The Japanese take Darwin in World War II.

[Fearless Leader]

Darwin was the only Allied position he could be evacuated to by plane in March of 1942 due to range and lack of our bases with said range.

Even if MacArthur does stick around in the Philippines, he can still be evacuated via submarine. This will take longer than his OTL evacuation but not long enough to remove him completely from the picture. Whether he remains in the Philippines following the fall of Darwin is an open question. He might push and be pushed to assume command in Australia much earlier due to the political significance of the invasion of Australia.

 

[Gunner's_Quadrant]

That doesn't mean there are not alternate means of getting out of the Philippines. Originally he had planned to evacuate by submarine but changed his mind and left by PT-boat and air.
Once he gets to Mindanao, there are some other options.

 

[History Learner]

Even if MacArthur does stick around in the Philippines, he can still be evacuated via submarine. This will take longer than his OTL evacuation but not long enough to remove him completely from the picture. Whether he remains in the Philippines following the fall of Darwin is an open question. He might push and be pushed to assume command in Australia much earlier due to the political significance of the invasion of Australia.

If he's getting evacuated by Submarine, I personally wonder if he will still end up in Australia instead of Hawaii; was Freemantle or other bases even available in March?

 

[History Learner]

The fact that Darwin is roughly half the size of Madison, WI has a lot to do with it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darwin,_Northern_Territory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madison,_WisconsinMadison isn't exactly a big rail center either. There is simply no reason to run a big railroad to Darwin. If there were a need for it , it would be built.

Sure, but not in any relevant timespan. Late 1943 is probably the absolute earliest it could be finished, and this is talking about a single track line of limited capacity.

The shipment of planes will take a couple months or so. The distance between Los Angelos and Darwin, Australia is a little 7898 miles or 6,963 nautical miles. Even if the transports go at a mere 3 knots it would get there in 3 months and even WW2 transports go faster than that.

About six weeks is what convoys from the West Coast to Australia's East Coast averaged. That's part of the problem.

The airfields themselves can be built virtually overnight. All you need for a rudimentary airstrip is cement, a tent, a radio, a few big tanks for oil storage and an electrical generator. Of course, you will build it over time but it will do in a pinch. Building airfields quickly is something the Seabees did well.

That's going to be a big no chief. You've literally just established they have no logistics, lack an all weather air field, and have limited use thanks to no radar. This is the Australian outback we're talking about here.

 

[Colonel Grubb]

Then why did it take until 2004 to link to Darwin? Even to this day, there is only one rail line connecting Darwin to the rest of Australia through Alice Springs, with two spur lines branching off at Tennant Creek and Katherine.

I've already posted the reasons why, but I'll repeat them.

• During peacetime, it was easier, cheaper and quicker to export and supply Darwin from the sea than overland. The population of Darwin itself was tiny - in the 1933 Census there were 1,566 persons in Darwin and 3,209 in the rest of the Territory (noting this didn't count Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islanders).
• During the interwar period, it was a lack of capital and lack of agreement between Queensland and the Commonwealth over the prospects of economic returns during the worst economic crisis Australia had faced. It wasn't a lack of will or not seeing the economic and defence benefits. These benefits were heavily touted by successive Queensland governments right up to the beginning of the war.
• Immediately post war was about rebuilding and reconstructing the key routes, lines, plant and rolling-stock that had been badly run down during the war. The financial conditions that the Queensland network operated under was particularly inflexible.
• The Clapp Plan for properly integrated and upgrading Australian railways wasn't implemented due to, political Commonwealth vs State issues and bringing together enough Commonwealth funding for the vast project.
• By the late 1950s the defence arguments for such a line had been superseded and the peacetime economic arguments for the connection never quite reached a critical mass.
• The age of building lines to open up the land had largely passed - these lines were not really made to make money directly but as a government owned railway network to open up the economic potential of the interior.
• One of the biggest reasons why it took so long was government infighting, changing administrations and issues between the Territory, states and the Commonwealth.
• The North Australia Railway soldiered on to 76/77 until the mine at Frances Creek lost traffic and maintenance was withdrawn thereafter.

To this day, the only rail connection between Darwin and Queensland is the single line running from Mt. Isa to Tennant Creek.

What? No such line exists. Please show me a map with this line on it.

Absolutely not and any reading of the building process in the region shows this not to be the case; it took until 1944 just to get an all weather road built because of the local weather conditions.

