The Kaiser’s Gamble

The Kaiser’s Gamble is a working title, I really don’t know what to call this TL.

The Gist of this TL is that during the Belgan Congo Crisis of the 1900's, Germany intervienes, causing a later WWI, and different views on colonies to arise.
 
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King

The meeting was held in his private meeting room, but to call it a secret meeting place was stretching the truth a bit too much. If the two sentries were anything but a giveaway, the few but influential people entering the room would surely confirm that something important was happening inside. However, in this day and age privacy was the equivalent of secrecy, and of the small number of guests invited kept the secret a better kept one. As to what was to happen inside the room few of the “guests” had any indication, but they knew it was to be dramatic and important.

Kaiser Wilhelm II sat at the head of the small table in the surprisingly spartan room. The Kaiser himself was known for petty frivolities and obsessions of personal grandeur, however at the appropriate time he was known for his practicality. This was one of them. Sitting around the table were his three closest advisors and political allies. Bernhard von Bulow, the Chancellor sat to Wilhelm’s right. To the Kaiser’s left sat Alfred von Tirpitz, the father of the German navy, and across the table from Wilhelm sat Alfred von Schlieffen who represented the German Army. While the seating of Bulow was absolutely a political statement, the seating of the “Two Alfreds” was purely chance. The Kaiser’s well known benefaction of the Navy’s dramatic growth, at quite an expense, always prompted Tirpitz to come to any meeting with his patron quite a bit earlier than Schlieffen. Schlieffen himself looked haggard, he come late. “Sorry my Kaiser,” he said bowing “I had been caught up in our most recent project.” The last statement invoked a curious glance from both Burlow and Tirpitz. The Kaiser never kept much from them. This secret project with the Army was something unusual. They waited anxiously for the Kaiser to begin.

“Gentleman” the Kaiser pronounced “I have decided to cancel my trip to Morocco.” Ignoring the surprised look Bulow gave him, (the trip was supposed to be only two weeks out!) the Kaiser continued. “I have come across a better opportunity for the Reich.” Dramatically he flourished a newspaper onto the table. The headline screamed ATROCITIES IN THE CONGO! It was nearly a month old. Most of the men knew what the so called atrocities were, just what every empire, including their own, used to keep the native people under control. It was just fate that the Belgians had a particularly ruthless ruler. “As you very well know the Empire is without much of an empire at all, we are encircled by both Russia and France. The treaty of Berlin left us with a pitiful empire, smaller than the Portuguese!” his voice was now venom dripping with the wounded pride of a great Empire dominated by lesser ones. “We have the strongest Army in the world, and the second strongest navy only to the massive British! We deserve a colonial empire! The Americans denied us, the Europeans denied us, but we will not deny ourselves!”

“Tomorrow I will give a speech imploring Belgium to leave the Congo, for the betterment of the natives. If they do not leave in 48 hours I would like to count on your support wresting the Congo from the Belgians.” The Kaiser looked at his supporters. “There is another point to this plan I want you to consider, a week after hostilities begin I will sign an agreement with the Belgians, proposing that neither of our armies will clash in Europe.”

“You can count on my support” Bulow acknowledged. “I will marshal the Reichstag to support you with any laws required for that treaty to pass. Yet as to the aim of such a treaty I see no reason why we do not just conquer Belgium? And how in 48 hours will we get an Army half-way across the globe?”

“The treaty is simply because of two things: We do not need to bring Britain into this argument. And secondly we are supporting the natives against a dictatorial regime. It will look all the better for us. We will be liberators not conquerors” explained Kaiser Wilhelm.

“The Navy is completely up to the task” exclaimed Tirpitz “yet an army across the globe in 48 hours and up the Congo River you are asking almost too much of my ships and men!”

“That is for Schlieffen to explain” conceded the Kaiser ignoring the outburst from Tirpitz, Tirpitz was obviously jealous, anxious and, confused.
Schlieffen slowly stood up and pointed to a map of Africa on one of the walls. He took a pointer pointed to different portions of the map as he talked. “We will use the Congo’s rivers to our advantage. Our Schutztruppe will attack the posts along the Lukuga River, floating up on rented and requisitioned boats. They will raid until they meet the junction of the Congo River. Two months ago I sent a unit of engineers up to Lake Kinus, where they made a road to the Oso Lake.” He paused for effect; it was noticeable on both Tirpitz and Bulow’s faces. This plan had already been enacted behind their backs.

Schlieffen continued” From Oso Lake a second unit will float down the Congo River to the ocean, attacking and raiding. Both of these attacks are hit and run, simply buying us time for the navy to arrive with the rest of my troops. We will then enter a second phase attacking up and down the rivers simultaneously. The Belgians should give up quickly. The troops we will most likely encounter are mercenaries hired as thugs to attack the locals. Few of them will have experience fighting a real army and they should flee quickly.” He nodded to the Kaiser. “I just had gotten a telegraph saying that the road was completed last week and all of our troops are positioned and ready before the meeting.”

