The Japanese invading the United States during world war 2

No matter what, the war was lost for them by the 1930s, but what if

Having a civil war of some sort in the thirties is the only way I see.

I know that as things stood by the 1930s, the war was lost for the Japanese. There is no way they could have ever won that war. Even if by some miracle for them, even if they won the battle of Midway and Coral Sea and totally destroyed the American ships, they would still lose the war.

So, what would have to change to make them a much more powerful nation that could sustain a war against the US as equals.

A thought just occurred to me. They had invaded China in the 20s and had annexed Korea in 1910, what if those occupations were good. What if, instead of acting like brutal cruel occupiers, their occupation forces were good and just, really acted like Liberators to free them from the corrupt west and the two nations decided to act together as one when war came

as inconceivable as that all is, but it is considered one of histories lost opportunities.
 
I know that as things stood by the 1930s, the war was lost for the Japanese. There is no way they could have ever won that war. Even if by some miracle for them, even if they won the battle of Midway and Coral Sea and totally destroyed the American ships, they would still lose the war.

So, what would have to change to make them a much more powerful nation that could sustain a war against the US as equals.

A thought just occurred to me. They had invaded China in the 20s and had annexed Korea in 1910, what if those occupations were good. What if, instead of acting like brutal cruel occupiers, their occupation forces were good and just, really acted like Liberators to free them from the corrupt west and the two nations decided to act together as one when war came

as inconceivable as that all is, but it is considered one of histories lost opportunities.

If the United States implodes b/c a civil war (which is possible), they can't stop Japan from taking the Pacific islands including Alaska. MAYBE they could take over cities on the west coast (San Fransisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland, ect) depending on how bad the civil war is. If they advance any further the factions would likely unite to push them out.
 

CalBear

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I don't know, it was a library book and I was too lazy to renew it. I kinda stopped reading halfway. Probably though. Mr. Conroy sometimes sacrificed facts in order to make a good story.

Sometimes?

He makes Turtledove look like a rigorous historian.

Very successful fiction writer, strong emphasis on "fiction".
 

Geon

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Help from Germany

Talking about a Japanese invasion one factor needs to be considered. Namely, the Germans and Italians are also part of the alliance. They're aid might not mean a victory but might complicate things for the Allies. Possible examples: A more successful operation Pastorius. German U-Boats shelling offshore oil wells or shelling refineries on the Gulf Coast, or even a few commando raids by submarine by the Germans in conjunction with any Japanese attempt.

In fact, that is an interesting option now that I think of it. We've talked a lot about an outright invasion. What about raids with small squads along the West Coast to induce panic?

Geon
 

CalBear

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If the United States implodes b/c a civil war (which is possible), they can't stop Japan from taking the Pacific islands including Alaska. MAYBE they could take over cities on the west coast (San Fransisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland, ect) depending on how bad the civil war is. If they advance any further the factions would likely unite to push them out.
A Civil War when?

Even if the ACW had resulted in a Confederate victory (near ASB in itself) the result would have been TWO massively armed states glowering at each other while in intense competition, with the USA expanding to both coasts (California was already a state) and the CSA likely expanding into Mexico and the Caribbean.

The only way this scenario works, without a POD that makes the very existence of the U.S. unlikely, is if you have a series of geologic disasters occurring simultaneously (massive quakes on the full length of the Aleutian Megathrust, San Andreas fault, Cascadia subduction zone, New Madrid Fault system, along with a major eruption out of the Yellowstone mega volcano or a La Palma collapse) that devastates North America. Of course, since several of those events would also cause massive damage IN JAPAN due to huge tsunamis generated by the quakes (especially the Cascadia) that probably makes the issue moot.
 

Geon

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A Civil War when?

Even if the ACW had resulted in a Confederate victory (near ASB in itself) the result would have been TWO massively armed states glowering at each other while in intense competition, with the USA expanding to both coasts (California was already a state) and the CSA likely expanding into Mexico and the Caribbean.

The only way this scenario works, without a POD that makes the very existence of the U.S. unlikely, is if you have a series of geologic disasters occurring simultaneously (massive quakes on the full length of the Aleutian Megathrust, San Andreas fault, Cascadia subduction zone, New Madrid Fault system, along with a major eruption out of the Yellowstone mega volcano or a La Palma collapse) that devastates North America. Of course, since several of those events would also cause massive damage IN JAPAN due to huge tsunamis generated by the quakes (especially the Cascadia) that probably makes the issue moot.

