
In November 1589 James VI of Scotland sailed for Norway in order to marry Anne of Denmark. WI he had suffered a shipwreck and died on the sea? Who would be the new king? And who Elisabeth would have chosen as her heir?

James had a cousin, Lady Arbella Stuart, another Scottish descendant of Henry VII but English-born. Exempt from the 1351 aliens statute, Arbella might be a serious contender.

The wild card was the Infanta Isabella, daughter of Philip II of Spain and married to her cousin the Archduke Albert, with whom, after 1599, she ruled over Spanish Flanders. In Armada year, 1588, Philip proclaimed that his daughter's descent from Edward III made her the rightful queen of England. Isabella was dangerously close at hand in Brussels, and the English were agitated by the possibility that she might re-assert that 1588 claim and urge English Catholics to rise and support her.
 
Arabella!

First, let us admire the name: Arabella I.

Please don't make me do the full geneology, which gives me a headache. But Arabella was a descendant of Henry VII through Margaret Tudor, and in 1610 is at least next in line for the thrones of England and Scotland after James I's children Henry, Charles and Elizabeth (the Winter Queen).

She was also considered by Elizabeth to be an option to be heir of England alternative to James, because she was considered to be more "English" than him, even though they are the same degree of relation (they all being descendants of Henry VII). Of course Jimmy's being male gives him the advantage in the succession sweepstakes, however.

Several things about Arabella make her absolutely fascinating for alternate history purposes. One is that no one was quite sure about her religion, although Catholic princes of Europe like Sigismund of Poland were going to great lengths to marry her, making Elizabeth perhaps understandably suspicious.

Perhaps a bit late for the purposes of your departure, Arabella married a member of the Seymour family (yes, as in Jane) who had married a descendant of the Brandon family, who were descended from Henry VII's other daughter, Mary. So conceivably two separate lines with conceivable claims to the throne would be united in their offspring.

Although considering the legendary breeding difficulties of various Tudors and Stuarts, reproduction here is by no means a fait accompli.

As it was, James I imprisoned her for her marriage, which was in the early modern era essentially a national security threat. She died in the Tower after trying to escape England disguised as a man.

She is, in short, completely and thoroughly awesome. Please do have at it if you want to build a timeline around her.
 
You beat me to it, Quiet Man. I suppose it must be one of the virtues of being quiet. :)

James had a cousin, Lady Arbella Stuart, another Scottish descendant of Henry VII but English-born. Exempt from the 1351 aliens statute, Arbella might be a serious contender.

The wild card was the Infanta Isabella, daughter of Philip II of Spain and married to her cousin the Archduke Albert, with whom, after 1599, she ruled over Spanish Flanders. In Armada year, 1588, Philip proclaimed that his daughter's descent from Edward III made her the rightful queen of England. Isabella was dangerously close at hand in Brussels, and the English were agitated by the possibility that she might re-assert that 1588 claim and urge English Catholics to rise and support her.
 
Ok, so Arabella becomes the heir of Elisabeth? But would she have become Queen of Scotland in 1589? It seems that she had a higher claim, but why was the heir presumptive James Hamilton, 3rd Earl of Arran? Could it lead to some kind of conflict for the succession?

His father being related to James II of Scotland was Mary's regent technically making him closest male heir to the throne at the time. Arbella might have been considered as a Scottish Queen as Hamilton was adjudged insane prior to the death of Dudley Mary's husband.

Wildcard here was Hamilton's brother John, possible Scottish civil war if he pressed his claim too.
 
I don't want to speculate because I don't know, but perhaps there are details of the Scottish law of succession that might explain how he takes precedence over Arabella, despite her being the apparent closer relation. Religion could have something to do with it. In any case, he's apparently insane by 1589, so I think Arabella would have the apparent advantage for the Scottish throne, at least.

However, considering it's sixteenth century Scotland you should presume that there will be a conflict for the throne, especially since this would involve yet another child ruler (I think Arabella is fourteen at the time).

One thing that might affect Arabella's succession to Elizabeth's throne is her marriage. She would be 28 by 1603. If she has married a Catholic, she would be having serious enough problems keeping the Scottish throne, much less calming the English enough to rule there. And there would still be some kind of rivalry with Mary Tudor's descendants for that succession.