Disagree. Reconstruction and tarring would have been a higher priority for men and resources given ITTL situation, and not just by the OTL Civil Construction Corps, but the army construction and engineering forces are going to be used to support their advance.

Locomotives aren't a railway, nor does Mac saying something make it true. As I've said previously, them going for a road instead of a railway speaks volumes.

The Australian government demurred because it could divert priorities and as the Japanese threat was being pushed back it lessened in OTL importance.

 

[Johnrankins]

Sure, but not in any relevant timespan. Late 1943 is probably the absolute earliest it could be finished, and this is talking about a single track line of limited capacity.



About six weeks is what convoys from the West Coast to Australia's East Coast averaged. That's part of the problem.



That's going to be a big no chief. You've literally just established they have no logistics, lack an all weather air field, and have limited use thanks to no radar. This is the Australian outback we're talking about here.

Rail and truck. You might need halftraks to do it for a while but the US had a lot of those. Once a regular road is built, which will be quicker than the railroad, you an go straight truck.

In other words a month and a half, like I said months not years. 3-6 months is my guess. It could be quicker.

Yep, that is what it starts out as, a limited use airstrip. You build it up over weeks , possibly months if need be.

 

[Chris Triangle]

While a railroad will help keep the supply line in good order over the long term, the military force should be capable moving well in advance of the railhead's actual progress so it needn't necessarily be completed to serve its purpose.

As for the railroad itself, I see no reason to build it double tracked. Regarding gauge, I had a debate on this forum a while ago about what gauge should have been used. I argued that narrow gauge (3' 6") would have been the way to go thanks to the greater speed and lower cost of laying the track. Additionally, the existing track from South Australia to Alice Springs was already narrow gauge and would have to be converted to standard. Others were arguing that narrow gauge wouldn't be sufficient but the loading gauge for narrow gauge track is more than 9 feet wide while a Matilda tank, which would rank among the larger pieces of equipment needed, is 8 feet 6 inches wide and a QF 25 pounder field gun is only 7 feet wide.

 

[Gunner's_Quadrant]

If he's getting evacuated by Submarine, I personally wonder if he will still end up in Australia instead of Hawaii; was Freemantle or other bases even available in March?

i must ask, how much of the history of the Philippines and DEI campaigns have you read? You don't sound very knowledgable.
It had already been decided to base MacArthur out of Australia before he was ordered to leave Corregidor. This was done for both political and military reasons. FDR didn't trust Mac and wanted him out of the limelight as much as possible. His seniority would have made him senior to any Allied Commander in any theater better to let him stay in what was supposed to be a backwater, the Southwest Pacific. The US needed a senior Army general in theater and Mac fit the bill.

 

[History Learner]

I've already posted the reasons why, but I'll repeat them.

You're missing the point; could Australia and the Americans build it? Yes, but not in any reasonable timeframe in part for several of the reasons you outline, particularly cost.

What? No such line exists. Please show me a map with this line on it.

My mistake; saw the railway to Mt. Isa in this map and confused the highway with a minor rail line.

Disagree. Reconstruction and tarring would have been a higher priority for men and resources given ITTL situation, and not just by the OTL Civil Construction Corps, but the army construction and engineering forces are going to be used to support their advance.

How much spare materials and how many units does Australia have on hand to do this? They can't start work until the Fall of 1942 either, given the atrocious weather of that summer.

The Australian government demurred because it could divert priorities and as the Japanese threat was being pushed back it lessened in OTL importance.

And the same issue of diverting priorities still stands.

Rail and truck. You might need halftraks to do it for a while but the US had a lot of those. Once a regular road is built, which will be quicker than the railroad, you an go straight truck.

The road don't open until 1944 and could only move about 1,400 tons a day from what I understand; that's only enough for one division and two air wings. We're also talking about needing to commit thousands of trucks (Not halftracks, that'd be even worse), which isn't going to happen until, again, late 1943.

In other words a month and a half, like I said months not years. 3-6 months is my guess. It could be quicker.

No, the overland route collapsed due to the Moonson in the Summer of 1942 and literally disintegrated.

Yep, that is what it starts out as, a limited use airstrip. You build it up over weeks , possibly months if need be.

So in other words of no use and completely impotent against Japanese air attacks in a week or less.

 

[History Learner]

i must ask, how much of the history of the Philippines and DEI campaigns have you read? You don't sound very knowledgable.
It had already been decided to base MacArthur out of Australia before he was ordered to leave Corregidor. This was done for both political and military reasons. FDR didn't trust Mac and wanted him out of the limelight as much as possible. His seniority would have made him senior to any Allied Commander in any theater better to let him stay in what was supposed to be a backwater, the Southwest Pacific. The US needed a senior Army general in theater and Mac fit the bill.