Calbear

What about a civil war that occurred around 1933 or 34 as the result of the Great Depression? I recall there was a very good TL about that on this site not long ago. What if FDR had chosen not to run and a less capable individual took over. Polarizing forces on both side of the political field start to pull the country apart which is seen as a sign of weakness by the Axis?

However, I do agree a much earlier POD is needed for Japan to have the logistics for a major invasion. But what about submarine launched commando raids (see above message)?

Geon
 
A Civil War when?

Even if the ACW had resulted in a Confederate victory (near ASB in itself) the result would have been TWO massively armed states glowering at each other while in intense competition, with the USA expanding to both coasts (California was already a state) and the CSA likely expanding into Mexico and the Caribbean.

The only way this scenario works, without a POD that makes the very existence of the U.S. unlikely, is if you have a series of geologic disasters occurring simultaneously (massive quakes on the full length of the Aleutian Megathrust, San Andreas fault, Cascadia subduction zone, New Madrid Fault system, along with a major eruption out of the Yellowstone mega volcano or a La Palma collapse) that devastates North America. Of course, since several of those events would also cause massive damage IN JAPAN due to huge tsunamis generated by the quakes (especially the Cascadia) that probably makes the issue moot.

No, in the 1930s. If you have a worse Great Depression, more do nothing (or do bad) conservatives in office, and certinly no FDR. It's very possible for a civil war to break out with a good catalyst, like a hung electoral collage between right and left wing radicals.
 

CalBear

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No, in the 1930s. If you have a worse Great Depression, more do nothing (or do bad) conservatives in office, and certinly no FDR. It's very possible for a civil war to break out with a good catalyst, like a hung electoral collage between right and left wing radicals.

You need a much, MUCH different U.S. political scene, dating back decades, possibly a century. There was never a serious concern about even an insurrection (excluding the rather asinine Business Plot which was, to all appearances more a pie-in-the-sky idea floated by a couple multimillionaires than anything of actual substance). Rather like the scenario in the UK during the 1930s there was simply no underlying political situation that would provide a base for a serious revolution/civil war.
 
You need a much, MUCH different U.S. political scene, dating back decades, possibly a century. There was never a serious concern about even an insurrection (excluding the rather asinine Business Plot which was, to all appearances more a pie-in-the-sky idea floated by a couple multimillionaires than anything of actual substance). Rather like the scenario in the UK during the 1930s there was simply no underlying political situation that would provide a base for a serious revolution/civil war.

I say that a PoD of 1927/8 should do it. Like have Coolidge run for another term. There were concerns at the time of revolutions and dictators, and that was OTL. It's relativity easy to make a civil war happen in the US. Change the right things, kill the right people ect.
 
Unless we're in the ASB forum, you pretty much would need a complete collapse of the United States - civil war, anarchy, whatever it takes to completely eliminate any ability at significant armed resistance.

Hmm no WW2 as we know it. ATL WW2 starts with a nuclear exchange between the US/UK alliance and soviet russia.
 

jahenders

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I mean totally winning. When I was young, I saw a show on TV about an alternate history where the the US suffered a string of total defeats during world war two and only fought the Japanese off on the shores of California and Los Angeles. The Japanese were stopped there. The Show centered around a few people trying to reset the time line. But that show stuck with me and I keep wondering how that would be possible.
What would have to change to give the Japanese that kind of power where they destroy the US naval fleet instead of the other way around.

Then have the capacity to carry a massive number of troops across the pacific to land them in Los Angeles.

What would have to change and where. I know the PODs may have to go way back, maybe even during the Japanese Civil War that disposed the Tokagawa Shogunate and place the Emperor back in power
I hope you all dont think this is a stupid question, maybe it is

Certainly wasn't even remotely in their reach IOTL -- Hawaii was a big stretch for them.

You'd need a combination of MUCH more severe US lack of preparation and different Japanese development and focus.

For the US, perhaps no carriers and fewer battleships, less development in long range aviation (bombers esp.).

For Japan, you'd need more focus on long-range efforts, need to have them acquire some bases in Central Pacific, etc.
 
I know that as things stood by the 1930s, the war was lost for the Japanese. There is no way they could have ever won that war. Even if by some miracle for them, even if they won the battle of Midway and Coral Sea and totally destroyed the American ships, they would still lose the war.

So, what would have to change to make them a much more powerful nation that could sustain a war against the US as equals.