Not insurmountable problems, but interesting ones.

Ok, so Arabella becomes the heir of Elisabeth? But would she have become Queen of Scotland in 1589? It seems that she had a higher claim, but why was the heir presumptive James Hamilton, 3rd Earl of Arran? Could it lead to some kind of conflict for the succession?
 
One last note on her Arabelliciousness.

The likely dominant figure in any court ruled by Arabella Stuart would probably be her grandmother, Bess of Hardwick. Bess, fabulously wealthy, immensely powerhungry, married four times, and not too shabby at the needlepoint, would probably be a powerhouse on the order of a Catherine de Medici. And she doesn't die until 1608, so we're talking plenty of time for her to influence events, especially before Elizabeth's death in 1603.

My favorite detail about Bess is that she was evidently summoned to London when it was discovered she had helped engineer the marriage that would produce Arabella without Elizabeth's permission. Bess's reaction? To ignore the summons, stay put, and I suppose work on the needlepoint. Evidently she had seen that particular game played before, knew how it usually ended, and basically just decided to sit it out. And suffered no apparent consequences.

Pretty stone cold, if you ask me.
 
His father being related to James II of Scotland was Mary's regent technically making him closest male heir to the throne at the time. Arbella might have been considered as a Scottish Queen as Hamilton was adjudged insane prior to the death of Dudley Mary's husband.

Wildcard here was Hamilton's brother John, possible Scottish civil war if he pressed his claim too.

If there is a Civil War, would Elisabeth support Arabella and send English troops, or the queen would just sit and see what happens?
 
If there is a Civil War, would Elisabeth support Arabella and send English troops, or the queen would just sit and see what happens?

Elizabeth would sit and see what happened as happened with Mary Queen of Scots, Elizabeth's foreign policy was very much isolationist save only in piracy and privateering and that was by private individuals (save with tacit royal consent).

Arrabella I believe would receive moral support were she to be a) Protestant and b) winning.
 
The succession would have almost certainly be disputed amongst the descendants of Princess Mary of Scotland daughter of James II - the senior heir was the Earl of Arran (James Hamilton) who died in 1575 leaving numerous descendants - his eldest son James (died1609) was insane, but his younger sons were all still alive and well including the eldest John 1st Marquess of Hamilton (and ancestor of the Dukes of Hamilton) and Lord Claud Hamilton (ancestor of the Dukes of Abercorn) - the Hamiltons had supported the Scots reformation and Knox and James as as younger man had a very interesting time of it - at times he was a candidate to marry both Elizabeth I and Mary before going mad thanks to his father's constant switching of sides in 1562.....as a mad man though he could have easily been placed on the throne and controlled by the Scots Nobles - he was undoubtedly the main heir - and the succession would have been secure under his brothers. He's the most likely Scots King as James VII in 1589. I would suspect that his brother John would have been named regent.

Lady Arabella Stuart did have a claim to the Scots throne - through her grandfather Matthew Stuart Earl of Lennox (descended from Princess Mary of Scotland's daughter Elizabeth Hamilton) and her grandmother Lady Elizabeth Douglas daughter of Margaret Tudor and therefore half sister to James IV. She was a closer heir to the throne of Scotland if you used proximity of blood - but that wasn't the accepted form of succession in 16th Century Scotland.

England is different in 1589 a strict reading of male preference primogeniture would mean - James VI (through his mother senior heir general of Henry VII after Elizabeth), Lady Arabella Stuart (next heir general of Henry VII through her grandmother Margaret Douglas), then the descendants of Mary Tudor youngest daughter of Henry VII

However under the succession terms of Henry VIII's will which excluded the descendants of his sister Margaret Queen of Scots - you have - Edward Seymourn (born 1561)and Thomas Seymour (born 1563) (grandsons of Lady Frances Brandon - but their mother Lady Catherine Grey's marriage was regarded as invalid by Elizabeth I barring them from the throne), then Lady Margaret Stanley (daughter of Lady Eleanor Brandon) and her sons Ferdinando Stanley and Edward Stanley.