Yes, I'm well aware of that but that doesn't invalidate my point if the realities on the ground prevent Mac from going straight to Australia as IOTL.

 

[Chris Triangle]

Have we even established what kind of Japanese force the Australians are coming up against here?

Or for that matter, how much the Japanese are going to be willing to throw into this battle...

The Australians might not need an overwhelmingly huge force to win. Their Matilda tanks and superior available airpower should be a very potent battle-winners and the Japanese force would most likely have already been harassed by sporadic raids and commando type operations.

 

[Riain]

Not quite accurate. MacArthur reverted to his 4-star rank in December 1941, he had been a 4-star general while Chief of Staff of the Army and his seniority would be based off when he first assumed the rank in 1930. He will be considered the senior general in theater over Wavell. That was the problem that FDR faced when considering what to do with Mac, wherever he went he would be the senior general/flag officer. Best to let him start in the relative backwater of the Southwest Pacific.

Interesting, I've asked around and have been told that Temporary rank doesn't give seniority if/when the person reaches that rank substantially. When mac was recalled to service in June 41 it was as a 2 star, he was promoted to 3 star the following day so was a substantive 3 star for 6 months rather than 'reverting' to his Temporary and Retired 4 star rank when he was recalled.

In any case if a British 4 star was also in Australia the long standing defense arrangements would be in place and mac would struggle to usurp them.

 

[Johnrankins]

The road don't open until 1944 and could only move about 1,400 tons a day from what I understand; that's only enough for one division and two air wings. We're also talking about needing to commit thousands of trucks (Not halftracks, that'd be even worse), which isn't going to happen until, again, late 1943.

So in other words of no use and completely impotent against Japanese air attacks in a week or less.

The road didn't open until 1944 because it wasn't a priority. The Allies had an actual war to fight and building a road to Darwin was very low on its priority list. Same thing with amount moved. The Wallies aren't going to send huge numbers of trucks and halftraks where they aren't needed.

Not at all, the emergency airstrips would soon be built up. Within a week at most, you would have radar and some AA guns. Supplies are simply flown in because it is an airport. Seabees put up airstrips fast!

 

[History Learner]

The road didn't open until 1944 because it wasn't a priority. The Allies had an actual war to fight and building a road to Darwin was very low on its priority list. Same thing with amount moved. The Wallies aren't going to send huge numbers of trucks and halftraks where they aren't needed.

You're missing the point. There simply isn't the ability to open the road until sometime in 1943 in at the earliest because:

1. Construction is impossible until the fall.
2. You'd have to have sufficient materials and manpower on hand to build it.
3. It's a distance of 930 miles to Darwin. Even handwaving the Monsoon weather and magically giving the Allies the ability to begin immediate construction on March 1st and somehow achieve a rate of 5 miles a day, the earliest it could be completed is September.

Not at all, the emergency airstrips would soon be built up. Within a week at most, you would have radar and some AA guns. Supplies are simply flown in because it is an airport. Seabees put up airstrips fast!

In February of 1942, there are 17 heavy AA guns in all of Australia and no Radar sets, or at least none that can be used for small airfields. Because you don't have an all weather airfield or sufficient capacity/ability, you can't fly in supplies, so you'll have to airdrop. Problem is, there isn't enough transportation craft in theater for that nor can they air drop the supplies you need in the quantities you need. In short, it ain't going to happen. The earliest you could get something going is at Alice Springs in the fall, and that's going to take several weeks to get something useful going. From there, you have to leapfrog up the Outback.

 

[Zheng He]

One thing that will happen is the 16th and 17th Brigades of the 6th Australian Division that went to Ceylon for several months OTL will go straight to Australia with the 19th Brigade. Given British fears that the Japanese would invade Ceylon, this will cause an interesting adjustments on their part.

 

[Chris Triangle]

One thing that will happen is the 16th and 17th Brigades of the 6th Australian Division that went to Ceylon for several months OTL will go straight to Australia with the 19th Brigade. Given British fears that the Japanese would invade Ceylon, this will cause an interesting adjustments on their part.

Well, if they fool the British into doing that, then it's a Japanese win because what they would need to invade at this point is anything East of Java and North of Australia that they have not taken as long as there is any reasonable chance of capturing it.