A thought just occurred to me. They had invaded China in the 20s and had annexed Korea in 1910, what if those occupations were good. What if, instead of acting like brutal cruel occupiers, their occupation forces were good and just, really acted like Liberators to free them from the corrupt west and the two nations decided to act together as one when war came

as inconceivable as that all is, but it is considered one of histories lost opportunities.

China was a backwater in the 30's. Korea wasn't much better in terms of industry, takes a lot of money and time to develop a country to something comparable too the US. Twenty years simply won't cut it and the Chinese are NEVER going to accept playing a subordinate role to Japan. Japan in the 30's was a lunatic country led by people who were not rational, because rational leaders don't try invading and annexing all your neighbors, especially when they are 10 times your size. Planning to invade a nation like the US is really stupid.
 
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Talking about a Japanese invasion one factor needs to be considered. Namely, the Germans and Italians are also part of the alliance. They're aid might not mean a victory but might complicate things for the Allies. Possible examples: A more successful operation Pastorius. German U-Boats shelling offshore oil wells or shelling refineries on the Gulf Coast, or even a few commando raids by submarine by the Germans in conjunction with any Japanese attempt.

In fact, that is an interesting option now that I think of it. We've talked a lot about an outright invasion. What about raids with small squads along the West Coast to induce panic?

Geon

Forget the Italians. They have nothing that can reach the USA, and they're way out of their depth just dealing with the Commonwealth forces in the Mediterranean. They don't have anything spare to send across the Atlantic.

The Germans could do it, although it would be a big diversion of effort from more pressing problems. If it somehow caused a proportionately greater diversion of effort by the US, however, it might be worthwhile. I doubt that a few shellings by U-boats would be enough though, and raids would be very difficult logistically.

Over on the West coast, as mentioned the Japanese don't have many platforms that can even reach the USA, far less do it undetected. They do have some big submarines with a good range, but they suffer from a lack of striking power. A few floatplanes with the Rising Sun on them bombing something obvious might create a panic, although you probably won't get the aircraft back (or maybe the submarine, either).
For the Japanese there's also a doctrinal issue, in that the IJN were focused on trying to get "the decisive battle" with the US fleet. This wouldn't help achieve that end, and in fact if it achieves anything at all it's likely to get the US to pull resources back to defend against future raids - ie: away from where the Japanese can get at them. They did have plans to attack the Panama Canal, though, so that isn't an insurmountable obstacle.

Since none of the Axis powers can actually achieve anything substantial by doing this for real, I think their best bet is to make it look as if they could - perform fake insertions of commandos, attempt raids on things, place "abandoned" supply dumps, and so on. This would have to be over wide areas and keep on occurring over a long time, to make it seem that there is a genuine threat. The problem is that this would require a genuine effort, and tie up a good proportion of the very few long-range Axis assets. It would be more like a generalised intelligence operation than anything particularly military, and I'm not sure any of the Axis powers have the kind of intelligence services that could a) come up with something like this, and b) control the amount of resources necessary to sustain it. Its certainly a major undertaking, and would have to fit into a wider strategy... which again is something of a problem for them.
 
Japan could never have successfully invaded the US mainland in WW2. Absolutely never. The truth is that to invade the US would have first and foremost required far more manpower than Japan could ever hope to muster, especially with the bulk of their land forces deployed in China. To do so would also require the IJN to have complete control of the Pacific; a major defeat of the USN isn't going to cut, Japan needs to be able to supply this fictitious million+ man army in the US west coast from across the pacific, this means that they need a forward supply base (probably in Hawaii) and complete control of the sea-lanes just to be able to ship that many supplies. Again this isnt going to happen, for the simple fact that the USN is growing monstrously quickly. The Americans are building 10 warships for every one the Japanese are. Even if the famous battle of Midway was in this ATL a complete reversal (lets say all the American carriers were sunk while ll the Japanese carriers survived), the USN would have recovered and reached aircraft carrier parity by 1943 and have built a 2:1 advantage by 1944. Simply put even in absolutely ideal situations the Japanese really have no hope of winning a war of attrition with the US. Take a look at the chart in this source showing the estimated war-making capability of each nation in 1937:

http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

Indeed, Japan is not only dwarfed b the US, but by Germany, the USSR and UK as well.

So in conclusion: No, niet, nada, aint gunna happen!
 
Even if it's possible to jigger around enough to make an invasion possible, you're still lacking motivation. Making the US weak enough for an OTL Japanese to attack the West Coast (note attack, not make conquering invasion) means at the OTL motivation for the attack on the US in the first place is gone. A US that weak is highly unlikely to be imposing embargoes that seriously threaten the Japanese economy.
 
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