Of the above Edward Seymour, Ferdinando Stanley and Edward Stanley were all married by 1589 and all had children. - Ferdinando predeceased his mother so his eldest daughter Anne born 1580 would on Elizabeth's death have been the senior heir to the throne under the terms of Henry VIII's will - However Elizabeth herself and her government had tended to just forget about the will of Henry VIII although it remained on the statutes book.

A solution that might have appealed to Cecil and other Elizabethan courtiers in 1589 might have been this -
1) Arabella declared heiress presumptive to Elizabeth I (either secretly or publicly) and married to John Hamilton (brother of the Scots heir James Hamilton) (he was much older than Arabella and had married Margaret Lyon in 1577 however their eldest surviving son wasn't born until 1589 so a divorce might have been an option) - with the ultimate intention that in time Arabella and John's children would inherit both crowns. One issue though - Arabella succeeds Elizabeth in 1603 as Queen Regnant her husband dies in 1604 - in 1609 their eldest son lets say James born around 1594 succeeds his uncle as James VII of Scotland - potential for unrest in Scotland though over who should be regent of Scotland during his minority!!!!

Another option for the English would be to promote the claims of Arabella to both thrones and marry her to her cousin Ludovic 2nd Duke of Lennox (in reality he married around 1589/90 but a suggestion that he marry Arabella had been made in around 1588 but it came to nothing) but Lennox's fathers friendship with James VI and his conversion from Catholicism to Calvinism meant the scots nobles had disliked him and distrusted him and that dislike might cause problems for them in pressing a joint claim to the Scots Throne.
2) English approach Lennox in 1589 - offering marriage to Arabella Stuart - and promise English support for their joint claim to the Scots throne. Arabella is recognised as Queen of Scots by a small proportion of the anti Hamilton nobility (also attracts some of the Catholic nobility as well who suspect she might be more sympathetic) - Lennox uses his links in France to gain some French support for their joint claim - Elizabeth's support is lukewarm at best as usual - money but no army - political stalemate in Scotland, possible victory by either side.

few other points:
Given Elizabeth's personal dislike for the late Duchess of Suffolk (Frances Brandon) it is highly unlikely that she would have preferred the Seymour claim at all even if she was prepared to declare them legitimate and I can't see her turning to the Countess of Derby and her sons either.

And for the record there's no clear evidence to Arabella's religion though she was certainly brought up as a protestant.
 
mcdnab, Thank you for unravelling that bit of family and succession law.

Actually, I almost want to think that Arabella is a Catholic because of the interest of different Catholic princes in marrying her.
 
If Arabella was thought to be Catholic either secretly or not then I think her chances would be extremely thin. The Scots would never crown a Catholic in 1589 (The Kirk wouldn't tolerate it under any circumstances)and by then Elizabeth's council would never contemplate a Catholic heir to England (they'd spent the last two decades trying to persuade her to get rid of one Catholic heir - Mary Stuart). Arabella's chances of marrying abroad to a Catholic Prince (and some did think about it) were poor as she was under Elizabeth's direct control (Elizabeth tended to use her as a pawn to ensure James VI behaved himself).
 
as mcdnab pointed out under Henry VIII's will Ann Stanley was Elizabeth I Heir, the shot at a England Scotland Personal-union was too much for Robert Cecil to pass up so he made James king, Elizabeth I never said who heir was in life or death, any way if the Hamilton's take the Scottish Throne they're not related to the Tudors, so can't take the Throne of England in 1603, the Hamilton are more likely to take power then Lady Arbella Stuart (though that'd be sick!) they are a very Powerful family in Scotland and are very Protestant, Arbella is a woman and her faith is up in the air, i doubt that Elizabeth I would help her take power and with out that she's doomed.

thusly in 1603 on the death of Elizabeth I Lady Ann Stanley is likely to become Queen Ann I, however as i said Elizabeth I Never named her Heir, which leaves England open to Infanta Isabella, Queen Ann I doesn't have what James I had, she wasn't a ruler before coming to the throne, a major Catholic rising may be in the cards
 