 

[Fearless Leader]

If he's getting evacuated by Submarine, I personally wonder if he will still end up in Australia instead of Hawaii; was Freemantle or other bases even available in March?

I'm not sure what you mean by "available" but given that the USN moved there on March 1st I'd wager that the infrastructure was well in place by mid-February Theoretically there doesn't even need to be a dock open, Mac and company could just take a dingy and row, sorry *be rowed* to shore.

On a separate note. From what I remember of the Japanese invasion plans, they planned to take and hold Darwin but weren't going to go that far south. They were certainly going to stop well short of Katherine NT. So keep in mind that there is a railway from Larrimah, NT to Katherine already in place. There are also airfields at Daly Waters NT and Katherine NT which were used in OTL and can be/were expanded among others.

I also wonder if the Stuart Highway will be allowed to deteriorate as much as it did in OTL. Unlike OTL in TTL, it's going to be the primary logistical lifeline to a (politically) vital military front. If the Japanese invade in February, the Allies months of good weather to use the road and begin work on improving its durability before the monsoon season starts. Sure construction will have to resume in the fall but I highly doubt that they're going to be starting from scratch. The same thing goes for railway construction.

I also highly doubt that the Japanese are going to be pouring large numbers of troops into Darwin in 1942 due to strategic concerns elsewhere and the poor port facilities on Darwin. The more I think about it, the more I think that the Japanese position in Darwin is going to be extremely weak. Their occupation of the Top End is going to be focused on Darwin proper and the Stuart Highway/Railway. Given that the IJA is going to kick and scream against any allocations of troops/assets into the region, I highly doubt that many if any motor vehicles are going to be sent in TTL. The garrison force is going to have to make use of whatever they can capture and given the notoriously poor quality of Japanese support staff during WWII, I highly doubt that these captured vehicles/locomotives are going to last that long. A lack of motor vehicle transport is going to severely limit Japanese force projection outside of the immediate environs of Darwin itself. I doubt it's going to take much to push the Japanese to the coast, retaking Darwin is going to be an entirely different prospect.

There's also the very real possibility that the Japanese decide to cut their losses and evacuate/abandon Darwin at some point instead of pouring resources in for a protracted fight.

 

[Zheng He]

Well, if they fool the British into doing that, then it's a Japanese win because what they would need to invade at this point is anything East of Java and North of Australia that they have not taken as long as there is any reasonable chance of capturing it.

Sure and there are two possibilities:

1. The Japanese take Darwin and the British feel there is less of a threat to Ceylon, especially since this may well butterfly away OPERATION C since the KB will likely be busy covering the invasion of Darwin.

2. The Japanese take Darwin, further feeding fears that the Japanese cannot be stopped causing the British to transfer a division from somewhere to Ceylon because they think that may be next.

I am liking the idea of a TL where the Japanese take Darwin and the Allies pursue a strategy back to the DEI and the Philippines across Northern Australia. Maybe that will be my next TL. A lot of you all have brought up some interesting points.

 

[Chris Triangle]

Sure and there are two possibilities:

1. The Japanese take Darwin and the British feel there is less of a threat to Ceylon, especially since this may well butterfly away OPERATION C since the KB will likely be busy covering the invasion of Darwin.

2. The Japanese take Darwin, further feeding fears that the Japanese cannot be stopped causing the British to transfer a division from somewhere to Ceylon because they think that may be next.

I am liking the idea of a TL where the Japanese take Darwin and the Allies pursue a strategy back to the DEI and the Philippines across Northern Australia. Maybe that will be my next TL. A lot of you all have brought up some interesting points.

Yeah, I'm definitely intrigued by the scenario. Let me know if you decide to have a go at it. I would be willing to help.

 

[Chris Triangle]

Another thought: IIRC the Australians had been preparing units which included Aborigines to engage in coast watching and eventually guerilla warfare in the event of a Japanese invasion. Given what happened in OTL in Timor there's a good likelihood that the Japanese are going to have to deal with significant partisan/commando attacks during their occupation of Darwin. This in conjunction with aerial attacks and submarine activity is going to make their occupation increasingly difficult as the war progresses.

It's a near certainty, IMO. And they will be highly motivated and difficult for the Japanese to deal with which will hurt the Japanese morale while stories of the splits of the boys in the Outback will boost morale in Australia and the rest of the allied powers will take notice as well. If they are sufficiently successful in providing resistance, I wonder if it might be possible to convince the Japanese to withdraw like the did in the Aleutians before the expected major battle for Darwin even happens.