The Kaiser stood “I expect that you will need some time to iron out the particulars of the long term plans. I will retire now; you three may continue the discussion.” He picked up his hat and headed out the door. “I have a speech to give.”
 
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Well the Belgian guarantee of neutrality applied only to the mother country. No one was pledged to defend their colonies. The kaiser had best make it clear during the speech though that Germany will NOT violate Belgian territory in Europe.

France will without a doubt want to use this as a causus belli to go to war with Germany, but they will not act without England.

England's attitude is decisive as their navy can cut off the German fleet. If they stand by the Germans will definitely conquer the Belgian Congo within a year. If they intervene solely at sea they can defeat the Germans and humiliate them at realtively low cost in a limited war. If they want a full scale war they can bring in France and Russia and begin an early version of World war One.

I susopect that England will be very angry and protest, possibly begin sanctions, but stop short of military action as long as the Germans guarantee Belgium itself. This will however not make the Kaiser any friends as the whole world is going to view it simply as a strong nation robbing from a weak one.
 
What is they just sell the mouth of the Congo to Portugal, meaning that the Germans would need to invade from the east or risk war with Britain? I have also heard that the French had first dibs if the Belgians ever felt the need to leave the Congo.
 
Well the Belgian guarantee of neutrality applied only to the mother country. No one was pledged to defend their colonies. The kaiser had best make it clear during the speech though that Germany will NOT violate Belgian territory in Europe.

France will without a doubt want to use this as a causus belli to go to war with Germany, but they will not act without England.

England's attitude is decisive as their navy can cut off the German fleet. If they stand by the Germans will definitely conquer the Belgian Congo within a year. If they intervene solely at sea they can defeat the Germans and humiliate them at realtively low cost in a limited war. If they want a full scale war they can bring in France and Russia and begin an early version of World war One.

I susopect that England will be very angry and protest, possibly begin sanctions, but stop short of military action as long as the Germans guarantee Belgium itself. This will however not make the Kaiser any friends as the whole world is going to view it simply as a strong nation robbing from a weak one.

Actually the Belgium Congo was an oxymoron. It was Leopold's Congo not the state's.
 

Adler

Banned
Because of the attrocities and the fact that there were talks to take the colony the British hardly can go for war with Germany. In these days the Belgish were the "huns".

Adler
 
By 1900 there is no Belgian Congo only the Free congo state that Leopold bought with his personnal funds. The Belgian state refused to finance his littles advantures. It became Belgian Congo in 1909 Belgium was presured to annex it to stop the atrocities. Still it will not be taken really well and you might see Belgium fortifiying it's eastern borders.
 
The British were masters of making their acquisitions appear to be humanitarian acts. More than any other European Empire they really tried to present everything they did in the best possible light.

By comparison the German attitude often seemed to be much too aggressive and openly self serving. Could the Kaiser really dress this up as a humanitarian act to spare the locals rather than as a blatant land grab?

Given the history of German diplomacy (outside of Bismark) I find it very hard to imagine. The British might be able to pull it off but not the Germans.
 
While yes, most people will see through this as a shameless land grab, most governments I believe would be indifferent about the Germans taking over. Leopold II will only make a fool out of himself out of this event. He can't call up the Belgian army because it is not Belgian territory! it is HIS! And yes the Germans can not pull off "we are the good guys here" line. The point of the TL is people seeing through the White Man's Burden. Needless to say it will become quite different as times go on.
 
What is they just sell the mouth of the Congo to Portugal, meaning that the Germans would need to invade from the east or risk war with Britain? I have also heard that the French had first dibs if the Belgians ever felt the need to leave the Congo.

Wouldn't work.

The international treaties of the time made navigation through the African rivers free to all nations, with independence of who ruled the shores (or maybe that was just European ones, I can't remember).

And Portugal was going through severe financial trouble during the turn of the century anyway.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Perhaps the Germans could even propose a division of Congo, where the Germans take the lion share of the colony but give some scraps to appease France and Britain.
 
@ yourworstnightmare: that sounds reasonable, and probably a good move by germany do you think they would do such a manuever? perhaps call a second Berlin conference?
 
Perhaps the Germans could even propose a division of Congo, where the Germans take the lion share of the colony but give some scraps to appease France and Britain.

France had already been promised all of it, should Leopold not be able to have it. He would have sold it and pocketed a great many millions out of the deal. The Belgians also would not want one power to be holding a swath of land that would cut off their railway.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
But in this case it's more the Kaiser pressing for Leopold to give up the colony, somewhat like the Brits did OTL, with the exception that the Kaiser don't mean he should give it to the Belgian government, but rather the Kaiser want it himself. But as long as France and Britain don't support that Leopold won't be pressured enough to give up the colony, maybe give it to the Belgian government, but certainly not to the Kaiser. So the Kaiser need the support of France and Britain, and the only way to get that support is promising them parts of the Congo. If Britain, France and Germany together pressure Leopold to hand over the colony, he has no choice but to do so.
 
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