I think it is important to remember a few things about all of this

1) That the likely heir to the Scots throne is the senior Hamilton (or his younger non insane brother John)
2) That Elizabeth had spent much of her reign supressing her father's will it was by the 1590's pretty much a dead issue - and that whilst she consistantly refused to name an heir it doesn't mean she didn't have an opinon.
3) Through the 1590's there were two major challenges with regard the succession - shortly before his death Ferdinando Stanley was approached because of his family's known Catholic sympathies however he reported the approach to the Queen and then of course the Essex challenge to Elizabeth towards the end of the reign.
4) Arabella Stuart had a strong sense of her position in the succession and of her rights - when she was first taken to court in the late 1580's she was given the same precedence as a Princess of the Blood and it stayed with her as a child her grandmother insisted on her being addressed as Highness for example.
5) Arabella seems to have got involved in a plan to marry Edward Seymour (Catherine Grey's grandson) in around 1600 to 1602 or so - Elizabeth was informed of the plan and promptly forbade the match (she was informed of the plan by Seymour's grandfather who'd been imprisoned by Elizabeth firstly for his illegal marriage to Catherine Grey and again in the mid 90's when he tried to persuade her to recognise his marriage as having been valid thereby legitimating his sons). Arabella in reality married Edward Seymour's younger brother William without the consent of James VI and I and tried to flee the country she was arrested and died in the Tower in 1615 at 40.
6) Much depended on the view of the council during the 1590's - without James VI - they are faced with the same problem that Edward VI and Northumberland faced when trying to prevent Mary Tudor's accession in 1553 - the main heirs are female and unmarried by 1595 - Lady Arabella Stuart (only surviving heir of Margaret Tudor), Lady Anne Stanley and her two younger sisters (senior heir of Lady Eleanor Brandon) and then her uncle the Earl of Derby. The Stanley's are also known to have Catholic sympathies. The Seymour claim via Catherine Grey remained illegitimate - Edward Lord Beauchamp (only surviving son of Catherine Grey - his brother Thomas died childless in 1600), and his sons Edward, William and Francis and a daughter Honor.
7) Foreign Claimants - much has been said of the Infanta Isabella who Philip II had suggested as an English Queen had the armada turned out differently - her claim was minimal and by the time of Elizabeth's death she was pushing 40 (although she bore three children they all died in infancy) - Spain's bankruptcy in the late 1590's would have meant a second invasion attempt difficult and pretty unlikely.
8) Catholic reaction - its worth remembering that in England by the 1590's the vast majority on all religious sides were loyal to Elizabeth. Catholic rebellion on a large enough scale to unseat Elizabeth or any successor would have been surprising and would have been dependant on foreign aid which is unlikely at this period (Spain was skint, and Philip III was very different to Philip II, Henri IV of France was too busy consolidating his hold and would have been unwilling to depose a protestant Queen to replace her with a Spanish Catholic given his own protestant background.)


I've done a scenario on what i think might be the result of James VI's death in 1589 without a direct Stuart Heir - which is posted sep.
 
6) Much depended on the view of the council during the 1590's - without James VI - they are faced with the same problem that Edward VI and Northumberland faced when trying to prevent Mary Tudor's accession in 1553 - the main heirs are female and unmarried by 1595 - Lady Arabella Stuart (only surviving heir of Margaret Tudor), Lady Anne Stanley and her two younger sisters (senior heir of Lady Eleanor Brandon) and then her uncle the Earl of Derby. The Stanley's are also known to have Catholic sympathies. The Seymour claim via Catherine Grey remained illegitimate - Edward Lord Beauchamp (only surviving son of Catherine Grey - his brother Thomas died childless in 1600), and his sons Edward, William and Francis and a daughter Honor.

Lady Arabella Stuart had no Children in OTL, and didn't marry till she was 35, it isn't unlikely that she could die childless in TTL, Lady Anne Stanley on the hand had 5 children 4 of whom lived.
 
Well, Elizabeth and James had more than a little bit to do with that. At the point of the departure for the timeline, she would still be fifteen. And I think at Elizabeth's death she would be twenty-nine.

Lady Arabella Stuart had no Children in OTL, and didn't marry till she was 35, it isn't unlikely that she could die childless in TTL, Lady Anne Stanley on the hand had 5 children 4 of whom lived.
 
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